Turkey’s runoff election is paralyzing key oil exports from northern Iraq
A satellite image showing the port of Ceyhan centred on August 18, 2015 in Turkey.
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Turkey’s runoff election is compounding delays to restart roughly 450,000 barrels per day of Iraqi crude oil exports, as Ankara studies its relationship with Baghdad, analysts and market sources told CNBC.
Oil typically flows through Turkey from both the Iraqi state and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). More specifically, this Kirkuk crude flows down the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline linking the north of the Gulf country with Turkey’s Ceyhan port in the Mediterranean. But the flows have been paralyzed since March 25 by a legal dispute involving federal Iraq, the KRG and Turkey.
Resolution pends on the result of a second presidential vote this weekend, but a prolonged halt could reduce Iraqi crude production.
The KRG had previously trucked its crude exports across borders, until it linked its major oil-producing fields to the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and began shipping crude in 2014. Federal Baghdad denounced Erbil’s independent crude sales as illegal, threatening to ban customers of such supplies from purchasing Iraq’s larger Basra crude volumes.
After a nine-year suit, the International Chamber of Commerce’s Court of Arbitration in Paris found that Turkey violated the 1973 version of a pipeline transit agreement between Baghdad and Ankara over 2014-2018. Turkey was ordered to pay Iraq roughly $1.5 billion in damages, according to Reuters. A second arbitration suit covering 2018 to date is still ongoing.
The ICC verdict followed a domestic win for Baghdad, after Iraq’s federal court in February 2022 pronounced the KRG’s oil and gas legislation unconstitutional and invalidated its contracts with foreign firms. This decision led to U.S. companies deciding to exit contracts in Kurdistan and deterred some KRG oil buyers from further purchases.
Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani on May 23 said that Baghdad has informed Turkey it is able to restart flows through Ceyhan and awaits Ankara’s response.
“Our colleagues in Turkey said there are some evaluative issues that they have to take into account. And that resulted from the earthquake,” he said, noting that an Iraqi delegation will be sent at an unspecified time to Turkey to discuss the restart.
Kirkuk crude is exported from the Botas terminal at Ceyhan in southern Turkey, separate from Azeri crude flows shipped out from the nearby Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan port terminal. Botas resumed loadings the day after the devastating earthquake of Feb. 6 that killed at least a combined 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria, according to the U.N. The BTC terminal suffered a longer outage.
Several trade, shipping and oil producing sources — who could only comment anonymously because of contractual obligations — told CNBC that, following a request from Baghdad, Ankara was widely expected to resume Kirkuk crude exports from Ceyhan on May 13 — a day before presidential elections in Turkey, whose inconclusive first round on May 14 stymied the oil’s resumption.
Presidential purview
The sources stressed that Turkish authorities are loathe to take responsibility for the restart, while incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fights primary rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to prolong his roughly two-decade rule.
“The main issue with the resumption of the oil through Ceyhan is the elections ongoing in Turkey. Another obstacle in front of the resumption of oil is the ongoing case at ICC in Paris against Turkey by Baghdad from 2018 until now. Ankara asks Baghdad to drop this case, but Baghdad has yet to do so,” political analyst and former Kurdistan official Lawk Ghafuri told CNBC.
“The ruling party in Turkey [Erdogan’s AKP] wants to settle the elections and then deal with KRG’s oil with Baghdad.”
Other analysts further emphasized Turkey’s priority to avoid further legal disputes by insisting on a strict, clear agreement on the legality of oil exports between Baghdad and Erbil. Current deals between the two counterparties are political accords, rather than legislation.
“There are still lots of technicalities that need to be sorted out between the KRG and Baghdad. Although there has been an initial deal, the details have not been fleshed out in terms of how oil [is] to be exported and which side has control over the revenues,” Yerevan Saeed, research associate at the Arab Gulf Institute in Washington, told CNBC by email.
In addition to deciding marketing distribution, Baghdad and Kurdistan might also have to rework the agreements under which foreign firms have prepaid sums to Erbil in exchange for oil volumes, as well as the reimbursement contracts for foreign producers of Kurdish oil, market sources say.
Saeed noted Ankara may stretch negotiations with Baghdad to cover water resources from the Euphrates River and Turkey’s military presence in Kurdistan and Sinjar.
Bilal Wahab, Wagner fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, agreed that control of the Kurdish oil export flows arms Turkey with the leverage to ask Baghdad to drop its fine and second arbitration suit, as well as redefine the scope of Ankara’s business relationship with Iraq.
“This arbitration award is forcing a decision on Ankara: should they continue doing business with Kurdistan, where this has led to legal trouble with federal Iraq, or should they use this as a bird in hand to segue into getting the chance to do business in Iraq? All in all, by shutting down the pipeline, Turkey is not losing a lot, maybe the transit fee,” he told CNBC by phone, referring to Kurdistan’s payment to transport crude along the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.
