Turkey’s runoff election is paralyzing key oil exports from northern Iraq
A satellite image showing the port of Ceyhan centred on August 18, 2015 in Turkey.
Gallo Images | Gallo Images | Getty Images
Turkey’s runoff election is compounding delays to restart roughly 450,000 barrels per day of Iraqi crude oil exports, as Ankara studies its relationship with Baghdad, analysts and market sources told CNBC.
Oil typically flows through Turkey from both the Iraqi state and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). More specifically, this Kirkuk crude flows down the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline linking the north of the Gulf country with Turkey’s Ceyhan port in the Mediterranean. But the flows have been paralyzed since March 25 by a legal dispute involving federal Iraq, the KRG and Turkey.
Resolution pends on the result of a second presidential vote this weekend, but a prolonged halt could reduce Iraqi crude production.
The KRG had previously trucked its crude exports across borders, until it linked its major oil-producing fields to the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and began shipping crude in 2014. Federal Baghdad denounced Erbil’s independent crude sales as illegal, threatening to ban customers of such supplies from purchasing Iraq’s larger Basra crude volumes.
After a nine-year suit, the International Chamber of Commerce’s Court of Arbitration in Paris found that Turkey violated the 1973 version of a pipeline transit agreement between Baghdad and Ankara over 2014-2018. Turkey was ordered to pay Iraq roughly $1.5 billion in damages, according to Reuters. A second arbitration suit covering 2018 to date is still ongoing.
The ICC verdict followed a domestic win for Baghdad, after Iraq’s federal court in February 2022 pronounced the KRG’s oil and gas legislation unconstitutional and invalidated its contracts with foreign firms. This decision led to U.S. companies deciding to exit contracts in Kurdistan and deterred some KRG oil buyers from further purchases.
Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani on May 23 said that Baghdad has informed Turkey it is able to restart flows through Ceyhan and awaits Ankara’s response.
“Our colleagues in Turkey said there are some evaluative issues that they have to take into account. And that resulted from the earthquake,” he said, noting that an Iraqi delegation will be sent at an unspecified time to Turkey to discuss the restart.
Kirkuk crude is exported from the Botas terminal at Ceyhan in southern Turkey, separate from Azeri crude flows shipped out from the nearby Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan port terminal. Botas resumed loadings the day after the devastating earthquake of Feb. 6 that killed at least a combined 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria, according to the U.N. The BTC terminal suffered a longer outage.
Several trade, shipping and oil producing sources — who could only comment anonymously because of contractual obligations — told CNBC that, following a request from Baghdad, Ankara was widely expected to resume Kirkuk crude exports from Ceyhan on May 13 — a day before presidential elections in Turkey, whose inconclusive first round on May 14 stymied the oil’s resumption.
Presidential purview
The sources stressed that Turkish authorities are loathe to take responsibility for the restart, while incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fights primary rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to prolong his roughly two-decade rule.
“The main issue with the resumption of the oil through Ceyhan is the elections ongoing in Turkey. Another obstacle in front of the resumption of oil is the ongoing case at ICC in Paris against Turkey by Baghdad from 2018 until now. Ankara asks Baghdad to drop this case, but Baghdad has yet to do so,” political analyst and former Kurdistan official Lawk Ghafuri told CNBC.
“The ruling party in Turkey [Erdogan’s AKP] wants to settle the elections and then deal with KRG’s oil with Baghdad.”
Other analysts further emphasized Turkey’s priority to avoid further legal disputes by insisting on a strict, clear agreement on the legality of oil exports between Baghdad and Erbil. Current deals between the two counterparties are political accords, rather than legislation.
“There are still lots of technicalities that need to be sorted out between the KRG and Baghdad. Although there has been an initial deal, the details have not been fleshed out in terms of how oil [is] to be exported and which side has control over the revenues,” Yerevan Saeed, research associate at the Arab Gulf Institute in Washington, told CNBC by email.
