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A satellite image showing the port of Ceyhan centred on August 18, 2015 in Turkey.

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Turkey’s runoff election is compounding delays to restart roughly 450,000 barrels per day of Iraqi crude oil exports, as Ankara studies its relationship with Baghdad, analysts and market sources told CNBC.

Oil typically flows through Turkey from both the Iraqi state and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). More specifically, this Kirkuk crude flows down the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline linking the north of the Gulf country with Turkey’s Ceyhan port in the Mediterranean. But the flows have been paralyzed since March 25 by a legal dispute involving federal Iraq, the KRG and Turkey.

Resolution pends on the result of a second presidential vote this weekend, but a prolonged halt could reduce Iraqi crude production.

The KRG had previously trucked its crude exports across borders, until it linked its major oil-producing fields to the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and began shipping crude in 2014. Federal Baghdad denounced Erbil’s independent crude sales as illegal, threatening to ban customers of such supplies from purchasing Iraq’s larger Basra crude volumes.

After a nine-year suit, the International Chamber of Commerce’s Court of Arbitration in Paris found that Turkey violated the 1973 version of a pipeline transit agreement between Baghdad and Ankara over 2014-2018. Turkey was ordered to pay Iraq roughly $1.5 billion in damages, according to Reuters. A second arbitration suit covering 2018 to date is still ongoing.

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The ICC verdict followed a domestic win for Baghdad, after Iraq’s federal court in February 2022 pronounced the KRG’s oil and gas legislation unconstitutional and invalidated its contracts with foreign firms. This decision led to U.S. companies deciding to exit contracts in Kurdistan and deterred some KRG oil buyers from further purchases.

Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani on May 23 said that Baghdad has informed Turkey it is able to restart flows through Ceyhan and awaits Ankara’s response.

“Our colleagues in Turkey said there are some evaluative issues that they have to take into account. And that resulted from the earthquake,” he said, noting that an Iraqi delegation will be sent at an unspecified time to Turkey to discuss the restart.

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Kirkuk crude is exported from the Botas terminal at Ceyhan in southern Turkey, separate from Azeri crude flows shipped out from the nearby Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan port terminal. Botas resumed loadings the day after the devastating earthquake of Feb. 6 that killed at least a combined 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria, according to the U.N. The BTC terminal suffered a longer outage.

Several trade, shipping and oil producing sources — who could only comment anonymously because of contractual obligations — told CNBC that, following a request from Baghdad, Ankara was widely expected to resume Kirkuk crude exports from Ceyhan on May 13 — a day before presidential elections in Turkey, whose inconclusive first round on May 14 stymied the oil’s resumption.

Presidential purview

The sources stressed that Turkish authorities are loathe to take responsibility for the restart, while incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fights primary rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to prolong his roughly two-decade rule.

“The main issue with the resumption of the oil through Ceyhan is the elections ongoing in Turkey. Another obstacle in front of the resumption of oil is the ongoing case at ICC in Paris against Turkey by Baghdad from 2018 until now. Ankara asks Baghdad to drop this case, but Baghdad has yet to do so,” political analyst and former Kurdistan official Lawk Ghafuri told CNBC.

“The ruling party in Turkey [Erdogan’s AKP] wants to settle the elections and then deal with KRG’s oil with Baghdad.” 

Other analysts further emphasized Turkey’s priority to avoid further legal disputes by insisting on a strict, clear agreement on the legality of oil exports between Baghdad and Erbil. Current deals between the two counterparties are political accords, rather than legislation.

“There are still lots of technicalities that need to be sorted out between the KRG and Baghdad. Although there has been an initial deal, the details have not been fleshed out in terms of how oil [is] to be exported and which side has control over the revenues,” Yerevan Saeed, research associate at the Arab Gulf Institute in Washington, told CNBC by email.

Turkey's unorthodox economic policy will be difficult to sustain, strategist says

In addition to deciding marketing distribution, Baghdad and Kurdistan might also have to rework the agreements under which foreign firms have prepaid sums to Erbil in exchange for oil volumes, as well as the reimbursement contracts for foreign producers of Kurdish oil, market sources say.

