Turkey’s runoff election is paralyzing key oil exports from northern Iraq
A satellite image showing the port of Ceyhan centred on August 18, 2015 in Turkey.
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Turkey’s runoff election is compounding delays to restart roughly 450,000 barrels per day of Iraqi crude oil exports, as Ankara studies its relationship with Baghdad, analysts and market sources told CNBC.
Oil typically flows through Turkey from both the Iraqi state and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). More specifically, this Kirkuk crude flows down the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline linking the north of the Gulf country with Turkey’s Ceyhan port in the Mediterranean. But the flows have been paralyzed since March 25 by a legal dispute involving federal Iraq, the KRG and Turkey.
Resolution pends on the result of a second presidential vote this weekend, but a prolonged halt could reduce Iraqi crude production.
The KRG had previously trucked its crude exports across borders, until it linked its major oil-producing fields to the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and began shipping crude in 2014. Federal Baghdad denounced Erbil’s independent crude sales as illegal, threatening to ban customers of such supplies from purchasing Iraq’s larger Basra crude volumes.
After a nine-year suit, the International Chamber of Commerce’s Court of Arbitration in Paris found that Turkey violated the 1973 version of a pipeline transit agreement between Baghdad and Ankara over 2014-2018. Turkey was ordered to pay Iraq roughly $1.5 billion in damages, according to Reuters. A second arbitration suit covering 2018 to date is still ongoing.
The ICC verdict followed a domestic win for Baghdad, after Iraq’s federal court in February 2022 pronounced the KRG’s oil and gas legislation unconstitutional and invalidated its contracts with foreign firms. This decision led to U.S. companies deciding to exit contracts in Kurdistan and deterred some KRG oil buyers from further purchases.
Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani on May 23 said that Baghdad has informed Turkey it is able to restart flows through Ceyhan and awaits Ankara’s response.
“Our colleagues in Turkey said there are some evaluative issues that they have to take into account. And that resulted from the earthquake,” he said, noting that an Iraqi delegation will be sent at an unspecified time to Turkey to discuss the restart.
Kirkuk crude is exported from the Botas terminal at Ceyhan in southern Turkey, separate from Azeri crude flows shipped out from the nearby Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan port terminal. Botas resumed loadings the day after the devastating earthquake of Feb. 6 that killed at least a combined 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria, according to the U.N. The BTC terminal suffered a longer outage.
Several trade, shipping and oil producing sources — who could only comment anonymously because of contractual obligations — told CNBC that, following a request from Baghdad, Ankara was widely expected to resume Kirkuk crude exports from Ceyhan on May 13 — a day before presidential elections in Turkey, whose inconclusive first round on May 14 stymied the oil’s resumption.
Presidential purview
The sources stressed that Turkish authorities are loathe to take responsibility for the restart, while incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fights primary rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to prolong his roughly two-decade rule.
“The main issue with the resumption of the oil through Ceyhan is the elections ongoing in Turkey. Another obstacle in front of the resumption of oil is the ongoing case at ICC in Paris against Turkey by Baghdad from 2018 until now. Ankara asks Baghdad to drop this case, but Baghdad has yet to do so,” political analyst and former Kurdistan official Lawk Ghafuri told CNBC.
“The ruling party in Turkey [Erdogan’s AKP] wants to settle the elections and then deal with KRG’s oil with Baghdad.”
Other analysts further emphasized Turkey’s priority to avoid further legal disputes by insisting on a strict, clear agreement on the legality of oil exports between Baghdad and Erbil. Current deals between the two counterparties are political accords, rather than legislation.
“There are still lots of technicalities that need to be sorted out between the KRG and Baghdad. Although there has been an initial deal, the details have not been fleshed out in terms of how oil [is] to be exported and which side has control over the revenues,” Yerevan Saeed, research associate at the Arab Gulf Institute in Washington, told CNBC by email.
In addition to deciding marketing distribution, Baghdad and Kurdistan might also have to rework the agreements under which foreign firms have prepaid sums to Erbil in exchange for oil volumes, as well as the reimbursement contracts for foreign producers of Kurdish oil, market sources say.