In addition to deciding marketing distribution, Baghdad and Kurdistan might also have to rework the agreements under which foreign firms have prepaid sums to Erbil in exchange for oil volumes, as well as the reimbursement contracts for foreign producers of Kurdish oil, market sources say.
Saeed noted Ankara may stretch negotiations with Baghdad to cover water resources from the Euphrates River and Turkey’s military presence in Kurdistan and Sinjar.
Bilal Wahab, Wagner fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, agreed that control of the Kurdish oil export flows arms Turkey with the leverage to ask Baghdad to drop its fine and second arbitration suit, as well as redefine the scope of Ankara’s business relationship with Iraq.
“This arbitration award is forcing a decision on Ankara: should they continue doing business with Kurdistan, where this has led to legal trouble with federal Iraq, or should they use this as a bird in hand to segue into getting the chance to do business in Iraq? All in all, by shutting down the pipeline, Turkey is not losing a lot, maybe the transit fee,” he told CNBC by phone, referring to Kurdistan’s payment to transport crude along the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.
Winner talks all
An Erdogan loss in the presidential battle could prolong the oil stalemate, traders warn, with Kilicdaroglu likely to require independent negotiations with Iraq — in a diplomatic point unlikely to enjoy pride of place on the new leader’s agenda.
Third-party candidate Sinan Ogan’s Monday endorsement of Erdogan has strengthened Erdogan’s position as Turks head to the polls.
Domestically, Erdogan has enjoyed a tumultuous relationship with Turkey’s largest ethnic minority, which typically accounts for 15-20% of the Turkish population. While Erdogan has had frequent rapprochement with KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, Wahab signals Turkey could still prioritize securing benefits from the oil export stalemate.
“I don’t think a victorious Erdogan would have any qualms about using the KRG as a leverage to get a good deal out of Baghdad: favourable terms for doing business in Iraq, dropping the fine that Turkey has to pay, or dropping some of the demands that Iraq has with regard to water [from the Euphrates] and Turkish military presence in Iraq,” he said.
Ford is cutting prices on the electric pickup by up to $4,000 to offset the loss of the federal EV tax credit. The 2026 Ford F-150 Lightning now offers more driving range at a lower price.
2026 Ford F-150 Lightning prices and range by trim
After the Tesla Cybertruck took the title as America’s best-selling electric pickup last year, the Ford F-150 Lightning is back on top in 2025.
Ford sold over 10,000 Lightnings in the third quarter, nearly double the roughly 5,400 Tesla Cybertrucks sold. Through September, Ford has sold over 23,000 electric pickups. According to Cox Automotive, Tesla has only sold 16,097 Cybertrucks this year, 38% fewer than it did during the same period in 2024.
After the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired at the end of September, many automakers, including Ford, are bracing for less demand.
To keep the momentum going, Ford is reducing prices for the 2026 F-150 Lightning by up to $4,000. Company spokesperson Martin Günsberg confirmed with Electrek that Ford is cutting prices on the flash trim by $4,000 and the Lariat by $2,000.
Ford introduced a new base STX model that replaces the XLT for 2026. The 2026 Ford F-150 Lightning STX starts at $63,345, the same as the 2025 STX, but it delivers an extra 50 miles of driving range.
A 123 kW extended range battery powers the STX, providing an EPA estimated 290 miles of range. In comparison, the XLT delivered 240 miles of range from a 98 kWh battery.
Ford also raided the F-150 parts bin to add a few off-road goodies like running boards from the Tremor, new wheels, and more.
The 2026 F-150 Lightning Flash will start at $65,995, down from $69,995. Meanwhile, the 2026 Lariat and Platinum trims will be priced from $74,995 and $84,995.
| Ford F-150 Lightning trim | 2025 Starting Price | 2026 Starting Price | Range (EPA-est miles) |
| XLT | $63,345 | N/A | 240 |
| STX | N/A | $63,345 | 290 |
| Flash | $69,995 | $65,995 | 320 |
| Lariat | $76,995 | $74,995 | 320 |
| Platinum | $84,995 | $84,995 | 300 |
Although Ford decided not to move forward with plans for a program to extend the $7,500 EV tax credit, the company is still offering significant incentives to compensate for the loss of it.