Saeed noted Ankara may stretch negotiations with Baghdad to cover water resources from the Euphrates River and Turkey’s military presence in Kurdistan and Sinjar.

Bilal Wahab, Wagner fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, agreed that control of the Kurdish oil export flows arms Turkey with the leverage to ask Baghdad to drop its fine and second arbitration suit, as well as redefine the scope of Ankara’s business relationship with Iraq.

“This arbitration award is forcing a decision on Ankara: should they continue doing business with Kurdistan, where this has led to legal trouble with federal Iraq, or should they use this as a bird in hand to segue into getting the chance to do business in Iraq? All in all, by shutting down the pipeline, Turkey is not losing a lot, maybe the transit fee,” he told CNBC by phone, referring to Kurdistan’s payment to transport crude along the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.

Winner talks all

An Erdogan loss in the presidential battle could prolong the oil stalemate, traders warn, with Kilicdaroglu likely to require independent negotiations with Iraq — in a diplomatic point unlikely to enjoy pride of place on the new leader’s agenda.

Third-party candidate Sinan Ogan’s Monday endorsement of Erdogan has strengthened Erdogan’s position as Turks head to the polls.

Domestically, Erdogan has enjoyed a tumultuous relationship with Turkey’s largest ethnic minority, which typically accounts for 15-20% of the Turkish population. While Erdogan has had frequent rapprochement with KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, Wahab signals Turkey could still prioritize securing benefits from the oil export stalemate.

“I don’t think a victorious Erdogan would have any qualms about using the KRG as a leverage to get a good deal out of Baghdad: favourable terms for doing business in Iraq, dropping the fine that Turkey has to pay, or dropping some of the demands that Iraq has with regard to water [from the Euphrates] and Turkish military presence in Iraq,” he said.

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Tesla is ending its referral program on April 30th worldwide

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Tesla is ending its referral program on April 30th worldwide

Tesla is once again axing its referral program, which allowed owners to earn prizes by referring new buyers to buy a Tesla.

For many years now, Tesla has offered some sort of program to allow current owners to benefit from evangelizing the brand.

It started early on, when Tesla owners recognized that they had “sold” several Teslas to their friends via test drives, conversations, and so on, and owners asked Tesla to implement a scheme to give them referral rewards.

The program was originally launched in 2015, and has evolved many times since then. It started off as a direct $1,000 reward, but later turned into various tier systems, point systems, and so on.

A buyer would use a current owner’s referral link to place an order, and in return the buyer would get some sort of benefit (a discount, some free supercharging, or some free FSD access), and the referrer would get credit towards some sort of prize.

At one point, Tesla even promised free or discounted next-gen Roadsters, and ended up promising giving away around 80 of them – or at least, promising to, whenever that car (or is it even a car?) may or may not finally get made.

Unsurprisingly, after promising such substantial prizes, Tesla substantially reduced the prizes available in 2019, and later ended the program for everything except solar roof in 2021.

But the next year, Tesla brought the referral program back, though again in a more limited form. This version would give buyers either temporary free supercharging, temporary FSD access, temporary premium connectivity, or $500 off a new vehicle (depending on when you purchased the vehicle), and referrers would get credits that could be redeemed in Tesla’s shop for merchandise or accessories.

It also occasionally offered special prizes like accelerated Cybertruck delivery, invites to the Cybertruck delivery event, or entries into vehicle sweepstakes that could be purchased with referral credits.

However, all of that is ending now, on April 30th. Tesla announced today that the referral program will be shut down in all markets on that date.

Tesla has not yet updated the legalese on its referral page, so we don’t know the specifics yet of how it will be retired. Orders made before April 30th may still qualify for credits if delivered after April 30th, and referral credits already earned may be redeemable after that date (Sawyer Merritt says both of these things will be true, but we don’t know his source for that). Given that credits earned beforehand do have an expiry date, we expect that Tesla will have to honor them until their expiry date, but some rewards may disappear before those expiry dates come.

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Tesla cuts prices by $2,000 in US, Model Y back to its lowest price ever

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Tesla cuts prices by ,000 in US, Model Y back to its lowest price ever

Tesla has dropped the price of the Model Y, Model S and Model X by $2,000 each in the US. Model 3 prices remain the same, as do prices of the newly-released Cybertruck.