Saeed noted Ankara may stretch negotiations with Baghdad to cover water resources from the Euphrates River and Turkey’s military presence in Kurdistan and Sinjar.
Bilal Wahab, Wagner fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, agreed that control of the Kurdish oil export flows arms Turkey with the leverage to ask Baghdad to drop its fine and second arbitration suit, as well as redefine the scope of Ankara’s business relationship with Iraq.
“This arbitration award is forcing a decision on Ankara: should they continue doing business with Kurdistan, where this has led to legal trouble with federal Iraq, or should they use this as a bird in hand to segue into getting the chance to do business in Iraq? All in all, by shutting down the pipeline, Turkey is not losing a lot, maybe the transit fee,” he told CNBC by phone, referring to Kurdistan’s payment to transport crude along the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.
Winner talks all
An Erdogan loss in the presidential battle could prolong the oil stalemate, traders warn, with Kilicdaroglu likely to require independent negotiations with Iraq — in a diplomatic point unlikely to enjoy pride of place on the new leader’s agenda.
Third-party candidate Sinan Ogan’s Monday endorsement of Erdogan has strengthened Erdogan’s position as Turks head to the polls.
Domestically, Erdogan has enjoyed a tumultuous relationship with Turkey’s largest ethnic minority, which typically accounts for 15-20% of the Turkish population. While Erdogan has had frequent rapprochement with KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, Wahab signals Turkey could still prioritize securing benefits from the oil export stalemate.
“I don’t think a victorious Erdogan would have any qualms about using the KRG as a leverage to get a good deal out of Baghdad: favourable terms for doing business in Iraq, dropping the fine that Turkey has to pay, or dropping some of the demands that Iraq has with regard to water [from the Euphrates] and Turkish military presence in Iraq,” he said.
GM sold over 21,000 electric vehicles in the US last month, its best yet. Despite the surge in August sales, GM warned that with the “irrational discounts” on EVs set to end soon, the market is due for a shake-up.
GM sells record EVs in August as irrational discounts end
August was GM’s best month ever for EV sales. The company sold over 21,000 electric models under the Chevy, GMC, and Cadillac brands last month.
The higher demand comes as buyers rush to secure the $7,500 federal tax credit, which is set to expire at the end of September.
Driven by the hot-selling Chevy Equinox EV, Cadillac Lyriq, and GMC Sierra EV, GM remains the second-best seller of EVs behind Tesla.
GM expects to see strong demand again this month, but without the credit, it expects changes next quarter. GM said, “There’s no doubt we’ll see lower EV sales next quarter.” The company anticipates it will take several months for the market to correct, adding that “We will almost certainly see a smaller EV market for a while.”
Like several automakers in the US, GM will adjust production accordingly, promising not to overproduce. Despite slower sales, it remains confident that its EV market share will continue to grow.
Since affordable EVs and luxury models have been the strongest segments, GM believes it’s in a better position than most. It already has “America’s most affordable 315+ range EV,” the Chevy Equinox EV. The electric Equinox is one of the few EVs with a starting price under $35,000 in the US.
Soon, the new Chevy Bolt EV will debut, which is expected to be even more affordable, starting at around $30,000.
With a full line-up of electric SUVs, Cadillac is the leading luxury EV brand, but that doesn’t include Tesla. And then there’s the Chevy and GMC electric pickup with segment-leading range, features, and more.
GM said as it adjusts to the “new EV market realities,” its ICE vehicles will provide flexibility while driving profits. We will learn more on October 1 when GM reports full third-quarter sales results.
Although I wouldn’t call it “irrational,” GM is offering generous discounts on EVs with the deadline approaching. The Chevy Equinox EV is listed for lease starting at just $249 per month with a new $1,250 conquest bonus. Chevy is also offering the $7,500 credit on top of 0% APR financing until the end of September.
Thinking about trying one of GM’s EVs for yourself? You can use the links below to find Chevy, Cadillac, and GMC models in your area.
