Rishi Sunak needs to leverage trust on world stage to win over public back home

Published

2 years ago

May 17, 2023

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The prime minister arrived back in Downing Street at 2am on Wednesday morning after a dash to the Council of Europe summit in Iceland to seek more support from European allies on illegal migration.

Seven hours later, Rishi Sunak was back in the air heading to the G7 summit in Japan.

In the plane huddle with journalists shortly after take-off – clutching a Number 10-branded mug of tea – the PM was in good spirits as he spoke of the importance of using this round of global talks with world leaders to discuss driving economic growth, support for Ukraine and presenting a united front on China.

Swapping his typical suit and tie for an unbuttoned white shirt and blue chinos, Mr Sunak appeared relaxed in the midst of an intense week.

But make no mistake about it, this is a leader under intense pressure.

Faced with his first test at the ballot box since becoming leader, the PM has failed.

Seat losses exceeded the Conservatives’ worst nightmare with 1,063 councillors gone, and the projected national vote share is bumping along the Tories’ worst ever performance at local elections – putting Sir Keir Starmer and Labour into Downing Street.

And now, the dissent is beginning to bubble up as colleagues, faced with the prospect of electoral oblivion, lash out.

Speaking at the Conservative Democratic Organisation conference, Priti Patel told activists that “leadership errors cost us dearly in the local elections”, as she pointedly praised Boris Johnson.

Meanwhile, on the eve of Mr Sunak’s trip to the G7, his predecessor Liz Truss has turned up in Taiwan to reiterate her view that the threat of China is being underplayed by the UK government.

Shadow-boxing on foreign policy and doing it in a territory of such sensitivity to Beijing is unhelpful, to say the least (although one government observer gave a little punch back, remarking that a visit from Ms Truss was “not as significant as Nancy Pelosi”).

If the pressure is getting him, the prime minister did a good job of hiding it in the press huddle.

When it came to Ms Truss’ visit, Mr Sunak said he hadn’t “seen the details” of her trip as he reiterated the government position as being “completely aligned in substance and in language with all our allies” when it came to Taiwan.

“We have a very strong, unofficial relationship with Taiwan as our allies do,” he added. “I think that our position is united and aligned with our allies, and will continue.”

But in the backdrop of this summit, there isn’t quite a united front from the G7 when it comes to the approach to China.

President Biden has committed to defending Taiwan should China invade, whilst on a trip to China last month, President Macron warned that Europe should not get “caught up in crises that are not ours”.

The hope from the British camp is that the allies can agree China policy is focused on “de-risking” and not “decoupling” – this is European Commission president Ursula von de Leyen’s approach – as a compromise between President Macron’s position and President Biden’s more hawkish angle.

But what the PM really wants to do with this summit – and the Council of Europe summit too – is to get tangible wins back home to push through his five-point plan in the run-up to the general election.

Because economic co-operation on a global stage gives him better hope that he can turn around the UK economy, end the cost of living crisis, halve inflation and bring in tax cuts before the next election.

Meanwhile, agreeing with Ms von der Leyen to develop a new working relationship between their respective border security agencies – this came out of the Reykjavik summit on Tuesday – helps the PM with his pledge to stop small boats crossings and cut down on illegal migration.

Miles behind Labour in the polls – the latest polling has Starmer 17 points in front – winning on the economy and being seen to at least make inroads on the matter of illegal migration is the only hope Mr Sunak has to claw back ground before the next general election, and he seems to genuinely believe there are signs of optimism.

When quizzed about the Institute of Fiscal Studies prediction that the UK’s tax burden won’t get back to pre-COVID levels for decades, the PM clearly thinks the independent think tank is too pessimistic.

“The IFS will make its own estimates,” he said. “What I would say is recently we’ve seen massive upgrades in our growth estimates from the Bank of England and others.

“You can see that in surveys…optimism is increasing, consumer confidence is increasing. On disposable income if you look at the most recent set of numbers, they are hugely outperforming what people thought.”

