Vladimir Putin’s ‘undefeatable’ missile was a costly illusion – the West can’t make the same mistake
As Western supplies of high-tech weapons flow into Ukraine in preparation for the anticipated spring offensive, Russia is also trying to bolster its arsenal.
It has resorted to trading SU-35 fighter jets to Iran in return for continued supply of Iranian Shahid 136 attack drones, and also fielded state-of-the-art missile systems for the first time.
But will these radical steps make a decisive impact on the course of the war?
Ukraine war latest: Putin claims West trying to break up Russia
The Iranian attack drones are not sophisticated, or expensive, but do enable Russia to maintain nightly pressure on Ukraine’s limited supplies of air defence missiles.
However, such missiles are more of an “irritation” to Ukraine and have limited military utility.
In contrast, Russia’s latest generation of high-tech weapons – the KILLJOY Air-Launched Hypersonic ballistic missile, described by President Vladimir Putin as “undefeatable” – appeared to offer Moscow’s forces the chance to scythe through Ukrainian defences with impunity.
Before the KILLJOY was used, the West could only speculate as to the missile’s capabilities, and thus it held considerable mystique and deterrence capability.
However, the moment it was used, the West was able to analyse its capability, its limitations and its vulnerabilities – and on 3 May, it appears the Ukrainians managed to shoot one down, with several more suffering a similar fate over the following days.
A Russian sailor on a navy frigate said to be armed with hypersonic weapons
West can’t risk exposing their hand
The KILLJOY would have taken years – and billions of dollars – to develop, yet much of the value lay in its potential.
Nations invest in credible military capability to deter potential aggressors. Secret weapon programmes sow seeds of doubt in the minds of enemies, even if actual capability falls some way short of that anticipated.
As a result, the West is very careful to limit the level of combat capability deployed to avoid “exposing their hand”, and limit the potential for donated weapons to find their way onto the local black market – as is the risk in Ukraine.
Western war fighters routinely do not have access to the very latest capability in conflicts such as Afghanistan, to preserve state-of-the-art high-tech weapons for any future war of national survival.
The UK’s Storm Shadow is a very capable missile, but the technology is 25 years old, and the UK is planning a midlife upgrade in the near future.
As a result, although the British government’s decision to gift Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine offered them a unique long-range strike capability, the UK was limiting the risk of compromising national capability.
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What are Storm Shadow missiles?
Likewise, the US Patriot air defence system was first fielded in 1986, and although it has been upgraded regularly, the system deployed into Ukraine is very unlikely to be the latest generation.
Russia has claimed to have destroyed a Patriot system defending Kyiv, potentially exposing the limitations of this potent air defence system.
However, if indeed the Patriot was damaged in a Russian attack, the damage must have been light as the Patriot appears to be back up and running again.
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Holding back military capability is not a new concept. In the Second World War, the allies cracked the Enigma code, which enabled intercept of all German traffic.
However, the allies were very careful to limit exploitation of Enigma – as if Germany knew it had been compromised, this vital intelligence would be lost to the allies.
Lives were lost to maintain this most sensitive secret, and that same philosophy prevails today.
Technology provides the West an asymmetric military advantage, which must be protected.
Putin’s folly was to believe his own hype – the “undefeatable” missile has proven an expensive illusion.
World
Ten explosions near international airport in India-administered part of Kashmir, officials say
Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.
The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.
Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.
An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.
It comes as tensions between India and Pakistan across the line of control around the region of Kashmir have boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.
On Wednesday morning, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.
The retaliation came weeks after 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen in an India-administered part of Kashmir last month.
The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.
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Explained: India-Pakistan conflict
Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.
India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.
Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.
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Standing on Red Square, this was an intimidating sight, which felt much more like a celebration of war rather than peace.
I could feel the ground shake as the tanks rolled past, their caterpillar tracks on the ancient cobbles providing a deafening clatter.
