A satellite image showing the port of Ceyhan centred on August 18, 2015 in Turkey.
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Turkey’s runoff election is compounding delays to restart roughly 450,000 barrels per day of Iraqi crude oil exports, as Ankara studies its relationship with Baghdad, analysts and market sources told CNBC.
Oil typically flows through Turkey from both the Iraqi state and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). More specifically, this Kirkuk crude flows down the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline linking the north of the Gulf country with Turkey’s Ceyhan port in the Mediterranean. But the flows have been paralyzed since March 25 by a legal dispute involving federal Iraq, the KRG and Turkey.
Resolution pends on the result of a second presidential vote this weekend, but a prolonged halt could reduce Iraqi crude production.
The KRG had previously trucked its crude exports across borders, until it linked its major oil-producing fields to the Iraq-Turkey pipeline and began shipping crude in 2014. Federal Baghdad denounced Erbil’s independent crude sales as illegal, threatening to ban customers of such supplies from purchasing Iraq’s larger Basra crude volumes.
After a nine-year suit, the International Chamber of Commerce’s Court of Arbitration in Paris found that Turkey violated the 1973 version of a pipeline transit agreement between Baghdad and Ankara over 2014-2018. Turkey was ordered to pay Iraq roughly $1.5 billion in damages, according to Reuters. A second arbitration suit covering 2018 to date is still ongoing.
The ICC verdict followed a domestic win for Baghdad, after Iraq’s federal court in February 2022 pronounced the KRG’s oil and gas legislation unconstitutional and invalidated its contracts with foreign firms. This decision led to U.S. companies deciding to exit contracts in Kurdistan and deterred some KRG oil buyers from further purchases.
Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani on May 23 said that Baghdad has informed Turkey it is able to restart flows through Ceyhan and awaits Ankara’s response.
“Our colleagues in Turkey said there are some evaluative issues that they have to take into account. And that resulted from the earthquake,” he said, noting that an Iraqi delegation will be sent at an unspecified time to Turkey to discuss the restart.
Kirkuk crude is exported from the Botas terminal at Ceyhan in southern Turkey, separate from Azeri crude flows shipped out from the nearby Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan port terminal. Botas resumed loadings the day after the devastating earthquake of Feb. 6 that killed at least a combined 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria, according to the U.N. The BTC terminal suffered a longer outage.
Several trade, shipping and oil producing sources — who could only comment anonymously because of contractual obligations — told CNBC that, following a request from Baghdad, Ankara was widely expected to resume Kirkuk crude exports from Ceyhan on May 13 — a day before presidential elections in Turkey, whose inconclusive first round on May 14 stymied the oil’s resumption.
Presidential purview
The sources stressed that Turkish authorities are loathe to take responsibility for the restart, while incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fights primary rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to prolong his roughly two-decade rule.
“The main issue with the resumption of the oil through Ceyhan is the elections ongoing in Turkey. Another obstacle in front of the resumption of oil is the ongoing case at ICC in Paris against Turkey by Baghdad from 2018 until now. Ankara asks Baghdad to drop this case, but Baghdad has yet to do so,”political analyst and former Kurdistan official Lawk Ghafuri told CNBC.
“The ruling party in Turkey [Erdogan’s AKP] wants to settle the elections and then deal with KRG’s oil with Baghdad.”
Other analysts further emphasized Turkey’s priority to avoid further legal disputes by insisting on a strict, clear agreement on the legality of oil exports between Baghdad and Erbil. Current deals between the two counterparties are political accords, rather than legislation.
“There are still lots of technicalities that need to be sorted out between the KRG and Baghdad. Although there has been an initial deal, the details have not been fleshed out in terms of how oil [is] to be exported and which side has control over the revenues,” Yerevan Saeed, research associate at the Arab Gulf Institute in Washington, told CNBC by email.
In addition to deciding marketing distribution, Baghdad and Kurdistan might also have to rework the agreements under which foreign firms have prepaid sums to Erbil in exchange for oil volumes, as well as the reimbursement contracts for foreign producers of Kurdish oil, market sources say.
