Turkey’s runoff election is paralyzing key oil exports from northern Iraq
A satellite image showing the port of Ceyhan centred on August 18, 2015 in Turkey.
Gallo Images | Gallo Images | Getty Images
Turkey’s runoff election is compounding delays to restart roughly 450,000 barrels per day of Iraqi crude oil exports, as Ankara studies its relationship with Baghdad, analysts and market sources told CNBC.
Oil typically flows through Turkey from both the Iraqi state and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). More specifically, this Kirkuk crude flows down the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline linking the north of the Gulf country with Turkey’s Ceyhan port in the Mediterranean. But the flows have been paralyzed since March 25 by a legal dispute involving federal Iraq, the KRG and Turkey.
Resolution pends on the result of a second presidential vote this weekend, but a prolonged halt could reduce Iraqi crude production.
The KRG had previously trucked its crude exports across borders, until it linked its major oil-producing fields to the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and began shipping crude in 2014. Federal Baghdad denounced Erbil’s independent crude sales as illegal, threatening to ban customers of such supplies from purchasing Iraq’s larger Basra crude volumes.
After a nine-year suit, the International Chamber of Commerce’s Court of Arbitration in Paris found that Turkey violated the 1973 version of a pipeline transit agreement between Baghdad and Ankara over 2014-2018. Turkey was ordered to pay Iraq roughly $1.5 billion in damages, according to Reuters. A second arbitration suit covering 2018 to date is still ongoing.
The ICC verdict followed a domestic win for Baghdad, after Iraq’s federal court in February 2022 pronounced the KRG’s oil and gas legislation unconstitutional and invalidated its contracts with foreign firms. This decision led to U.S. companies deciding to exit contracts in Kurdistan and deterred some KRG oil buyers from further purchases.
Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani on May 23 said that Baghdad has informed Turkey it is able to restart flows through Ceyhan and awaits Ankara’s response.
“Our colleagues in Turkey said there are some evaluative issues that they have to take into account. And that resulted from the earthquake,” he said, noting that an Iraqi delegation will be sent at an unspecified time to Turkey to discuss the restart.
Kirkuk crude is exported from the Botas terminal at Ceyhan in southern Turkey, separate from Azeri crude flows shipped out from the nearby Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan port terminal. Botas resumed loadings the day after the devastating earthquake of Feb. 6 that killed at least a combined 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria, according to the U.N. The BTC terminal suffered a longer outage.
Several trade, shipping and oil producing sources — who could only comment anonymously because of contractual obligations — told CNBC that, following a request from Baghdad, Ankara was widely expected to resume Kirkuk crude exports from Ceyhan on May 13 — a day before presidential elections in Turkey, whose inconclusive first round on May 14 stymied the oil’s resumption.
Presidential purview
The sources stressed that Turkish authorities are loathe to take responsibility for the restart, while incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fights primary rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to prolong his roughly two-decade rule.
“The main issue with the resumption of the oil through Ceyhan is the elections ongoing in Turkey. Another obstacle in front of the resumption of oil is the ongoing case at ICC in Paris against Turkey by Baghdad from 2018 until now. Ankara asks Baghdad to drop this case, but Baghdad has yet to do so,” political analyst and former Kurdistan official Lawk Ghafuri told CNBC.
“The ruling party in Turkey [Erdogan’s AKP] wants to settle the elections and then deal with KRG’s oil with Baghdad.”
Other analysts further emphasized Turkey’s priority to avoid further legal disputes by insisting on a strict, clear agreement on the legality of oil exports between Baghdad and Erbil. Current deals between the two counterparties are political accords, rather than legislation.
“There are still lots of technicalities that need to be sorted out between the KRG and Baghdad. Although there has been an initial deal, the details have not been fleshed out in terms of how oil [is] to be exported and which side has control over the revenues,” Yerevan Saeed, research associate at the Arab Gulf Institute in Washington, told CNBC by email.
In addition to deciding marketing distribution, Baghdad and Kurdistan might also have to rework the agreements under which foreign firms have prepaid sums to Erbil in exchange for oil volumes, as well as the reimbursement contracts for foreign producers of Kurdish oil, market sources say.
Saeed noted Ankara may stretch negotiations with Baghdad to cover water resources from the Euphrates River and Turkey’s military presence in Kurdistan and Sinjar.
Bilal Wahab, Wagner fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, agreed that control of the Kurdish oil export flows arms Turkey with the leverage to ask Baghdad to drop its fine and second arbitration suit, as well as redefine the scope of Ankara’s business relationship with Iraq.
“This arbitration award is forcing a decision on Ankara: should they continue doing business with Kurdistan, where this has led to legal trouble with federal Iraq, or should they use this as a bird in hand to segue into getting the chance to do business in Iraq? All in all, by shutting down the pipeline, Turkey is not losing a lot, maybe the transit fee,” he told CNBC by phone, referring to Kurdistan’s payment to transport crude along the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.