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Global solar installations are breaking records again in 2025. In H1 2025, the world added 380 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity – a staggering 64% jump compared to the same period in 2024, when 232 GW came online. China was responsible for installing a massive 256 GW of that solar capacity.
For context, it took until September last year to pass the 350 GW mark. This year, the milestone was achieved in June. That pace cements solar as the fastest-growing source of new electricity generation worldwide. In 2024, global solar output rose by 28% (+469 terawatt-hours) from 2023, more growth than any other energy source.
Nicolas Fulghum, senior energy analyst at independent energy think tank Ember, said, “These latest numbers on solar deployment in 2025 defy gravity, with annual solar installations continuing their sharp rise. In a world of volatile energy markets, solar offers domestically produced power that can be rolled out at record speed to meet growing demand, independent of global fossil fuel supply chains.”
China’s solar dominance
China is leading this surge by a wide margin. In the first half of 2025, the country installed more than twice as much solar capacity as the rest of the world combined, accounting for 67% of global additions. That’s up from 54% in the same period last year. Developers rushed to complete projects before new wind and solar compensation rules took effect in June, fueling the spike. While that may lead to a slowdown in the second half of the year, new clean power procurement requirements for industry and bullish forecasts from China’s solar PV association (CPIA) suggest that 2025 will still surpass 2024’s record high.
The rest of the world
Other countries are adding solar at a healthy clip, too. Together, they installed an estimated 124 GW in the first half of 2025, a 15% year-over-year increase. India came in second with 24 GW, up 49% from last year’s 16 GW. The US ranked third with 21 GW, a 4% gain year-over-year despite recent moves by the Trump administration to suppress clean power deployment. Germany and Brazil saw slight dips, while the rest of the world added 65 GW, a 22% rise over 2024.
Africa’s solar market is also stirring. The continent imported 60% more solar panels from China over the past year, though a lack of reliable installation data makes it a challenge to track the true pace of deployment.
With installations surging across major markets and China driving the charge, 2025 is on track to be another record-breaking year for solar power.
Read more: China-made panels drive Africa’s 15 GW solar import milestone
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Porsche just axed two of its most iconic models. The gas-powered 718 Cayman and Boxster sports cars have been discontinued, with their new EV successors set to debut next year. However, Porsche isn’t the only brand killing off a popular nameplate.
Sports cars are due for EV successors in 2026
As it prepares for the all-electric replacements, Porsche has stopped taking new orders for the 718 Cayman and Boxster. For now, you can still order the vehicles from stock.
We’ve known for years that an electric replacement was on the way for the 718 lineup. Porsche CEO Oliver Blume confirmed in 2022 that the electric 718 successor would follow the Taycan and Macan EVs.
Although the new Cayman and Boxster EVs were expected to launch by the end of this year, it was pushed back due to software and battery sourcing delays.
Porsche initially planned to build the EV versions alongside the current ICE models at its Zuffenhausen plant, but that will no longer be the case. Despite rumors that Porsche was planning to extend 718 production, “high-ranking Porsche sources” told Autocar that’s not the plan.
The luxury sports car maker has dialed back its EV plans recently, with ICE Macan and Cayenne models now due to be sold alongside the electric versions.
Meanwhile, Porsche isn’t the only sports car maker killing off models with new EV successors on the way. Audi confirmed with Autoblog that the A7 and S7 will be discontinued after the 2025 model year.
In a statement, Audi said, “There are no 2026 Model Year A7 or S7 being offered as production shifts to the new A6 TFSI coming later this year.” However, the RS7 will live on as a 2026MY. The ICE A7 will be rebranded as the A6 TFSI, while the EV version will retain the A6 E-tron name, featuring a similar sportback design to the outgoing model.
Porsche and Audi have leaned into a more flexible “multi-energy” strategy, blaming slowing EV sales and a changing market.
Just last week, Porsche announced it no longer plans to build EV batteries in-house. Instead, it will focus on research and development.
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