Saeed noted Ankara may stretch negotiations with Baghdad to cover water resources from the Euphrates River and Turkey’s military presence in Kurdistan and Sinjar.
Bilal Wahab, Wagner fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, agreed that control of the Kurdish oil export flows arms Turkey with the leverage to ask Baghdad to drop its fine and second arbitration suit, as well as redefine the scope of Ankara’s business relationship with Iraq.
“This arbitration award is forcing a decision on Ankara: should they continue doing business with Kurdistan, where this has led to legal trouble with federal Iraq, or should they use this as a bird in hand to segue into getting the chance to do business in Iraq? All in all, by shutting down the pipeline, Turkey is not losing a lot, maybe the transit fee,” he told CNBC by phone, referring to Kurdistan’s payment to transport crude along the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.
Winner talks all
An Erdogan loss in the presidential battle could prolong the oil stalemate, traders warn, with Kilicdaroglu likely to require independent negotiations with Iraq — in a diplomatic point unlikely to enjoy pride of place on the new leader’s agenda.
Third-party candidate Sinan Ogan’s Monday endorsement of Erdogan has strengthened Erdogan’s position as Turks head to the polls.
Domestically, Erdogan has enjoyed a tumultuous relationship with Turkey’s largest ethnic minority, which typically accounts for 15-20% of the Turkish population. While Erdogan has had frequent rapprochement with KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, Wahab signals Turkey could still prioritize securing benefits from the oil export stalemate.
“I don’t think a victorious Erdogan would have any qualms about using the KRG as a leverage to get a good deal out of Baghdad: favourable terms for doing business in Iraq, dropping the fine that Turkey has to pay, or dropping some of the demands that Iraq has with regard to water [from the Euphrates] and Turkish military presence in Iraq,” he said.
Can an EV really help power your home when the power goes out? It’s one of the biggest FAQs people have about electric cars — but the answer can be a bit confusing. It’s either a yes, with a but – or a no, with an unless. To find out which EVs can offer vehicle-to-home (V2H) tech to keep the lights on or even lower your energy bills, keep on reading.
Modern EVs have big, efficient batteries capable of storing enough energy to power home for days. That can mean backup power during a storm or the ability to use stored energy during expensive peak hours and recharge again when kilowatts are cheap.
That’s all true – but only in theory. Because, while your EV might have a big battery, that doesn’t mean it has the special hardware and software that allow electricity to safely flow back out of the car baked in. Car companies call this vehicle-to-home (V2H) or bi-directional charging, and only a handful of models currently support it. That’s that, “yes, with a but” asterisk.
Yes, an EV can power your home, but it has to be one of these.
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Ford F-150 Lightning
F-150 Lightning powers home; via Ford.
Ford made early headlines using its F-150 Lightning as a life-saving generator during winter ice storms and hurricanes, so it should come as no surprise that it’s included in this list. The best-selling electric truck in America can send up to 9.6 kW of power from its onboard batteries back to the house. More than enough to keep the lights on and the refrigerator running during an outage.
To make it work, you’ll need to install the Charge Station Pro (formerly called Intelligent Backup Power) home charger, the Home Integration System (HIS), which includes an inverter, a transfer switch, and a small battery to switch the system on, as well Ford’s Charge Station Pro 80A bi-directional charger (which comes free with the Extended Range F-150 Lightning, but costs about $1,300 otherwise).
All-in, you’re looking at about $5,000 in hardware, plus installation, to make it work.
When paired with the Quasar 2 bidirectional charger from Wallbox (and the associated Power Recovery Unit, or PRU), a fully-charged Kia EV9 can power a standard suburban home for three days. Longer, still, if you’re keeping the energy use low. The Wallbox Quasar 2 isn’t cheap, though – pricing starts at $6,440 (again, plus installation). For that price, you the PRU plus a wall-mounted 12 kW L2 charger with 12.8 kW of with discharge power on a split-phase system.
Pretty much all the GM EVs
Chevy Silverado, Equinox, and Blazer EVs at Tesla Supercharger; GM.
