The transfer portal is slowing down, media days are around the corner and with all due respect to Week 0 — I love it dearly, just as much as all the other weeks — we’re officially 100 days from Sept. 2, the first real Saturday of the 2023 college football season.
It seems like a pretty good time, then, to get up to date on the numbers. Since February’s initial 2023 SP+ release, we’ve seen a number of transfers and big moves, and I’ve been able to better update returning production figures to account for teams’ official roster releases. (Not many had released full rosters in early February.) We haven’t seen much movement at the very top of the rankings, but there’s plenty to talk about.
A quick reminder: Preseason projections are based on three factors.
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up more than half the projections formula.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?
(One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.)
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Steven Stamkos rediscovered his scoring touch with a four-goal outing Thursday night, and it’s no coincidence that the Nashville Predators‘ trajectory is suddenly pointing up.
After a slow start to the season, Stamkos now has eight goals in his past eight outings, which coincides with the Predators going 6-2 over that stretch following a 7-2 win over the St. Louis Blues.
“I’m going to have to remember what I ate for breakfast. When you get to my age sometimes you forget,” said the 35-year-old, who opened the season with four goals in his first 22 games. “Sometimes you feel the legs are feeling light and tonight, when you score one early in the game, I think that’s the feeling you have. And it was nice to contribute in a big win for our group.”
The four-goal outing was the second of Stamkos’ 18-year career. He previously scored four times in a 7-4 win at Edmonton on Dec. 14, 2023, while with the Tampa Bay Lightning. And he became just the fourth Predators player to score four times, joining Filip Forsberg and Rocco Grimaldi (both in 2021) and Eric Nystrom (2014).
Stamkos opened the scoring 8:22 in by batting in his own rebound on a 2-on-1 break. He made it 2-0 less than three minutes later by converting a rebound in front after Jordan Binnington stopped Roman Josi’s initial shot from the blue line.
He then completed his 15th career hat trick with a shot from the high slot that deflected in off the skate of Blues defenseman Justin Faulk 12:06 into the second period. And his fourth goal made it 6-2 and came 3:27 later, when Josi’s shot deflected onto Stamkos’ stick in front, from where he backhanded it in behind Binnington.
It was his 102nd career multigoal game, the third-most among active players behind only Alex Ovechkin (181) and Sidney Crosby (110). And he became the first player age 35-or-older with a 4-goal game since Anze Kopitar in 2023.
Stamkos, the No. 1 pick in the 2008 draft, also is closing in on becoming the 22nd player to reach 600 goals. Stamkos now has 594, leaving him seven short of matching Jari Kurri.
“It’s a little surreal, to be honest, when you look at the history of this league and how many great players there’s been,” he said of the milestone.
What mattered more was the win.
In his second season in Nashville, Stamkos was part of the Predators’ 2024 offseason major spending spree that failed to pan out with the team missing the playoffs last season. Nashville (12-14-4) followed by getting off to a slow start to this season before its recent run inching the team closer into contention.
“It hasn’t quite worked out the way that we wanted to in terms of the success we’ve had as a team. But we’re rolling right now,” Stamkos said. “I think we’re playing some hockey that people probably expected us to play, and expected of ourselves. And we want to keep that going.”
Information from ESPN Research and The Associated Press was used in this report.
Southern Miss promoted offensive coordinator Blake Anderson to head coach on Thursday to replace Charles Huff, who recently left for Memphis.
The school had previously announced Anderson as interim coach three days earlier after Huff took the Memphis job.
Anderson, who previously was head coach at Utah State and Arkansas State, served this past season at Southern Miss as offensive coordinator, and his passing offense ranked first in the Sun Belt.
In 10 seasons as a Division I head coach, Anderson is 75-54, including nine bowl games and three conference titles.
In a statement, athletic director Jeremy McClain pointed to the success Anderson had as a head coach at his previous stops as one key factor.
“Blake is an exceptional leader, a great communicator, and has the respect of the players and the staff throughout the Duff Center,” McClain said. “We look forward to supporting him at the highest level and continuing the positive momentum for our program.”
Fernando Mendoza was named Associated Press Player of the Year on Thursday after leading unbeaten and top-ranked Indiana to its first Big Ten championship since 1967 and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
The redshirt junior quarterback was the overwhelming choice over fellow Heisman Trophy finalists Diego Pavia of Vanderbilt, Jeremiyah Love of Notre Dame and Julian Sayin of Ohio State. Mendoza received 32 of 51 first-place votes from a nationwide panel of media members who cover college football. Pavia got nine to lead the rest of the group, which also included Jacob Rodriguez of Texas Tech.
“I’m shining now but only because there are so many stars around me,” Mendoza said, describing his rise from lightly recruited high school prospect in 2021 to a candidate for the sport’s most prestigious awards. “There’s an analogy that the only reason we’re able to see stars in the sky is because the light reflects from all different types of stars. I have so many stars around myself — whether it’s my teammates, my coaches, my family, support staff — that I’m able to shine now in this light, and I’m so happy for everyone to be a part of this.”
Mendoza, the Hoosiers’ first-year starter after transferring from California, is the signal-caller for an offense that has surpassed program records for touchdowns and points set during last season’s surprise run to the CFP.
Mendoza has thrown for a Bowl Subdivision-leading 33 touchdowns and run for six, giving him a school-record 39 TDs accounted for.
He was the first Big Ten quarterback since 2000 with three straight games with at least four TD passes and no interceptions. His 21-of-23, 267-yard, 5-touchdown passing day in a 63-10 win at Illinois in the conference opener established him as a serious contender for national honors.
Mendoza is among 10 FBS quarterbacks who have completed better than 70% of their passes. He ranks among the most accurate passers on attempts of at least 20 yards, hitting on 23 of 43 (53.5%), and when under pressure (52.1%), according to Pro Football Focus.
Ranked the No. 72 quarterback prospect by ESPN when he was a senior at Christopher Columbus High School in Miami, Mendoza was pledged to Yale for almost six months before he decommitted and signed with California.
He sat out as a redshirt in 2022 and won the starting job for the final eight games in 2023. He was 10th in the nation in passing in 2024 and ranked among the top transfer prospects after the season. He landed at Indiana, where his brother Alberto Mendoza was the No. 3 quarterback last year. This year, Alberto is the top backup to his big brother.