Winner talks all
An Erdogan loss in the presidential battle could prolong the oil stalemate, traders warn, with Kilicdaroglu likely to require independent negotiations with Iraq — in a diplomatic point unlikely to enjoy pride of place on the new leader’s agenda.
Third-party candidate Sinan Ogan’s Monday endorsement of Erdogan has strengthened Erdogan’s position as Turks head to the polls.
Domestically, Erdogan has enjoyed a tumultuous relationship with Turkey’s largest ethnic minority, which typically accounts for 15-20% of the Turkish population. While Erdogan has had frequent rapprochement with KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, Wahab signals Turkey could still prioritize securing benefits from the oil export stalemate.
“I don’t think a victorious Erdogan would have any qualms about using the KRG as a leverage to get a good deal out of Baghdad: favourable terms for doing business in Iraq, dropping the fine that Turkey has to pay, or dropping some of the demands that Iraq has with regard to water [from the Euphrates] and Turkish military presence in Iraq,” he said.
While Washington continues to threaten America’s economic security and position as a global technology leader by toying with the idea of killing the $7,500 Federal EV tax credit, the ENERGY STAR program, and other energy efficiency incentives, the private energy sector is stepping up with massive investments in battery storage, charging infrastructure, and commercial EV rebates – and helping fleet buyers navigate those new incentives is becoming part of the broader business plan.
The inspiration for this article was a recent announcement by Ford Pro, which is baking its incentive sourcing plan into its new new Electric Vehicle Incentive Consultation Service – a new offering designed to help Ford’s commercial customers navigate the rapidly-changing world of EV incentives.
The approach is working, too. In the few short weeks since launching the Consultation Service, tFord Pro helped customers discover over $40,000 in available incentives for charging purchases and $1.5 million for electric vehicle purchases.
Case(s) in point
Joliet Junior College in Illinois wanted to take advantage of the reduced air pollution, noise, and operating costs promised by EVs, but faced budget constraints that made the up-front costs of electrifying seem like an insurmountable obstacle. Consultants from Ford Pro were able to identify a number of state and local utility incentives the college was eligible for, which resulted in ra free L2 EV charger and an $8,000 EV charging infrastructure make-ready rebate from ComEd that, when combined, covered 100% of the college’s installation costs.
The college was also able to qualify for a $7,500 commercial EV rebate (also from ComEd) that was applied at the point of sale, allowing the college to begin realizing fuel savings on day one.
“I recently worked with Ford Pro to learn more about rebates for a 2025 Ford Lightning truck that will be used as a police patrol vehicle for our college campus,” explained Tracy Williams, Deputy Chief of the Joliet Junior College Police Department. “They went above and beyond my expectations in this process. The rebate we were eligible for was proactively added upfront to our quote. This service was a significant help to our small department, allowing us to allocate resources more effectively and reduce the initial outlay.”
Ford Pro isn’t alone
Startup manufacturers like Orange EV, ReVolt Motors, and Windrose – even 3PLs like YMX, Nuvve, and Highland Electric – have made cursory fleet assessments a core part of their initial go to market strategies.
Even giant legacy brand Ford, with its Ford Pro E-Switch Assist, is offering to take telematic data from existing gas- and diesel-powered Ford F-150 and Transit models and track each vehicle’s individual energy use to determine whether it’s a good candidate for replacement with a Ford EV.
“Smart tools informed by data like E-Switch Assist are opening up many new conversations with our commercial customers large and small about EV readiness; we’re already using E-Switch Assist regularly in consultations to help organizations determine if electric trucks and vans are right for them,” says Nate McDonald, EV strategy and cross vehicle brand manager at Ford Pro. “The importance of these tools and technologies goes beyond selling a customer a new vehicle—it changes mindsets about whether electric vehicles will work for their business while potentially saving them time and money.”
There’s no question, then, that E-Switch Assist is a great product, but it kind of highlights one of my big criticisms of using fleet assessment and grant sourcing products as an integrated G2M strategy for OEMs.
Electrek’s Jo’s Take
The problem with tying this kind of fleet assessment and incentive sourcing into a sales pitch of any kind is the question of credibility. Imagine you’re a fleet buyer for a large bakery looking to replace your aging diesel fleet with some new electric box vans. You’ve read about the Motiv fleet proving itself over millions of real-world miles, you’ve read about the incredible deals on the Chevy Brightdrop, and you even got to check out the new Bollinger B4 at an ACT Expo ride and drive. They all seem great, and they all seem to work – but will they work for you?
