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The man who revels in his image as Turkey’s strongman took an early lead almost as soon as polls closed in the second round of voting for president.

Celebrations began long before the official declaration. But in truth, the dye was cast some time ago, before the election.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan‘s demeanour even before campaigning began for the unprecedented run-off has been one of a leader comfortably confident of securing his third decade in power in a country that holds a uniquely significant geographical position in the world.

Turkey election latest:
Erdogan thanks crowds as election officials declare him winner

From the time he voted in the first round to extend his time as president, he appeared supremely relaxed about his chances of winning.

This was despite the polls showing him trailing behind his challenger, the leader of a six-party alliance called Kemal Kilicdoroglu.

Mr Erdogan’s re-election comes in the teeth of a spiralling economy, rampant inflation and in the wake of a horrific natural disaster clouded by accusations his government was slow to respond.

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“We are so happy,” one of his fans told us outside his Istanbul home. “Our economy is good….OK, it’s been bad for two years but we trust him and he will do his best.”

“Bye bye Kemal,” others told us. “Erdogan is our strong leader,” was the mantra repeated to us over and over again.

The people gathered waving flags, setting off fireworks and singing and dancing down the roads leading to his home in the Uskudar district of the city were predominantly religious conservatives, many of them women, mostly wearing hijabs and conservative Muslim clothing.

“We love Erdogan,” they told us.

Within an hour or so of polls closing, with just 55% of votes counted, the incumbent had already built a hefty lead, according to the state broadcaster TRT.

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Sky’s Alex Crawford reports from Istanbul as Turkey reacts to Erdogan claiming victory

That very early lead never seemed likely to change.

Later counting narrowed the gap somewhat but the sitting president still managed to secure more than half of the votes cast with his rival trailing roughly four points behind. (Latest official figures at the time of writing show 52.1% to Mr Erdogan and 47.8% for Mr Kilicdaroglu.)

This was the closest President Erdogan had come to being unseated was how the opposition and most Western media framed the outcome of the first round.

But in reality, the odds were always heavily stacked against any electoral upset or success by his rival.

Mr Erdogan has spent his two decades at the helm consolidating his power – cracking down on dissent, intimidating and jailing opposition politicians and journalists and ensuring the Turkish media is mostly state-controlled and compliant.

A boy holding a Turkish flag after the election
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A boy holding a Turkish flag after the election

International observers in the country who were monitoring the initial vote criticised Mr Erdogan’s use of state resources and his control of the media to unduly influence the electorate.

Once the dust has settled, they’re likely to voice the same concerns this time around.

In his concession speech, Mr Kilicdoruglu called it the “most unjust election campaign ever” referring to the heavily-biased coverage of the president’s campaign in most Turkish outlets rather than his.

Challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu
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Erdogan’s challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu

When we managed to get close enough to question the sitting leader about whether he’d accept the outcome of the vote whatever the result (in the first round), we were sharply rebuked by him for questioning his approach and his ‘history’ over the past 20 years.

“That is a very bad question,” he told me.

“You don’t know me and how I’ve been over the past 20 years,” he scolded me as his security detail and political team rushed to move him on quickly.

Alex Crawford speaks to people celebrating Erdogan's win in Turkey
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Alex Crawford speaks to people celebrating Erdogan’s win in Turkey

His critics believe his next five years in office are likely to see him take the country further down the autocratic path he embarked on several years ago.

It’s a path made smoother after his AK Party gained 266 seats in the parliamentary elections, resulting in a commanding total of 321 including his coalition partners.

Read more:
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Who is Turkey’s president?

Who is Kemal Kilicdaroglu – the man who wanted to end Erdogan’s reign?

If his campaigning over the past two weeks and his repeated criticism of how Western journalists have covered the elections are anything to go by, President Erdogan is likely to ratchet up his strained relationship with the foreign media and those nations critical of his leadership.

At one rally he told his supporters: “We are competing against those trying to disrupt the century of Turkey.

“Magazines have covers reading Erdogan must go. It’s none of your business. The West cannot decide it. It is up to my nation.”

