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Turkey goes to the polls today for a presidential run-off that could see Recep Tayyip Erdogan extend his rule into a third decade.

Neither Mr Erdogan, 69, nor his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu reached the required 50% of the vote in the first round on 14 May.

The race could have profound consequences for Turkey, and the wider world.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan
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Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Despite not reaching the required winning margin, the incumbent’s unexpectedly strong showing in the first round amid a deep cost of living crisis buoyed Mr Erdogan.

A win in parliamentary elections for a coalition of his conservative Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP), the nationalist MHP and others, also offered Mr Erdogan a boost. He says a vote for him is a vote for “stability”.

But when earthquakes struck the country earlier this year, the incumbent president faced widespread criticism for a sluggish response.

His 74-year-old opponent, Mr Kilicdaroglu, is the candidate of a six-party opposition alliance, and leads the Republican People’s Party (CHP) created by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, modern Turkey’s founder.

Challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu
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Challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu

The election will decide who leads Turkey, a country of 85 million people, and how it is governed.

Its currency has plunged to one-tenth of its value against the dollar in a decade.

And the country’s foreign policy could also be shaped by the election. In recent years the NATO member state has irked the West by cultivating ties with Russia and Gulf states.

It’s estimated around eight million eligible voters did not have their say in the first round of the election. Both candidates will hope to win them over in the run-off.

Turkey hosts the most refugees of any nation on Earth, with some five million migrants, more than three million of whom are Syrian, according to Interior Ministry data.

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Turkey’s vote may be the most important in the world this year

Third-place presidential candidate, the hard-line nationalist Sinan Ogan, endorsed Mr Erdogan based on a principle of “non-stop struggle (against) terrorism”, referring to pro-Kurdish groups. He achieved 5.17% of the vote in the first round.

Another nationalist, Umit Ozdag, leader of the anti-immigrant Victory Party (ZP), announced a deal declaring ZP’s support for Mr Kilicdaroglu, after he said he would repatriate immigrants. The ZP won 2.2% of the votes in this month’s parliamentary election.

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Turkish election goes to run-off

Turkey’s Kurds, who amount to about a fifth of the population, could also be crucial in the run-off.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) party endorsed Mr Kilicdaroglu in the first round.

The results of the run-off are expected this evening.

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Fordow: What we know about Iran’s secretive ‘nuclear mountain’ – and how Israel might try to destroy it

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Fordow: What we know about Iran's secretive 'nuclear mountain' - and how Israel might try to destroy it

Deep beneath a mountain, hundreds of centrifuges spin, enriching Iran’s uranium that Israel suspects is destined for a nuclear weapon.

The Fordow plant is protected by tonnes upon tonnes of dirt and rock, far away from prying eyes – and foreign missiles.

But as Israeli warplanes fly unchecked above Tehran, with much of the Islamic Republic’s air defences turned to smoking ruins on the ground, attention has moved to the secretive facility.

Some say only the American B-2 stealth bomber and its massive payload could breach the so-called “nuclear mountain”, while others argue troops on the ground might be able to infiltrate its corridors. Or maybe it is simply impossible, short of a nuclear strike.

Iran has repeatedly denied that it is seeking a nuclear weapon and the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said in June that it has no proof of a “systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon”.

A satellite image shows the Fordo nuclear facility in Iran in this handout image dated June 14, 2025. Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS
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A satellite image shows the Fordow nuclear facility. Pic: Maxar Technologies/Reuters

What is the Fordow facility?

The Fordow enrichment plant is one of three key pieces of nuclear infrastructure in Iran – the others being the Natanz enrichment plant and research facilities in Isfahan.

It is thought to be buried around 80m deep into the side of the mountain. It was previously protected by Iranian and Russian surface-to-air missile systems, but these may have wholly or partially knocked out during Israel’s recent attacks.

Construction is believed to have started in around 2006 and it first became operational in 2009 – the same year Tehran publicly acknowledged its existence.

Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant
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Key sites at Fordow including tunnel entrances

In November 2020, it was believed there were 1,057 centrifuges at Fordow. These are used to separate isotopes and increase the concentration of uranium-235, needed for nuclear fuel and weapons.

In 2023, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – the nuclear watchdog – found uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity – near the 90% needed for a bomb – at Fordow, the only Iranian facility where this has been found.

