The West’s oil war against Russia is starting to lose momentum

Published

2 years ago

May 24, 2023

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Tankers located in the waters near Ceuta, Spain are transferring crude oil from Russia to reach the Asian markets in spite of Western sanctions.

Europa Press News | Europa Press | Getty Images

Russia’s oil revenues rebounded in March and April to reach the highest level since November last year, according to a new report, bolstering President Vladimir Putin‘s ability to finance the Kremlin’s onslaught in Ukraine.

Analysis published Wednesday by the Centre for Research in Energy and Clean Air, an independent Finnish think tank, found that Russia’s revenues from oil exports have recovered from levels reached in January and February.

The findings show that Moscow has recently been able to successfully claw back earnings from fossil fuel exports despite the imposition late last year of import bans from the European Union and a broader G7 oil price cap.

It comes less than a week after G7 leaders said at the conclusion of the Hiroshima Summit in Japan that a price cap on Russian oil and petroleum products was working, Russian revenues were down and falling oil and gas prices were benefitting countries around the world.

This is a clear indication that the enforcement is not working.

Lauri Myllyvirta

Lead analyst at the Centre for Research in Energy and Clean Air

Energy analysts at CREA suggested the failure from the so-called Price Cap Coalition to revise price levels and enforce the policy had resulted in the measures “losing traction, integrity and credibility.”

“The EU has failed in its commitment to review the price cap every two months to ensure that it stays lower than the average market price,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA and co-author of the report.

“This is a clear indication that the enforcement is not working,” he added.

A spokesperson for the European Union declined to comment when contacted by CNBC.

Russia’s oil revenue recovery expected to continue

At the start of the year, data showed Russia’s revenue from fossil fuel exports had collapsed in December. It appeared to underscore the effectiveness of policymakers targeting Russia’s oil revenues and sparked calls for even tougher measures to help Kyiv prevail.

CREA’s latest findings, however, show that Russia’s oil tax revenues rose 6% month-on-month in April due to the increase of export revenues in March.

To be sure, the Kremlin’s revenues were significantly below levels recorded in April last year, when oil prices jumped.

The increase of export revenues in March resulted in a 5% month-on-month rebound in Russia’s mineral extraction tax receipts in April, the report said — and an even larger increase is expected in May.

It means that after bottoming out at the start of 2023, Russia’s oil tax revenues have since recovered due to increased sales.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with the Supreme Court chairman Vyacheslav Lebedev at the Kremlin in Moscow on May 22, 2023.

Mikhail Klimentyev | Afp | Getty Images

“The Kremlin’s tax revenue has closely followed prices for Russian crude oil, highlighting the importance of the oil price cap. The state is also changing its tax regime to diminish the impact of the price cap,” said Isaac Levi, energy analyst at CREA.

“Unless the price cap coalition takes action to lower the price cap level and plug the enforcement gaps, changes to Russia’s oil taxation structure will force the price of Russian crude oil closer to international benchmarks, leading to further recovery of Russia’s oil revenue and wholesale failure of the price cap system,” he added.

CREA’s analysis said that since the EU’s import bans and the G7 price cap on Russian oil, Moscow has earned an estimated 58 billion euros ($62.5 billion) in export revenues from seaborne oil.

The majority of which was transported on European-insured or owned tankers, it added. Russia’s revenues could be slashed by a further 22 billion euros if the price cap for crude oil was reduced to $30 per barrel and price caps for oil products were revised accordingly, CREA said.

What is the aim of the price cap?

The G7, Australia and the EU implemented a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil on Dec. 5. It came alongside a move by the EU and U.K. to impose a ban on the seaborne import of Russian crude oil.

Together, the measures were thought to reflect by far the most significant step to curtail the fossil fuel export revenue that is funding Russia’s war in Ukraine.

In February, the Price Cap Coalition followed up its crude oil price cap by imposing a $100 per barrel price cap on Russian petroleum products such as diesel and a $45 per barrel cap on Russian petroleum products such as fuel oils that trade at a discount to crude.

The aim of the price cap policy is to restrict Russia’s oil revenues while maintaining the supply of Russian oil. The U.S. Treasury said in an update last week that nearly six months after the implementation of the price cap, the policy was achieving both goals.

The Treasury estimates that Russia’s oil revenues have fallen to just 23% of the Russian budget this year, down from 30% to 35% of the total Russian budget before Moscow launched its war in Ukraine in February 2022.

The U.S. said this decline in revenue occurred at a time when Russia is exporting as much as 10% more crude oil in April 2023 when compared to March last year.

Environment

Trump’s first day, Hyundai lease deals, and Volvo’s EVs arrive in the US

Published

5 hours ago

January 22, 2025

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Trump's first day, Hyundai lease deals, and Volvo's EVs arrive in the US

On today’s episode of Quick Charge, President Trump has a wild first day in office, but it’s not ALL bad, either. Plus: Tesla gets diner integration, Hyundai keeps the deal train rolling, and it’s dad’s 80th birthday.

We also look ahead to some possible discounts for Tesla insurance customers, some news on the upcoming “cheap” Cybertruck, and wonder out loud if Puerto Rico’s billion dollar solar project is going to see the light of day. All this and more – enjoy!

