NHL conference final preview: Goalie Confidence Index, key matchups, predictions
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The conference final round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs is upon us, and just as everyone predicted, it’s the Carolina Hurricanes matching up with the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference, with the Vegas Golden Knights squaring off against the Dallas Stars in the West.
There is no shortage of superstar wattage on display — with future Hall of Famers skating in each series — nor an absence of captivating storylines.
To help get you up to speed before the puck drops on Game 1 of the East matchup Thursday night, we’re bringing you a mega-preview, breaking down each team in five different categories and offering our predictions on which clubs will head to the Stanley Cup Final.
Note: Kristen Shilton previewed the Eastern Conference teams, while Ryan S. Clark previewed the two clubs from the West.
Eastern Conference
How they got here: Defeated New York Islanders, 4-2; defeated New Jersey Devils, 4-1.
Goalie confidence rating: 8/10
Carolina’s goaltending has been (mostly) superb in the postseason. The lone exception was Game 3 against the Devils, when Frederik Andersen was pulled after giving up four goals on 12 shots.
That blemish aside, the Hurricanes’ crease has been well maintained. Andersen is 5-0 (since his Game 3 replacement — rookie Pyotr Kochetkov — was tagged with the Game 3 loss), with a .931 save percentage, while Antti Raanta is 3-2 with a .906 SV%. Carolina boasts a dialed-in defense (more on them later), which helps the team’s goaltending shine, but the Hurricanes should have no concerns in that area heading into the next round.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
It’s easy to preach about the importance of balance and playing as the coveted “five-man unit” attacking the opposition on all fronts. Well, Carolina actually showcases those exact attributes nightly.
The Hurricanes are no one-trick pony. They don’t solely depend on stars to create their opportunities. Through 11 playoff games, Carolina has 14 different goal scorers — and no one with more than five markers — with contributions spread out evenly on both sides of the puck. The Hurricanes seemingly embrace any style of play — tight-checking or more wide-open — and have found success in both. A team this multifaceted would make any opponent nervous.
Players who will be key to the series
Carolina lost Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty to injury during the regular season — and Teuvo Teravainen in the first round — which opened the door for other forwards to emerge. Jordan Martinook was spectacular against the Devils, producing 10 points in five games. To think Carolina put him on waivers in October; now he is the team’s co-leader in playoff points. Do-everything forward Sebastian Aho has been strong throughout the postseason, registering five goals and 10 points.
Scoring is at an increasing premium the deeper the playoffs go, and being able to rely on its best players to support its depth contributions gives Carolina an ideal recipe to keep advancing. On the back end, Brent Burns has been leading the way with typically strong defensive play and timely offensive additions (he can still feather a puck from the blue line with flair). This season has been a personal storm surge for the always-interesting veteran.
Player who needs to step up
Jesperi Kotkaniemi began to come alive in the second round. What Carolina must want now is more, please. Kotkaniemi scored three goals in the Hurricanes’ first two games against the Devils, and assisted on Jesper Fast‘s overtime winner in Game 5 that put Carolina into the Eastern Conference final. Those are all positive things. But the Hurricanes will need Kotkaniemi at his defensive best in this next round, too.
Kotkaniemi should also channel that newfound scoring confidence into sending more shots on net (he’s taken only 18 in the postseason thus far) and he’s at just 37.4% in the faceoff circle (despite taking the second-most draws for Carolina in the playoffs). Kotkaniemi can provide more; he’s proven that. Now is the time to take his game over the top.
The Hurricanes aren’t just defensive darlings — they’re downright smothering
Burns? He’s still got it. Jaccob Slavin has been exceptional (and he’s plus-14!). Brett Pesce is making contributions. The Hurricanes are highly effective at turning teams back through the neutral zone and forcing shooters to the outside because of their depth on the back end. It just flows.
Coach Rod Brind’Amour hasn’t had to overwork anyone either, clearly indicative of the trust he has in the six skaters he’s had on patrol there through the postseason. And, the blueliners aren’t afraid to chip in offensively, collecting eight goals and 27 points in 11 postseason games. That’s a scary stat for Florida.