In June 2024, the Washington Post reported on a major expansion at Fordow, with nearly 1,400 new centrifuges earmarked for the subterranean facility.

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Iran ambassador: ‘This is about self defence’

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Will Israel try to destroy Fordow?

Israel has made no secret of its desire to cripple or remove Iran’s nuclear programme, describing it as an existential threat.

There is much that remains elsewhere in Iran that is capable of producing and using nuclear material.

“But of course the real big piece remains at Fordow still and this has been in the headlines quite a bit,” says Dr Alexander Bollfrass, an expert on nuclear weapons from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) thinktank.

There is also the chance that an increased focus on diplomacy brings the war to an end before the IDF can make a run at Fordow.

FILE - This photo released Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in Natanz uranium enrichment facility near Natanz, Iran. A new underground facility at the Natanz enrichment site may put centrifuges beyond the range of a massive so-called ...bunker buster... bomb earlier developed by the U.S. military, according experts and satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press in May 2023. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
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Centrifuge machines at Natanz – similar to ones held at Fordow. Pic: AP

Could bunker buster bombs be used?

There has been a lot of talk about bunker buster bombs. These are munitions that explode twice – once to breach the ground surface and again once the bomb has burrowed down to a certain depth.

The Israelis used 60 to 80 of them in the strike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September last year, according to Martin “Sammy” Sampson, a former air marshal and executive director at the IISS.

But Nasrallah was only 10-15m underground, Mr Sampson said, while Fordow is believed to be 80m beneath the surface.

“An awful lot of planes would be in the same place for an awful long time” to drop enough bombs to have a chance of getting to the buried facility, he added.

A GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri. in 2023. File pic: US Air Force via AP
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A GBU-57 bunker buster bomb seen in 2023. File pic: US Air Force/AP

There is also the possibility that the US, which operates the much more powerful GBU-57 bomb, could assist with any operation at Fordow.

“My sense is that it would still take multiple strikes,” Mr Sampson said, putting it in “more and more unknown territory”.

“It would be pretty disastrous… if you put 400 planes over the top of Fordow, or you put the might of the US over Fordow, and it survived.”

Israel’s ‘contingencies’ for dealing with Fordow

Israel has suggested that it could destroy or cripple Fordow without using bombs dropped from the air.

Speaking to Sky’s Yalda Hakim earlier this week, former Mossad director of intelligence Zohar Palti said it was “much easier for the Americans to do it”, possibly referring to the GBU-57.

“But as you see, we know how to run things alone,” he added. “And if we need to do some other stuff alone, we will do it.”

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Sky’s Yalda Hakim speaks to Zohar Palti

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Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, said last weekend that Israel has “a number of contingencies… which will enable us to deal with Fordow”.

“Not everything is a matter of, you know, taking to the skies and bombing from afar,” he told ABC News.

There has been talk of using special forces to raid the facility on the ground, but that has its downsides as well.

“This would be an incredibly high risk mission if you were to do something on the ground,” said Mr Sampson.

There is also the possibility Israel could replicate what happened at the Natanz enrichment plant, where the IAEA said 15,000 centrifuges were likely destroyed in the IDF bombardment of Iran.

This was possibly due to an Israeli airstrike disrupting the power supply to the centrifuges, rather than actual physical damage to the centrifuge hall, according to the nuclear watchdog.

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Regime change in Iran is ‘unacceptable’, says the Kremlin

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Regime change in Iran is 'unacceptable', says the Kremlin

Regime change in Iran is “unacceptable” and the assassination of the country’s supreme leader would “open the Pandora’s box”, the Kremlin has said.

In a rare interview with a foreign media organisation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Sky News that Russia would react “very negatively” if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed.

The comments came as US President Donald Trump said he will decide within two weeks whether America will join Israel’s military campaign against Tehran, after earlier speculating on social media about killing the Iranian leader.

Dmitry Peskov
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Dmitry Peskov speaks to Sky News

“The situation is extremely tense and is dangerous not only for the region but globally,” Mr Peskov said in an interview at the Constantine Palace in Saint Petersburg.

“An enlargement of the composition of the participants of the conflict is potentially even more dangerous.

“It will lead only to another circle of confrontation and escalation of tension in the region.”

