McCarthy, Dems temper expectations on debt-ceiling deal

Published

11 months ago

May 24, 2023

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Democratic and Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are starting to temper expectations among their members about what a final debt ceiling deal could look like, becoming more explicit in acknowledging that neither side will get everything it wants.

When asked Monday whether any ultimate deal to cut spending as a condition of raising the debt ceiling will lose votes on both the left and right ideological edges of the parties, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) indicated that it would.

“Did you ever think at the end of the day that when you get into a negotiation with both sides that only one side is gonna carry everything? No, no one thinks that,” McCarthy said.

That same day, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said he was willing to consider a White House offer to freeze spending at current levels — a stance that is drawing ire from liberals.

Though Republicans flatly rejected that offer, it shows just how far the White House has moved in discussions with Republicans in a matter of weeks as pressure mounts to secure a deal.

“Any proposal that potentially offers to freeze spending is not a proposal that has been put into the public domain by the left flank,” Jeffries told reporters Monday. “That’s an inherently reasonable effort to find common ground in a divided government situation.”

Politics watchers had long expected the eventual deal to lift the debt ceiling to fall somewhere between what the two parties are demanding, but McCarthy’s and Jeffries’s statements are their clearest signals yet that their members should prepare for a compromise that jettisons some party priorities.

The tempering on both sides comes as negotiators say they are having productive meetings but remain apart on key issues ahead of a default that the Treasury Department says could come as soon as June 1.

Even with Democratic support, any deal that McCarthy makes will have to win support from a large majority of the House Republicans in order for him to keep the confidence of his conference — and his gavel.

“[McCarthy] knows that to get this passed out of the House, it’s gonna require a conservative work product that fundamentally changes how we spend money in this country,” Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) said. “I believe that he’ll deliver that. I believe we’ll have the sort of overwhelming majority of the conference.”

Right-wingers lined up to support the Speaker to pass a bill that paired a $1.5 trillion debt ceiling increase with around $4.8 trillion in deficit reductions over a decade. The measure was designed to get President Biden to the negotiating table, but members of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus are pushing the Speaker to “use every leverage and tool at their disposal” to force the Senate to vote on the proposal or offer a countermeasure.

Some members have said they see the deal as a floor, rather than a ceiling, for what they expect in a final product.

“I’ll look at anything,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said about a potential deal. But he said many Republicans feel that the House GOP debt bill was “meager at best,” and that he would want “four times the cuts.”

“I don’t know why we’re negotiating. The House has done its job. The Senate needs to pass the bill,” said Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), adding that the only position being pushed by members in a Tuesday morning conference meeting was to pass the House GOP bill.

McCarthy spoke to that stance when asked Tuesday if he is preparing his conference to accept something less than the House GOP bill, responding that the real question is “what’s the Senate willing to accept, because they didn’t do anything.”

Yet he has laid out only a few red lines for a compromise: no tax increases, cut discretionary spending below current levels and no clean debt ceiling increase.

The red lines are around major issues, to be sure, but fall short of the full GOP wish list.

Johnson said it is too early to worry about how Republicans are going to whip the votes for a debt limit compromise. And others are downplaying the difficulty of doing so, with Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), chair of the House Rules Committee, saying leadership will be able to secure that large majority with “a great whip team, which we have, and I think the sense that we’re being successful.”

At the same time, Democratic leaders are also feeling pressure from their left flank, as liberals roundly reject negotiations with Republicans over the debt limit.

Speaking about the White House proposal to freeze spending, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) said she could not in “good faith understand how that is a reasonable offer at the moment.”

“I think the offer should raise the debt ceiling. We have conversations about the budget later,” she said, adding, “If Democrats don’t get serious about the extremists that they’re dealing with, we are going to risk allowing these people to destroy our economy and the global economy.”

The warning from Omar adds to some of the growing uneasiness among progressives in recent weeks over the potential concessions the White House may end up making in order to find compromise with GOP leadership.

“Look at what is being proposed in terms of cuts,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, told reporters earlier this week. “Don’t talk about spending in the abstract. Headstart, 200,000 kids, no slots. 100,000 kids without child care.”

However, DeLauro didn’t rule out spending cuts entirely in comments to reporters, as many members on both sides have refrained from drawing red lines in debt limit negotiations.

Others in the party also aren’t thrilled by the direction talks have gone, but there is an understanding that the final compromise between the White House and a divided Congress won’t include everything both sides have pushed for. Arnold Schwarzenegger hired as chief action officer at Netflix 6 in 10 say spending cuts should accompany increase in debt ceiling: poll

“We have a divided government. Nothing can get done around here without votes on both sides in the Senate and the House,” Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, said Tuesday. “That means neither side is getting 100 percent of what they want.”

“We recognize that we’re not going to get everything. Republicans shouldn’t get everything,” he said.

Mychael Schnell contributed to this report, which was updated on May 24 at 7:03 a.m.

