A merchant sells crystal ornaments via a live TikTok broadcast.
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TikTok Shop is a rising threat to major e-commerce players such as Shopee and Lazada in Southeast Asia.
It comes as its parent ByteDance pushes the short video app in markets outside the U.S. and India to create alternative revenue streams.
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TikTok Shop is the e-commerce marketplace of short video app TikTok, which is owned by Chinese tech giant ByteDance. The shopping app enables merchants, brands and creators to showcase and sell their goods to users.
In 2022, TikTok Shop expanded to six Southeast Asian countries — Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand.
“TikTok continues to grow rapidly in Southeast Asian countries. We estimate that TikTok’s 2023 [gross merchandise value] will reach 20%~ of Shopee, which we suggest prompted Shopee to defensively increase sales and marketing since April,” said Shawn Yang, analyst at Blue Lotus Research Institute, in a recent report on Sea Group, the owner of Shopee.
TikTok did not want to comment or reveal numbers.
TikTok Shop’s GMV, or total value of goods sold, skyrocketed more than four times to $4.4 billion in Southeast Asia in 2022, according to internal data obtained by tech media outlet The Information. TikTok Shop is reportedly aiming for a GMV target of $12 billion by 2023.
Impulse buying from watching content is an advantage TikTok has.
Sachin Mittal
Head of telecom & internet sector research, DBS Bank
To be clear, TikTok Shop’s current GMV is only a fraction of Shopee and Lazada’s.
Shopee netted $73.5 billion in GMV in 2022 while Lazada’s GMV was $21 billion for the year through September 2021, according to available public figures.
Rising threat
A TikTok spokesperson told CNBC that TikTok Shop “continues to grow rapidly” as both large and small users use the platform to reach new customers. TikTok is “focused on the continued development of TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia,” said the spokesperson.
As of May, the number of TikTok users in Southeast Asia alone is 135 million, according to market research company Insider Intelligence.
Indonesia has the second largest population of TikTok users after the U.S., according to Statista.
“Impulse buying from watching content is an advantage TikTok has,” Sachin Mittal, head of telecom & internet sector research at DBS Bank, told CNBC.
Sea Group is banking on its e-commerce arm Shopee to lift the group’s balance sheet as its gaming arm Garena continues to see revenue decline, given the lack of a strong games pipeline and the continued ban of its flagship game Free Fire in India due to national security threats.
TikTok is spending an incredible amount of money right now on incentives to onboard buyers and sellers, which may not be sustainable.
Jonathan Woo
Senior analyst, Phillip Securities Research
A survey conducted by online retail insights company Cube Asia revealed that consumers spending on TikTok Shop are reducing their spending on Shopee (-51%), Lazada (-45%), Offline (-38%) in Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippines.
Shopee and Lazada declined to comment on competition from TikTok Shop.
Data from web analytics firm Similarweb revealed that Shopee is currently the largest online marketplace in Southeast Asia, holding 30% to 50% traffic share across the region in the last three months, while Lazada holds the second spot with 10% to 30% traffic share.
Scrutiny on TikTok
TikTok Shop’s push comes as the app is being scrutinized in its largest market, the U.S., amid rising geopolitical tensions and tech rivalry between China and the U.S.
TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew’s testimony before Congress in March did not ease lawmakers’ worries about the app’s connections to China or the adequacy of Project Texas, its contingency plan to store U.S. data on American soil.
TikTok has also been banned in India since 2020, alongside other apps said to have Chinese origin. It is not accessible in China, though its Chinese version Douyin is widely used by over 750 million daily active users.
Not sustainable
But TikTok is burning cash to grow, a tested strategy to win market share.
“TikTok is spending an incredible amount of money right now on incentives to onboard buyers and sellers, which may not be sustainable,” said Jonathan Woo, senior analyst at Phillip Securities Research. Woo said he estimates the incentives to be between $600 million and $800 million a year, or 6% to 8% of a $10 billion GMV in 2023.
Data from Apptopia, an app analytics company, showed that TikTok Shop Seller Center app has been attracting an increasing number of downloads in Indonesia over the past one year.
Meanwhile, Shopee charges more than 5% on commission, transaction and service fees.
A CNBC check revealed that four-ply toilet paper from Nomieo was selling on TikTok at 5.80 Singapore dollars for twenty-seven rolls. In comparison, the same goods are selling at around SG$16.80 on Shopee.
Woo noted that TikTok Shop is “still very young” and in the “burn-cash-to-grow phase which may not bode well in today’s market given higher cost of funding.”
TikTok Shop is also “just a platform with no end-to-end capabilities” unlike Shopee and Lazada which have been investing heavily in improving logistics for faster deliveries and returns, increasing overall user experience and trust for sellers and buyers, he said.
Overall, I think TikTok Shop has the potential to be as big as Shopee or Lazada, though this might take quite a number of years.
Jonathan Woo
Senior analyst, Phillip Securities Research
It also has a smaller user base at this point in time with a younger demographic which means less spending ability, said Woo.
“I don’t think there’s a big risk to Shopee from TikTok,” said Mittal. “Shopee can afford to lose some market share, but Lazada cannot.”
