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The energy price cap is set to remain more than £1,000 higher than the average bill before the COVID pandemic, according to a closely-watched forecast.

Ahead of the industry regulator’s determination on the price cap level due next week, energy research specialist Cornwall Insight said it saw the cap for a typical household at the equivalent of £2,053 per year from July-September.

That was down from the £3,280 level set by Ofgem for March-June and reflected continuing falls in wholesale energy costs, particularly for gas, over the year to date which accelerated as winter temperatures gave way.

The price cap does not currently apply due to help for energy bills from the government.

However, the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), which limits a typical household’s energy bill to £2,500 equivalent per year, concludes at the end of June.

Household bills will revert to the price cap from then.

The Cornwall Insight modelling shows a decrease of £1,227 from the April cap level but experts say the outlook for prices remains clouded by the effects of the war in Ukraine and domestic energy security concerns across Europe.

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Energy giants’ profits may have peaked

“Despite the cap falling from the sky-high prices of the past two years, the figure remains over £1,000 per year more than the price cap levels seen prior to the pandemic”, the report said.

“We do not currently expect bills to return to pre-2020 levels before the end of the decade at the earliest.

“However, we hope to see the reappearance of more competitive fixed-rate energy tariffs as prices begin to stabilise, providing consumers with additional options to manage their energy costs.

“Prices remain subject to wholesale energy market volatility, and our reliance on energy imports (during the winter months) means geopolitical incidents could still have a significant impact on energy prices.”

Current modelling suggests the cap from October would rise but only by a token amount compared to the bill shocks of the past year.

Energy costs have been the single biggest headache for the global economy since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year exacerbated existing upwards pressure on global oil and gas prices.

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They have fed their way down supply chains to drive up wider manufacturing and transport costs, leaving businesses and households at the mercy of rising bills across the board.

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Food and fuel prices investigated

Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight said of the expected energy bills ahead: “Under these predictions, an average consumer would see bills drop by around £450 compared to the existing levels of the EPG, with bills currently predicted to stay relatively stable over the next nine months.

“As many people continue to suffer from the cost-of-living crisis, this will hopefully bring some cautious optimism that the era of exceptionally high energy bills is behind us.”

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Post Office agrees fresh extension to scandal-hit Fujitsu Horizon deal

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Post Office agrees fresh extension to scandal-hit Fujitsu Horizon deal

The Post Office has agreed a further extension to its scandal-hit software deal with the Japanese company Fujitsu as it plots a move to a rival supplier in the next couple of years.

Sky News has learnt that the Post Office, which is owned by the government, is to pay another £41m to Fujitsu for the use of the Horizon system from next April until 31 March 2027.

The move comes as Post Office bosses prepare to sever the company’s partnership with Fujitsu, which is under pressure to pay hundreds of millions of pounds for its part in the scandal.

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Hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongfully imprisoned for fraud and theft because of flaws with Fujitsu’s software, which it subsequently emerged were suspected by executives involved in its management.

Last week, Sky News revealed that Sir Alan Bates, who led efforts to seek justice for the victims of what has been dubbed Britain’s biggest miscarriage of justice, had settled his multimillion pound compensation claim with the government.

Sir Alan received a seven-figure sum, which one source said may have amounted to between £4m and £5m.

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In a statement issued in response to an enquiry from Sky News, a Post Office spokesperson said: “The Post Office has agreed with Fujitsu a one-year bridging extension to the Horizon contract for the period 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027.

“We are committed to moving away from Fujitsu and off the Horizon system as soon as possible.

“We are bringing in a different supplier to take over Horizon whilst a new system is developed, and this process is well underway.

“We expect to award a contract for a new supplier to manage Horizon by July 2026, according to current timelines.”

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Will Post Office victims be cleared?

Fujitsu executives have acknowledged that the company has a “moral obligation” to contribute financially as a result of the Horizon scandal, but has yet to agree a final figure with the government.

It is said to be unlikely to do so until the conclusion of Sir Wyn Williams’ public inquiry.

The Department for Business and Trade has been contacted for comment.

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Diageo taps former Tesco boss ‘Drastic Dave’ Lewis to lead fightback

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Diageo taps former Tesco boss 'Drastic Dave' Lewis to lead fightback

Former Tesco boss Sir Dave Lewis is to become the new chief executive of Diageo, the struggling FTSE 100 drinks giant.