Politics

Rishi Sunak will feel ‘reset week’ was job well done – but a horrible reality check awaits

Published

2 hours ago

April 26, 2024

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Rishi Sunak will feel 'reset week' was job well done - but a horrible reality check awaits

Call it the Rishi Sunak reset week or, to borrow from The Spectator’s Katy Balls, the shore-up Sunak week – the prime minister will be going into this weekend feeling the past few days have been a job well done.

He has got his flagship Rwanda bill through parliament and is promising a “regular rhythm” of flights will be getting off the ground from July.

He has also got off the ground himself, with a dash to Poland and then Germany, in a show of strength with European allies in the face of Russian aggression.

As the US finally approved a $61bn military aid package for Ukraine, our prime minister announced he’d lift the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.

That would amount to £87bn a year by the start of the 2030s, with the UK spending a cumulative extra £75bn on the military over the next six years.

That of course all hinges on winning an election, which I’ll come to soon, but it is a commitment that throws a challenge to Labour and will delight those in his party who have been calling for increased defence spending for months in the face of growing global threats from Russia, China and Iran.

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In Electoral Dysfunction this week, we discuss whether Rishi Sunak, having been battered for much of his premiership, is finally having a week on top?

There is after all a longstanding tradition in this country that when the chips are down, you jump on a plane to try to go somewhere where you’re more appreciated.

And Ruth agrees this week that this has been “one of the better weeks that he’s had in his premiership” and is fully behind his defence spending pledge, while Jess points out that Labour is committed to the “exact same plan for upping defence spending”.

The difference between the two parties is that Rishi Sunak set out in some detail how he plans to get to that point over the course of the next parliament, while Sir Keir Starmer has said only he wants to get to 2.5% “when resources allow”.

And that matters because, as it stands, it’s very likely that it will be Sir Keir who is having to decide whether to increase defence spending levels in the next parliament rather than the incumbent.

Cue an election debate on which leader really cares more about defence and, if Sir Keir really does want go toe-to-toe with Mr Sunak on the 2.5%, how does he pay for it?

That will be a discussion for many other days (Labour’s line on this is that the party will hit the 2.5% “when circumstances allow” rather than setting a firm date) as we head into the general election.

But I had to ask Ruth and Jess, why was he on a publicity blitz announcing it now? Was it something to do with the rather large matter of the local elections?

‘Sunak needs to look big’

At this, both furiously shook their heads and looked at me with a touch of derision. “When it comes to the local elections, I want my bins done, I want my schools to be good, and I want my potholes done. That’s what I care about,” says Ruth.

“The people in Birmingham Yardley speak of nothing else but the 2.5% defence spending,” jokes Jess.

“I see why [he’s doing it this week] but actually I don’t think he’s doing for just another example of doing it this week. He needs to look big in front of his party.”

And there are a couple of things to explore in that.

First, the party management issue of a PM very likely to get completely battered in the local elections throwing his party some red meat ahead of that slaughter to perhaps try to protect himself.

Because the local elections could be bad, very very bad. And that throws up questions about Rishi Sunak’s future and also the date of the next general election.

There is a reason why the prime minister will not be drawn on the timing of the election beyond the “second half of the year”.

While it’s true he doesn’t want to have to “indulge in a guessing game”, as one of his allies put it to me, it’s also true that he can’t rule out a summer election given the unpredictability of next week’s local elections and what could follow.

The Armageddon scenario of losing 500-plus seats, alongside the West Midlands and Teeside mayors, could propel his party into fever pitch panic and possibly trigger a vote of confidence in Rishi Sunak.

Does he then decide to call a general election instead of allowing his party to try to force him out?

‘A man enjoying himself’

For what it’s worth, he did not appear, in any way to me, as a prime minister on that plane over to Berlin from Warsaw, who wanted to give up the job. He seemed, for the first time in a long time, a man enjoying it and getting on with the stuff he wants to get done.

There is also the small matter of being 20 points behind in the polls. I suspect his instinct is very much to hold on in the hope that things begin to turn in his favour.

Because, despite what the critics say, he does seem a man who genuinely believes his Rwanda plan, welfare reforms, defence spending and economic management are all stepping stones on his path to perhaps winning back some support in the country.

“June [or July] is just party management,” says one former cabinet minister. “They are not ready for it and the polling doesn’t work obviously.”

Jess sees the flurry as a “his last ditch attempt” of another reset, and says “the Labour party is not worrying” as the PM tries to pin them on Rwanda or defence spending: “Whatever he goes on is absolutely pilloried within seconds,” she says.

But Ruth argues the defence spending was “actually authentic and a real thing”, and says of the expectations for the local elections that “it’s not just going to be a rout, but an apocalypse, that actually at this point in the cycle it works quite well for Sunak in terms of keeping his job at the back end”.

Observing his various grip and grins this week as I trailed after him meeting the Polish PM, the German chancellor and the NATO secretary general, he is a man that really does want to hold on to that job.

The local elections then are probably going to come as a horrible reality check in just a week’s time as this prime minister, riding high from his European tours, is reminded that his time in office looks like it will be coming to an end – and perhaps even sooner than he might have initially planned.

