One year later: Who Alabama’s Nick Saban was really talking to when he called out Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M
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Alex Scarborough, ESPN Staff Writer
FROM THE OUTSIDE, what happened a year ago this week looked like a bruised ego lashing out. Alabama coach Nick Saban couldn’t abide not having the top-ranked recruiting class in the country, so he took aim at No. 1 Texas A&M, claiming it “bought every player” via name, image and likeness deals.
Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher was so incensed by his former boss’ comments that he called a news conference for the following day. He said, among other things, that Saban was a “narcissist” who should have been slapped.
Opposing coaches said while Fisher made it unnecessarily personal, it was Saban who started the war of words by crossing a line and singling out Texas A&M.
“Nick lost on the field,” said one SEC head coach, referring to Alabama’s loss to Texas A&M during the regular season. It was the first time Saban had ever been defeated by a former assistant. “But worse than that, he’d lost some recruits he doesn’t normally lose.”
But it also didn’t add up that an 8-4 Texas A&M team with an outdated offense could sign all those four- and five-star prospects, said the SEC coach. “One thing changed,” he said, referring to the NCAA’s decision in June 2021 to allow players to profit from their name, image and likeness for the first time. While perhaps not its intended purpose, NIL has shifted the dynamics of recruiting more than at any point in college sports history.
And it turns out that even a juggernaut like Alabama — which has dominated recruiting since Saban arrived in 2007 — was caught unprepared.
If you want to understand why Saban said what he did last May, start there. Sources close to the program say it was never about Texas A&M or Jimbo Fisher. It was all about Alabama.
It was about the people in the room that night — at an event in Birmingham promoting the World Games of all things. Media access was supposed to be limited for a “fireside chat” featuring Saban and Alabama basketball coach Nate Oats. Neither coach took questions from reporters. Cameras should have been shut off by the time Saban launched into a 7-minute diatribe on NIL.
Only no one enforced the rules and everyone got to hear Saban’s unvarnished talking points, which he’d only shared privately before.
“It was a challenge to those that were in the crowd that night, mostly consisting of deep-pocketed Bama boosters in what was a relatively intimate event,” said former Tide QB Greg McElroy. “It was a shot in the arm like, ‘Hey, man. I know you’ve really enjoyed the championships that we’ve brought home in the last 12-13 years. And if you want us to continue to compete, you better get the checkbook out.'”
For the longest time, those same boosters had poured money into the athletic department. But now that wasn’t enough. To stay at the top, Saban needed them to embrace NIL and start spending.
“That was Coach’s call to action,” McElroy said. “He’s saying, ‘Guess what? The world is changing, and we better get ready.'”
FANS WHO CAME to Tuscaloosa for the spring A-Day scrimmage last month were able to visit The Authentic. Located inside of Bryant-Denny Stadium, the shop is a first-of-its kind partnership with Fanatics where people can purchase player-branded NIL merchandise.
To the left of the main register is an assortment of player-specific items. A crimson short-sleeve shirt with the last name and number for cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, safety Malachi Moore, outside linebacker Dallas Turner and others. A few yards away a framed photo of wideout Ja’Corey Brooks sells for $199.
A portion of sales goes to the players.
None of this existed a year ago. The Authentic wasn’t announced until July. It didn’t open until Oct. 8 — which just so happened to be the day Alabama hosted Texas A&M in football.
High Tide Traditions was Alabama’s primary collective when Saban and Fisher got into it last year. It was barely a month old, trying to raise awareness and money. As one source described the situation: “Everyone was scrambling.”
The school’s NIL offerings were lagging behind other top programs in the country because of the athletic department’s cautious approach to future legislation and sustainability, as well as boosters’ contentedness with the status quo.
“The Tennessees, the USCs, the A&Ms, the Texases, the Miamis, they’re desperate fanbases that are willing to throw their money away at [NIL],” a source familiar with Alabama’s NIL fundraising said. “If all of the sudden they won six national championships, I guarantee you those donors would tell them, ‘Find someone else.'”
The result was a recruiting powerhouse that was loosening its grip — ever so slightly, but enough to make a difference.
It’s a reality Saban has acknowledged in private. At a booster gathering last month, he addressed NIL. High Tide Traditions had dissolved in February and was replaced by Yea Alabama, which Saban publicly endorsed. Boosters in attendance were given pamphlets on the new collective, showing how they could get involved. Saban told the crowd they were still playing catch-up. But, he said, they were closing the gap fast.
