Rishi Sunak needs to leverage trust on world stage to win over public back home

Published

2 years ago

May 17, 2023

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The prime minister arrived back in Downing Street at 2am on Wednesday morning after a dash to the Council of Europe summit in Iceland to seek more support from European allies on illegal migration.

Seven hours later, Rishi Sunak was back in the air heading to the G7 summit in Japan.

In the plane huddle with journalists shortly after take-off – clutching a Number 10-branded mug of tea – the PM was in good spirits as he spoke of the importance of using this round of global talks with world leaders to discuss driving economic growth, support for Ukraine and presenting a united front on China.

Swapping his typical suit and tie for an unbuttoned white shirt and blue chinos, Mr Sunak appeared relaxed in the midst of an intense week.

But make no mistake about it, this is a leader under intense pressure.

Faced with his first test at the ballot box since becoming leader, the PM has failed.

Seat losses exceeded the Conservatives’ worst nightmare with 1,063 councillors gone, and the projected national vote share is bumping along the Tories’ worst ever performance at local elections – putting Sir Keir Starmer and Labour into Downing Street.

And now, the dissent is beginning to bubble up as colleagues, faced with the prospect of electoral oblivion, lash out.

Speaking at the Conservative Democratic Organisation conference, Priti Patel told activists that “leadership errors cost us dearly in the local elections”, as she pointedly praised Boris Johnson.

Meanwhile, on the eve of Mr Sunak’s trip to the G7, his predecessor Liz Truss has turned up in Taiwan to reiterate her view that the threat of China is being underplayed by the UK government.

Shadow-boxing on foreign policy and doing it in a territory of such sensitivity to Beijing is unhelpful, to say the least (although one government observer gave a little punch back, remarking that a visit from Ms Truss was “not as significant as Nancy Pelosi”).

If the pressure is getting him, the prime minister did a good job of hiding it in the press huddle.

When it came to Ms Truss’ visit, Mr Sunak said he hadn’t “seen the details” of her trip as he reiterated the government position as being “completely aligned in substance and in language with all our allies” when it came to Taiwan.

“We have a very strong, unofficial relationship with Taiwan as our allies do,” he added. “I think that our position is united and aligned with our allies, and will continue.”

But in the backdrop of this summit, there isn’t quite a united front from the G7 when it comes to the approach to China.

President Biden has committed to defending Taiwan should China invade, whilst on a trip to China last month, President Macron warned that Europe should not get “caught up in crises that are not ours”.

The hope from the British camp is that the allies can agree China policy is focused on “de-risking” and not “decoupling” – this is European Commission president Ursula von de Leyen’s approach – as a compromise between President Macron’s position and President Biden’s more hawkish angle.

But what the PM really wants to do with this summit – and the Council of Europe summit too – is to get tangible wins back home to push through his five-point plan in the run-up to the general election.

Because economic co-operation on a global stage gives him better hope that he can turn around the UK economy, end the cost of living crisis, halve inflation and bring in tax cuts before the next election.

Meanwhile, agreeing with Ms von der Leyen to develop a new working relationship between their respective border security agencies – this came out of the Reykjavik summit on Tuesday – helps the PM with his pledge to stop small boats crossings and cut down on illegal migration.

Miles behind Labour in the polls – the latest polling has Starmer 17 points in front – winning on the economy and being seen to at least make inroads on the matter of illegal migration is the only hope Mr Sunak has to claw back ground before the next general election, and he seems to genuinely believe there are signs of optimism.

When quizzed about the Institute of Fiscal Studies prediction that the UK’s tax burden won’t get back to pre-COVID levels for decades, the PM clearly thinks the independent think tank is too pessimistic.

“The IFS will make its own estimates,” he said. “What I would say is recently we’ve seen massive upgrades in our growth estimates from the Bank of England and others.

“You can see that in surveys…optimism is increasing, consumer confidence is increasing. On disposable income if you look at the most recent set of numbers, they are hugely outperforming what people thought.”

The PM is convinced that “things are moving in the right direction” and making it very clear, again, that he is a “low-tax Conservative” who “wants to bring people’s taxes down”.

Having reset the UK’s relations with key allies after the difficult Johnson and Truss periods, now Mr Sunak needs to leverage all he can get to bank wins for him back home.

This is a prime minister who is showing on the world stage he is a trusted and well-regarded ally, but he seems further than ever away from sealing the deal with the British public after six months in office, and with time running out.

World

Musk sued over buying Twitter shares at artificially low prices by US finance regulator

Published

7 hours ago

January 15, 2025

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Musk sued over buying Twitter shares at artificially low prices by US finance regulator

Elon Musk is being sued for failing to disclose his purchase of more than 5% of Twitter stock in a timely fashion.

The world’s richest man bought the stock in March 2022 and the complaint by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said the delay allowed him to continue buying Twitter stock at artificially low prices.

In papers filed in Washington DC federal court, the SEC said the move allowed Mr Musk to underpay by at least $150m (£123m).

The commission wants Mr Musk to pay a civil fine and give up profits he was not entitled to.

In response to the lawsuit a lawyer for the multi-billionaire said: “Mr Musk has done nothing wrong and everyone sees this sham for what it is.”

An SEC rule requires investors to disclose within 10 calendar days when they cross a 5% ownership threshold.

The SEC said Mr Musk did not disclose his state until 4 April 2022, 11 days after the deadline – by which point he owned more than 9% of Twitter’s shares.

Twitter’s share price rose by more than 27% following Mr Musk’s disclosure, the SEC added.

Mr Musk later purchased Twitter for $44bn (£36bn) in October 2022 and renamed the social media site X.

Since the election of Donald Trump, Mr Musk has been put in charge of leading a newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) alongside former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

The president-elect said the department would work to reduce government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures and restructure federal agencies.

World

Hamas accepts Gaza peace deal as Israeli official says agreement is close but ‘not there yet’

Published

7 hours ago

January 15, 2025

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Hamas accepts Gaza peace deal as Israeli official says agreement is close but 'not there yet'

US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.

Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.

A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.

Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.

Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.

An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.

More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.

Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?

Biden hails possibility of agreement

President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.

“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.

“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”

Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.

Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions

Trump: ‘We’re very close’

President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.

“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.

“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.

“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”

Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal

Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.

They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.

“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.

Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.

Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.

Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’

Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.

“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.

Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.

“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.

“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”

The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.

World

Gaza ceasefire: What does the draft agreement say and how many hostages would be released?

Published

7 hours ago

January 15, 2025

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Gaza ceasefire: What does the draft agreement say and how many hostages would be released?

A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.

President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.

The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.

It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.

Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.

Hostages to be returned

In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.

These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.

Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.

In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.

An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.

Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza

The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.

Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.

The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.

Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.

“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.

What will happen to Gaza in the future?

There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.

“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.

“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”

The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.

In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.

Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.