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The transfer portal is slowing down, media days are around the corner and with all due respect to Week 0 — I love it dearly, just as much as all the other weeks — we’re officially 100 days from Sept. 2, the first real Saturday of the 2023 college football season.

It seems like a pretty good time, then, to get up to date on the numbers. Since February’s initial 2023 SP+ release, we’ve seen a number of transfers and big moves, and I’ve been able to better update returning production figures to account for teams’ official roster releases. (Not many had released full rosters in early February.) We haven’t seen much movement at the very top of the rankings, but there’s plenty to talk about.

A quick reminder: Preseason projections are based on three factors.

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up more than half the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?

(One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.)

Here are the full, updated rankings:

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No. 5 Texas Tech extends McGuire with 7-year deal

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No. 5 Texas Tech extends McGuire with 7-year deal

Amid a historic season at Texas Tech, the school announced on Tuesday that it has agreed on a new seven-year contract with coach Joey McGuire.

Sources confirmed to ESPN’s Pete Thamel that the new deal averages nearly $7 million per year. The school said it also includes incentives for future Big 12 and postseason success.

Under McGuire, the Red Raiders are No. 5 in the College Football Playoff ranking, having completed an 11-1 regular season with each win coming by at least 20 points. Texas Tech is making its first Big 12 championship appearance against BYU on Saturday in Arlington, Texas.

“We believe the future of Texas Tech Football has never been brighter under Coach McGuire’s leadership,” athletic director Kirby Hocutt said in a statement. “Our success this season is not a one-year plan. We fully intend to be an annual contender in the Big 12 Conference with our eyes on the College Football Playoff each and every season. We have the right leader in Coach McGuire to keep elevating this program, and this contract extension is a reflection of our investment in sustaining this success for years to come.”

McGuire is 34-17 in four years in Lubbock, tied for the most wins by a Texas Tech coach through that span since Jim Carlen from 1970 to 1973.

“I couldn’t be more thankful for Kirby Hocutt and our administration for the belief in this football program,” McGuire said in a statement. “I’ve said it countless times but my family and I love Lubbock, this university and this fan base. We expect to continue to elevate this program where appearances in the Big 12 title game, like this Saturday, and the College Football Playoff are expected on an annual basis.”

Yahoo Sports first reported terms of McGuire’s extension.

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Wake Forest extends Dickert after 8-4 first season

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Wake Forest extends Dickert after 8-4 first season

Wake Forest coach Jake Dickert has signed a long-term contract extension to stay with the Demon Deacons after an 8-4 season, the school announced Tuesday.

In his first year with the school, Dickert led Wake Forest to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2022, exceeding outside expectations. Wake Forest was picked to finish 16th out of 17 teams in the preseason ACC media poll.

Dickert said in a statement that Wake Forest will “further invest” in football.

“This commitment ensures that our staff has the stability, resources and support necessary to continue elevating Wake Forest football,” Dickert said. “I’m proud of this team, our staff and our seniors who built the foundation for this new era, and excited for what’s ahead.”

Wake Forest had two Top-25 wins this year over Virginia and SMU, snapping the Mustangs’ 20-game regular-season conference winning streak.

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11-1 North Texas hires former WVU coach Brown

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11-1 North Texas hires former WVU coach Brown

Neal Brown signed a contract to become the next coach at North Texas, the school announced on Tuesday. The deal is for five years, sources told ESPN, and Brown brings 10 years of head coaching experience to the Mean Green, including a 35-16 mark at Troy and a 37-35 mark at West Virginia.

Brown will replace Eric Morris, who is headed to Oklahoma State after being hired by the Big 12 school last week. Brown has a 5-1 record in bowl games and led Troy to the 2017 Sun Belt title. He also defeated LSU and Nebraska as Troy’s head coach. He spent last season on staff at Texas.

“Neal is a proven leader who builds programs with integrity, vision and an unwavering commitment to developing student-athletes on and off the field,” North Texas athletic director Jared Mosley said in a statement. “His history of elevating rosters, developing talent and producing results in highly competitive leagues makes him an ideal fit for North Texas.”

Morris has led North Texas to an 11-1 record this season, and will remain with the Mean Green for the rest of the season. North Texas will play Tulane in the American Conference title game this weekend, and could make 12-team College Football Playoff.

“Football in Texas is special, and my family and I can’t wait to pour everything we have into the North Texas campus,” Brown said in the school’s announcement. “Most importantly, our program will always be a player-driven program, and I look forward to getting to know this team and building our roster for the future.”

Brown spent six seasons coaching West Virginia before being fired in December 2024. The Mountaineers entered his final campaign with lofty aspirations, including contending for a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff appearance. And Brown even bristled when the Mountaineers didn’t crack the preseason polls, adding to the expectations in Morgantown.

But West Virginia authored some uneven performances and never won more than two consecutive games in that final season. Fan and booster angst continued to rise before he was ultimately fired, and replaced by Rich Rodriguez.

“We are confident that his leadership will position the Mean Green for sustained success,” Mosley said. “And we look forward to the impact he and his family will have on our program and our community for years to come.”

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