Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are gearing up for likely the biggest transformation the auto industry has ever seen. With electric vehicles expected to continue replacing ICE vehicle sales at a record pace, both automakers are striving to boost production significantly by middecade. Will GM and Ford hit their EV targets? Let’s see what analysts have to say.
Ford targets a 2 million EV run rate by 2026
After selling just 10,866 electric vehicles in the first three months of 2023, Ford lost its position as the second-largest EV maker in the US to GM.
The lower output was mainly due to downtime at its plant in Mexico to boost production of the Mustang Mach E in the second half of the year. As a result, Mach-E sales fell 20% after a strong run in 2022. The automaker’s highly demanded F-150 Lightning also saw lower output after halting production earlier in the year.
Ford’s Model e electric vehicle segment generated $700 million in revenue, down 27% YOY. The unit’s operating losses grew to $722 million, more than doubling compared to Q1 2022.
Despite the setback, on the earnings call that followed, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jones questioned Ford CEO Jim Farley on his EV targets, saying:
I just get a little nervous with the 2 million unit capacity target that you have hanging out there for the second half of 2026, which, just in my opinion is a crazy high number.
He asked, “Can I get you to verify that volume target?” Farley responded, “Yes, absolutely.”
Farley believes Ford will be able to cut costs on its current EV lineup and implement what it has learned to enhance efficiency with its second-generation models, booting output, and profitability. For example, Farley says Ford brought the bill of material on the Mustang Mach-E down by $5,000.
Ford F-150 Lightning (Source: Ford)
With Ford projecting a $3 billion loss this year on its EV unit and pricing pressure mounting from Tesla’s recent price cuts, many doubt the company’s ability to hit its goals.
Ford believes its Model e division will achieve an 8% operating margin by the end of 2026, compared to a negative margin rate of 102% in the first quarter.
Morningstar analyst (via Bloomberg) says the “skepticism is a byproduct” of Ford’s results over the past few years, explaining:
People are saying: “It’s great you’re saying 8%, but until you do it, I just can’t believe you.”
Farley will try to win over analysts and investors next week as the company highlights its $50 billion EV investment plan.
GM
On the other hand, GM sold over 20,000 EVs for the first time in three months in Q1. The growth was mainly driven by Chevy Bolt EV and EUV sales, reaching 19,700 alone.
Although GM revealed it would be ending Bolt EV and EUV production later this year, the company has several high-volume models launching this year, including the Chevy Equinox EV, Chevy Blazer EV, and Chevy Silverado EV based on its scalable Ultium platform.
Chevy Equinox EV (source: GM)
GM reaffirmed its target of having the capacity to power one million EVs by 2025, but a new forecast and analysis from Reuters suggests it may be a challenge.
According to Sam Fiorani, head of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, says GM’s one million EV capacity target “will be difficult, based on [GM’s] planned battery production.”
GM expects its Ultium Cells battery plant in Ohio to reach full capacity by the end of the year, with its second in Spring Hill, Tennessee, expected to come online next year. A third is slated to open in early 2025 in Lansing, Michigan, with a total capacity of the three reaching at least 135 GWh, or enough to power over 1.3 million EVs annually.
However, with a slow ramp-up expected, AFS predicts the GMs battery plants will only have 58 GWh capacity or enough for about half (550,000) of its goal.
Fiorani added GMs annual targets might be limited by its ability to secure raw batteries for batteries. Despite this, GM had previously said it had enough battery materials to reach its 1 million EV goal by 2025.
Wedbush auto analyst Dan Ives chimed in, saying, “We believe GMs targets are hittable despite hurdles to get there.”
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Following approval from Transport Canada, EV startup Workhorse will be bringing the W56 and W750 model electric delivery vans to commercial truck dealers in Canada as early as this spring.
“This is a major step forward for Workhorse,” says Josh Anderson, Workhorse’s chief technology officer in a press statement. “Pre-clearance from Transport Canada opens up a large new market for our products throughout Canada, including with fleets that operate across borders in North America.”