With the exception of the Chevy Brightdrop, GMC Hummer EV, and the hand-built, ultra-luxe Cadillac CELESTIQ, every Ultium-based GM EV can send battery power back to your home through GM Energy’s Ultium Home System – arguably the most fully integrated EV + battery backup + solar option out there outside of Tesla.
GM Energy says its new 19.2 kW Powershift Charger delivers around 6-7% more juice than a typical 11.5 kW L2 charger, delivering up to 51 miles of range per charge hour. Bi-directional charging requires the Powershift Charger to be paired up with a compatible GM EV and the GM Energy V2H Enablement Kit. The full system retails for $12,699, plus installation, and can be financed through GM Financial.
NOTE: some 2024 models might require a software update to enable V2H functionality, which can be done either at the dealer or through an OTA update.
That rounds off the list of vehicles that ship with V2H software baked in, so if you’re wondering whether or not your EV can be used to power your home, now you know the answer is yes, as long as it’s one of the ones listed above.
But you might remember that I answered the initial question by saying it was either a yes, with a but – or a no, with an unless. So if you want to use your car’s battery as a backup, but don’t have one of the EVs liksted above, that doesn’t mean you’re completely out of luck.
No, with an unless
Fred Lambert explains Sigenergy V2X system.
As some of the earliest and most enthusiastic EV adopters, Tesla fans have also been among the loudest advocates for using the energy stored their cars’ batteries to back up their homes — or even the grid itself. Unfortunately for them, the slow-selling Cybertruck is the only Tesla vehicle that officially supports bi-directional charging. If you’re one of the many Model 3 and Y owners frustrated by those delays, there’s good news: those vehicles are now capable of V2H charging thanks to an “impressive” Powerwall competitor, Sigenergy.
The good news doesn’t stop there, however. The Sigenergy V2X also works with both the popular Kia EV6 and Electrek‘s 2024 EV of the Year, the Volvo EX30 over the DIN70121 protocol, and several VW/Audi/Porsche and Mercedes-Benz EVs over the ISO15118-2 protocol.
Our own Editor-in-Chief, Fred Lambert, recently went on a Sigenergy deep dive with Sylvain Juteau, President of Roulez Electrique, and came away deeply impressed with the system. I’ve included the video, above, and you can read more about the system itself at this link.
And, of course, I look forward to learning about any V2H models or more universal battery backup systems from you, the smartest readers in the blogosphere, in the comments.
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Tesla has changed the meaning of “Full Self-Driving”, also known as “FSD”, to give up on its original promise of delivering unsupervised autonomy.
Since 2016, Tesla has claimed that all its vehicles in production would be capable of achieving unsupervised self-driving capability.
CEO Elon Musk has claimed that it would happen by the end of every year since 2018.
Tesla has even sold a software package, known as “Full Self-Driving Capability” (FSD), for up to $15,000 to customers, promising that the advanced driver-assist system would become fully autonomous through over-the-air software updates.
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Almost a decade later, the promise has yet to be fulfilled, and Tesla has already confirmed that all vehicles produced between 2016 and 2023 don’t have the proper hardware to deliver unsupervised self-driving as promised.
Musk has been discussing the upgrade of the computers in these vehicles to appease owners, but there’s no concrete plan to implement it.
While there’s no doubt that Tesla has promised unsupervised self-driving capabilities to FSD buyers between 2016 and 2023, the automaker has since updated its language and now only sells “Full Self-Driving (Supervised)” to customers:
The fine print mentions that it doesn’t make the vehicle “autonomous” and doesn’t promise it as a feature.
In other words, people buying FSD today are not really buying the capability of unsupervised self-driving as prior buyers did.
One of these milestones is Tesla having “10 Million Active FSD Subscriptions.”
At first glance, this would be hopeful for FSD buyers since part of Musk’s compensation would be dependent on delivering on the FSD promises.
However, Tesla has changed the definition of FSD in the compensation package with an extremely vague one”
“FSD” means an advanced driving system, regardless of the marketing name used, that is capable of performing transportation tasks that provide autonomous or similar functionality under specified driving conditions.
