NHL conference final preview: Goalie Confidence Index, key matchups, predictions
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The conference final round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs is upon us, and just as everyone predicted, it’s the Carolina Hurricanes matching up with the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference, with the Vegas Golden Knights squaring off against the Dallas Stars in the West.
There is no shortage of superstar wattage on display — with future Hall of Famers skating in each series — nor an absence of captivating storylines.
To help get you up to speed before the puck drops on Game 1 of the East matchup Thursday night, we’re bringing you a mega-preview, breaking down each team in five different categories and offering our predictions on which clubs will head to the Stanley Cup Final.
Note: Kristen Shilton previewed the Eastern Conference teams, while Ryan S. Clark previewed the two clubs from the West.
Eastern Conference
How they got here: Defeated New York Islanders, 4-2; defeated New Jersey Devils, 4-1.
Goalie confidence rating: 8/10
Carolina’s goaltending has been (mostly) superb in the postseason. The lone exception was Game 3 against the Devils, when Frederik Andersen was pulled after giving up four goals on 12 shots.
That blemish aside, the Hurricanes’ crease has been well maintained. Andersen is 5-0 (since his Game 3 replacement — rookie Pyotr Kochetkov — was tagged with the Game 3 loss), with a .931 save percentage, while Antti Raanta is 3-2 with a .906 SV%. Carolina boasts a dialed-in defense (more on them later), which helps the team’s goaltending shine, but the Hurricanes should have no concerns in that area heading into the next round.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
It’s easy to preach about the importance of balance and playing as the coveted “five-man unit” attacking the opposition on all fronts. Well, Carolina actually showcases those exact attributes nightly.
The Hurricanes are no one-trick pony. They don’t solely depend on stars to create their opportunities. Through 11 playoff games, Carolina has 14 different goal scorers — and no one with more than five markers — with contributions spread out evenly on both sides of the puck. The Hurricanes seemingly embrace any style of play — tight-checking or more wide-open — and have found success in both. A team this multifaceted would make any opponent nervous.
Players who will be key to the series
Carolina lost Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty to injury during the regular season — and Teuvo Teravainen in the first round — which opened the door for other forwards to emerge. Jordan Martinook was spectacular against the Devils, producing 10 points in five games. To think Carolina put him on waivers in October; now he is the team’s co-leader in playoff points. Do-everything forward Sebastian Aho has been strong throughout the postseason, registering five goals and 10 points.
Scoring is at an increasing premium the deeper the playoffs go, and being able to rely on its best players to support its depth contributions gives Carolina an ideal recipe to keep advancing. On the back end, Brent Burns has been leading the way with typically strong defensive play and timely offensive additions (he can still feather a puck from the blue line with flair). This season has been a personal storm surge for the always-interesting veteran.
Player who needs to step up
Jesperi Kotkaniemi began to come alive in the second round. What Carolina must want now is more, please. Kotkaniemi scored three goals in the Hurricanes’ first two games against the Devils, and assisted on Jesper Fast‘s overtime winner in Game 5 that put Carolina into the Eastern Conference final. Those are all positive things. But the Hurricanes will need Kotkaniemi at his defensive best in this next round, too.
Kotkaniemi should also channel that newfound scoring confidence into sending more shots on net (he’s taken only 18 in the postseason thus far) and he’s at just 37.4% in the faceoff circle (despite taking the second-most draws for Carolina in the playoffs). Kotkaniemi can provide more; he’s proven that. Now is the time to take his game over the top.
The Hurricanes aren’t just defensive darlings — they’re downright smothering
Burns? He’s still got it. Jaccob Slavin has been exceptional (and he’s plus-14!). Brett Pesce is making contributions. The Hurricanes are highly effective at turning teams back through the neutral zone and forcing shooters to the outside because of their depth on the back end. It just flows.
Coach Rod Brind’Amour hasn’t had to overwork anyone either, clearly indicative of the trust he has in the six skaters he’s had on patrol there through the postseason. And, the blueliners aren’t afraid to chip in offensively, collecting eight goals and 27 points in 11 postseason games. That’s a scary stat for Florida.