For proof, look no further than the newcomers who took the field at A-Day, including members of a freshman class that ranked No. 1 nationally, according to ESPN. Saban and his staff signed a record eight top-25 prospects. Four of those eight signees — offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor, defensive back Caleb Downs, running back Justice Haynes and defensive tackle James Smith — participated in a meet-and-greet at The Authentic in February.
Haynes was the star of the open scrimmage with three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving). This summer, he’ll be joined by the No. 1-ranked running back in the class in Richard Young.
Also featured for the first time were transfers Trezman Marshall from Georgia, who had four tackles, and tight end CJ Dippre from Maryland, who caught one pass.
Without a more aggressive NIL approach, are all of those players in Tuscaloosa? Maybe not. A source connected to the program said Alabama lost out on signing a star receiver in the transfer market a year earlier because it was unwilling (or unable) to get into a bidding war.
In the weeks after A-Day, Alabama added to its quarterback room by signing former Notre Dame starter Tyler Buchner. And it created some much needed depth in its secondary by bringing in Trey Amos from Louisiana and Jaylen Key from UAB.
Saban was asked in December about how NIL played a role in the team’s 2023 signing class, which featured four more ESPN 300 players than the year before.
“It did have an impact on recruiting with some players,” he said.
He paused and then shrugged.
“I don’t know how you make comments about a crazy situation right now,” he said.
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Saban likes what he sees so far from new Alabama OC
Nick Saban says he and his players are very pleased thus far with new Crimson Tide offensive coordinator Tommy Rees after the first spring scrimmage.
FROM THE BEGINNING, Saban has been up front about his reservations regarding NIL. While he has repeatedly said he’s in favor of players making money, he has also expressed concerns about how it might become the end-all, be-all in recruiting, creating a “pay for play” model.
That night in Birmingham, Saban told the audience what recruits were asking him: “Well, what am I going to get?” He said prospects in the state who grew up wanting to go to Alabama wouldn’t commit if the Tide could not match another school’s offer.
While the Tide could coast on reputation for a while — internally, the consensus was they wouldn’t experience a significant dip for another one or two recruiting classes — it was clear the old way of doing things was over. And it wasn’t just Texas A&M setting the pace. Saban also brought up Jackson State and Miami for reportedly paying exorbitant amounts for players. He didn’t mince words when he said, “I know that we’re going to lose recruits because somebody else is going to be willing to pay them more.”
“He had a structure. He had a system. He was nailing college football,” one SEC coach said. “Why would you want something new? Just like he didn’t want the new-age offenses around, he didn’t want NIL.”
Right or wrong, another source said, “The anger and frustration was that there were other people out there not playing by the rules.” Specifically, Saban has brought up the notion that NIL isn’t supposed to be used to “entice” a player to a certain school. But that’s an awfully fine line that no program has been publicly accused of crossing by the NCAA.
Former staff members recalled a similar situation when Saban underestimated the impact of the early signing period when it began for the 2018 class. Saban was frustrated by Alabama’s lackluster sixth-place finish in the recruiting rankings that year, but he adjusted and the next year the Crimson Tide were No. 1 again.
Just like his public opposition to up-tempo offenses a decade ago — he famously asked if this was what we wanted football to be? — it’s a mistake to interpret his comments as coming from a place of fear. After losing to the more advanced offenses of Ole Miss, Auburn and Texas A&M, Saban went out and hired former USC coach Lane Kiffin after the 2013 season to bring the spread and up-tempo to Tuscaloosa. The result was national championships and a string of pro quarterbacks in Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and Bryce Young.
Even if he starts a half-beat behind sometimes, Saban has proved he can catch up and often get ahead of the curve. As a former assistant explained, “He’s not afraid of change.”
Making things easier was the NCAA’s revised guidance on NIL in October, which included this key point: “Institutions may direct donor funds to collectives when fundraising, but they may not specify which student-athlete or sport these funds should be directed to.”
In January, Alabama announced another landmark deal, this time with multimedia rights giant Learfield. The pair planned to create an “epicenter of support for name, image and likeness” right next-door to The Authentic, providing players resources like a dedicated staff, meeting space and even a studio.
The Fanatics and Learfield deals, along with others, put Alabama on solid footing. Athletic director Greg Byrne recently told the Sports Business Journal, “We have tried to be slow and steady from an NIL standpoint. We have tried to not have a whole lot of shock and awe.”