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, July 19, 2022. AP
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Putin and Khamenei meeting in Tehran in 2022. Pic: AP

They are the Kremlin’s strongest comments yet regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, which has stoked fears in Moscow that it could be on the verge of losing its closest ally in the Middle East.

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Russia has deepened its ties with Iran since invading Ukraine, and the two countries signed a strategic partnership in January.

“[Regime change in Iran] is unimaginable. It should be unacceptable, even talking about that should be unacceptable for everyone,” Mr Peskov said, in a thinly veiled reference to Washington.

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How will Russia react to US joining Israel?

But Mr Peskov refused to be drawn on what action Russia would take if Khamenei was killed, saying instead it would trigger action “from inside Iran”.

“It would lead to the birth of extremist moods inside Iran and those who are speaking about [killing Khamenei], they should keep it in mind. They will open the Pandora’s box.”

Vladimir Putin’s offers to mediate an end to the conflict have so far been rejected by Mr Trump, who said on Wednesday that he told the Russian president to “mediate your own [conflict]”, in reference to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Mr Peskov denied the American president’s words were insulting, adding: “Everyone has a different language.

“President Trump has his own unique way of speaking and his unique language. We are quite tolerant and expect everyone to be tolerant of us.”

President Donald Trump meets with members of the Juventus soccer club in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, June 18, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Trump’s attempts to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia have so far not been fruitful. Pic: AP

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The Trump administration’s own mediation efforts to end the war in Ukraine have failed to yield any major breakthroughs, despite two rounds of direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv.

Moscow has stepped up its aerial bombardment of Ukraine in recent weeks and continues to reject Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s calls for a 30-day ceasefire.

“Now we have a strategic advantage. Why should we lose it? We are not going to lose it. We are going further. We’re advancing and we’ll continue to advance,” Mr Peskov said.

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Russia has previously said it would only commit to a ceasefire if Kyiv stops receiving foreign military support, fearing that a pause in the fighting would offer Ukraine a chance to rearm and regroup its forces.

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Russia ‘relentlessly terrorises’ Kyiv, says Zelenskyy

Asked if Moscow could commit to not using a ceasefire in the same way, Mr Peskov said: “A ceasefire is a ceasefire, and you stop.

“But America is not saying that ‘we’ll quit any supplies’. Britain is not saying that as well. France is not saying that as well. This is the problem.”

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China says British warship sailed through Taiwan Strait to ’cause trouble’

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China says British warship sailed through Taiwan Strait to 'cause trouble'

China has criticised a British warship’s passage through the Taiwan Strait as a deliberate move to “cause trouble”.

The Royal Navy said its patrol vessel HMS Spey was conducting a routine navigation through the contested waterway on Wednesday as part of a long-planned deployment in compliance with international law.

In response, the Eastern Theatre Command of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said the exercise was “public hyping”, adding that its forces followed and monitored the ship.

“The British side’s remarks distort legal principles and mislead the public; its actions deliberately cause trouble and disrupt things, undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” it said in a statement on Friday.

“Troops in the theatre are on high alert at all times and will resolutely counter all threats and provocations.”

The last time a British warship sailed through the strait was in 2021, when HMS Richmond was deployed in the East China Sea en route to Vietnam.

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From 2024: Why is South China sea so disputed?

The strait is contested between Taiwan and China, which split in 1949.

Today, China views Taiwan as a breakaway province – with which it promises to one day reunify, and has not ruled out the use of force to do so – and regards the waterway as its own territory.

Taiwan, the US, and other Western powers regard the strait as international waters.

US navy ships sail through the strait around once every two months, sometimes accompanied by those of allied nations.

Responding to HMS Spey’s exercise, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said it “welcomes and affirms the British side once again taking concrete actions to defend the freedom of navigation in the Taiwan Strait”.

China has also carried out several military drills across the waterway, with exercises in October involving its army, navy and rocket forces. Beijing called it a “stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces” at the time.

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Father, 27, shot dead in ‘mistaken identity’

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It comes as Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te on Thursday ordered defence and security units to step up their monitoring and intelligence efforts in response to China’s military activities.

Taiwan’s defence ministry also reported another spike in Chinese movements close to the island over the previous 24 hours, involving 50 aircraft, concentrated in the strait and the top part of the South China Sea.

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