How they got here: Defeated Boston Bruins, 4-3; defeated Toronto Maple Leafs, 4-1
Goalie confidence rating: 9/10
Sergei Bobrovsky is back on the case this postseason — and turning back the clock with some vintage Bobrovsky performances. The Panthers’ netminder is 7-2 in the playoffs, with a .918 save percentage and 2.82 goals-against average.
To think Florida didn’t even start Bobrovsky in Game 1 against the Bruins. Instead, it was Alex Lyon — a late, great regular-season storyline for the Panthers — manning the Panthers’ crease early. But when he began to struggle, Bobrovsky stepped in seamlessly and continues to be Florida’s backbone. He’s also kept improving throughout the playoffs; in the Panthers’ second-round series against Toronto, Bobrovsky was a cool 4-1 with a .943 SV% and 1.89 GAA. Carolina’s shooters should prepare accordingly for Bobrovsky at his best.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
Florida defies the odds, and expectations. The Panthers weren’t supposed to be here — not in the playoffs at all, and then certainly not escaping the first round against Boston or downing the Maple Leafs in Round 2. Whatever label Florida has been given, it has thrown off. Whatever limits have been placed on the Panthers, they have surpassed.
Florida embodies the one-game-at-a-time cliche. This is not a team that appears overwhelmed, panicked or even slightly unsure of itself. The Panthers just play. Their roster is deep across the board, and they’ve proven they can win high-scoring contests as easily as defense-driven ones. No team has matured this year like the Florida Panthers. We’ll learn if they’re ready for the next step against Carolina.
Players who will be key to the series
Carolina plays a tight defensive game. Florida will need to match up well there, which puts Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad in the spotlight.
Montour is having an exceptional breakout year, collecting 73 points in the regular season and adding six goals and nine points in 12 postseason tilts — all while maintaining a locked-in focus on his defensive duties. Ditto for Ekblad, who has patrolled the Panthers’ blue line for years hoping for the opportunity the team has right now.
Shutting down the Hurricanes’ top strikers will be priority one for the Panthers, then it will be up to their stable of scorers — from Matthew Tkachuk to Carter Verhaeghe to Sam Bennett — to do what they’ve done all postseason and score the timely goals. But those certainly won’t come easily in the series ahead.
Player who needs to step up
Aleksander Barkov sets the standard in Florida. That distinction has never been more critical than right now. Barkov has had a fine playoffs so far, with two goals and nine points in 12 games. He’s shown a typically strong two-way game, but could pump up a lagging 48.3% success rate in the faceoff dot. Basically, Barkov has to be that No. 1 shutdown center who can do it all for the Panthers for a full series.
It’s felt as though Barkov is building toward a truly dominant run, and Carolina might be a good matchup for him to put all the elite elements of his game on display. Like Ekblad, Barkov has waited a long time for Florida to be in this position; this is his moment to take control.
Can Panthers coach Paul Maurice pull off a storybook season?
When Florida was flailing, it was Maurice — in his first season with the club — who shouldered blame. Why hadn’t the Panthers stuck with Andrew Brunette after their Presidents’ Trophy-winning turn last season? Why bring on Maurice, who voluntarily excused himself from the Winnipeg Jets‘ bench?
It has become clear why Florida wanted the veteran coach. He’s kept the Panthers fresh on both sides of the puck, made the (correct) hard decisions and evolved right along with his players. Now, after Maurice took down one team he formerly coached in Toronto, he faces another franchise with which he has ties — Maurice was the final coach in Hartford Whalers history and the first of the relocated Carolina Hurricanes. Thirty years later, Maurice can reach a Cup Final running through them. Talk about full circle.
Series prediction: Carolina in seven
Betting against Florida? Now? Well, yes. Not because it would be surprising at all to see the Panthers triumph. But top to bottom, the Hurricanes have the potential to be a little bit better, giving them the slightest edge. There’s hard-earned experience throughout Carolina’s lineup. And the Hurricanes’ defense is just so stifling it might be the genuine difference-maker in this series. That said, there should be plenty of fun hockey ahead, and Carolina will have to work for every W to punch its ticket for one more round.
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Oettinger: Stars can win the whole thing
Jake Oettinger likes his team’s chances against the Golden Knights after the Stars defeated the Kraken in Game 7.
