With net migration set to hit a record high – the government faces questions over whether their rhetoric matches their actions
The government is trying to distance itself from thursday’s net migration figures.
There won’t be a minister on this morning’s media round, the home secretary and immigration minister will be firmly out of sight.
The reason – net migration for 2022 is expected to be more than 700,000, the highest level on record, and could well be more than double what it was pre-Brexit.
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As the Labour leader put it in PMQs: “If people want to see what uncontrolled immigration looks like all they have got to do is wake up tomorrow morning and look at the headlines”.
There are many reasons behind soaring migration, including schemes helping those coming from Hong Kong, Afghanistan and Ukraine; but the problem the prime minister, and home secretary, face is that they have chosen to put migration at the centre of their pitch to the country.
Suella Braverman’s views on immigration are well documented.
Last week in a speech seen by some as a future pitch for the leadership, she attacked the “unexamined drive towards multiculturalism” and said migration levels are “unsustainable”.
The “Stop the Boats” pledge, one of Rishi Sunak’s top five priorities, has become a defining slogan of this government.
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Former Downing Street pollster James Johnson says voters have a tendency to view illegal and legal migration together, and there is a “tension” between where the public, and the prime minister, stand on the issue.
He believes, unlike with illegal migration, the government are moving towards a position where “control of legal migration is more important than the reduction of migration”.
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The government is in damage control mode as they prepare for record-breaking net migration figures for 2022.
Number 10 insist they are committed to bringing down net migration.
The party have certainly been on a journey in the last decade, from David Cameron’s pledge to see migration in the tens of thousands, to Rishi Sunak last week appearing to back away from his predecessor Boris Johnson’s commitment that net migration would fall below 250,000.
The other issue is cabinet politics. The chancellor has already suggested the government is open to immigration in key sectors to help with a labour shortage, a view not shared by the home secretary.
Behind the scenes it has been suggested to me that public backlash to high immigration figures would help Suella Braverman make her case for tougher action on legal migration in cabinet.
Mrs Braverman has toughened the rules on students bringing families to the UK this week, but for some on the right of the party that’s not enough.
Craig Mackinlay, the Conservative MP for South Thanet, says the government “has not got a grip of migration”.
He narrowly beat Nigel Farage in the constituency in 2015, and believes the issue will dominate in his area at the next election. He fears constituents will vote against the Tories because “Britain does not feel like it’s working”.
Rishi Sunak may have avoided a fight with the right after saving Suella Braverman, deciding there is no case to investigate her over the speeding fine row, but tomorrow’s figures will ignite a fresh debate about immigration, and questions about whether the government’s rhetoric matches their action.
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The fast-moving developments on Trump’s Ukraine peace deal are dominating the G20 summit in South Africa, as European leaders scramble to put together a counter-proposal to the US-Russia 28-point plan and reinsert Ukraine into these discussions.
European countries are now working up proposals to put to President Trump ahead of his deadline of Thursday to agree a deal.
Ukraine is in a tight spot. It cannot reject Washington outright – it relies on US military support to continue this war – but neither can it accept the terms of a deal that is acutely favourable to Russia, requiring Ukraine to give up territory not even occupied by Moscow and reducing its army.
Overnight, the UK government has reiterated its position that any deal must deliver a “just and lasting peace”.
Ukraine war latest: Kyiv to discuss ending war in talks in Switzerland
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Keir Starmer calls for growth plan at G20
The prime minister, who spoke with E3 allies President Macron of France, Chancellor Merz of Germany and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine on the phone on Friday, is having more conversations today with key partners as they work out how to handle Trump and improve this deal for Ukraine.
One diplomatic source told me allies are being very careful not to criticise Trump or his approach for fear of exacerbating an already delicate situation.
Instead, the prime minister is directing his attacks at Russia.
Read more:
Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan in full
Analysis: We could all pay if Europe doesn’t guarantee Ukraine’s security
Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a plenary session on the first day of the G20 Leaders’ Summit. Pic: Reuters
“There is only one country around the G20 table that is not calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and one country that is deploying a barrage of drones and missiles to destroy livelihoods and murder innocent civilians,” he said on Friday evening.
“Time and again, Russia pretends to be serious about peace, but its actions never live up to its words.”
Pic: AP
On the Trump plan, the prime minister said allies are meetin on Saturday “to discuss the current proposal on the table, and in support of Trump’s push for peace, look at how we can strengthen this plan for the next phase of negotiations”.
Strengthening the plan really means that they want to rebalance it towards Ukraine’s position and make it tougher on Russia.
“Ukraine has been ready to negotiate for months, while Russia has stalled and continued its murderous rampage. That is why we must all work together with both the US and Ukraine, to secure a just and lasting peace once and for all,” said the prime minister.
“We will continue to coordinate closely with Washington and Kyiv to achieve that. However, we cannot simply wait for peace.
“We must strain every sinew to secure it. We must cut off Putin’s finance flows by ending our reliance on Russian gas. It won’t be easy, but it’s the right thing to do.”
Pic: AP
Europeans hadn’t even seen this deal earlier in the week, in a sign that the US is cutting other allies out of negotiations – for now at least.
Starmer and other European leaders want to get to a position where Ukraine and Europe are at least at the table.
There is some discussion about whether European leaders such as Macron and Meloni might travel to Washington to speak to Trump early next week in order to persuade him of the European and Ukrainian perspective, as leaders did last August following the US-Russian summit in Alaska.
But Sky News understands there are no discussions about the PM travelling to Washington next week ahead of the budget.
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