Winner talks all
An Erdogan loss in the presidential battle could prolong the oil stalemate, traders warn, with Kilicdaroglu likely to require independent negotiations with Iraq — in a diplomatic point unlikely to enjoy pride of place on the new leader’s agenda.
Third-party candidate Sinan Ogan’s Monday endorsement of Erdogan has strengthened Erdogan’s position as Turks head to the polls.
Domestically, Erdogan has enjoyed a tumultuous relationship with Turkey’s largest ethnic minority, which typically accounts for 15-20% of the Turkish population. While Erdogan has had frequent rapprochement with KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, Wahab signals Turkey could still prioritize securing benefits from the oil export stalemate.
“I don’t think a victorious Erdogan would have any qualms about using the KRG as a leverage to get a good deal out of Baghdad: favourable terms for doing business in Iraq, dropping the fine that Turkey has to pay, or dropping some of the demands that Iraq has with regard to water [from the Euphrates] and Turkish military presence in Iraq,” he said.
Tesla’s retro-futuristic diner with Superchargers and giant movie screens is ready to open, and I have to admit, it looks pretty sick.
This project has been in the works for a long time.
In 2018, Elon Musk said that Tesla planned to open an “old school drive-in, roller skates & rock restaurant at one of the new Tesla Supercharger locations in Los Angeles.” It was yet another “Is he joking?” kind of Elon Musk idea, but he wasn’t kidding.
A few months later, Tesla applied for building permits for “a restaurant and Supercharger station” at a location in Santa Monica. However, the project stalled for a long time, apparently due to local regulations.
Nevertheless, Tesla still moved forward with a Supercharger at the location, but it had to move the diner project to Hollywood. In 2022, Tesla filed the construction plans with the city, giving us the first look at what the automaker intends to build.
In 2023, the automaker broke ground on the site of the diner.
7 years after being originally announced, the project appears now ready to open:
Musk said that he ate at the diner last night and claimed that it is “one of the coolest spots in LA.” He didn’t say when it will open, but Tesla vehicles have been spotted at Supercharger and people appear to be testing the dinning experience inside.
A Tesla Optimus Robot can be seen inside the diner on a test rack. It looks like Tesla might use one for some tasks inside the diner.
Earlier this year, Tesla integrated the diner into its mobile app – hinting at some interaction through the app – possibly ordering from it.
Electrek’s Take
I think it looks pretty cool. I am a fan of the design and concept.
However, considering the state of the Tesla community, I don’t think I’d like the vibes. That said, it looks like Tesla isn’t prominently pushing its branding on the diner.
You can come and charge there, but it looks like Tesla is also aiming to get a wider clientele just for dining.
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Hyundai’s electric minivan is finally out in the open. The Staria EV was caught without camo near Hyundai’s R&D center in Korea, giving us a closer look at the electric minivan undisguised.
Hyundai’s electric minivan drops camo ahead of debut
The Staria arrived in 2021 as the successor to the Starex, Hyundai’s multi-purpose vehicle (MPV). Although the Staria has received several updates throughout the years, 2026 will be its biggest by far.
Hyundai will launch the Staria EV, its first electric minivan. Like the current model, the 2026 Staria will be available in several different configurations, including cargo, passenger, and even a camper version.
We’ve seen the Staria EV out in public a few times already. Last month, we got a glimpse of it while driving on public roads in Korea.
Despite the camouflage, new EV-like design elements were visible, including updated LED headlights and a full-length light bar. Although it’s still unclear, the electric version appears to be roughly the same size as the current Staria from the side, but slightly wider from the front.
New images posted on the South Korean forum Clien reveal a test car, expected to be Hyundai’s Staria electric minivan, without camo.
Like most Hyundai test cars, the prototype has a black front and a grey body. It still features a similar look to other prototypes we’ve seen, but you can clearly see the new facelift.
Earlier this year, a Staria EV was spotted in a parking lot in Korea, featuring a similar look. The electric version is nearly identical to the Staria Lounge, but with an added charge port and closed-off grille.
The Hyundai Staria EV is expected to make its global debut later this year. Technical details have yet to be revealed, but it’s expected to feature either a 76 kWh or 84 kWh battery, providing a range of around 350 km (217 miles) to 400 km (249 miles).
Hyundai’s electric SUV arrives after Kia introduced its first electric van, the PV5, which launched in Europe and Korea earlier this year.
In Europe, the Kia Passenger PV5 model is available with two battery pack options: 51.5 kWh and 71.2 kWh, providing WLTP ranges of 179 miles and 249 miles, respectively. The Cargo version has a WLTP range of 181 miles or 247 miles.
Source: TheKoreanCarBlog, Clien
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