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President Erdogan speaking to crowds before victory was declared

Mr Erdogan’s influence during his years in power on international affairs like the Russia-Ukraine war and the European migration crisis has been crucial. And he has used his position skilfully.

A largely suspicious West has seen him manoeuvre himself into a pivotal global spot – able to talk to the leaders of both Russia and Ukraine as well as America and Iran – and building essential bridges with key economic powers like Saudi Arabia, as well as sending peacekeeping troops to countries like Somalia and Libya.

He has visited African countries more times than any other non-African leader during his time in office.

Analysis:
The West will be disappointed with Erdogan’s electoral success

As a member of NATO, he’s shown he can wield considerable clout for political gain as he’s demonstrated recently with the delayed but final acceptance of Finland into the club.

Turkey’s acquiescence only came after Finland agreed to take a harder line against Kurdish dissidents and the Kurdish PKK party.

Now on his home turf, he has once again proved the critics wrong and outmanoeuvred his toughest challengers and his grip on power seems unassailable.

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‘Have the meeting now!’: Trump says Ukraine should ‘immediately’ agree to direct talks with Russia

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'Have the meeting now!': Trump says Ukraine should 'immediately' agree to direct talks with Russia

US President Donald Trump has demanded that Ukraine should “immediately” agree to direct talks with Russia in a bid to end the war.

It comes after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his team were “ready to meet” Russian representatives following Vladimir Putin suggestion of peace talks, subject to an unconditional ceasefire starting on Monday.

Russia‘s president put forward the proposal for talks in Istanbul on Thursday after European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer threatened him with fresh sanctions if Russia failed to comply with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday.

Analysis:
Why calls for Ukraine talks are likely a delaying tactic from Putin

However, in a post on his Truth Social platform on Sunday, Mr Trump said he was “starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin”.

He urged them to accept the meeting invitation “immediately”, adding “have the meeting now”.

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Putin’s call for peace talks genuine?

Mr Trump wrote: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the bloodbath.

“Ukraine should agree to this, immediately. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the US will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly.

“I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America.

“Have the meeting now!”

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Kremlin: ‘We don’t share Starmer’s view’

Shortly after Mr Trump’s post, Mr Zelenskyy posted on X saying: “We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy.

“There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses.”

When Mr Putin first suggested the talks, Mr Trump hailed it “a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine” and said he would “work with both sides to make sure it happens”.

Read more from Sky News:
Pope Leo calls for Ukraine peace
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said he “fully supported” Mr Putin’s proposal and was ready to host the talks, after the two leaders spoke over the phone on Sunday.

But security and defence analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News presenter Matt Barbet there is a “long way between now and Thursday” and a “fair bit of brinkmanship” going on.

He said even if the talks do go ahead, “the chances are they’ll extend over a long period and there won’t be a ceasefire as a result of them, and the Russians will keep playing this out”.

European leaders hold call with Ukraine. Pic: Number 10
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European leaders hold call with Mr Trump. Pic: Number 10

Mr Putin’s counteroffer of talks came after Sir Keir, Mr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, recently elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met in Kyiv.

The leaders said they had secured Mr Trump’s backing after briefing him on the progress made on the so-called “coalition of the willing” plans in a 20-minute phone call.

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Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes

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Terror group supporters posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google from site targeted in Indian airstrikes

Social media accounts expressing support for a Pakistan-based terror group linked to al Qaeda appear to have posted recent videos from a Pakistan mosque targeted by Indian airstrikes.

Sky News has found videos posted on TikTok, YouTube and Google that appear to be filmed at the Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke. The captions and usernames contain expressions of support for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and a group called ‘313’.

Sky News has found and geolocated multiple videos that appear to be filmed in the area where the captions include either or both ‘313’ and LeT.

Some of the videos show men in the streets with guns. Another post captioned a video of children doing martial arts training inside the targeted mosque, “we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers”.

The caption of the video reads "we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers". It uses the hashtag '313' and uses the word 'mujahid' which means 'who does jihad'.
Image:
The caption of the video reads ‘we are little soldiers, and we fight the non-believers’. It uses the hashtag ‘313’.

The caption uses the hashtag #جہاد313, which translates to ‘313’ jihad.