Maybe they will, but if you got a fleet assessment from Motiv, another one from Chevy, and a third one from Bollinger, do you think any of them would tell you to go hit your local Isuzu dealer if that was, indeed, the most cost-effective choice for your fleet’s specific needs? Or do you think that each analyst would, through a miracle of miracles involving novel pivot tables and a sketchy misrepresentation of the law of large numbers, discover that their company’s products were ideally suited to meet your fleet’s needs?
In fairness to Ford Pro, their E-Switch Assist product only looks at Ford products, identifying when ICE-powered F-150s and Transits can seamlessly be switched out for F-150 Lightning pickups and E-Transit electric vans. I’d also say that, in my experience, ReVolt founder Gus Gardner and Highland Electric CEO Duncan McIntyre are stand-up guys who would probably be the first to tell you if their company’s products aren’t right for you – but that’s easy for me to say when it’s not my millions of dollars and my job security on the line, you know?
That’s why I look at programs like what we have here in Chicago, where both Scooter and I are based, as real standouts. The local utility ComEd, which is mentioned in the Joliet Junior College example from Ford, above, offers an unbiased and complimentary Fleet Electrification Assessment to qualifying commercial customers. That assessment not only helps identify what assets are primed candidates to electrify, but also looks into the customers’ site, helping them understand their charging options and maximize savings with smart metering, intelligent off-peak charging schedules, and a $90 million EV rebate program to help fund their suggestions. (!)
On a national level, companies like ICF have a fifty year track record of providing fleets with the tools and information they need to maximize their fleets’ energy efficiency with solutions that include electrification, better route planning, and right-sizing, while companies like GNA (now part of TRC and hosts of the ACT Expo) have been doing similar work, sourcing billions of dollars in grants for fleets in California.
When it’s all coming together with the right information, product offering, and utility involvement, you see results – which is why Illinois’ EV growth is outpacing the rest of the nation by 4:1. Here’s hoping other states and utilities are paying attention, and start getting this EV thing right, too.
Original content from Electrek.
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U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as he gives remarks outside the West Wing at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 8, 2025.
Kent Nishimura | Reuters
President Donald Trump is standing in his own way when it comes to passing crypto legislation.
Lawmakers this week rejected the GENIUS Act — a bill meant to establish federal rules for stablecoins — due in part to concerns that President Trump’s personal cryptocurrency ventures have created an unprecedented conflict of interest.
“Currently, people who wish to cultivate influence with the president can enrich him personally by buying cryptocurrency he owns or controls,” Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., said in a statement to CNBC explaining his opposition to the bill. “This is a profoundly corrupt scheme. It endangers our national security and erodes public trust in government.”
Stablecoins are digital currencies that are pegged to the value of other assets, like the U.S. dollar.
Getting anything passed in Congress is a steep uphill battle for Republicans given their razor-thin majority in the House, filibuster-proof requirement in the Senate, and Democrats’ increasingly unified stance against President Trump’s agenda. But enough Democrats appeared to be on board with a stablecoin law to bring about a rare bipartisan win for the president.
That’s until $TRUMP got in the way.
The president’s meme coin, which he launched just before the inauguration in January, has added billions of dollars of paper worth to his coffers. Its value soared last month after the project ran a promotion offering top $TRUMP holders a dinner with the president and a “VIP White House tour.” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., called it a “pay-for-play scheme.” First Lady Melania Trump has a coin as well.
The GENIUS bill failed to advance in the Senate on Thursday. It needed 60 votes to move to the Senate floor for final passage. The final tally was 48 in favor and 49 against. Three senators didn’t vote.
Earlier in the week, Senate Democrats unveiled the “End Crypto Corruption Act,” spearheaded by Merkley and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, meant to prohibit elected officials and senior executive branch personnel and their families from issuing or endorsing digital assets.
But the key defections to the stablecoin legislation came last weekend, when a group of nine Senate Democrats — four of whom had previously voted for the bill in committee — said that they wouldn’t support it and called for stronger provisions to address “anti-money laundering, foreign issuers, and national security.”
‘Ongoing self-dealing’
Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware was one of the four. She pointed directly at Trump’s financial entanglements.
“I also remain concerned about the ongoing self-dealing and financial conflicts of interest being carried out by the Trump family,” she wrote in a statement on Thursday.
It’s not just about the $TRUMP and $MELANIA meme coins. There’s also the Trump family crypto venture World Liberty Financial, which was established last year and launched a stablecoin just as the administration pushed for looser regulations on digital assets.
Reports have indicated that Abu Dhabi-based MGX is using Trump’s stablecoin for a $2 billion investment in crypto exchange Binance, creating yet another potential conflict of interest for a sitting president.
For some investors and entrepreneurs in the crypto industry, the president’s pursuit of personal profits is creating a major impediment to long-awaited advancements. After years of setbacks during the Biden administration, the crypto lobby became a powerful force in funding Trump’s 2024 campaign and in successfully backing industry-friendly candidates for Congress.
