The government is trying to distance itself from thursday’s net migration figures.
There won’t be a minister on this morning’s media round, the home secretary and immigration minister will be firmly out of sight.
The reason – net migration for 2022 is expected to be more than 700,000, the highest level on record, and could well be more than double what it was pre-Brexit.
As the Labour leader put it in PMQs: “If people want to see what uncontrolled immigration looks like all they have got to do is wake up tomorrow morning and look at the headlines”.
There are many reasons behind soaring migration, including schemes helping those coming from Hong Kong, Afghanistan and Ukraine; but the problem the prime minister, and home secretary, face is that they have chosen to put migration at the centre of their pitch to the country.
Suella Braverman’s views on immigration are well documented.
Former Downing Street pollster James Johnson says voters have a tendency to view illegal and legal migration together, and there is a “tension” between where the public, and the prime minister, stand on the issue.
He believes, unlike with illegal migration, the government are moving towards a position where “control of legal migration is more important than the reduction of migration”.
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The government is in damage control mode as they prepare for record-breaking net migration figures for 2022.
Number 10 insist they are committed to bringing down net migration.
The other issue is cabinet politics. The chancellor has already suggested the government is open to immigration in key sectors to help with a labour shortage, a view not shared by the home secretary.
Behind the scenes it has been suggested to me that public backlash to high immigration figures would help Suella Braverman make her case for tougher action on legal migration in cabinet.
Craig Mackinlay, the Conservative MP for South Thanet, says the government “has not got a grip of migration”.
He narrowly beat Nigel Farage in the constituency in 2015, and believes the issue will dominate in his area at the next election. He fears constituents will vote against the Tories because “Britain does not feel like it’s working”.
Rishi Sunak may have avoided a fight with the right after saving Suella Braverman, deciding there is no case to investigate her over the speeding fine row, but tomorrow’s figures will ignite a fresh debate about immigration, and questions about whether the government’s rhetoric matches their action.
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Israel has rejected a ceasefire proposal accepted by Hamas and announced it is pushing ahead with an assault on the town of Rafah in southern Gaza.
The Israeli military said it was conducting “targeted strikes” against Hamas in the east of the city, which is the group’s final stronghold in Gaza.
Soon after Israeli tanks entered Rafah and advanced as close as 200m from Rafah’s crossing with Egypt, the Associated Press reported, citing an Egyptian official who said the operation appeared to be limited in scope.
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‘There is not a deal, there is no acceptance’
Hamas had said its chief, Ismail Haniyeh, had informed Qatari and Egyptian mediators the group had accepted their proposal for a ceasefire, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the truce proposal falls short of its demands.
However, it added Israel would send a delegation to meet negotiators today in order to try to reach an agreement.
Qatar’s foreign ministry said its delegation will head to Egypt’s capital Cairo to continue indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Egypt and Qatar have been mediating talks between Hamas and Israel for months.
Thousands of Israelis protested around the country calling for an immediate agreement. In Jerusalem, around a hundred marched towards Mr Netanyahu’s home with a banner reading: “The blood is on your hands.”
An Israeli official described the Hamas announcement as “a ruse intended to make Israel look like the side refusing a deal”.
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Aid groups have warned an attack on Rafah would be disastrous for the 1.4 million Palestinians who have fled there.
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People in Rafah react to IDF evacuation warning
Five killed in airstrikes
Israeli airstrikes killed at least five people in the city last night, including a child and a woman, hospital officials said.
On Sunday Hamas fighters near the Rafah crossing fired mortars into southern Israel and killed four Israeli soldiers.
Israeli leaflets, texts and radio broadcasts ordered Palestinians to evacuate the eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah, warning an attack was imminent and cautioning that anyone who stays “puts themselves and their family members in danger”.
Israel and Hamas urged to ‘go the extra mile’
US President Joe Biden has spoken with Mr Netanyahu and reiterated US concerns about an invasion of Rafah, while UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres urged Israel and Hamas “to go the extra mile needed to make an agreement”, his spokesperson said.
More than 34,600 Palestinians have been killed during the war, around two-thirds of them women and children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza – though the tally does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
The UN has warned the enclave is on the brink of famine.
The war began when Hamas militants stormed across the border into Israel on 7 October, killing around 1,200 people and taking 252 hostages, of whom 133 are believed to still be in captivity in Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.
The term “inauguration” may feel slightly misleading. After all, this is not his first time.
Today’s ceremony will be the fifth occasion Vladimir Putin has been sworn in as Russia’s president, and it marks the start of another six years at the top.
He is already the Kremlin’s longest-serving leader since Joseph Stalin, having been in power for nearly two and a half decades – 20 years as president, four as prime minister.
By the end of this term, only Catherine the Great will be ahead of him – she ruled Russia way back in the 18th century.
So to some, President Putin may feel more like Permanent Putin.