DON’T BE SURPRISED if Alabama still gets outbid on occasion.
Just because the school has more money to commit to NIL now than it did before doesn’t mean it has the most. Its donor base is still relatively modest compared to larger, more well-funded alumni bases like Texas A&M’s.
“Miami, Texas, Oregon,” said one Power 5 head coach. “They have more money than Alabama’s donors do.”
A leader of a Power 5 collective in the South said Saban’s original vision for NIL made sense. Essentially, Saban wanted every player to earn the same amount — a base salary of sorts — and from there they could earn more in the marketplace based on performance and exposure. The problem, according to the leader of the Power 5 collective, is that the base salary was too small for some higher-end recruits and Alabama was getting outbid by two and three times.
Sources say that’s changed and Alabama has become more competitive thanks to better NIL funding. Which in turn has allowed Saban to make up the difference by pitching the national reach of the program — read: lucrative marketing opportunities — and the ability to compete for national championships.
Saban then uses another three-letter acronym to reinforce Alabama’s value: NFL.
His pitch to recruits, according to multiple sources, is simple yet effective: Do you want to make an extra $30,000 in NIL somewhere else or do you want to come here and make an extra $30 million by going to the NFL?
Alabama has produced more than 40 first-round picks since Saban arrived in 2007. Its creative team is fond of trotting out graphics with the total amount of money earned by players in the NFL since that time. The latest tally: $1.94 billion.
Saban says playing for national championships and developing for the next level should trump upfront NIL money. He can look no further than Texas A&M’s highly touted classes of 2021 and 2022, which have seen 15 departures following a 5-7 season with just two wins in SEC play last season, for evidence that winning matters.
But to be in the conversation with top prospects, NIL money has to be competitive. In the beginning, Alabama was too far apart from other schools. Now, according to sources, Alabama is close enough in NIL for the rest of Saban’s pitch to matter.
Complacency will always be a concern. A program insider pointed to Florida’s downfall after Urban Meyer — how the program relied on its reputation for too long, didn’t invest properly in facilities and fell behind.
But the difference is that Saban is still at Alabama. And he still clearly has a sense of urgency when it comes to staying ahead of the competition.
Losing to Texas A&M stung. Losing to the Aggies in recruiting was something he couldn’t stomach.
The result was a messy back-and-forth the SEC brass surely wishes never happened. But from Alabama’s perspective, it might have been the wake-up call boosters needed.
Saban and the Tide might have been a step slow when it came to the NIL arms race, but they’ve caught up in a hurry.
The Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights are at the same crossroads, facing 2-1 deficits ahead of road playoff games Monday.
First up on the schedule is Capitals-Carolina Hurricanes (7 p.m. ET, TNT), followed by Golden Knights-Edmonton Oilers (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Sunday’s games and the Three Stars of Sunday from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 4 | 7 p.m. ET | TNT
With a 2-1 series lead, the Canes are now -650 favorites to win this series, while the Capitals are +425. Carolina has also jumped to second in the Stanley Cup futures table, at +350, while the Capitals are now +2500.
This is the second straight series in which the Canes led 2-1 (they beat the Devils in five games in Round 1). Carolina/Hartford is 9-4 all time in best-of-seven series when leading 2-1.
Game 3 was the Canes’ first playoff shutout win since Game 2 of the 2022 second round against the Rangers. It was the Caps’ first shutout loss since Game 5 of the 2020 first round against the Islanders.
Frederik Andersen‘s shutout was the fourth of his playoff career, but his first postseason clean sheet as a Hurricane. He joins Cam Talbot as the only active goalies with a playoff shutout for three different franchises.
Andrei Svechnikov now has six goals this postseason, which is the 17th instance of a Hurricanes/Whalers player scoring six or more goals in a single postseason.
The four goals allowed by Logan Thompson in Game 3 were more than his combined goals against in Games 1 and 2, and the most since Game 3 of the first round against Montreal (five).
Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers
Game 4 | 9:30 p.m. ET | TNT
The Oilers’ and Knights’ series odds contracted after Vegas’ Game 3 win. Edmonton is now -250 to win, whereas Vegas is +200 to do so. The Oilers have the third-shortest Cup futures odds at +360, while the Knights are third longest at +1000.