Western Conference
How they got here: Defeated Winnipeg Jets 4-1; Defeated Edmonton Oilers 4-2
Goalie(s) confidence rating: 9/10
Adin Hill‘s role in closing out the Oilers reinforces what the NHL has come to learn about the Golden Knights this season: They always have a plan in net. As most teams turn to tandems, the Golden Knights have gone with a platoon.
It all started in response to losing Robin Lehner for the season following offseason hip surgery. The Knights used five goaltenders in the regular season, with rookie Logan Thompson winning a team-high 21 games. Then Thompson sustained an injury that has kept him out since late March. He was replaced by Laurent Brossoit, who won the games that allowed the Golden Knights to earn the West’s No. 1 seed, before he sustained an injury in Game 3 against the Oilers.
That opened the door for Hill, who won 16 games in the regular season. In short, the setbacks that could kill a team’s playoff hopes seem to make the Golden Knights stronger.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
Depth is everything, and the Golden Knights are one of the strongest examples of why front offices place such a premium on that attribute. We know how they’ve handled their goaltending situation through injury. Then there’s the fact that they have a roster that’s not built around any one line or defensive pairing, with the hope that all can contribute.
The Golden Knights have created a balanced approach that has led to them having 13 different goal scorers this postseason. And that’s with the realization they’ve had only two of their defensemen record goals — and those defensemen are not Alex Pietrangelo or Shea Theodore.
Players who will be key to the series
Vegas’ enviable depth means there are several options to fit this category. Yet what the Golden Knights have down the middle in the form of Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson and William Karlsson are another example of what makes them dangerous.
Eichel is the all-around offensive threat who can either create for himself or those around him which is why he leads the Golden Knights in goals and points. Meanwhile, Stephenson and Karlsson are the sort of two-way centers who can be trusted to play in every situation with the idea they’re also threats to score at any given time.
Player who needs to step up
It’s not a player, but rather their penalty kill as an entire unit. They were 19th in the regular season, with a 77.4% success rate, and the playoffs have not been any better. But that also comes with the context that they just finished a six-game series against an all-time great power-play unit in the Oilers. The Golden Knights have a 60% success rate this postseason, which is 15th among 16 playoff teams, and the lowest among the four teams remaining.
So … their penalty kill?
Yes, we’re still talking about the penalty kill because it is a concern. The Oilers had the No. 1 power play in the postseason with a 46.2% success rate, while the Jets, who the Golden Knights played in the first round, were second with a 41.7% success rate.
Now that those teams are both out, the strongest active power-play unit in the playoffs is … the Stars. They’re fifth overall, with a 31.7% success rate. Special teams could be a significant factor in this series.
How they got here: Defeated Minnesota Wild 4-2; defeated Seattle Kraken 4-3
Goalie confidence rating: 8.5/10
What the Kraken encountered in Game 7 is the version of Jake Oettinger that makes the Stars such a threat.
Oettinger has had his struggles during this year’s playoffs, and was pulled twice in the second round. But his 22-save performance to close out Seattle was one of his strongest outings of the postseason, reinforcing the notion he will play a monumental role in what happens next.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
Here’s the thing about the teams the Stars have played to this point. They were two of the NHL’s best during the regular season.
In 5-on-5 play during the regular season, Minnesota allowed the third-fewest goals per 60 minutes, the third-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 and the eighth-fewest scoring chances per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. Seattle allowed the second-lowest shots per 60, the fifth-lowest scoring chances per 60 and the eighth-lowest high-danger chances per 60. The end result saw the Stars average 3.5 goals per game in the first round and 3.14 per game in the second round. They can score on anyone.
Players who will be key to the series
Roope Hintz is a point away from being the postseason scoring leader. His performances have made him one of the front-runners for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP, and added to the argument that he might be the most underrated forward in the league.
Defenseman Miro Heiskanen leads the playoffs with 28:15 in average ice time, and has shown the versatility to play in every situation. Trade acquisitions Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov have given the Stars the sort of consistent presence that makes them balanced.
Landlord Joe Pavelski and his tenant, rookie Wyatt Johnston, have scored some of the biggest goals of the Stars’ run. And then there is Oettinger, who will look to succeed against a team that has already won a series against a Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck and Calder Trophy finalist Stuart Skinner.