Despite that uncertainty, Workhorse execs remain upbeat. “We’re excited that our electric step vans can now reach Canadian roads and highways, providing reliable, zero-emission solutions that customers can depend on,” added Anderson.
Canadian pricing has yet to be announced.
Electrek’s Take
FedEx electric delivery vehicle; via Workhorse.
There’s no other way to say it: the Trump/Musk co-presidency is disrupting a lot of companies’ plans – and that’s especially true across North American borders. But in all this chaos and turmoil there undoubtedly lies opportunity, and it will be interesting to see who ends up on top.
The new Liebherr S1 Vision 140-ton hauler is unlike any heavy haul truck currently on the market – primarily because the giant, self-propelled, single-axle autonomous bucket doesn’t look anything like any truck you’ve ever seen.
Liebherr says its latest heavy equipment concept was born from a desire to rethink truck design with a focus only on core functions. The resulting S1 Vision is primarily just a single axle with two powerful electric motors sending power to a pair of massive airless tires designed carry loads up to 131 tonnes (just over 140 tons).
The design enables rapid maintenance, as important components easily accessible for quick servicing. Wear parts can be replaced efficiently, and the electric drive significantly reduces maintenance work. This helps to minimise downtimes and increases operational efficiency.
LIEBHERR
Because of its versatility, durability, and ability to perform zero-turn maneuvers that other equipment simply can’t, the Liebherr S1 Vision can be adapted for various applications, including earthmoving, mining, and even agriculture. There’s also a nonzero chance of this technology finding applications supporting other on-site equipment through charging or fuel delivery.
The S1 accomplishes that trick safely with the help of an automatic load leveling system that ensures maximum stability, even on bumpy or rough terrain. The company says this technology significantly reduces the risk of tipping while providing smooth and secure operation across various environments.
The HD arm of Hyundai has just released the first official images of the new, battery-electric HX19e mini excavator – the first ever production electric excavator from the global South Korean manufacturer.
The HX19e will be the first all-electric asset to enter series production at Hyundai Construction Equipment, with manufacturing set to begin this April.
The new HX19e will be offered with either a 32 kWh or 40 kWh li-ion battery pack – which, according to Hyundai, is nearly double the capacity offered by its nearest competitor (pretty sure that’s not correct –Ed.). The 40kWh battery allows for up to 6 hours and 40 minutes of continuous operation between charges, with a break time top-up on delivering full shift usability.
Those batteries send power to a 13 kW (17.5 hp) electric motor that drives an open-center hydraulic system. Hyundai claims the system delivers job site performance that is at least equal to, if not better than, that of its diesel-powered HX19A mini excavator.
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To that end, the Hyundai XH19e offers the same 16 kN bucket breakout force and a slightly higher 9.4 kN (just over 2100 lb-ft) dipper arm breakout force. The maximum digging depth is 7.6 feet, and the maximum digging reach is 12.9 feet. Hyundai will offer the new electric excavator with just four selectable options:
enclosed cab vs. open canopy
32 or 40 kWh battery capacity
All HX19es will ship with a high standard specification that includes safety valves on the main boom, dipper arm, and dozer blade hydraulic cylinders, as well as two-way auxiliary hydraulic piping allows the machine to be used with a range of commercially available implements. The hydraulics needed to operate a quick coupler, LED booms lights, rotating beacons, an MP3 radio with USB connectivity, and an operator’s seat with mechanical suspension are also standard.
HX19e electric mini excavator; via Hyundai Construction Equipment.
The ability to operate indoors, underground, or in environments like zoos and hospitals were keeping noise levels down is of critical importance to the success of an operation makes electric equipment assets like these coming from Hyundai a must-have for fleet operators and construction crews that hope to remain competitive in the face of ever-increasing noise regulations. The fact that these are cleaner, safer, and cheaper to operate is just icing on that cake.