Vegas’ Reilly Smith was credited with the winning goal in Game 3 with 0.4 seconds left on the clock after the puck angled in off Leon Draisaitl‘s stick. It goes in the record books as being scored with one second left in the third period — tied for the latest go-ahead goal in regulation in Stanley Cup playoff history with Colorado’s Nazem Kadri in 2020 and Carolina’s Jussi Jokinen in 2009.
Jack Eichel enters Game 4 riding an active six-game assist streak, which is tied for the Golden Knights’ postseason record. Mark Stone (2023) and Smith (2018) also accomplished the feat.
Connor McDavid now has 40 career playoff goals; he’s the seventh Oilers player to reach that benchmark.
Edmonton’s Corey Perry scored two goals in the first period of Game 3, becoming the third-oldest player in Stanley Cup playoff history with a multigoal period; at 39 years, 359 days old, he is behind Nicklas Lidstrom (41) and Teemu Selanne (40) at the time they had a multigoal period in a playoff game.
Öcal’s Three Stars from Sunday
The reigning Stanley Cup champions played their best game of the postseason. They limited the Maple Leafs to 22 shots on goal, owned the neutral zone, and peppered Toronto’s Joseph Woll with 37 shots en route to a 2-0 win. (Small shoutout to Woll, who played great — this game could’ve easily been 8-0.)
With a goal and two assists in Game 3, Rantanen became the first player in Stanley Cup playoffs history with five three-point games through a team’s first 10 contests. His first of those games was in Game 5 of the first round.
Bobrovsky didn’t have the busiest night of his playoff career, but he stopped all 22 shots on goal, his fifth career postseason clean sheet.
Sunday’s recaps
Dallas Stars 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
DAL leads 2-1 | Game 4 Tuesday
The Stars returned home having earned home-ice advantage in the series with a split of the first two games in Winnipeg, and from the start of this one, they looked like they did not want to give it back. Dallas’ Roope Hintz scored 2:27 in on a power play, and while Kyle Connor answered midway through the first, Thomas Harley responded thereafter, giving Dallas a 2-1 edge after the first. Nino Niederreiter scored his fourth goal of the playoffs to knot the game at two, but then the third period was all Stars. Alexander Petrovic and Mikko Rantanen scored within 50 seconds of each other, and Wyatt Johnston put the exclamation point on the contest with a goal at 14:06. Full recap.
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Tempers flare late after Max Domi’s big hit on Aleksander Barkov
Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov is shaken up after taking a hit from Max Domi late in the game.
Florida Panthers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Series tied 2-2 | Game 5 Wednesday
It’s down to a best-of-three for the Atlantic Division crown. Carter Verhaeghe kicked off the scoring for the Panthers at 15:45 of the first, and the 1-0 score would persist until 12:09 of the third, when Sam Bennett added his fifth of the postseason to make it 2-0. That was more than enough for Sergei Bobrovsky, who saved all 23 shots the Maple Leafs sent on goal. Joseph Woll was no slouch in the Leafs’ cage, either, saving 35 of 37. Tempers flared late in the game after Toronto’s Max Domi boarded Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov and a small melee ensued. Will that carry over into Game 5? Full recap.
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Wyatt Johnston pokes in Stars’ 3rd goal of 3rd period
Wyatt Johnston taps in a goal for the Stars to pad their lead in the third period vs. the Jets.
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Ryan S. Clark
LAS VEGAS — Jack Eichel is everything everywhere all at once for the Vegas Golden Knights.
You’re going to see Eichel start games. You’re going to see him score goals. You’re going to see his work lead to goals for his teammates. You’re going to see him score on the power play. Chances are — and not as in Chance, the Golden Knights’ mascot — you already knew that.
But what you might not realize? You’re also going to see him winning defensive zone faceoffs while playing a big role on the penalty kill. You’re going to see him among the special group that Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy trusts to either get the lead or defend the lead in the final two minutes.
Eichel’s status as a top-line center made him the centerpiece of possibly the biggest trade in the history of a franchise that has embodied the winning-at-all-costs philosophy. But Eichel’s focus was on something more: becoming a complete center who can be sent out on the ice in any situation.
Getting there involved earning Cassidy’s trust — which meant arriving at a certain realization about his game.
“When I got here, we had Chandler Stephenson, who is a really good-way center. You have William Karlsson, who is a really good two-way center,” Eichel said. “I looked around and said, ‘If I want to get the ice time and be trusted in these situations, I have to earn the trust of the coach and become more detailed and responsible defensively.'”