Player who needs to step up
It might seem strange to suggest that a player averaging a point per game in the playoffs would be in the “needs to step up” category. So why is Jason Robertson — who scored 46 goals and 109 points in the regular season — being singled out?
Well, it goes back to the discussion about Robertson as a goal scorer. He scored twice in the first round but did not score in the second, which has led to some questions about how he will perform in the conference final. The Stars have already proven to be formidable without Robertson’s goals. But getting that scoring boost could be the difference between being a conference finalist and reaching the Stanley Cup Final.
Who wins: Pete DeBoer’s old team or his new team?
If you are a team that’s trying to take the next step and you’re looking to make a coaching change, you call DeBoer. He gets instant results. His first year with the New Jersey Devils saw them reach the Stanley Cup Final. He did it again in his first season with the San Jose Sharks. And while he did not reach the Cup Final with the Golden Knights in his first year, he did guide them to consecutive conference finals appearances.
But his third and final season with the Golden Knights saw the club miss the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, which led to the two sides parting ways. A month later, the Stars were in need of a new coach and they hired DeBoer.
So what will it be? Will the Stars be one of those DeBoer teams that gets to the Stanley Cup Final in his first season? Or will the conference finals be the end of the road while his old team marches closer to winning it all?
Series prediction: Vegas in seven
For all the reasons to pick the Golden Knights, those same arguments can be used to pick the Stars. Sure, the Golden Knights have depth. But so do the Stars, as every player who has played at least one game has recorded a point for them. The Golden Knights have found answers when faced with a goaltending challenge. So have the Stars, with the responses they have seen from Oettinger after losses. It’s the narrowest of margins, but we’re leaning to the Knights’ side.
Sports
‘You don’t want to have the same drip’: How a Houston Christian receiver became a shoe artist to the stars
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Max Olson
After Texas A&M‘s season-opening win over UTSA in August, Deacon Stanfield made his way down to a tunnel at Kyle Field. KC Concepcion met him there.
The Aggies’ new star receiver was looking to do a handoff. He passed two pairs of his team-issued Adidas cleats to Stanfield. In exchange, the artist promised he would hook him up with more of his finest work.
Custom cleats are a burgeoning business in the era of name, image and likeness, as college football players invest their own money into upgrading their in-game attire. When Concepcion and his Aggie teammates Rueben Owens II, Terry Bussey and Will Lee III are looking for something unique during their 10-0 start, they hit up their shoe guy in Houston.
“That’s the whole thing: You don’t want to look like everyone else, right?” Stanfield said. “You don’t want to have the same drip as the guy next to you.”
Stanfield has worked with Travis Hunter, Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith. He’s painted cleats worn by pros such as Travis Etienne Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Carlos Correa. He’s even painted custom Nikes for Caitlin Clark. He’s been customizing shoes for six years — and he just turned 20. What started as a high school hobby has evolved into a successful side hustle. When he’s not spray-painting kicks, he’s playing wide receiver and taking classes at Houston Christian. His teammates at HCU call him “The Cobbler.” Stanfield tries to slow down orders in the fall to focus on being an FCS student-athlete, but he’ll make exceptions when high-profile athletes pop up in his Instagram DMs.
He started this passion in 2019. His art teacher in junior high assigned the class to paint something on an unconventional canvas, so Stanfield tried a pair of shoes. As he watched more tutorial videos on YouTube about the customizing process, he wanted to keep learning and saved up to buy an airbrush and compressor.
“A lot of it was self-taught,” Stanfield said. “I just started, and I ruined so many shoes in the process, just messing with my own shoes.”
His father, Dusty, works in athlete marketing and helped get this hobby kick started with his connections. Deacon painted custom creations for NFL players Trayveon Williams and Case Keenum in 2020, but his first pair that garnered attention were “Duck Hunt”-themed Nike cleats for Hunter Renfrow, a pixelated tribute to the classic NES video game.
“I think with phones and devices taking up so much of their free time, it seems like kids these days are kind of delayed in finding their passion and finding what they really want to do,” Dusty Stanfield said. “So for him to figure that out, it’s something as a parent that’s very fulfilling to see.”