The world’s largest spirits maker, which counts Guinness and Johnnie Walker whisky among its stable of brands, said he would assume the role in January.

The search for a new boss began in July when Debra Crew was effectively ousted after two years in charge.

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The company’s share price fell 40% during her tenure as the industry grappled a drastic decline in the number of people drinking at home following the COVID pandemic and, more recently, the US trade war.

A planned fightback by Ms Crew was seen by investors as failing to go far enough.

Sir Dave led a six-year turnaround of Tesco, the UK’s biggest retailer, from 2014.

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He earned the nickname ‘Drastic Dave’ in his previous role at Unilever, the consumer goods giant, where he was credited with achieving similar success through cost-cutting and targeted marketing.

Diageo’s market positions have fared better than rivals during the downturn but its shares are still hovering around lows not seen for a decade.

Debra Crew was appointed chief executive after the sudden death of Sir Ivan Menezes in 2023. Pic: Diageo
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Debra Crew was appointed chief executive after the sudden death of Sir Ivan Menezes in 2023. Pic: Diageo

Only last week, the company downgraded its sales and profit outlook for next year.

Diageo chair John Manzoni told investors: “The Board unanimously felt that Dave has both the extensive CEO experience, and the proven leadership skills in building and marketing world-leading brands, that is right for Diageo at this time.”

Sir Dave said of the task facing him: “Diageo is a world leading business with a portfolio of very strong brands, and I am delighted to be joining the team.

“The market faces some headwinds but there are also significant opportunities. I look forward to working with the team to face these challenges and realise some of the opportunities in a way which creates shareholder value.”

Diageo shares were 7% up on news of the appointment.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, responded: “Lewis brings deep experience in consumer brands from his time leading Tesco and decades at Unilever, though he lacks direct exposure to the spirits industry.

“Investors may welcome his strong marketing pedigree, but any major strategic reset will take time, leaving near-term focus on navigating tough trading conditions.”

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Carlyle seizes control of online retailer Very Group

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Carlyle seizes control of online retailer Very Group

The unravelling of the Barclay family’s business empire will continue this week when Carlyle, the US-based investment giant, formally takes control of The Very Group, one of Britain’s biggest online retailers.

Sky News has learnt that the company, which boasts annual revenues of over £2bn and is chaired by Nadhim Zahawi, the former Conservative chancellor, will announce on Monday that Carlyle has become its controlling shareholder.

IMI, the Abu Dhabi-based media group which has been part of efforts to take control of The Daily Telegraph since 2023, will remain a lender to The Very Group.

Sources said the company’s directors had held a board meeting on Sunday to ratify the changes.

The transaction brings to an end more than 20 years of the Barclay family’s involvement with the business, which was known as Littlewoods when it last changed hands in 2002 in a £750m deal.

Nasdaq-listed Carlyle injected several hundred million pounds into Very Group’s capital structure, paving the way for it to take ownership control under the terms of the financing.

Sources said the change of control would provide the online retailer with a stronger capital base and greater financial flexibility to support a concerted growth effort.

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Previously known as Shop Direct, Very Group employs thousands of people, and sells general merchandise under the Very and Littlewoods brands, encompassing electrical goods, homewares, fashion and toys.

It has 4.4million customers and operates a major consumer finance business to help shoppers manage their payments.

Mr Zahawi was appointed as the company’s chairman last year, days after he announced that he was standing down as the MP for Stratford-on-Avon at the July 2024 general election.

He replaced Aidan Barclay, a senior member of the family which has owned the business for 23 years.

In its latest full-year results, group chief executive Robbie Feather announced a 16% increase in adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to £307m.

Carlyle’s move to take control of Very Group was revealed by Sky News in the summer.

Earlier this year, the company borrowed a further £600m from Arini, a Mayfair-based fund, as it sought to stave off a cash crunch and buy itself breathing space.

The Barclay family drew up plans to hire bankers to run an auction of Very Group earlier this year, but a process was never formally launched.

Retail industry insiders have long speculated that the business was likely to be valued in the region of £2.5bn – below the valuation which the Barclay family was holding out for in an auction which took place several years ago.

The Barclays, who used to own London’s Ritz hotel, have already lost control of other corporate assets including the Yodel parcel delivery service, as well as the Telegraph newspapers.

Carlyle, which declined to comment, could hold onto the business for a significant period before looking to offload it.

Very Group also declined to comment on Sunday.

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