‘313’ appears to refer to the 313 Brigade, a proscribed terror organisation in Pakistan.

In a TikTok video posted to the Google page for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, a man can be seen walking along the street with a gun.

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The account that posted that video wrote in their description, “Lashkar Taiba, Mujahid Force, ‘313’ and Markaz Taiba Muridke”, self-proclaiming their support for the groups.

This screenshot from a Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and claims to be from Muridke.
Image:
This screenshot from the Google user labels Lashkar-e-Taiba and ‘313’ and includes the location name Muridke

India’s retaliatory strikes on Pakistani-adminstered Kashmir and Pakistan on 7 May came after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month.

Gunmen opened fire on tourists, killing 26 people and injuring dozens in a popular holiday spot near Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April.

LeT were accused by India of involvement in the Pahalgam attack through their proxy the Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack.

LeT, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN Security Council and the UK, focuses on fighting Indian control in Kashmir and is based in the Punjab region of Pakistan.

Pakistan denies allegations of terror camps operating in the country. This region has been in the control of the Punjabi government since 2010. The Punjab government condemned the Indian strikes, and declared a state of emergency across Punjab.

Muskan Sangwan, senior intelligence analyst at TRAC, a terrorism research and analysis consortium, told Sky News: “Brigade 313 is al Qaeda in Pakistan. It’s an umbrella organisation for members of several groups like Taliban, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Haqqat ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Jaish-e Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Jundullah.”

Ms Sangwan explained that ‘313’ refers to the number of companions said to have fought with the Prophet Mohammed in the Battle of Badr.

TRAC have seen a recent uptick in TikTok videos and other social media posts that refer to ‘313’.

Many of the accounts are linked to each other.

Ms Sangwan said: “They [the TikTok users] mostly use ‘313’ as a hashtag… trying to push that hashtag to as many people it can reach on social media.”

Sky News sought to verify the location by comparing before and after videos from the strike location, and using the video released by the Indian army conducting the strike.

One video showing damage at the strike location was posted by a user with 313 in their TikTok username.

The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction of the mosque has 313 in their caption.
Image:
The TikTok account that posted video footage of the destruction in Muridke has 313 in the username

Below is satellite imagery that shows the destruction of the site.

Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on May 7th. Credit: Maxar.
Image:
Satellite imagery shows Markaz Taiba Mosque after the strike on 7 May. Credit: Maxar

In one TikTok, the video is captioned “bring your arms and ammunition and go to war”. The text on the screen of the TikTok is ‘313’ and he is carrying a gun.

The group are comfortable with having an online presence. On the Google tag for Markaz Taiba Mosque in Muridke, men pose for a group photo. Almost all the people in the photo have used ‘313’ on TikTok.

Ms Sangwan explained: “With these people from Muridke, pushing this propaganda on social media would generate a lot of significance in terms of recruitment and in terms of gaining support from local people and from other people.”

Sky News’ Asia correspondent Cordelia Lynch has reported on the ground in Muridke.

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Anger in Pakistan after India strikes

India says it struck Markaz Taiba, a site in Muridke about 15 miles (25km) from the border, which has long been claimed to be a terrorist training site associated with LeT.

MEMRI, a US-based research group that monitors terrorist threats, told Sky News: “It has been known for decades that Lashkar-e-Taiba has its headquarters in Muridke.”

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Sky News contacted the Pakistan Ministry of Defence for comment. Khawaja Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, told Sky News: “This appears to be a random video with background music added later – consistent with how TikTok trends often function. If this is to be considered credible evidence, we could produce millions of similar clips ourselves.”

Mr Asif also said that any suggestion that the mosque was used as a base by terrorists was a “completely false, social media made up hoax”.

On 7 May, after the strikes in Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent branch of al Qaeda issued a statement condemning India’s actions and encouraging its supporters to wage jihad against India.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Ukraine ‘ready to meet’ Russia after Putin call for peace talks on Thursday, says Zelenskyy

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Ukraine 'ready to meet' Russia after Putin call for peace talks on Thursday, says Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said his country is “ready to meet” Russian representatives after Vladimir Putin suggested peace talks in Istanbul from Thursday.