“It’s unfortunate that personal business is getting in the way of good policy,” said Ryan Gilbert, founder of fintech venture fund Launchpad Capital. “I would hope that everybody in the administration, including the president, gets out of the way of good policy.”
The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment. At a press conference on Friday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, when asked about the meme coin dinner, that “the president is abiding by all conflict of interest laws.”
“The president is a successful businessman, and I think it’s one of the many reasons that people reelected him back to this office,” Leavitt said.
A number of top Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York have joined the parade of critics, targeting President Trump’s personal pursuits. Gillibrand helped introduce the GENIUS Act earlier this year, but she said this week that there are “a number of outstanding issues that needed to be addressed before the bill could pass the full Senate.”
“I believe it is essential to the future of the U.S. economy and to everyday Americans that we enact strict stablecoin regulations and consumer protections where none currently exist,” Gillibrand said in a statement. “I remain extremely confident and hopeful that very soon we can finish the job.”
Sen. Blumenthal called for an investigation into Trump-linked coins, demanding financial records from World Liberty Financial and slamming the president for “the attempted use of the White House to host competitions to prop up the value of $TRUMP.”
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, had supported the GENIUS Act but said he couldn’t move forward this week after Republicans declined to provide more time to negotiate.
“Without more time to at least finish the bill, there was no true bipartisan path forward,” he wrote on X.
Launchpad’s Gilbert said the GENIUS Act is just the first piece. More broadly, the president’s conflicts could have an impact on hopes for other legislative achievements and deregulation efforts as well as the reputation of the U.S. crypto industry on the world stage.
“We will be the laughing stocks of the world for this particular reason, and it will hold back continued investment and innovation,” Gilbert said. “There was hope for the past six months that that we could lead in the United States, and that investment should pour into crypto-related businesses, and then it will be simpler and doable again, for all companies to take a lead and to invest in crypto assets.”
However, he said, “if the GENIUS Act doesn’t pass, we’re back to square one.”
WATCH: Ether surges nearly 25% for its best week in four years: CNBC Crypto World
Volvo Cars has teased an all-new Volvo XC70 plug-in hybrid crossover with 400 hp and 200 km (approx. 125 miles) of all-electric range, giving it the longest battery-only range of any of the company’s plug-in hybrid offerings.
Built on the company’s new SMA platform for extended-range plug-in hybrids, the new XC70 resurrects an iconic name for the brand and represents an important product addition to the lineup and meet the growing demand for longer-range plug-in hybrids – especially in China, where the 2026 Volvo XC70 will be available for order later this year.
“The XC70 marks our strategic entry into the extended-range plug-in hybrid segment, a perfect bridge to full electrification,” says Håkan Samuelsson, president and returning chief executive of Volvo Cars. “[XC70] enables us to maintain and develop a balanced product portfolio, while offering a highly attractive alternative to customers who are not yet ready for fully electric cars. This is also an example of regionalization, where we adapt to the local market needs.”
Early reports indicate that the car shares a platform with the 400 hp Lynk & Co 08. It’s called the “CMA” in Lynk & Co speak, but the short version is 1.5L turbocharged engine and dual electric motors
Volvo XC70 PHEV SUV unveiled in China
Volvo is a Chinese-Swedish car brand owned by the Geely Group. The Volvo XC70 is a new PHEV SUV with all-wheel drive, designed and developed in China for the Chinese market.
The XC70 is based on the Lynk & Co 08. The wheelbase and… pic.twitter.com/mD2Ozb8SjO
— Tycho de Feijter (@TychodeFeijter) May 7, 2025
Up front, the XC70 features the same, shield-like closed grille as the brand’s newest all-electric models. It’s paired with an active grille shutter in the bumper that adjusts automatically opens and closes to to optimize for aerodynamics, cabin climate, and cooling – whatever is needed in the moment to maximize energy efficiency and, ultimately, driving range.
The trademark Volvo “Thor’s Hammer” headlight design has evolved into distinctive DRLs – the headlights on the XC70 are actually beneath those, and feature Matrix LED technology that adapts the headlights intelligently to road and traffic situations, helping to improve both visibility and safety without blinding everyone in your path.
Towards the rear, the vertical taillight design creates a modern look consistent with Volvo styling cues … styling cues, by the way, taken from the granddaddy of the entire XC line. The V70 Cross Country. Which, you know, is what “XC” is all about to begin with.
Volvo V 70 XC Cross Country
I mean, sure – the new XC70 isn’t boxy enough, but we all have to make sacrifices in the name of efficiency and ecology, right? And, frankly, if the new ES90 or EX90 models are any indication, XC70 drivers won’t be suffering too badly.
Launch is set for late Q3, with a base price of about 400.000 yuan (about $55,000 USD). No word yet on global availability.
It’s real pretty, guys
SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo Cars.
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