Deacon got opportunities to customize cleats for Etienne and several NFL players as part of the league’s “My Cause My Cleats” campaign. He has also partnered with Panini, which has flown him in for Super Bowl week each of the past three years to create custom cleats for pro athletes at their hospitality suite. Every shoe helps as Stanfield tries to grow his brand and business.
He put on a brave face in a surreal setting for a teen, joking that his “whole body was shaking” as he handed custom Nike sneakers to Eli Manning before this year’s Super Bowl in New Orleans. But nothing compared to the nerves of prepping a pair of Nike Blazer Mid ’77 for Clark to commemorate her Rookie of the Year season with the Indiana Fever.
“She is literally the definition of aura,” Stanfield said. “When she walked in, it felt like the entire room stopped talking and looked at her. When she opened them, she looked over at me and was like, ‘These are so cool. Did you make these?’ It was definitely one of the coolest experiences of my life.”
This is an enterprise that wouldn’t have been possible before the NIL era arrived and modernized college athletics in 2021. It’s run by an active college athlete and supported by athletes who finally have disposable income to spend. Stanfield’s timing couldn’t have been better. And this fall, the Aggies are keeping him busy.
Stanfield did custom sets of maroon, black and white cleats for Bussey and former A&M quarterback Conner Weigman last year and was quickly deluged with more orders. He came up with black Louis Vuitton-themed cleats for linebacker Taurean York and green camouflage cleats for Weigman.
Now he’s producing new shoes for Concepcion, the SEC’s third-leading receiver, every game this season. First it was black cleats with Chrome Hearts brand crosses and then gray Louis Vuitton cleats for the road win at Notre Dame. Stanfield got especially creative for the Aggies’ throwback uniform against Florida, painting an A-10 ‘Warthog’ shark mouth on gold cleats for Concepcion.
It’s not easy to run an airbrush-heavy business out of his Houston Christian dorm room, so Stanfield makes the 30-minute drive home to Fulshear, Texas, on Thursdays, his day off from football, to get his custom orders done out of his garage workspace.
Last Thursday, he put in another marathon session in his workshop customizing four pairs of cleats over 11 hours. Concepcion, Owens, Bussey and Lee got them back just in time to wear them for the No. 3 Aggies’ comeback win over South Carolina.
“I think it’s super cool that Coach [Mike] Elko is relaxed about that,” Stanfield said. “Some coaches won’t let their players wear anything other than black or white.”
HCU coaches have been no less supportive of Stanfield’s entrepreneurship ever since he joined the program last year. The 6-foot, 160-pound scholarship receiver is on the Huskies’ two-deep and travel squad this season and has played six games as a redshirt freshman.
He’s learned how to design mock-ups on his tablet or phone because the prep phase for customizing a shoe can be lengthy.
Stanfield starts by sanding down the shoe’s exterior and wiping it with acetone to strip the original factory finish, taping the soles and areas he won’t paint. Typically, he says, this can take up to two hours — if you’re doing it right.
Once he’s working with a clean canvas, it’s time to airbrush several layers of acrylic leather paint while often incorporating stencils. Stanfield has been doing this long enough that he can mix paint and make Aggie maroon by eyeballing it. After he’s done hand-painting and carefully detailing, the shoes get sprayed with a protective matte finish.
Stanfield can scroll through his camera roll and point to hundreds of cleats and shoes he’s customized, but nothing has gone viral such as the pair he customized for Alabama‘s Ryan Williams last season. Williams ordered a custom pair from him during his senior year of high school and asked for another with his “Hollywood” nickname painted across Nikes last season. After Williams’ breakout performance to beat Georgia, Stanfield did one more for him. Williams gave him creative license to paint whatever he liked.
Stanfield hand-painted a portrait of Williams with red braids over black Nikes. He even recreated the “SC Top 10” chain with gold and silver rhinestones. The pair took him at least 10 hours over several days to produce as he carefully painted the portrait, placed the stones and perfected the details.
Stanfield shared the shoes on his Instagram account, and Williams reposted them after Stanfield had gone to bed. Stanfield’s jaw dropped the next day when SportsCenter’s Instagram account shared his work with the world, in a post that got more than 113,000 likes.
