Derby winner Mage opens as Preakness favorite
HALETHORPE, Md. — Kentucky Derby winner Mage is facing a fresh set of horses in the Preakness in a situation not seen in more than half a century, and he’s the early favorite to beat them.
Mage was installed as the 8-5 morning line favorite at the post position draw Monday. He’s the only horse in the field of eight set to take part in the second race of the Triple Crown two weeks after running in the Derby.
It’s the first Preakness since 1969 with just one Derby horse. Majestic Prince won each of those races 54 years ago, a feat Mage will try to duplicate.
“Everyone has their own agendas for the rest of the year and the schedule, what races they want to run in,” co-owner Ramiro Restrepo said. “All we can really control is our house. The horse is doing great, which is the most important thing. That gave us the green light to run, and whoever they line up in there is who we’ve got to race. That’s all we can focus on.”
Mage will face seven fresh horses in an attempt to keep open the possibility of the first Triple Crown winner since Justify in 2018. He drew the No. 3 post for the 1 3/16-mile, $1.65 million race.
“We’re good,” assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado Jr. said. “I’m pretty content with it. I was more concerned at the Derby with a 20-horse field. Eight horses now, I think every horse is going to have a decent shot and hopefully the best wins. That’s what horse racing is about.”
Mage won the the first jewel of the Triple Crown at odds of 15-1 as one of 18 horses in the race, which came after seven fatalities at Churchill Downs in a 10-day span — including Derby contender Wild on Ice — raised safety questions. Five were scratched for various reasons the week of, including favorite Forte hours before when Kentucky officials had questions about a bruised right front foot.
The Preakness field includes National Treasure, who was not eligible for the Derby because trainer Bob Baffert is serving a two-year suspension from Churchill Downs. Medina Spirit, who failed a postrace drug test in 2021 to prompt the suspension, was Baffert’s last horse in the Preakness, which he has won a record-tying seven times.
National Treasure drew the inside No. 1 post and is the third choice on the morning line at 4-1. First Mission, trained by Brad Cox, drew the outside No. 8 post and has the second-shortest odds at 5-2.
But Mage is the horse to beat.
“It’s going to be hard,” said John Salzman Jr., co-owner and trainer of 20-1 long shot Coffeewithchris. “He does come usually from back far. But at Pimlico it’s tough with the sharper turns, and the lack of speed here in this race seems to be a little in our favor. I’m not saying I’m going to beat him because he is a super horse, but what I like is he has to come back in two weeks and with the shipping [from Louisville] and with everything, I’m here waiting and I’m fresh.”
Delgado, who works for his father, Gustavo Delgado Sr., wasn’t sure if Mage would have run in the Preakness if not for the Derby win. But he and Restrepo are unconcerned about what-if scenarios and who else is in the race.
“I haven’t paid too much attention to who’s running, who’s not, and that happens when you win,” Delgado said. “You worry about the horse and keeping him happy because you know you’ll probably be the favorite, so you focus on your horse. You have to beat them all.”
The Derby was the first U.S. Triple Crown win for his father, a Hall of Fame trainer in his native Venezuela. Jockey Javier Castellano is set to ride the colt again after winning the Derby for the first time in his 16th try.
Restrepo said he was not worried about how much speed is in the Preakness and will let Castellano handle any on-track adjustments.
“I don’t ride the horse,” he said. “I can’t ride a pony, so I’m going to allow our Hall of Famer to make that call and make those decisions.”
Between National Treasure and Mage, Chase the Chaos drew the No. 2 post and is the longest shot on the board at odds of 50-1. No. 4 is Coffeewithchris, No. 5 is Red Route One (10-1), No. 6 is Perform (15-1) and Blazing Sevens is No. 7 (6-1).
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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