How they got here: Defeated Boston Bruins, 4-3; defeated Toronto Maple Leafs, 4-1
Goalie confidence rating: 9/10
Sergei Bobrovsky is back on the case this postseason — and turning back the clock with some vintage Bobrovsky performances. The Panthers’ netminder is 7-2 in the playoffs, with a .918 save percentage and 2.82 goals-against average.
To think Florida didn’t even start Bobrovsky in Game 1 against the Bruins. Instead, it was Alex Lyon — a late, great regular-season storyline for the Panthers — manning the Panthers’ crease early. But when he began to struggle, Bobrovsky stepped in seamlessly and continues to be Florida’s backbone. He’s also kept improving throughout the playoffs; in the Panthers’ second-round series against Toronto, Bobrovsky was a cool 4-1 with a .943 SV% and 1.89 GAA. Carolina’s shooters should prepare accordingly for Bobrovsky at his best.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
Florida defies the odds, and expectations. The Panthers weren’t supposed to be here — not in the playoffs at all, and then certainly not escaping the first round against Boston or downing the Maple Leafs in Round 2. Whatever label Florida has been given, it has thrown off. Whatever limits have been placed on the Panthers, they have surpassed.
Florida embodies the one-game-at-a-time cliche. This is not a team that appears overwhelmed, panicked or even slightly unsure of itself. The Panthers just play. Their roster is deep across the board, and they’ve proven they can win high-scoring contests as easily as defense-driven ones. No team has matured this year like the Florida Panthers. We’ll learn if they’re ready for the next step against Carolina.
Players who will be key to the series
Carolina plays a tight defensive game. Florida will need to match up well there, which puts Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad in the spotlight.
Montour is having an exceptional breakout year, collecting 73 points in the regular season and adding six goals and nine points in 12 postseason tilts — all while maintaining a locked-in focus on his defensive duties. Ditto for Ekblad, who has patrolled the Panthers’ blue line for years hoping for the opportunity the team has right now.
Shutting down the Hurricanes’ top strikers will be priority one for the Panthers, then it will be up to their stable of scorers — from Matthew Tkachuk to Carter Verhaeghe to Sam Bennett — to do what they’ve done all postseason and score the timely goals. But those certainly won’t come easily in the series ahead.
Player who needs to step up
Aleksander Barkov sets the standard in Florida. That distinction has never been more critical than right now. Barkov has had a fine playoffs so far, with two goals and nine points in 12 games. He’s shown a typically strong two-way game, but could pump up a lagging 48.3% success rate in the faceoff dot. Basically, Barkov has to be that No. 1 shutdown center who can do it all for the Panthers for a full series.
It’s felt as though Barkov is building toward a truly dominant run, and Carolina might be a good matchup for him to put all the elite elements of his game on display. Like Ekblad, Barkov has waited a long time for Florida to be in this position; this is his moment to take control.
Can Panthers coach Paul Maurice pull off a storybook season?
When Florida was flailing, it was Maurice — in his first season with the club — who shouldered blame. Why hadn’t the Panthers stuck with Andrew Brunette after their Presidents’ Trophy-winning turn last season? Why bring on Maurice, who voluntarily excused himself from the Winnipeg Jets‘ bench?
It has become clear why Florida wanted the veteran coach. He’s kept the Panthers fresh on both sides of the puck, made the (correct) hard decisions and evolved right along with his players. Now, after Maurice took down one team he formerly coached in Toronto, he faces another franchise with which he has ties — Maurice was the final coach in Hartford Whalers history and the first of the relocated Carolina Hurricanes. Thirty years later, Maurice can reach a Cup Final running through them. Talk about full circle.
Series prediction: Carolina in seven
Betting against Florida? Now? Well, yes. Not because it would be surprising at all to see the Panthers triumph. But top to bottom, the Hurricanes have the potential to be a little bit better, giving them the slightest edge. There’s hard-earned experience throughout Carolina’s lineup. And the Hurricanes’ defense is just so stifling it might be the genuine difference-maker in this series. That said, there should be plenty of fun hockey ahead, and Carolina will have to work for every W to punch its ticket for one more round.