Russia‘s president put forward the proposal as European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer threatened him with fresh sanctions if Russia failed to comply with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday.

Reacting to Mr Putin’s suggestion, US President Donald Trump said it was “a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine” and he would “work with both sides to make sure it happens”.

Mr Zelenskyy has also welcomed the proposal, but reiterated his call for a ceasefire.

Split of Putin and Zelenskyy.

He said: “It is a positive sign that the Russians have finally begun to consider ending the war. The entire world has been waiting for this for a very long time. And the very first step in truly ending any war is a ceasefire.

“There is no point in continuing the killing even for a single day. We expect Russia to confirm a ceasefire – full, lasting, and reliable – starting tomorrow, May 12th, and Ukraine is ready to meet.”

On Saturday, the prime minister met the Ukrainian president alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv.

More on Russia

Announcing the 30-day ceasefire proposal, the leaders said they had secured the backing of Mr Trump after briefing him on the progress made on the so-called “coalition of the willing” plans in a 20-minute phone call.

What Trump does next is crucial


Dominic Waghorn - Diplomatic editor

Dominic Waghorn

International affairs editor

@DominicWaghorn

Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing for time and may have been caught on the hop by European leaders, backed by US President Donald Trump, demanding a 30-day ceasefire during their visit to Kyiv yesterday.

Russia’s proposal of talks in Istanbul on Thursday appears hurriedly conceived, announced as it was in the early hours of the morning by Putin.

There is an added symbolism to his suggestion of Istanbul as a venue. Russia has long blamed Ukraine for walking away from peace talks in the same city in 2022.

The key thing is that diplomatic movement of sorts is happening.

Ukraine and its European colleagues want to capitalise on Trump’s renewed enthusiasm for a ceasefire and his potential scepticism of how ready Putin actually is to make peace.

The Europeans will hope this isn’t drawn into a protracted period of negotiations, or simply talking about the idea of negotiations.

What President Trump does next will be crucial.

Speaking at the Kremlin in the early hours of Sunday, Mr Putin did not directly address the proposal but instead offered to restart peace talks Russia and Ukraine held in 2022.

“We propose the Kyiv authorities resume the negotiations they interrupted at the end of 2022… to resume direct negotiations… without any preconditions… to begin without delay next Thursday 15 May in Istanbul,” he said.

Speaking to Sky News Russia correspondent Ivor Bennett after the statement, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow does not “share the view of Starmer”.

“We think that the seriousness is to propose negotiations,” he said, denying the move was a delaying tactic.

Mr Peskov said there had to be negotiations to find a way for a ceasefire, adding: “A simplistic approach to a ceasefire is inappropriate.”

European leaders hold call with Ukraine. Pic: Number 10
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European leaders including Volodymyr Zelenskyy hold call with Donald Trump. Pic: Number 10

Russia’s own unilateral three-day ceasefire, declared for the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany, expired on Saturday, and Ukraine said Russian forces have repeatedly violated it.

After the summit in Kyiv, Sir Keir said: “All of us here, together with the US, are calling Putin out.

“So we are clear, all five leaders here – all the leaders of the meeting we just had with the coalition of the willing – an unconditional ceasefire, rejecting Putin’s conditions, and clear that if he turns his back on peace, we will respond.

“Working with President Trump, with all our partners, we will ramp up sanctions and increase our military aid for Ukraine’s defence to pressure Russia back to the table.”

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During Mr Putin’s statement on Sunday, he insisted he would support peace talks, adding: “We are committed to serious negotiations with Ukraine.”

He told reporters: “Their purpose is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, to establish a long-term, lasting peace.

“We do not rule out that during these negotiations it will be possible to agree on some new truces, a new ceasefire.”

Read more:
Will Trump force Putin to comply with ceasefire?
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Ukraine and Russia argue over ceasefire breaches

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Responding to Mr Putin’s proposal, Mr Macron said the Russian leader was “looking for a way forward, but he still has a desire to buy time”.

Mr Putin’s proposed negotiations are “a first step, but they are not sufficient,” he told French broadcaster BFM.

“An unconditional ceasefire is not preceded by negotiations, by definition.”

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