US

Student anti-Israel protests continue to sweep the US, with almost 550 arrests

Published

2 hours ago

April 26, 2024

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Student anti-Israel protests continue to sweep the US, with almost 550 arrests

Student protests against Israel’s war in Gaza continue to spread across the US, following last week’s arrest of more than 100 demonstrators at Columbia University.

There have been nearly 550 protest-related arrests in the past week at major US universities, according to a tally by news agency Reuters.

The students want universities to cut ties with companies helping Israel’s war in Gaza and, in some cases, with Israel itself.

Some universities have called in police to end the demonstrations, resulting in clashes and arrests, while others appear to be biding their time as the academic semester enters its final days.

The University of Southern California cancelled its main graduation ceremony, set for 10 May, after the arrests of 93 people at the Los Angeles campus on Wednesday.

At Boston’s Emerson College, 108 people were arrested overnight with video showing students linking arms to resist officers, who then moved forcefully through the crowd, throwing some students to the ground.

Student protester Ocean Muir said: “There were just more cops on all sides.

“It felt like we were being slowly pushed in and crushed.”

She said police lifted her by her arms and legs to carry her away and she was charged with trespassing and disorderly conduct.

At Emory University’s Atlanta campus, 28 people were detained and the local branch of activist group Jewish Voice For Peace said police used tear gas and tasers on protesters.

Police there admitted using “chemical irritants” but denied using rubber bullets.

Cheryl Elliott, Emory’s vice president for public safety, said the aim was to clear the area of a “disruptive encampment while holding individuals accountable to the law” but human rights groups questioned the “apparent use of excessive force” against free speech.

Charges were dropped, meanwhile, against 46 of the 60 people detained by police at the University of Texas.

At Indiana University Bloomington, police with shields and batons shoved into a line of protesters, arresting 33 people.

At City College of New York, police officers retreated from protests, to cheers from the hundreds of students gathered on the lawn on the Harlem campus.

At California State Polytechnic University in Humboldt, students have been barricaded in a campus building since Monday, with staff trying to negotiate.

At University of Connecticut one protester was arrested and tents torn down, while protests continued at Stanford University and the New Jersey campus of Princeton University.

Harvard University is among those that have not taken action against protesters who have set up tents.

At New York’s Columbia University, where the protest movement began, university officials remain locked in a stalemate with students.

Police cleared tents and arrested more than 100 people last week but students put the tents up again in an area where graduation ceremonies will be held in a few weeks.

The administration has given protesters until Friday to leave.

There have been accusations that some pro-Palestinian protesters have harassed or abused Jewish students but protesters blame outsiders trying to infiltrate and malign their movement.

Protest leaders admit there has been abuse directed at Jewish students but insist the protests are not antisemitic.

Some of the universities have seen counter-protests from Israel supporters.

UK

Rwanda Bill causing migrants to head for Ireland instead of UK, deputy PM says

Published

2 hours ago

April 26, 2024

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Rwanda Bill causing migrants to head for Ireland instead of UK, deputy PM says

The threat of deportation to Rwanda is causing migrants to head for Ireland instead of the UK, Ireland’s deputy prime minister has said.

The Rwanda Bill, which will see asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” sent to the central African nation – regardless of the outcome of their application – was passed on Tuesday, despite human rights concerns.

Micheal Martin told The Daily Telegraph that the policy was already affecting Ireland, as people were “fearful” of staying in the UK.

The former Taoiseach said: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”

Mr Martin, who is also Ireland’s foreign secretary, said asylum seekers were seeking “to get sanctuary here and within the European Union as opposed to the potential of being deported to Rwanda”.

His words follow those of justice minister Helen McEntee, who told a scrutiny committee in the Irish parliament earlier this week that migrants and refugees were crossing the border with Northern Ireland.

Ms McEntee said “higher than 80%” of people seeking asylum in Ireland entered the country through Northern Ireland, a border crossing that is open as guaranteed under a UK-EU Brexit treaty.

It comes amid increasing tension over immigration levels in Ireland, which is grappling with a housing crisis that has affected its own people as well as asylum seekers.

Overnight, six people were arrested during a protest at a site earmarked to house asylum seekers in Newtownmountkennedy in Co Wicklow.

Gardai said officers came under attack after workers were brought onto the site, suffering “verbal and physical abuse throughout the day, which escalated into rocks and other missiles being thrown this evening”.

Fires were lit, an axe was found and officers were “forced to defend themselves” with incapacitant spray, helmets and shields.

Three patrol cars were also damaged.

Irish broadcaster RTE said protesters accused gardaí of using unnecessary force, and intimidating and aggressive tactics against a legitimate and peaceful protest.

According to RTE, there have been protests during the past six weeks at the site, known as Trudder House or River Lodge.

It is reportedly being considered as a site for 20 eight-person tents housing asylum seekers but some locals have said it is unsuitable and the village’s resources are already over-stretched.

Ms McEntee said there was “a lot of misinformation about migration at the moment”.

She tweeted late on Thursday to promote the EU Migration and Asylum Pact, which she described as “a real game changer” and “something we must opt into”.