The hairs on the back of my neck stood up in fear as the phalanxes of troops roared “Hurrah” in response to their commander in chief.
And the sight of combat drones being paraded on their launchers was actually quite sickening. Weapons that have been at the forefront of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were paraded in a show of pomp and patriotism.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin watch the procession. Pic: Reuters
Ukraine war latest: Putin welcomes Xi at Victory Day parade
For the rest of Europe, the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War has been a celebration of peace, but this felt much more like a celebration of war.
And it wasn’t just military hardware on display here, but the very identity of modern Russia.
Pic: Reuters
For this is a country that is now defined by its military and its memory. The glory and sacrifice of 1945 have been weaponised to give credence to Russia’s current course and to make people believe that victory is their right.
For Russians, it served as a rallying cry and there was applause when the troops who have fought against Ukraine marched past.
But for those watching in Kyiv and other European capitals, it was an overt warning that Moscow has no intention of backing down.
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Putin hails sacrifice of Russian troops
The parade was considerably larger in scale than in recent years, when units and hardware have been needed on the battlefield. I think it was a deliberate attempt to project an image of confidence, and so was Vladimir Putin‘s positioning of his guests.
China’s Xi Jinping was given a prime position on the Kremlin leader’s right-hand side. It was no surprise given the economic lifeline Beijing has provided, but it felt like a particularly pointed gesture to the West – that they were looking at a new world order.
Despite that appearance of confidence, there were signs of Moscow’s unease that the parade could be disrupted.
There were snipers on every rooftop. Security was extremely tight. And the mobile internet signal across the city centre was completely shut down for fear of Ukrainian drone attacks, meaning none of the international media that had gathered could broadcast any live transmissions.
After the parade finished, Putin saluted the crowds as they spontaneously erupted into rhythmic shouts of “Rus-si-ya” at the sight of him.
Another PR coup complete without interruption, he will have departed as a very happy man.
Conclaves are famously unpredictable affairs – and once again the election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new pope caught many by surprise.
The newly elected Pope Leo XIV won the consensus of the 133 cardinal electors after only four ballots – a fast process for a diverse college of cardinals.
Though his name had circulated among some Vatican watchers, other cardinals had emerged as clear front-runners, including Pietro Parolin – the Vatican’s number two who would have been the first Italian in almost 50 years to become pontiff – or Luis Tagle, a Filipino cardinal looking to become the first Asian pope.
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What are the conclave’s secrecy measures?
Instead, it was the first North American to win the highly secretive process.
So, what went on behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel?
Until Thursday lunchtime, Cardinal Parolin was ahead, gathering between 45 and 55 votes, sources say.
A substantial number, but well short of the 89 votes he needed for a two-thirds majority.
At this point, Cardinal Prevost had between 34 and 44 votes.
But as the Italian struggled to grow his support during the first three rounds of voting, he stepped down from the race, endorsing Prevost instead, Sky News understands.
Read more:
Who is Pope Leo XIV?
List of demands in new pope’s in-tray
How does new pope compare to his predecessors?
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Who is Pope Leo?
An internal battle between Luis Tagle and Pablo Virgilio David – both cardinals hailing from Asia – cancelled out both of their chances.
And a contender from Africa – the most conservative sector of the church – was never likely for a conclave where the overwhelming majority of cardinals had been appointed by Francis, a progressive pontiff, sources say.
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Moment new pope emerges on balcony
An American pope has long been seen as highly improbable, given the geopolitical power of the US.
But Cardinal Prevost was able to draw from across the groups making up the electors: moderate US cardinals, South American cardinals and many European cardinals all coalesced around him.
Italian newspaper La Repubblica said Prevost “certainly attracted cross-party preferences, both ideologically and geographically”.
“In the conclave he was the least American of Americans: Born in Chicago, he lived 20 years in Peru,” the newspaper said.
It added: “As a man used to teamwork, Prevost appeared to many as the right man to make the papacy evolve into a more collegial form.”
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