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Oettinger: Stars can win the whole thing
Jake Oettinger likes his team’s chances against the Golden Knights after the Stars defeated the Kraken in Game 7.
Western Conference
How they got here: Defeated Winnipeg Jets 4-1; Defeated Edmonton Oilers 4-2
Goalie(s) confidence rating: 9/10
Adin Hill‘s role in closing out the Oilers reinforces what the NHL has come to learn about the Golden Knights this season: They always have a plan in net. As most teams turn to tandems, the Golden Knights have gone with a platoon.
It all started in response to losing Robin Lehner for the season following offseason hip surgery. The Knights used five goaltenders in the regular season, with rookie Logan Thompson winning a team-high 21 games. Then Thompson sustained an injury that has kept him out since late March. He was replaced by Laurent Brossoit, who won the games that allowed the Golden Knights to earn the West’s No. 1 seed, before he sustained an injury in Game 3 against the Oilers.
That opened the door for Hill, who won 16 games in the regular season. In short, the setbacks that could kill a team’s playoff hopes seem to make the Golden Knights stronger.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
Depth is everything, and the Golden Knights are one of the strongest examples of why front offices place such a premium on that attribute. We know how they’ve handled their goaltending situation through injury. Then there’s the fact that they have a roster that’s not built around any one line or defensive pairing, with the hope that all can contribute.
The Golden Knights have created a balanced approach that has led to them having 13 different goal scorers this postseason. And that’s with the realization they’ve had only two of their defensemen record goals — and those defensemen are not Alex Pietrangelo or Shea Theodore.
Players who will be key to the series
Vegas’ enviable depth means there are several options to fit this category. Yet what the Golden Knights have down the middle in the form of Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson and William Karlsson are another example of what makes them dangerous.
Eichel is the all-around offensive threat who can either create for himself or those around him which is why he leads the Golden Knights in goals and points. Meanwhile, Stephenson and Karlsson are the sort of two-way centers who can be trusted to play in every situation with the idea they’re also threats to score at any given time.
Player who needs to step up
It’s not a player, but rather their penalty kill as an entire unit. They were 19th in the regular season, with a 77.4% success rate, and the playoffs have not been any better. But that also comes with the context that they just finished a six-game series against an all-time great power-play unit in the Oilers. The Golden Knights have a 60% success rate this postseason, which is 15th among 16 playoff teams, and the lowest among the four teams remaining.
So … their penalty kill?
Yes, we’re still talking about the penalty kill because it is a concern. The Oilers had the No. 1 power play in the postseason with a 46.2% success rate, while the Jets, who the Golden Knights played in the first round, were second with a 41.7% success rate.
Now that those teams are both out, the strongest active power-play unit in the playoffs is … the Stars. They’re fifth overall, with a 31.7% success rate. Special teams could be a significant factor in this series.
How they got here: Defeated Minnesota Wild 4-2; defeated Seattle Kraken 4-3
Goalie confidence rating: 8.5/10
What the Kraken encountered in Game 7 is the version of Jake Oettinger that makes the Stars such a threat.
Oettinger has had his struggles during this year’s playoffs, and was pulled twice in the second round. But his 22-save performance to close out Seattle was one of his strongest outings of the postseason, reinforcing the notion he will play a monumental role in what happens next.
What we’ve learned about this team so far
Here’s the thing about the teams the Stars have played to this point. They were two of the NHL’s best during the regular season.
In 5-on-5 play during the regular season, Minnesota allowed the third-fewest goals per 60 minutes, the third-fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 and the eighth-fewest scoring chances per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. Seattle allowed the second-lowest shots per 60, the fifth-lowest scoring chances per 60 and the eighth-lowest high-danger chances per 60. The end result saw the Stars average 3.5 goals per game in the first round and 3.14 per game in the second round. They can score on anyone.
Players who will be key to the series
Roope Hintz is a point away from being the postseason scoring leader. His performances have made him one of the front-runners for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP, and added to the argument that he might be the most underrated forward in the league.