The PM is convinced that “things are moving in the right direction” and making it very clear, again, that he is a “low-tax Conservative” who “wants to bring people’s taxes down”.

Having reset the UK’s relations with key allies after the difficult Johnson and Truss periods, now Mr Sunak needs to leverage all he can get to bank wins for him back home.

This is a prime minister who is showing on the world stage he is a trusted and well-regarded ally, but he seems further than ever away from sealing the deal with the British public after six months in office, and with time running out.

World

Trump set for truly consequential week for his presidency and his ability to effect change

Published

10 hours ago

May 12, 2025

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Trump set for truly consequential week for his presidency and his ability to effect change

It has been an extraordinary few hours which may well set the tone for a hugely consequential week ahead.

In the time that it took me to fly from London to Saudi Arabia, where President Donald Trump will begin a pivotal Middle East tour this week, a flurry of news has emerged on a range of key global challenges.

• On the Gaza war: The Trump administration has confirmed it’s holding talks with Hamas, which says it will release a hostage amid renewed hopes of a ceasefire.

• On the Ukraine war: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul – this announcement came minutes after Trump urged Zelenskyy to agree to the meeting.

• On the China-US trade war: The White House says the two countries have agreed to a “trade deal”. China said the talks, in Geneva, were “candid, in-depth and constructive”.

All three of these developments represent dramatic shifts in three separate challenges and hint at the remarkable influence the US president is having globally.

This sets the ground for what could be a truly consequential week for Trump’s presidency and his ability to effect change.

Ask Mark Stone a question

With his unique style, Trump is seeking to align numerous stars as he embarks on his first foreign diplomatic trip of his second presidency.

For days, it’s been unclear how the week ahead would unfold and which global challenge would be dominant.

The Saudi government has been instrumental as a broker in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Qatar has been a mediator in the Gaza war.

Trump will visit both countries this week.

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Putin under pressure?

On Ukraine, Putin held a late-night news conference at the Kremlin on Saturday at which he made the surprise proposal of talks with Zelenskyy in Istanbul this Thursday.

But he rejected European and US calls for an immediate ceasefire.

The move was widely interpreted as a delay tactic.

Trump then issued a social media post urging Zelenskyy to accept the Russian proposal; effectively to call Putin’s bluff.

The American president wrote: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly! I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!”

Within minutes, Zelenskyy responded, agreeing to the talks.

“We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses,” Zelenskyy wrote on X.

The prospect of Putin and Zelenskyy together in Istanbul on Thursday is remarkable.

It raises the possibility that Trump would want to be there too.

Israel’s war in Gaza

On Gaza, it’s been announced that US envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Israel on Monday to finalise details for the release of Idan Alexander, an Israeli-American hostage being held by Hamas.

The development comes after it was confirmed that Mr Witkoff has been holding discussions with Israel, Qatar and Egypt and, through them, with Hamas.

The talks focused on a possible Gaza hostage deal and larger peace discussions for a ceasefire.

Just days ago, Israel announced a new military plan to move back into Gaza.

When do candid talks become a trade deal?

Meanwhile, officials from the United States and China have been holding talks in Geneva, Switzerland, to resolve their trade war, which was instigated by Trump’s tariffs against China.

Late on Sunday evening, the White House released a statement claiming that a trade deal had been struck.

In a written statement, titled “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva”, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said: “I’m happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks… We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive. We had the vice premier, two vice ministers, who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson, and myself. And I spoke to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson, last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. So, there will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”

Beijing Global Times newspaper quoted the Chinese vice premier as saying that the talks were candid, in-depth and constructive.

However, the Chinese fell short of calling it a trade deal.

A Qatari gift

In a separate development, US media reports say that Qatar is preparing to gift Trump a Boeing 747 from its royal fleet, which he would use as a replacement for the existing and aging Air Force One plane.

The Qatari government says no deal has been finalised, but the development is already causing controversy because of the optics of accepting gifts of this value.

