The Memo: Trump and his primary rivals get set for fight over Ukraine

Published

2 years ago

May 29, 2023

admin

The war in Ukraine is set to become one of the starkest dividing lines in the GOP presidential primary.

Republicans who are largely united on a host of other issues — crime, immigration, the economy and the battle against “wokeness” — have deep tensions over a conflict that has now raged for more than 15 months and consumed many billions of dollars in U.S. aid.

Former President Trump is the front-line contender most skeptical about continuing the vigorous support for Ukraine at its current pitch.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is not far behind — though he has displayed some shaky footing on the topic.

Striking a much sharper contrast, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley insists it is vital for the U.S. that Ukraine should prevail. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is expected to enter the race in the coming weeks, basically shares that view.

The division sets up a fascinating clash as the candidates seek to appeal to a Republican electorate that is itself disunited.

The traditional GOP position that the U.S. needs to assert itself overseas for its own protection still has many adherents. But lots of voters have grown skeptical of foreign entanglements in the roughly two decades since the U.S. launched its invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Voter concerns over government spending — and the sense that taxpayer dollars would be better spent at home — also feed into the debate.

The U.S. has provided almost $40 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022. It has given tens of billions more in financial and humanitarian assistance.

During his CNN town hall event earlier this month, Trump was asked by moderator Kaitlan Collins whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war.

“I don’t think in terms of winning and losing. I think in terms of getting it settled so we stop killing all these people,” Trump responded.

Trump also insisted that, were he to be reelected, he would have the war “settled in one day.”

The former president was vague as to how this cessation of hostilities might be accomplished. But in a March radio interview with Sean Hannity, Trump appeared to envision a deal where Russian would take over some amount of Ukrainian territory.

“I could’ve made a deal to take over something. There are certain areas that are Russian-speaking areas, frankly,” he told Hannity.

Haley espouses a far different view.

“The issue with Russia and Ukraine is so much bigger than Ukraine,” she said at a recent campaign event in Ankeny, Iowa. “It’s not a fight for Ukraine. It’s a fight for freedom. And it’s one that we have to win.”

While Haley made clear she did not support putting U.S. troops on the ground, she underlined what she sees as the high stakes in the conflict.

“A win for Russia is a win for China,” she contended.

DeSantis, who launched his campaign last Wednesday, plainly is closer to Trump’s view.

But the situation in his case is muddled; he was widely perceived to have erred in March, when he described the war as a mere “territorial dispute” in which no U.S. “vital national interests” were at stake.

Amid a backlash, DeSantis complained that his earlier statement had been “mischaracterized.” That comment came in an interview with Piers Morgan during which DeSantis also tagged Putin as a “war criminal” who had to be “held accountable.”

Electorally, it’s not obvious which is the winning position in the Republican primary.

GOP voters are markedly more skeptical of aid to Ukraine than Democrats.

In an Economist/YouGov poll last week, 47 percent of Democrats wanted the U.S. to increase its military aid to Ukraine, whereas only 25 percent of Republicans agreed. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans wanted to decrease aid, in contrast to only 14 percent of Democrats.

Still, the Economist poll also included an option to maintain aid at its current levels — a position supported by 22 percent of Republicans and 25 percent of Democrats.

One key question is whether the erosion of GOP voters’ support for Ukraine picks up pace.

A Pew Research Center poll in January found 40 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believed the U.S. was providing “too much” support for Ukraine. Ten months previously, shortly after the Russia invasion, only 9 percent held that view.

Fred Fleitz, who was chief of staff of the National Security Council during the Trump presidency, told this column that, while the American people were sympathetic to Ukraine’s plight, “Ukraine is not a strategic U.S. interest, and therefore America’s support to Ukraine has to be limited and can’t be open-ended.”

Fleitz, who is now the vice chair for national security at the America First Policy Institute, added: “We have to make some difficult decisions and find a way to do the right thing for our country first. … My immediate concern is that we are not getting to a solution. We are supporting what will become a long-term war of attrition that is going to end badly for the Ukrainians.”

But Kurt Volker, who was the U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations from 2017-19, took a very different view.

He contended that “traditional foreign policy, national-security Republicans” such as Haley, Pence and Capitol Hill leaders including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), held the correct view both substantively and politically.

“Trump will perhaps describe them as chumps who just want the U.S. to do everything,” Volker said. “But the reality is that most Republicans want to see a strong United States, want to see us have good relationships with our allies and want us to be shaping, as [Condoleezza Rice] used to say, ‘a stronger and safer world.’” Business groups endorse debt limit deal as McCarthy scrambles for votes Companies and individuals without AI expertise will be left behind: tech CEO

Any political calculations are further jumbled because no one knows where the war — or American public opinion about it — will stand early next year, when the first GOP primary voters cast their ballots.