For all the different moves that Golden Knights general manager Kelly McCrimmon has made to tweak his roster, there are constants. One of them is having a stack of two-way centers on all four lines, to the point that one of them might be moved to the wing because the Golden Knights have that much depth.
Not that Eichel couldn’t be used in defensive situations earlier in his career. It’s just that the No. 2 pick of the 2015 NHL draft was always known more for what he did in the offensive zone, going back to his time at Boston University, where he won the Hobey Baker Award in his lone season, and in six seasons with the Buffalo Sabres.
“I [penalty] killed a little bit when I was in Buffalo, and sometimes when you have a team that’s not winning, you can be honed as a poor defensive forward or a defensive liability,” Eichel said. “I also think just part of it is maturity. It’s understanding what it takes to win, and coming here and having the opportunity to play in this system with this organization, and then allowing me to grow my game, and then having the opportunity to do that.”
THERE WERE A NUMBER of terms that were associated with Eichel when he was a draft prospect in 2015: Future captain. Future All-Star. Future franchise savior.
Being the strongest penalty killer, however, wasn’t one of them.
Eichel acknowledges he was on the penalty kill with the Sabres. It was enough to make him a contributor, but he never was the center anchoring a short-handed unit. The most short-handed minutes he received in a single season was 53:13 in his third season in Buffalo, according to Natural Stat Trick.
“It’s about the details, but I think a lot of young players when they come into the league are a bit raw,” Eichel explained. “They’re still used to having the puck on their stick for so much time during the game and they rely on their offense. You have to find out ways to round your game off and become a more complete player.”
Getting traded to Vegas in November 2021 was a significant shift. It took Eichel from a franchise that struggled to win — despite finding lots of talented players — to an organization for which “failure” was finishing that 2021-22 season with 94 points and missing the postseason by a single point — after reaching the playoffs in four consecutive campaigns.
That playoff miss prompted the Golden Knights to move on from coach Peter DeBoer and hire Cassidy, who had just been let go by the Boston Bruins. In Cassidy, the Golden Knights got an experienced coach whose defensive philosophies were at the core of why the Bruins reached the playoffs in six straight seasons.
“It did take time,” Karlsson said about learning Cassidy’s system. “We weren’t used to it. But once we learn it, you react with your instincts. You don’t have to think about it anymore because it’s a really good system. He usually has the center in a really good position, but also a really good position to transition into the offensive zone. But there are a lot of defensive details.”
Eichel made an impact in his first full season with Vegas in 2022-23. He led the Golden Knights with 66 points, and his 27 goals were second on the team. Eichel also led the club with 223 shots on goal, while scoring 14 power-play points.
The way McCrimmon constructed the Golden Knights meant that for Eichel to attain more ice time in those crucial situations, he needed to find room in a crowded landscape. The Knights had Karlsson and Stephenson. And they also had Ivan Barbashev, Brett Howden, Nicolas Roy, Reilly Smith and Mark Stone as part of the forward core. All of them logged more short-handed minutes than Eichel when they won the Stanley Cup in 2023.
Still, Eichel would be second on the team in 5-on-5 minutes during the playoffs behind Jonathan Marchessault, while finishing with six goals and 26 points in 22 games.
How did Eichel go about letting Cassidy know that he could be trusted in those situations? It wasn’t through anything he said. It was about using every practice and every game to prove he was ready to handle those demands.
“If I’m put in a situation and I don’t produce a result that is positive for the group? Then, I’m not going to have opportunities,” Eichel said. “It’s about gaining trust through good play, working with the coaches on the structure, what they are looking for and then being able to go out and execute it. I think that’s been a big, big thing.”
Even if he wasn’t heavily used on the penalty kill with the Sabres, Eichel was still playing a lot. He averaged more than 19 minutes per game in every season in Buffalo, and had four straight seasons of more than 20 minutes per contest.
In his first season with Cassidy in 2022-23, Eichel averaged a career-low 18:46 of ice time per game in the regular season, and logged 18:59 per game in the playoffs en route to the Cup.
The investment Eichel made in becoming a more responsible player paved the way for his increased minutes in the seasons that followed. There was also an opportunity for someone to take those short-handed minutes, because Smith was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins following the Cup win in 2023.
Eichel would finish 2023-24 with a career-high 20:31 in ice time per game in 2023-24, and 123:48 in short-handed ice time, which was second among all Vegas centers behind Karlsson. He was also second in total power-play ice time, and seventh in total 5-on-5 ice time on the team — mainly due to missing 19 games.