Defenseman Miro Heiskanen leads the playoffs with 28:15 in average ice time, and has shown the versatility to play in every situation. Trade acquisitions Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov have given the Stars the sort of consistent presence that makes them balanced.
Landlord Joe Pavelski and his tenant, rookie Wyatt Johnston, have scored some of the biggest goals of the Stars’ run. And then there is Oettinger, who will look to succeed against a team that has already won a series against a Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck and Calder Trophy finalist Stuart Skinner.
Player who needs to step up
It might seem strange to suggest that a player averaging a point per game in the playoffs would be in the “needs to step up” category. So why is Jason Robertson — who scored 46 goals and 109 points in the regular season — being singled out?
Well, it goes back to the discussion about Robertson as a goal scorer. He scored twice in the first round but did not score in the second, which has led to some questions about how he will perform in the conference final. The Stars have already proven to be formidable without Robertson’s goals. But getting that scoring boost could be the difference between being a conference finalist and reaching the Stanley Cup Final.
Who wins: Pete DeBoer’s old team or his new team?
If you are a team that’s trying to take the next step and you’re looking to make a coaching change, you call DeBoer. He gets instant results. His first year with the New Jersey Devils saw them reach the Stanley Cup Final. He did it again in his first season with the San Jose Sharks. And while he did not reach the Cup Final with the Golden Knights in his first year, he did guide them to consecutive conference finals appearances.
But his third and final season with the Golden Knights saw the club miss the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, which led to the two sides parting ways. A month later, the Stars were in need of a new coach and they hired DeBoer.
So what will it be? Will the Stars be one of those DeBoer teams that gets to the Stanley Cup Final in his first season? Or will the conference finals be the end of the road while his old team marches closer to winning it all?
Series prediction: Vegas in seven
For all the reasons to pick the Golden Knights, those same arguments can be used to pick the Stars. Sure, the Golden Knights have depth. But so do the Stars, as every player who has played at least one game has recorded a point for them. The Golden Knights have found answers when faced with a goaltending challenge. So have the Stars, with the responses they have seen from Oettinger after losses. It’s the narrowest of margins, but we’re leaning to the Knights’ side.
MONTREAL — Alex Ovechkin padded his NHL goals record and moved up a couple other big lists in the Washington Capitals‘ 8-4 romp over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night.
Ovechkin had his 33rd career hat trick to tie Brett Hull for fourth in NHL history and added an assist as he moved past Joe Sakic into 10th on the points list.
Ovechkin has 10 goals in 21 games this season to push his NHL-record to 907. The 40-year-old Russian has 1,643 points, two more than Sakic.
“I just try to do my job and try to enjoy the moment and enjoy the time,” Ovechkin said.
Ovechkin opened the scoring on a power play a minute into the first period, firing a wrist shot past goalie Sam Montembeault off a faceoff. Ovechkin assisted on Ethen Frank‘s goal two minutes into the second that gave the Capitals the lead for good at 2-1.
The Washington star scored twice late in the third period, the first on a rush with 4:57 to go and the second into an empty net from his own zone with 2:04 remaining. He has scored in four straight games and has seven goals in his last six games.
“After everything he’s done we’re still amazed at what he can do, and I’m sure he’s not close to slowing down,” Frank said of Ovechkin.
Ovechkin is the second player in NHL history with six goals in a four-game span at age 40 or older, according to ESPN Research.
Coming off a 7-4 home victory over Edmonton on Wednesday night, Washington has won three in a row to improve to 11-8-2. It was the Capitals’ lone road game in an eight-game span.
Montreal has lost five straight and seven of eight.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
It’s time for Texas to pack up.
The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.
Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).
The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.
First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.
Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.
Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.
Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?
Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?
The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.
And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.
It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale
Jump to:
Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week
Top five breakout players this season
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.
David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.
Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson
How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?
Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.
If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).
If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura
What’s at stake in each matchup?
USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.
USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.
One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.
Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti
Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.
For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale
SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.
Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.
“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson
Quotes of the week
“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”
“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”
“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”
Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”
“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”
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