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Environment

Stripe cuts 300 jobs in product, engineering and operations

Published

8 hours ago

January 21, 2025

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Stripe cuts 300 jobs in product, engineering and operations

The Stripe logo on a smartphone with U.S. dollar banknotes in the background.

Budrul Chukrut | SOPA Images | LightRocket via Getty Images

Stripe cut 300 jobs, representing about 3.5% of its workforce, mostly in product, engineering and operations, CNBC has confirmed.

The payments company, valued at about $70 billion in the private markets, still expects to increase headcount by 10,000 by the end of the year, which would be a 17% increase, and is “not slowing down hiring,” according to a memo to staff from Chief People Office Rob McIntosh. Business Insider reported earlier on the cuts and the memo.

A Stripe spokesperson also confirmed to CNBC that a cartoon image of a duck with text that read, “US-Non-California Duck,” was accidentally attached as a PDF to emails sent to some of the employees who were laid off. Some of the emails mistakenly provided affected employees with an incorrect termination date, the spokesperson said.

McIntosh sent a follow-up email to staffers apologizing for the “notification error” and “any confusion it caused.”

“Corrected and full notifications have since been sent to all impacted Stripes,” he wrote.

In 2022, Stripe cut roughly 1,100 jobs, or 14% of its workers, downsizing alongside most of the tech industry, as soaring inflation and rising interest rates forced companies to focus on profits over growth. The Information reported that Stripe had a few dozen layoffs in its recruiting department in 2023.

Stripe’s valuation sank from a peak of $95 billion in 2021 to $50 billion in 2023, before reportedly rebounding to $70 billion last year as part of a secondary share sale. The company ranked third on last year’s CNBC Disruptor 50 list.

In October, Stripe agreed to pay $1.1 billion for crypto startup Bridge Network, whose technology is focused on making it easy for businesses to transact using digital currencies.

Brothers Patrick and John Collison, who founded Stripe in 2010, have intentionally steered clear of the public markets and have given no indication that an offering is on the near-term horizon. Total payment volume at the company surpassed $1 trillion in 2023.

WATCH: Early Bridge investor weighs in on $1.1 billion Stripe deal

Environment

Rivian is offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1S or R1T

Published

9 hours ago

January 21, 2025

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Rivian is offering up to ,000 to upgrade your R1S or R1T

Thinking about upgrading your EV? Rivian (RIVN) launched a new promo on Tuesday, offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1S or R1T. Here’s how you can snag some savings.

Rivian R1S and R1T upgrade deal offers up to $6,000

Rivian delivered over 51,500 vehicles last year as the EV maker gains momentum. Although it was only slightly higher than the ~50,100 delivered in 2023, Rivian is expected to see even more growth this year.

After shutting down its Normal, IL manufacturing plant last April and renegotiating supplier contracts, Rivian has seen “significant cost improvements,” according to CEO RJ Scaringe.

Rivian also began delivering its next-gen R1S and R1T models last year. The new Large and Max battery packs have redesigned modules and more efficient packaging, “making them easier to manufacture and service.” For example, Rivian’s new EVs use seven ECUs, down from 17 in the first-generation R1T and R1S.

With new plant upgrades, reworked supplier contracts, and more efficient vehicles, Rivian is now passing the savings on to customers.

Rivian introduced a new promo on Tuesday, offering up to $6,000 to upgrade your R1T or R1S. The bonus amount varies by trim:

Tri with Max battery: $6,000 USD / CAD 8,600
Dual with Max battery and Performance upgrade: $4,500 USD / CAD 6,500
Dual with Max battery: $3,000 USD / CAD 4,300

The offer is for current R1T or R1S owners or lessees in the US and Canada. Rivian launched the new promo on January 21, and it runs through March 31, 2025.

After you purchase or lease a qualifying vehicle, Rivian will apply a discount toward the MSRP. You must take delivery by March 31, 2025. In the fine print, Rivian stated, “You must request a trade-in estimate to qualify for this offer, but trade-in of a vehicle is not required.”

Any other models are excluded from the offer. These include Dual Standard configurations, Dual with Large battery configurations, custom builds, demo vehicles, and pre-owned vehicles.

The new offer follows Rivian’s previous upgrade promo introduced last October, giving qualifying gas-powered vehicle owners or lessees up to $3,000.

Check out the Rivian R1 Shop to view eligible models. You can see eligible Rivian R1S here and R1T models here.

Electrek’s Take

Rivian’s R1S was already the tenth best-selling electric vehicle in the US last year, with nearly 27,000 models sold. With more driving range and power at a lower cost, the electric SUV could see even more demand in 2025.

Then again, with the arrival of new luxury electric SUVs, like the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volvo EX90, Rivian will face more competition in the US.

Rivian’s latest promo comes as the Company looks to carry the momentum from the end of 2024 into the new year. The EV maker is offering other deals, including 1.99% APR for 60 months on the R1 Dual with a Max Battery and Performance upgrade.

Even if you are not eligible for the promo, we can still help you find deals on Rivian’s electric SUV in your area. You can use our links below to view offers on the Rivian R1S and R1T near you today.

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