“We’ve always had good centers. I think we definitely took a crazy step forward when we added Jack,” said Stone, a two-time Selke Trophy finalist as the game’s best two-way forward. “You go from having three guys to four guys, maybe five guys, even. Last year, he kind of took over and this year he took over for Stephenson.”
LOSING MARCHESSAULT AND STEPHENSON to free agency — in an offseason in which they saw six players from their 2023 Stanley Cup-winning team depart — meant the Golden Knights needed to find solutions to make up for those departures.
Eichel provided the Golden Knights with the best season of his career. His 66 assists and 94 points were both career highs. Some point out that Eichel could have had his first 100-point campaign if not for missing five games.
Then there’s his usage. Eichel led all Golden Knights forwards in average ice time (a career high of 20:32 per game), 5-on-5 ice time and power-play minutes. As for short-handed minutes? Eichel led all forwards in that too, by a margin of 35 minutes more than Howden. He was second in defensive zone faceoffs taken.
There was also an underlying theme of limiting mistakes. Vegas finished the regular season with the second-fewest penalty minutes in the NHL. And yes, Eichel was at the heart of that too, as he had only eight penalty minutes.
“It helps when you have the puck a lot,” Stone said. “He’s good in the D-zone, but he has the puck on his stick more than he doesn’t. He plays the D-zone quick, but when you’re that good of a player, the other team is thinking about not making mistakes.”
Karlsson explained how Cassidy’s system can be physically demanding for anyone playing down the middle. He said there are the natural expectations that come with playing center in today’s NHL. But one of the reasons why the Golden Knights place such an emphasis on conditioning and strength training is so their centers are prepared to play those longer shifts in the event they can’t get off the ice.
Stone added that Cassidy’s structure means centers are doing “a lot of skating,” while the wingers are expected to deny the other team from getting shots from the point and being active in the top of the ice.
“He’s been handling it well this year,” Karlsson said. “He’s in Year 3 now of Butch and his assistants. It’s kind of natural to him now and he’s good. He’s good at picking up things like stripping a guy off the top as he’s a big, strong guy. He reads the game well, so he’s really turning into a 200-foot player.”
During Cassidy’s time with the Bruins, he worked with venerable two-way centers such as six-time Selke Trophy winner Patrice Bergeron and stalwart second-line pivot David Krejci. In discussing those two, Cassidy admitted that they “probably taught me more than I taught them.”
But when it came to his conversations with Eichel, Cassidy said that he talked about what he saw from Bergeron and Krejci — the value they saw and provided in efficient operations in the defensive zone.
Cassidy said he and his staff started seeing that investment in Eichel pay off during their championship season. He’s since grown in those responsibilities as a two-way player who can now be used in every situation.
“That’s on the player,” Cassidy said. “They’ve got to decide if that’s what they want to do because it’s not easy to check. It’s a mindset a lot of nights, and we’ve got to be going to work and he’s done it. He’s getting credit for it, and he should.”
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Buster Olney
Teams are traditionally split into two camps leading up to the Major League Baseball trade deadline — those acquiring talent and those trading it away. But the addition of a third wild-card team for each league in 2022, which created a 12-team playoff field, has helped foster a third category: opportunists.
These clubs are on the fringe of contention, aiming to take advantage of a thin trade market by putting high asking prices on some of their players, hoping a desperate contender buys in — for maximum value.
Adders. Dealers. Opportunists.
This is just one of a number of developing conditions that are helping to form the 2025 trade market. Let’s dig into all the X factors that will rule this year’s July 31 deadline based on what executives around the league are saying.
1. There could be more opportunists this year.
The Milwaukee Brewers are hovering around .500 in an absolutely stacked National League, and even though they could be within range of the division lead in July, it would be with diminished hope if the Chicago Cubs continue to build on their strong start. Additionally, it might be unlikely that in an NL packed with playoff-caliber teams — the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves in the East, and the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks in the West — that Milwaukee could even win a wild-card spot. The Brewers have better chances of taking the NL Central (13%) than earning a wild-card berth (5.3%), according to Fangraphs.