Stanfield typically charges between $100 and $350 for these custom jobs depending on the difficulty.
Some players ship him their team-issued shoes. Others ask him to find a particular pair and add it to the bill. He’s not charging as much as many of the more established creators in this niche industry, mostly because he wants to stay affordable for high school and college athletes.
Keisean Henderson, ESPN’s No. 1 ranked quarterback recruit in the 2026 class, has ordered plenty from Stanfield, including a pair this offseason with his favorite Davy Crockett racoon-skin cap painted on the sides. The Houston commit collaborated with him again this summer on a black Louis Vuitton-style pair covered in UH emojis.
“He is one of one,” Henderson told ESPN. “He can take a thought from your mind and make it reality.”
This is how Stanfield is trying to get his foot in the door in a competitive business by connecting with the next big stars before they blow up. Stanfield did three pairs of custom cleats for Ohio State superstar Jeremiah Smith during his 7-on-7 days with South Florida Express. He would love to work with Smith again, but the Buckeyes don’t wear custom cleats during games.
Some connections endure for years and some pop up in an instant with an unexpected DM. Last summer, he was scrolling through his message requests on Instagram and spotted one from Leanna De La Fuente. She was inquiring about pricing and was looking to surprise her fiancé. When he clicked on her profile and realized she was referring to Hunter, he was astonished and immediately replied.
Stanfield shipped custom black cleats that featured Hunter’s Instagram handle. De La Fuente sent him a thank you video from the two-way star, who promised he would wear them for a game. The artist waited all season, wondering when Colorado‘s Heisman Trophy winner might break them out. Hunter saved the pair for his finale with the Buffaloes in the Alamo Bowl against BYU.
College players who can afford customs are typically wearing them for only one game to complement a specific uniform combination, while high schoolers tend to wear them all season. Henderson, the No. 4 recruit in this year’s SC Next 300, said he currently has four pairs of customs from Stanfield with more to come.
“You can stand out and express yourself without saying words,” Henderson said. “The game of football is made for you to stay in uniform. When I see the opportunity to make it my own, I try my best to showcase how I feel from my cleats.”
Back at Houston Christian, Stanfield tries his best to juggle all his responsibilities. He wore his own work, a pair of orange Louis Vuitton cleats, throughout spring and fall practice with the Huskies. Bachtel credits offensive coordinator Mike Besbitt for starting “The Cobbler” nickname in the spring, and it stuck with teammates. He’s done color swap customs for a few of them, but they know he’s already plenty busy at this time of year. The head coach would like a pair someday, too.
“I told him, ‘Look, I’m not as flashy as you. I don’t need all the Louis Vuitton and all that,'” Bachtel joked. “Just give me something we can wear in recruiting and maybe on the sidelines.”
As much as he would like to someday go full time in shoe customizing, Stanfield says he’s loving his experience in college football and not looking to fast-forward past it. Everybody tells him he’ll miss it when it’s over, so he’s trying to enjoy it. He’ll be back open for business in the offseason and eager to see what creative requests come next.
“I’ve never really thought of it as time-consuming,” Stanfield said, “because it’s a job that doesn’t feel like a job.”
The 2025-26 MLB hot stove has been lit just days after the Los Angeles Dodgers hoisted their second consecutive World Series championship trophy.
All eyes this winter are on a free agent hitting class featuring Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. But they’re not the only ones who will make a splash in the market.
Which teams will go big to contend for the 2026 World Series title? And who will make the trades and deals that have everyone buzzing?
Below is a running list of notable transactions and updates from throughout the MLB offseason.
Key links: Offseason grades | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin | Best fits
Notable MLB offseason transactions
Nov. 19
The Braves re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias to a one-year, $16 million contract.
The Atlanta Braves acquired Mauricio Dubon from the Houston Astros for Nick Allen in an exchange of infielders.
Nov. 18
The Baltimore Orioles acquired outfielder Taylor Ward from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.
New York Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham, Detroit Tigers infielder Gleyber Torres, Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Brandon Woodruff and Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga accepted their qualifying offers, meaning they’ll return to their respective teams in 2026 at salaries of $22.025 million.
Nov. 17
Reliever Ryan Yarbrough will be back in the Bronx after agreeing to a one-year deal with the New York Yankees.