Tesla has had quite the week, between firing 10% of its workforce and losing two key executives, filing to get CEO Elon Musk’s voided $55 billion pay package reinstated, and putting its upcoming $25k car on hold.

All this news comes after disappointing quarterly delivery results, with inventory rising to high levels.

Perhaps in anticipation of these poor delivery results, last quarter, Tesla put a “temporary” discount on the Model Y its most popular vehicle (and the world’s best-selling vehicle), lowering prices by $1,000 for just a few weeks. After that discount lapsed, it warned buyers ahead of time that prices would increase again by $1,000 at the end of the quarter.

Those prices did indeed increase on April 1 – but now, less than three weeks later, the price is back down again.

As of today, Tesla has dropped prices on all trims of its Model Y, along with the Model S and Model X as well.

The Model Y RWD now starts at $42,990, down from $44,990. Model Y Long Range is $47,990, when it was previously $49,990. Model Y Performance is now $51,490, previously $53,490.

This is equivalent to the price of the Model Y during Tesla’s temporary discount in February, which only lasted a couple weeks.

Tesla’s more expensive Model S and X vehicles are now cheaper as well. While $2,000 isn’t as big a chunk of either of their prices, they’ve got the same discount as the Model Y did, with $2k taken off of each trim.

The Model S Long Range now starts at $72,990 and Model S Plaid at $87,990, with the Model X Long Range starting at $77,990 and Model X Plaid at $92,990.

This also happens to be the lowest price for the Model X ever, which also qualifies for the federal tax credit and thus could cost as little as $70,490 upfront (assuming you’re under the income cap, which many buyers of that vehicle won’t be).

Tesla has not referred to this as a “temporary” discount, unlike it did with Model Y’s last discount. This seems to just be a standard random Tesla price cut, as we’ve seen quite often, especially in the last couple years.

The Model 3, which recently received a big refresh and is about to receive an updated “ludicrous” performance spec, still has the same purchase price as yesterday. However, as of two days ago, Tesla is now offering a $299/mo lease on the Model 3, whereas previously it had charged $329/mo.

Cheapest US Model Y ever?

At $42,990 base price, the Model Y is now a “$35k car” after taking into account federal EV incentives, which are now available upfront at point-of-sale.

This $35,490 post-incentive price is tied for the cheapest price for the Tesla Model Y in the US yet, though the previous time Model Ys were this cheap was considered a “temporary discount” by Tesla. It beats the previous “permanent” low price of $36,490.

Early on, Tesla had offered a Standard Range Model Y as low as $39,990, but at the time it did not qualify for the tax credit as Tesla’s credits under the previous law had run out. Plus, it only appeared on the site for orders for a couple weeks, showing up in early January 2021, then getting a price cut in February before being removed from the configurator a week later. It was supposedly still available “off menu” as a custom order for a while.

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VW Chattanooga plant, where ID.4 is made, votes to unionize in historic move

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VW Chattanooga plant, where ID.4 is made, votes to unionize in historic move

VW’s Chattanooga Assembly Plant has voted to join UAW, in a historic move on the back of several recent union wins in the US.

The UAW have had quite a year, launching an unprecedented strike against all three major US automakers at the same time last September. The tactic worked, and six weeks later the UAW had made a deal with all three automakers, winning big pay increases and other assurances from each of them.

The win didn’t just help UAW workers, though, as soon after the strikes closed, several other companies announced big pay increases. Workers at VW, Hyundai, Toyota, Honda and Tesla all earned pay increases of about 10% or more as companies recognized the need to compete for skilled workers with better packages.

UAW President Shawn Fain called this “the UAW bump,” and said UAW stands for “U Are Welcome,” highlighting to non-union workers that strong unions help workers across the economy, not just at their own respective shops.

After these wins, the UAW announced their intention to unionize all other US automakers at the same time – an idea which President Biden lent his support to. UAW encouraged employees from other plants to signal their intent to join up by signing a union card through the website uaw.org/join/.