This could lead to the Brewers doing what the Tampa Bay Rays did at the trade deadline last year — capitalize on there being so few dealers on the market. Freddy Peralta has been one of the league’s best starters this year, and he’s earning a very affordable $8 million this year, with Milwaukee holding an $8 million option for next season. If the Orioles landed him, he would instantly become their ace. For the Yankees, he could be a bedrock behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodon. If Peralta stays healthy, his value will never be higher than it is now.
The Rays were the opportunists of last summer, flipping Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners with two-and-a-half years of team control remaining and trading Isaac Paredes to the Cubs despite trailing by just 1½ games for the third wild card on the last Sunday of July. Tampa Bay didn’t go into full sell mode; rather, it saw a stark trade market — “There are no good players available,” one executive said in the middle of last July — and capitalized.
It’s possible — maybe even likely — that the Brewers won’t choose this path. Owner Mark Attanasio is seen by his peers as competitive, someone who places a high value on making the playoffs. Some rival execs don’t believe Milwaukee would consider trading Peralta if the team is still within range of the Cubs, who are managed by former Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell.
But for some of the teams stuck amid the pack of contenders, it’s something worth considering:
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St. Louis Cardinals: They’re on a winning streak, and they’ve communicated to other teams that even if they aren’t a front-runner, they might keep their tradable players in what is the last season of John Mozeliak’s tenure as head of baseball operations.
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Minnesota Twins: They could dangle Byron Buxton, their dynamic and oft-injured center fielder, into the trade conversations. Buxton is healthy and playing well, and he’s under contract for the next three seasons at $15.1 million per year.
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Toronto Blue Jays: Now that they’ve signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to anchor their team for a long time, they could look at the best ways to shape a future around him, and weigh offers for players such as Chris Bassitt.
One exec working for a contender doesn’t believe the list of opportunists will be long.
“Usually, what they ask for is unrealistic,” he said. “They’ll ask for your four best prospects and you say no and they move on and keep the player.”
2. The general mediocrity of the American League could greatly reduce its number of dealers.
The Chicago White Sox are rebuilding and open for business, but the front office of any other team in the AL could convince itself that a playoff bid is possible — because it just seems like there are few, if any, great teams.
The Baltimore Orioles might be the best working example of this phenomenon. The start of the season has been disastrous for Baltimore, which has a rotation that has been pummeled regularly. But it’s hard to imagine the Orioles surrendering early, given their success of the past two seasons and their roster of young position players. So, they could be a club that is unwilling to part ways with talent at the deadline, even if they have a losing record.
3. The teams already viewed as potential subtractors might not have the talent contenders want.
Clubs such as the Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins and White Sox don’t have much to offer in the eyes of rival evaluators. Other teams have monitored Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara and White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr., but both are struggling early in the season. Alcantara has an 8.42 ERA in seven starts since his return from elbow surgery, while Robert’s early slash line is .186/.293/.326, which doesn’t boost other teams’ interest — nor the leverage of the White Sox.
4. It appears the market for outfielders will be very thin.
Typically, the upcoming free agent class serves as a tool to define most of the players who could be traded before that year’s deadline — and quite simply, in the outfield, the pickings beyond Kyle Tucker are few.
The would-be opportunists could take advantage of a really soft outfield market and get value if they’re willing to dangle outfielders under team control beyond this season. For example, the Twins could set a solid price for Buxton and the Jays would probably draw a lot of interest for Daulton Varsho, an elite defender who won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season.
5. Very few good starting pitchers are expected to be available.
If the Cardinals decide to deal players, right-hander Erick Fedde, who has a 3.86 ERA this season, could draw some interest. Fellow right-handed starter Sonny Gray is a three-time All-Star, but his contract is very backloaded — he’s owed $35 million in 2026 — and the last time he was traded to a contender midseason (from the Athletics to New York Yankees in 2017), it did not go well.
6. A Nolan Arenado trade could still be possible.
Conditions are emerging to foster this possibility, if Arenado waives his no-trade clause and if the Cardinals are willing to deal him. Normally, it’s not easy to move a position player with money attached at midseason, but contenders could be interested in acquiring the eight-time All-Star third baseman. The Cubs haven’t found a solution at third base, and the Yankees will soon try DJ LeMahieu in their ongoing attempt to fill the position. The Los Angeles Dodgers waited last season for Max Muncy to turn around a slow start, and he eventually did; this year, they’re waiting again.
Arenado, who killed a possible trade to the Houston Astros last winter, is owed about $24 million for the rest of this year, $27 million in 2026 ($5 million paid by the Rockies) and $15 million in 2027.
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