But Ukraine is one topic where those voters will at least have a clear choice before them.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

US

Trump trade war expands globally as 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel take effect

Published

39 mins ago

March 12, 2025

admin

Trump trade war expands globally as 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel take effect

Donald Trump’s trade war has expanded to cover the world, with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports to the US in effect from today.

The duties were announced in mid-February as stock market investors cheered President Trump‘s ‘America first’ agenda which saw only Mexico, Canada and China come under initial pressure.

While two rounds of tariffs on China have been enacted, 25% duties on some Canadian and most Mexican cross-border trade have been withdrawn until 2 April at the earliest.

The tariffs beginning today are designed to protect US manufacturing and bolster jobs by making foreign-made products less attractive.

They threaten to make the cost of things like cars to soft drink cans – and therefore some drinks – more expensive.

Canada is the biggest exporter of both steel and aluminium to America. However, the White House on Tuesday rowed back on a threat to double the country’s tariff to 50%.

The EU is to retaliate with €26bn of counter tariffs on US goods starting from 1 April, the European Commission said on Wednesday morning.

Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said she remained open to “meaningful dialogue” with the US.

During Mr Trump’s first term, the bloc countered with charges on products such as bourbon and jeans.

The American tariffs are also a threat to UK steel exports – worth north of £350m annually – with the bulk of that coming from stainless steel.

The business secretary Jonathan Reynolds confirmed on Wednesday morning that while he was disappointed, there would be no immediate retaliation by the UK government as negotiations continue over a wider trade deal with the US.

“I will continue to engage closely and productively with the US to press the case for UK business interests,” he said.

Any fall in demand among US customers will leave producers scrambling for new markets, though some could be directed to domestic projects within the UK.

That steel could prove attractive as China, the world’s largest producer of steel, has threatened to limit its exports in response to the Trump tariffs.

President Trump is under growing pressure to row back, particularly in his planned battle with nearest neighbours Mexico and Canada.

Markets have turned on the tariff regime, with jitters about the effects of higher import prices souring the US economy first being seen through the currency and bond markets.

The dollar has lost around five cents against both the pound and a resurgent euro alone in the past few weeks.

Stock markets have joined in, with the combined market value of the broad S&P 500’s constituent companies down by more than $4trn on the peak seen just last month.

The big fear is that the protectionism will push the world’s largest economy into recession – a scenario Mr Trump did not deny was possible during a weekend interview.

👉 Follow Trump 100 on your podcast app 👈

US firms, already also grappling the complexities associated with an expanding tariff regime, are also letting it be known that they expect damage to their own businesses.

Delta Airlines lowered its first quarter growth forecast on the back of the turmoil this week while US firms are increasingly facing product boycotts.

Travel bodies have also reported a big drop in the number of Canadians crossing the US border, with road trips down by almost a quarter last month compared to February 2023 according to Statistics Canada.

US

Zelenskyy ready to accept ceasefire deal – as US to resume intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine

Published

39 mins ago

March 12, 2025

admin

Zelenskyy ready to accept ceasefire deal - as US to resume intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to accept a ceasefire deal – as the US says it has immediately resumed intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine.

In a post on Telegram after US and Ukrainian officials met in Saudi Arabia, Mr Zelenskyy said “the American side understands our arguments” and “accepts our proposals” – and that Kyiv “accepts” the US proposal of a full 30-day ceasefire with Russia.

Ukraine war latest: Ball now in Russia’s court, US says

“I want to thank President Trump for the constructiveness of the conversation between our teams,” he said.

“Today, in the conversation, the American side proposed to take the first step immediately and try to establish a full ceasefire for 30 days, not only concerning rockets, drones, and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line.

“Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, and we are ready to take this step.”

‘Ukraine is ready for peace’

The Ukrainian president then said the US “must convince Russia to do this” and that “if the Russians agree – that’s when the silence will work”.

He added: “An important element of today’s conversation is America’s readiness to restore defensive assistance to Ukraine, as well as intelligence support.

“Ukraine is ready for peace. Russia must show whether it is ready to stop the war or continue it.

“The time has come for the full truth. I thank everyone who helps Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, in a joint statement with Kyiv following nine-hour-long talks in Jeddah, the US State Department said it will immediately lift the pause on intelligence-sharing and military aid.

A Ukrainian source told Sky News earlier this month that the US had stopped sharing all intelligence with Kyiv.

‘Ball is now in Russia’s court’

Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, also told reporters that “the ball is now in Russia’s court” after meeting with the Ukrainian delegation.

After the positive talks, Mr Rubio said “we’re going to take the offer” to Russia, adding: “We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table, Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking, and now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no.

“I hope they’re going to say yes, and if they do then I think we made great progress.”

He then said that while no deadline has been set, he hopes a deal can be reached “as soon as possible” and that “this is serious stuff, this is not Mean Girls, this is not some episode of some television show”.