Lazada has been trying to catch up with Shopee ever since Shopee overtook the company to become Southeast Asia’s biggest e-commerce platform in 2020.
“Overall, I think TikTok Shop has the potential to be as big as Shopee or Lazada, though this might take quite a number of years,” said Woo, noting the gap between TikTok Shop and Shopee’s GMVs.
Affirm CEO Max Levchin said Friday that while the buy now, pay later firm isn’t seeing credit stress among federally employed borrowers due to the government shutdown, there are signs of a change in shopping habits.
“We are seeing a very subtle loss of interest in shopping just for that group, and a couple of basis points,” Levchin told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.”
At least 670,000 federal employees have been furloughed in the shutdown, and about 730,000 are working without pay, the Bipartisan Policy Center said this week.
Levchin said he’s closely watching employment data for signs of major disruptions, but the company is “capable” of adjusting credit standards when needed.
“Right now, things are just fine,” he said. “We’re not seeing any major disturbances at all.”
The federal funding lapse, which began Oct. 1, is the longest in U.S. history and has halted work across agencies with an impact beyond those who are government employees. The SNAP food benefit program, which serves 42 million Americans, has also been cut off.
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The comments from Levchin followed a fiscal first-quarter earnings report that blew past Wall Street’s estimates. Affirm posted earnings of 23 cents per share on $933 million in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG expected earnings of 11 cents per share on $883 million in sales.
Revenues climbed 34% from a year ago, while gross merchandise volumes jumped 42% to $10.8 billion from $7.6 billion a year ago. That surpassed Wall Street’s $10.38 billion estimate.
The fintech company, which went public in 2021, also lifted its full-year outlook, saying it now expects gross merchandise volume to hit $47.5 billion, versus prior guidance of $46 billion.
Affirm also said it renewed its partnership with Amazon through 2031. The company has also inked deals with the likes of Shopify and Apple in a competitive e-commerce landscape.
Levchin said categories such as ticketing and travel have seen an uptick in interest, and consumer shopping remains strong. Active consumers grew to 24.1 million from 19.5 million a year ago.
“We’re every single day out there preaching the gospel of buy now, pay later being the better way to buy, and consumers are obviously responding,” he said.
Block shares fell 10% Friday after weak third-quarter earnings fell short of Wall Street expectations and showed slowing profit growth for the company’s Square service.
Here is how the company did compared with LSEG estimates:
Earnings per share: 54 cents adjusted vs. 67 cents expected
Revenue: $6.11 billion vs. $6.31 billion expected
Revenue for the quarter was up 2% over last year. The Jack Dorsey-founded firm’s shares have fallen 24% year to date.
Square’s gross payment volume was up 12% year over year, but gross profit growth for the point-of-sale service was only up 9% over a year ago, slowing from last quarter’s 11%.
The company attributed the slower growth to a processing partner change and lower-margin hardware sales.
“Our product and go-to-market strategies are working as we continued to gain profitable market share in our target verticals like food and beverage, with larger sellers, and outside the U.S.,” Chief Financial Officer Amrita Ahuja said on the earnings call.
Cash App’s gross profit growth fared much better at $1.62 billion, increasing 24% over a year ago with 58 million monthly transacting active users. The strength was driven by the service’s Cash App Borrow, Cash App Card, and Buy Now Pay Later.
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Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that they were “encouraged by the pace of credit expansion at Cash App” and are focused on “whether credit expansion will ultimately produce better inflows” per active customer and increase direct deposit accounts.
Ahuja said gross profit was a bright spot for Block, as the company reported $2.66 billion in gross profit growth, up 18% over the prior year. FactSet expected $2.60 billion in gross profit for the quarter.
The company raised its full-year guidance to expect a $10.2 billion gross profit for 2025, increasing from last quarter’s projection of $10.2 billion.
Block reported net income of $461.54 million, or 74 cents per share, which was up significantly over a year ago when the company reported net income of $283.75 million, or 45 cents per share.
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Block year-to-date stock chart.
CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos contributed to this report.
Archer Aviation‘s stock plummeted 12% after a share sale overshadowed a narrower-than-expected third-quarter loss.
The company posted a net loss $129.9 million, narrower than the FactSet estimate of a $178.6 million loss.
However, Archer disclosed a $650 million stock offering for 81.25 million shares to support its $126 million acquisition of Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles as a hub for air taxi operations there. Archer was chosen as the official air taxi provider for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.
The move would dilute the value of the stock for existing shareholders. The weighted average for Archer shares outstanding has grown to about 660.9 million from 397.5 million a year ago.
Interest in electric aircraft makers has picked up in recent months as major players have edged closer to certification. Earlier this week, Beta Technologies went public on the NYSE.
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Archer, like its competitors, is taking major steps toward achieving Federal Aviation Administration certification, a key approval needed to fly commercially.
For the current quarter, Archer said it expects a loss between $110 million and $140 million for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a loss of $125 million at the midpoint. Analysts expected a loss of $119.9 million, according to FactSet.
Earlier this week, Joby Aviation reported a wider-than-expected third-quarter loss. Shares have slumped 20% over the last week, while Archer has lost nearly a third of its value. Both companies have more than doubled in value over the last year.
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Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation year-to-date stock chart.