Tesla now considers FSD only an “advanced driving system” that should be “capable of performing transportation tasks that prove autonomous or similar functionality”.
The current version of FSD, which requires constant supervising by the driver, could easily fit that description.
Therefore, FSD now doesn’t come with the inital promise of Tesla owners being able to go to sleep in their vehicles and wake up at their destination – a promise that Musk has used to sell Tesla vehicles for years.
Electrek’s Take
The way Tesla discusses autonomy with customers and investors versus how it presents it in its court filings and legally binding documents is strikingly different.
It should be worrying to anyone with an interest in this.
With this very vague description in the new CEO compensation package, Tesla could literally lower the price of FSD and even remove base Autopilot to push customers toward FSD and give Musk hundreds of billions of dollars in shares in the process.
There’s precedent for Tesla decreasing pricing on FSD. Initially, Musk said that Tesla would gradually increase the price of the FSD package as the features improved and approached unsupervised autonomy.
That was true for a while, but then Tesla started slashing FSD prices, which are now down $7,000 from their high in 2023:
The trend is quite apparent and coincidentally began when Tesla’s sales started to decline.
FSD is now a simple ADAS system without any promise of unsupervised self-driving. This might quite honestly be one of the biggest cases of false advertising or bait-and-switch ever.
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The new Chevy Bolt EV is set to enter production later this year, with one fewer shift, following GM’s reduction in production plans at several US plants. Apart from the Bolt, GM promised a new family of affordable EVs. Are those, too, now at risk?
GM says more affordable EVs are coming, but when?
GM remained the number two EV maker in the US after back-to-back record sales months in July and August. However, with the $7,500 federal tax credit set to expire at the end of the month, the company expects a slowdown.
On Thursday, GM sent a note to employees at its Spring Hill plant in Tennessee, outlining plans to reduce output of two Cadillac electric SUVs, the Lyriq and Vistiq.
A source close to the matter confirmed the news to Reuters, saying the production halt will begin in December. GM will significantly reduce output during the first five months of 2026, according to the source.
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GM is also delaying the second shift at its Fairfax Assembly Plant in Kansas City, where the new Chevy Bolt is slated to enter production later this year. The Bolt will be the first of a new series of affordable EVs that GM intends to build in Kansas.
GM plans to build a “next-gen affordable EV) in Kansas (Source: GM)
However, those too, may now be in jeopardy. According to local news outlets, GM Korea Technical Research Center (GMTCK), a spin-off of GM’s Korean subsidiary, was recently cut out of a secret small EV project it was developing.
GMTCK president Brian McMurray reportedly announced internally last month during a trip to the US that the project was cancelled and only 30% to 40% complete.
A GM Korea spokesperson clarified that “the EV project being led by GMTCK was a global undertaking, not undertaken solely by GM Korea. The spokesperson added, “The project itself has not been canceled; the role of the Korean team has simply changed.”
The new electric car, dubbed “Fun Family,” was scheduled to launch under the Chevy and Buick brands, using a single platform. Production was expected to begin in 2027 with deliveries starting in 2028.
2022 Chevy Bolt EUV (Source: GM)
GM Korea exports over 90% of the vehicles it makes to the US, but with the new auto tariffs, the subsidiary is expected to play a drastically smaller role, if any at all. The news is fueling the ongoing rumors that GM could withdraw from Korea altogether.
In addition to the tariffs, South Korea’s recently passed “Yellow Envelope Law” could make it even more difficult for GM with new labor laws.
Chevy Equinox EV LT (Source: GM)
Will this impact the affordable EVs GM is promising to launch in the US? They are scheduled to be built in Kansas, but with the R&D Center, GM’s second largest globally, following the US, claiming to be excluded from a major global EV project, it can’t be a good sign.
In the meantime, GM already has one of the most affordable electric vehicles in the US, the Chevy Equinox EV. Starting at under $35,000, the company calls it “America’s most affordable” EV with over 315 miles of range.
With the $7,500 federal tax credit still available, GM is promoting Chevy Equinox EV leases for under $250 a month. Nowadays, it’s hard to find any vehicle for under that.