“The number one goodwill gesture we could see from the Russians is to see the Ukrainian offer and reciprocate it with a yes,” Mr Rubio added.

National security adviser Mike Waltz also added it is “very clear” that Kyiv shares Donald Trump’s vision for peace and that “they share his determination to end the fighting”.

👉 Follow Trump 100 on your podcast app 👈

Over in the US, Mr Trump said that officials will meet with Russia either today or tomorrow and confirmed he would invite Mr Zelenskyy back to the White House.

“We want to get the Ukraine war over with,” the US president said, before saying he hopes to have a total ceasefire in the coming days.

He also told reporters he thinks he will talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week – but warned “it takes two to tango”.

Last month, Mr Trump accused Mr Zelenskyy of “gambling with World War Three” in an Oval Office meeting.

US vice president JD Vance told the Ukrainian president “you should be thanking” Mr Trump “for trying to bring an end to this conflict,” sparking a tense 10-minute back-and-forth.

A press conference with the two leaders and the signing of an agreement was then cancelled.

US

What’s in the US-proposed Russia and Ukraine ceasefire deal?

Published

39 mins ago

March 12, 2025

admin

What's in the US-proposed Russia and Ukraine ceasefire deal?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is ready to agree to a ceasefire with Russia after successful talks with the US today.

The Ukrainian president said on Telegram that “we are ready to take this step” and said the US “must convince Russia to do this”.

Ukraine war latest: Trump warns Putin ‘it takes two to tango’

Following a meeting with Kyiv officials in Saudi Arabia, US secretary of state Marco Rubio told reporters “the ball is now in Russia’s court” and the next step is for Moscow to agree to terms.

US President Donald Trump said “we want to get the Ukraine war over with” and hopes to have a total ceasefire in the coming days.

But what has been agreed by the US and Ukraine? Here’s what we know so far…

Straight after the nine-hour talks in Jeddah, the US State Department said Washington would immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine.

Mr Zelenskyy confirmed in his post that an “important element of today’s conversation is America’s readiness to restore defensive assistance to Ukraine, as well as intelligence support”.

As part of their plan, the US said both sides should agree to an immediate 30-day ceasefire which could then be mutually extended.

A joint statement from the US and Ukraine added that Washington “will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace”.

The Ukrainian president added that the proposal was “not only concerning rockets, drones, and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line” – although the official statement does not mention this.

The statement also makes no mention of territory – despite Ukraine previously calling for Russia to return occupied lands, and the US saying Kyiv might have to concede territory – or the foreign deployment of soldiers in Ukraine for peacekeeping.

The joint statement does say officials discussed aid efforts as part of the peace process, including “the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children”.

Ukraine also reiterated that European partners would be involved in the peace process, and both countries agreed a deal on Kyiv’s minerals and rare earths should “conclude as soon as possible”.

What has Ukraine said?

Mr Zelenskyy said Ukraine agrees to the terms, adding that “the American side understands our arguments” and “accepts our proposals”.

He then said he wanted “to thank President Trump for the constructiveness of the conversation between our teams,” before adding: “Ukraine is ready for peace.

“Russia must show whether it is ready to stop the war or continue it. The time has come for the full truth.”

Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha – who was in Jeddah for the talks – called the meeting a step forward “both on the path to peace and in developing the strategic Ukraine-US partnership” on social media.

And speaking to Sky News’ Mark Austin, Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko added that “we will have to wait and see what comes of it” but that “clearly it’s good news”.

“On first glance it’s amazing,” she said. “If we can get the Russians to agree to a ceasefire for 30 days, then our soldiers on the frontline will have a break…”

However, she said: “In previous years [Russia has] shown an absolute inability to understand what a ceasefire is and to stick to the basic rules of a ceasefire – which means not firing any weapons.”

What has the US said?

Mr Rubio said the next step is “going to take the offer” to Russia, adding: “We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table, Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking, and now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no.

“I hope they’re going to say yes, and if they do then I think we made great progress.”

Mr Trump echoed this outside the White House, saying Ukraine has agreed to the “total ceasefire” and that “hopefully Russia will agree to it”.

He added that he will speak to Vladimir Putin in the coming days, warning the Russian president that “it takes two to tango”.

How has Russia reacted?

So far, there’s been no official reaction to the proposal other than to acknowledge Mr Trump’s comments about talks within the next week.

But ahead of the breakthrough talks in Jeddah, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Mr Zelenskyy does not want peace.

According to state news agency TASS, Mr Lavrov added: “Mr Zelenskyy publicly declares that he does not want any ceasefire unless the Americans provide him with assurances that they will launch a nuclear strike on Russia if necessary.

“He frames the issue in much the same manner. For now, [a peace talk] is not serious.”

Mr Zelenskyy has not called for the US to strike Russia with nuclear weapons, but did say last month that Ukraine should be given them if talks on joining NATO are protracted for years.