World

Why Trump blinked in US-China trade war

Published

10 hours ago

May 12, 2025

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Of all the fronts in Donald Trump’s trade war, none was as dramatic and economically threatening as the sky-high tariffs he imposed on China.

There are a couple of reasons: first, because China is and was the single biggest importer of goods into the US and, second, because of the sheer height of the tariffs imposed by the White House in recent months.

In short, tariffs of over 100% were tantamount to a total embargo on goods coming from the United States’ main trading partner. That would have had enormous economic implications, not just for the US but every other country around the world (these are the world’s biggest and second-biggest economies, after all).

Trump latest: US and China slash tariffs in trade war de-escalation

So the truce announced on Monday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent is undoubtedly a very big deal indeed.

In short, China will still face an extra 30% tariffs (the 20% levies cast as punishment for China’s involvement in fentanyl imports and the 10% “floor” set on “Liberation Day”) on top of the residual 10% average from the Biden era.

But the rest of the extra tariffs will be paused for 90 days. China, in turn, has suspended its own retaliatory tariffs on the US.

The market has responded as you would probably have expected, with share prices leaping in relief. But that raises a question: is the trade war now over? Now that the two sides have blinked, can globalisation continue more or less as it had before?

That, it turns out, is a trickier and more complex question than it might first seem.

For one thing, even if one were to assume this is a permanent truce rather than a suspended one, it still leaves tariffs considerably higher than they were only last year. And China faces tariffs far higher than most other countries (tot up the existing ones and the Trump era ones and China faces average tariffs of around 40%, while the average for most countries is between 8% and 14%, according to Capital Economics).

In other words, the US is still implementing an economic policy designed to increase the cost of doing business with China, even if it no longer attempts to prevent it altogether. The fact that last week’s trade agreement with the UK contains clauses seemingly designed to encourage it to raise trade barriers against China for reasons of “security” only reinforces this suspicion. The trade war is still simmering, even if it’s no longer as hot as it was a few days ago.

And more broadly, the deeper impact of the trade rollercoaster in recent months is unlikely to disappear altogether. Companies remain more nervous about investing in factories and expansions in the face of such deep economic instability. No-one is entirely sure the White House won’t just U-turn once again.

That being said, it’s hard not to escape the conclusion that the US president has blinked in this trade war. In the face of a potential recession, he has pulled back from the scariest and most damaging of his tariffs, earlier and to a greater extent than many had expected.

World

Zelenskyy’s offer to meet Putin raises the stakes in this already high-stakes game of diplomacy

Published

13 hours ago

May 12, 2025

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Zelenskyy's offer to meet Putin raises the stakes in this already high-stakes game of diplomacy

Diplomacy over Ukraine has become even more of a game of high-stakes poker.

In the early hours of Sunday, Vladimir Putin played his hand, rejecting demands for a ceasefire and proposing direct talks in Istanbul instead.

That was in response to the opening gambit made on Saturday by Ukraine and its European allies.

Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer said they were “calling Putin out”, that if he was really serious about peace, he should agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting on Monday.

And they thought they had Donald Trump’s backing until he made his move.

Late Sunday, he drove a cart and horses through claims of western unity, coming down on Putin’s side.

Ukraine, he said, should submit to the Russian leader’s suggestion of talks.

“Ukraine should agree to this – immediately”, he posted. Then: “I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin…”

So much for the Coalition of the Willing having Putin where they wanted him.

Trump let him off the hook.

All eyes were then on President Zelenskyy, who has now in turn dramatically raised the stakes.

He will go to Istanbul, he said, and wait there for Vladimir Putin.

Over to you, Vladimir.

The fast-paced diplomacy aside, the last twenty-four hours have brought Europe closer to a moment of truth.

They thought they had Donald Trump’s support, and yet even with 30 nations demanding an unconditional ceasefire, the US president seemed, in the end, to side with the Russian leader.

He has helped Putin get out of a hole.

Yet again, Trump could not be counted on to pressure Vladimir Putin to end this war.

If America is no longer a reliable partner over Ukraine, Europe may need to go it alone, whatever the cost.