The 2025 Ford F-150 Lighting STX is eligible for up to $11,500 in savings in California and other ZEV states. Ford is offering a $9,000 lease cash bonus and an additional $2,000 Ford Power Promise cash bonus. Alternatively, Ford is offering 0% APR financing for 72 months plus an extra $2,000 Power Promise bonus nationwide.
With the 2026 Lightning arriving, Ford is offering big savings on 2025 models. The 2025 F-150 Lightning XLT is currently listed for lease as low as $279 per month in California. You can use our link to find offers on the Ford F-150 Lightning near you (trusted affiliate link).
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Global EV sales passed the 2 million mark for the first time in September 2025, according to new data from EV research house Rho Motion – here’s how it breaks down.
A record-breaking September
Rho Motion’s data shows that 2.1 million EVs were sold worldwide in September, the highest monthly total ever recorded. The US, UK, South Korea, and China all hit major milestones, with tax credit deadlines, new registration cycles, and local incentives fueling the global boom.
“Global EV sales topped 2 million units in a single month for the first time, driven by record-breaking demand across major markets,” said Rho Motion’s data manager Charles Lester. “The US surged ahead as buyers raced to claim expiring tax credits, the UK hit new highs on the back of fresh registration plates and the Electric Car Grant, and South Korea set records thanks to Tesla, Hyundai, Kia, and rising BYD imports. Year to date, EV sales have reached 14.7 million – up 26%.”
EV sales by the numbers YTD (Jan–Sept 2025)
- Global: 14.7 million (+26%)
- China: 9.0 million (+24%)
- Europe: 3.0 million (+32%)
- North America: 1.5 million (+11%)
- Rest of World: 1.2 million (+48%)
Europe surges on incentives
Europe had a record-breaking month with 427,000 EVs sold, up 36% year-over-year and 55% from August. The UK led the charge with record demand tied to the launch of new license plates and the government’s Electric Car Grant, introduced in July. BEV sales rose 30% year-over-year, while PHEVs jumped nearly 60%.
Germany’s EV market is expected to get another boost in 2026 after the government approved a new €3 billion ($3.5 billion) incentive package targeting low- and middle-income households. It replaces the subsidy scheme that expired in December 2023. Italy and Spain also continue to see strong growth, with sales up two-thirds and more than double, respectively, compared to 2024.
US buyers rushed to beat tax credit deadlines
In North America, EV sales soared 66% year-over-year in September as US consumers scrambled to take advantage of federal incentives before they expired on September 30. The tax credits supported both purchases and leases.
But Rho Motion expects Q4 2025 demand to dip sharply as those credits disappear. Some automakers are already taking defensive steps: Hyundai has cut prices, while Mercedes-Benz has paused production of four EV models. GM has suspended a production shift at its Spring Hill, Tennessee, plant, and Volkswagen is stopping ID.4 production in Tennessee in October. Nissan has gone further, scrapping its plans to manufacture EVs in the US altogether.
China is the world’s EV powerhouse
China still dominates the global EV market, selling 1.3 million EVs in September, a record-breaking month powered by strong BEV demand. Pure-electric sales rose 28% year-over-year to 800,000 units, while PHEVs and range-extended EVs dipped by 2% to 470,000.
China has sold nearly 9 million EVs YTD, up 24% from 2024, cementing its position as the world’s largest and most mature EV market.
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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On today’s hyped up hybrid episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got the first extended range electric Jeep in North America – the 500-mile new Grand Wagoneer PLUS news that Mazda is getting into the plug-in price war, and a whole lot more.
Today’s episode is brought to you by Climate XChange, a nonpartisan nonprofit working to help states pass effective, equitable climate policies. The nonprofit just kicked off its 10th annual EV raffle, where participants have multiple opportunities to win their dream model. Visit CarbonRaffle.org/Electrek to learn more.
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If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
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