Raab’s exit at next election shows a clear sense of Tory despondency about their prospects
Former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab has confirmed he is standing down at the next election.
It is a story about his personal circumstances, but also Conservative prospects.
He was forced to quit the cabinet after a long-running inquiry into bullying allegations against him by officials at three government departments upheld some of the claims.
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Given the adverse circumstances, and the difficulty of contesting an election in which his opponents will brand him a bully – although Raab has made clear he thinks the verdict unfair – it would probably be more surprising if he decided to dig in and stand again.
The decision is likely to be a relief to his staunch ally Rishi Sunak, who would otherwise be asked to continually defend an MP whose behaviour has been branded unacceptable.
The prime minister’s gratitude for his support during last year’s leadership contest means some suspect he’ll eventually end up in the House of Lords.
But the departure, while linked to his specific circumstances, also tells us something about the growing exodus in the Tory party.
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Raab takes aim at ‘activist civil servants’
At the time of writing, there are 51 current MPs who have decided not to stand at the next election – of which 38 were elected as Conservatives in 2019.
They span many tribes – those throwing in the towel after a long innings; embroiled in scandal and suspended from the party; those certain to lose their seats. But also, crucially, the young and ambitious.
Yes, life in politics can take a heavy toll on individuals and families, with social media abuse, threats, and time away from family all driving MPs out. Raab said in his resignation letter that he was concerned about the impact on his two young sons.
But speaking to MPs across all parties, there is a clear sense of despondency among Tories about their prospects of keeping their seats.
Read more:
Which MPs are stepping down the next election?
The list goes on…
Raab’s once-safe constituency of Esher and Walton in leafy Surrey – which he won by 28,000 votes in 2015 – is now marginal, with a majority of just 2,743. The Liberal Democrats, celebrating a round of local elections showing they are back in business, will be targeting it very hard.
Other Tories who are off include young Red Wall MP Nicola Richards, aged 27 in West Bromwich; Dehenna Davison, rising star of the 2019 election, who has an 8,000 majority in Bishop Auckland; select committee chair Robin Walker, 45, with a 6,000 majority in Worcester. The list of those ending their political careers early goes on.
Matt Hancock, star of I’m a Celebrity, is leaving politics. Former chancellor Sajid Javid, still in his early 50s, declared he would pursue interests outside Westminster on the day Labour won the Chester by-election.
If the Tories were on course to triumph at the next election, you can’t help but think some of them would stick around.
As one senior Tory put it to me: “People are not happy and are weighing up will I win, and is it worth slugging it out in opposition? For some MPs, they’re at the age where they can have a second career. Some are looking to move to safer seats, which doesn’t bode well.”
The Tory exodus is only likely to escalate as MPs are slowly selected for new seats created by the latest boundary changes. There have already been fierce selection battles among serving MPs as some have seen their seats abolished altogether.
Safe berths elsewhere are few and far between, and there is some resentment about who is getting on the candidates list.
Labour are far ahead of the Conservatives in selections, having already chosen more than 200 candidates. The Conservatives say they will have done 100 by the party conference in October, but as that process rolls on, those deciding it’s not worth waiting for the verdict of the voters looks set to continue.
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Donald Trump’s inauguration 2.0
Pic: AP
Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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