Nov. 16
First baseman Josh Naylor and the Seattle Mariners have finalized a five-year, $92.5 million contract that has a full no-trade clause and no deferrals, sources tell ESPN.
Nov. 4
Chicago Cubs SP Shota Imanaga becomes free agent after team, player reject options for 2026
Nov. 3
Milwaukee Brewers exercise option on SP Freddy Peralta; SP Brandon Woodruff declines option
Boston Red Sox 3B Alex Bregman opts out of contract; SP Lucas Giolito declines option
New York Yankees OF Cody Bellinger declines option
New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso, RP Edwin Díaz opt out of contracts
Key offseason dates
Nov. 6: Free agency begins at 5 p.m. ET
Nov. 10-13: GM meetings in Las Vegas
Nov. 18-20: Owners meetings in New York
Nov. 18: Deadline to accept or reject qualifying offer
Nov. 21: Non-tender deadline
Dec. 8-10: Winter meetings in Orlando
Dec. 9: MLB draft lottery
Dec. 10: Rule 5 draft
Sports
$400 million extension, blockbuster trade or let it ride? MLB insiders break down Tigers’ Tarik Skubal options
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Kiley McDaniel
After three seasons with a face-of-the-franchise-type superstar to headline the winter, there is no Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto in the 2025-26 free agent class. But there is still one player whose potential availability could rock the offseason ahead: Tarik Skubal.
Why would the Detroit Tigers possibly move their ace on the heels of his second straight American League Cy Young Award and the team’s second consecutive postseason appearance?
Quite simply, because keeping Skubal in Detroit is going to become very expensive, very soon. The 28-year-old left-hander will enter the final year of his contract in 2026 before he is scheduled to reach free agency after the season. If he does hit the market next winter, Skubal has a chance of surpassing Los Angeles Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s record $325 million contract, and he could even become baseball’s first $400 million pitcher.
With Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris facing a decision that will shape the future of the franchise — and impact all of MLB — we talked with 11 industry insiders about what Detroit should do this offseason, broken into three main options.
1. Trade Skubal this winter
This was the least-popular option among our panel and one rival executive explained why.
“The whole reason you do all this is to start a season with a potential contender that has an ace. You can’t throw that away before the season starts. How long will it take to get here again?”
Some panelists hemmed and hawed about how much a team would have to overpay to get Detroit to consider a trade, believing an offer that included a young starting pitcher with front-line potential would be enough to start internal conversations — but nobody could get themselves logically to advocate for a deal unless something completely illogical was offered. And that type of deal increasingly doesn’t happen in modern baseball.
If the Tigers were to trade Skubal for anything less than a gobsmacking return, it would likely mean their competitive window would be tighter — and it would be hard to call Detroit a contender without Skubal next season. Dealing away a player of his caliber would label the Tigers a small-market team, at least by mindset, and bring into question whether they would find themselves in this situation again as other star players approach free agency. It’s much easier to push some, but not all, of their chips to the middle for the upcoming season and see what they can do with Skubal leading the way. Who knows when the next opportunity will come?
When I asked these sources what the Tigers should do, they seemed unsure about how Detroit was viewing the situation but leaned toward believing the Tigers would keep Skubal going into next season. That said, knowing what the market will bear is what Harris likes to do, so the drumbeat of Skubal being available in the right deal — or at least in the sense that Detroit would listen before hanging up — will likely continue.
2. Keep Skubal, but trade him at the deadline if the season doesn’t go as planned
In the event things go sideways during the first half of the 2026 season, everyone on our panel agreed that this was the right move. Defining what “going sideways” means with the expanded playoffs is hard, but battling for a wild-card spot around the trade deadline was where the gray area began for our panelists.
“You cannot, under any circumstances, hold Skubal through the trade deadline and miss the playoffs. That would be a catastrophe,” said one agent.
The haul would still be formidable for a rental deal — back-of-the-envelope math says two prospects ranking later in the top 100 or one elite young player, roughly speaking — but also because the offers would have to clear the bar of Detroit receiving a compensation pick just after the first round to even be considered, as that’s what the Tigers would get if Skubal walked in free agency (under the current free agency system).