There is a whole generation here that hasn’t lived under anyone else.
The ceremony itself will be a lavish affair, inside the glittering Grand Kremlin Palace, Russia’s “new” leader will swear an oath of loyalty to the people in front of thousands of guests.
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Former Hollywood action hero (and now Russian citizen) Steven Seagal and Germany’s ex-chancellor Gerhard Schroder were among the celebrities and VIPs last time around in 2018.
A lot has changed since then, though. It will be fascinating to see who accepts their invitation.
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Putin 5.0 is no surprise, of course. His victory in March’s election was a given.
The only question was his level of support. Officially, he won 87% of the vote, which was widely condemned by Western governments as being neither free nor fair.
The latest polling, however, points to a similar figure. According to the independent Levada Centre, Putin’s current approval ratings are 85%, not far off his all-time-high.
In part, that is down to a “rally behind the flag effect”, says Levada head Denis Volkov, which Putin has been tapping into since his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But there are other factors too – namely, silencing of the opposition.
“If not Putin, then who?” is a common response, Denis says, when Levada conducts its polls.
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There are times when a person is so gripped with helpless despair that they are lost within themselves. Ahmed Alhashimi, a proud man, looks at the small coffin, wrings his hands, stares at the ground and weeps.
Inside the bright white coffin is the body of his daughter, Sara. Watched by a small crowd of family members, charity workers, well-meaning locals and even council workers, her coffin is lowered into a grave.
Then, for 10 or 15 minutes, a group of mourners work hard to use shovels, and even bare hands, to fill the grave with earth.
The mound is patted down, a wooden marker put in place, with her name engraved upon it, and flowers are placed on the grave along with flowers, photos and – crushingly – a favourite soft toy.
Sara was just seven years oldwhen she died a fortnight ago,crushed on a horrendously overcrowded migrant boat that left shore with more than 100 people on board.
Four other people died that day, too. But it is the image of Sara – young, innocent and vulnerable – that lingers. The death of a child is chilling for anyone. For her family, it is devastating.
They want to remember her, to celebrate and mourn. And so it is that, as we stand next to the morgue where his daughter’s body rests, Ahmed actually wants to talk to me.
He invites us to spend the day with him, travelling to the morgue in Lille where prayers are offered, and then to her burial.
“For all the sadness and sorrow, those final scenes of her life are ones that I will never forget,” he tells me, glassy-eyed.
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“When she was taken out of the boat, those scenes I will never forget for the rest of my life.
“I lost my daughter. Every father who has a daughter, who knows the love you get from a daughter, can imagine the feeling they would suffer if they were to lose their daughter. For me – I am not imagining. I lost her for real.”
The story of cross-Channel migration is a long one, and it is pockmarked with victims. But Sara is unusual in this. Her parents were Iraqis, but they met in Belgium, where Sara was born while her parents lived in Antwerp.
The family spent some time in Finland, but then tried to make their lives in Sweden. Sara went to school there and learned the language.
Other members of her extended family had been given asylum in the country but, for some reason, Ahmed’s immediate family were denied that status.
They feared being deported back to Iraq and so, instead, decided to try to reach the United Kingdom.
“We were in Sweden for seven years and we did not even think of leaving” Ahmed tells me. “Our children would go to school and live their normal lives. But when we were obliged to leave Sweden, when we received the deportation letter, I was left with no alternative.
“I had no choice,” Ahmed says. “I wanted to protect her life, I wanted her to have a future, a life with dignity like other children, but I could not. Everything went against me.
“The Swedish government, and the immigration officials, are the reason behind the tragedy we suffered. We are talking about children, who were born here in Europe. How could you send them to Iraq?”
I wonder whether he has thought of the future, of what would happen to his family now. Does he still hope to cross the Channel?
Ahmed shakes his head. “Of course not, of course not,” he says, gently. “I do not think of that any more, just the thought of that hurts me.
“I lost my child, I lost my daughter. She was like a butterfly, like a bird, she was everything to us, the light in our home, our source of laughter, she was everything. I lost her and I do not want to lose her brothers.”
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He says the boat on which they were travelling was packed, but safe until it was boarded by a rival group of migrants.
“They attacked us,” he tells me. “The water was only a metre deep but there was chaos. That’s when people suffocated.”
His hope now is that the British government will see his pain, feel his loss, and offer hope.
“I call on the British people and the government to help me reach Britain legally. I don’t want assistance. I can work, so can my wife. I just want security and safety for my children. That is all.”
Sara lies now under the shade of a tree in Lille’s cemetery. A girl born in Belgium, to Iraqi parents, who grew up in Sweden and was bound for Britain – now laid to rest in northern France.
So far this year, I have already been to the funerals of two seven-year-old girls who died trying to cross the Channel on a small boat. There will, inevitably, be another tragedy. The only question is when.