Fain even said that when the newly-negotiated contracts with the “Big Three” come up for renegotiation (on May 1, 2028 – International Workers’ Day), that this time the negotiations “won’t just be with a Big Three, but with a Big Five or Big Six” – meaning that the UAW plan to have unionized other automakers by that timeframe.

And today, they’ve got their first big win.

Today’s VW vote was the first test of UAW’s strategy, and while votes are still being counted, 2,300 workers have voted yes out of around 4,300 eligible workers, meaning that even if all remaining votes are “no” votes, the measure would still pass with a majority.

Chattanooga’s vote makes history in several ways. It’s the first time in over 50 years that an automaker has newly unionized in the US, the first unionized auto plant in the US South, and the first time a plant owned by a foreign automaker has unionized in the US.

Prior to the vote, Chattanooga was actually VW’s only non-union plant worldwide. In fact, in VW’s home country of Germany, every company over a certain size must have worker representation, generally in the form of union representatives, on the company board.

The plant had conducted other union votes in the past, in both 2014 and 2019, but both failed by slim margins. But the plant has more than doubled in employment since 2019, along with more union momentum now than there was then.

Past votes lost at least partially due to opposition from republican state government officials who oppose worker representation. Today’s vote was opposed by Tennessee’s republican governor, Bill Lee, and republican governors from other nearby states.

Past votes were also affected by corruption scandals that left UAW’s former appointed presidents in prison. Current UAW President Fain is the first elected UAW president, as opposed to previous presidents that had all been appointed.

VW’s Chattanooga plant currently produces the VW ID.4 and the VW Atlas. The ID.4 was brought to Chattanooga in order to gain access to the US EV tax credit, and VW has considered bringing production of other EVs to the plant.

This was the first success of UAW’s new strategy, but it may not be the last. There is already another vote scheduled for next month at Mercedes’ plant in Alabama (a state where republican lawmakers recently passed a law to try to limit worker representation). That vote will occur from May 13-17, and if successful, would mean nearly 10,000 unionized autoworkers in the South over the course of just a few weeks.

Electrek’s Take

Unions are having a bit of a moment in the US, in recent years reaching their highest popularity ever since surveys started asking about them.

Much of union popularity has been driven by COVID-19-related disruptions across the economy, with workers becoming unsatisfied due to mistreatment (labeling everyone “essential,” companies ending work-from-home) and with the labor market getting tighter with over 1 million Americans dead from the virus and another 2-4 million out of work due to long COVID.

Unions have seized on this dissatisfaction to build momentum in the labor movement, with successful strikes across many industries and organizers starting to organize workforces that had previously been non-union.

However, union membership has been down over several decades in the US. As a result, pay hasn’t kept pace with worker productivity, and income distribution has become more unequal over time. It’s really not hard to see this influence when you plot these trends against each other.

It’s quite clear that lower union membership has resulted in lower inflation-adjusted compensation for workers, even as productivity has skyrocketed. As workers have produced more and more value for their companies, those earnings have gone more and more to their bosses rather than to the workers who produce that value. It all began in the ’80s, around the time of Reagan – a timeline that should be familiar to those who study social ills in America.

All of this isn’t just true in the US but also internationally. If you look at other countries with high levels of labor organization, they tend to have more fair wealth distribution across the economy and more ability for workers to get their fair share.

We’re seeing this in Sweden right now, as Tesla workers are still striking for better conditions. Since Sweden has 90% collective bargaining coverage, it tends to have a happy and well-paid workforce, and it seems clear that these two things are correlated. That strike is still continuing, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk – who just fired 14,000 people while holding the company hostage and begging for a $55 billion payday for himself – is seemingly uninterested in negotiating.

These are all reasons why, as I’ve mentioned in many of these UAW-related articles, I’m pro-union. And I think everyone should be – it only makes sense that people should have their interests collectively represented and that people should be able to join together to support each other and exercise their power collectively instead of individually.

This is precisely what companies do with industry organizations, lobby organizations, chambers of commerce, and so on. And it’s what people do when sorting themselves into local, state, or national governments. So naturally, workers should do the same. It’s just fair.

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