Another rival executive has an informed theory on Harris’ focus: “He has his eyes set on 2027 and 2028 as his prime contending years.” If things go well in 2026, the window would expand to include it as well. Top prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark, the No. 2 and No. 6 prospects in the sport, could be core players as soon as the second half of 2026, so aiming for things to really take off in 2027 is logical.
Opinions vary on whether Skubal would fetch more this winter or at the deadline because it’s hard to project how desperate a contender could hypothetically be at the deadline versus what that team would offer to get an entire season of Skubal plus a first-round pick when he walks. It’s safe to assume the return would likely be a bit less at the deadline.
3. Keep Skubal no matter what, try to extend him and take the draft pick if he ends up leaving
This would be a bold move in the era of the asset value-focused approach that so many teams are taking now. If Skubal were to walk in free agency, the compensation would likely be a draft pick in the 30s the following summer — and that’s it. That type of pick is valued at roughly $8-10 million of surplus value, depending on your source.
There is more value that would come before that for Detroit, but it’s hard to quantify. The Tigers would get another title run with the reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young winner and more time to convince him to stay in Detroit. Maybe that combination could make magic and both sides could land on a deal before he hits free agency. Skubal has said he wants to stay in Detroit, so you can’t rule it out. Another rival executive thinks Harris is focused on how to make this happen. “[Harris] will never believe he can’t sign Skubal.”
That being said, Skubal being represented by Scott Boras makes it unlikely he will sign a deal without at least testing the market, as Boras typically advises clients to hit free agency.
There’s one more variable, though, that is unique to the timing of Skubal’s free agency: the expected labor strife next winter, with the current CBA expiring on Dec. 1, 2026. It’s unlikely Boras wants Skubal to be on the market through a labor stoppage that would leave him potentially signing right before spring training after some teams have spent their available cash and with the economic model of the game potentially changing in a way that hurts Skubal’s market. One source said the CBA complication moves the odds that Skubal signs an extension before free agency from 0% to 10%.
The last time there was a labor stoppage hanging over free agency, we saw a frenzy of late-November deals before the Dec. 1 lockout. A similar quicker free agent process that ends with Skubal signing around Thanksgiving would give Detroit a slight leg up, given the familiarity and exclusive negotiating window before free agency, relative to a protracted, winter-long bidding war.
The contract marks to beat are Yamamoto’s $325 million guarantee that is the most ever for pitchers and Max Fried’s $218 million guarantee that is tops among left-handers all-time. Both of those contracts were landed by agencies other than Boras Corp., and setting precedents is a large part of how top agencies market themselves to potential nine-figure clients.
It’s also worth noting Skubal had Tommy John surgery in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022, which are factors to consider when projecting a long-term deal in free agency.
Are Harris and the Tigers likely to win a straight bidding war with a precedent-setting guarantee? No, but if they can offer a shorter deal at an AAV record with opt-outs, they would at least have a path, albeit a narrow one, to keeping their ace.
The real issue for Detroit is their payroll. They finished last season with a $155 million competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll figure, over $90 million below the first CBT tax threshold. If Skubal will be getting an AAV in the $30 millions or even the low $40 millions, can the Tigers really justify giving a quarter of their payroll to one player? Would Harris do that, or would signing Skubal be part of a larger move to a payroll number that can justify fitting Skubal in there as the Tigers see their peak competitive window opening? If McGonigle and Clark show up late in 2026 and look like future stars, that won’t bump the payroll, but it could make the Tigers look more competitive going forward and that could help their long-term case to Skubal, as well.
This logic — if things go well in 2026, the Tigers will contend and hold onto Skubal through the season — is also why another executive mused on Detroit’s options if it traded Skubal at the deadline. “You could still trade [Skubal] and then sign him back long-term, but I can’t imagine the series of events where that would actually happen.”
There’s also the reading of the tea leaves for this winter. Some sources mentioned Detroit is targeting pitching depth early in free agency. Is that to backfill for a potential Skubal trade? A deal now or at the deadline? Or just to create depth for a title run like all contending teams need? Or to create leverage/depth so they have maximum optionality for all of 2026? You can see what you want to see when it comes to the Rorschach test that is the team-building conundrum of the winter.
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