Turkish election: Erdogan has once again proved critics wrong and out-manoeuvred his toughest challengers
The man who revels in his image as Turkey’s strongman took an early lead almost as soon as polls closed in the second round of voting for president.
Celebrations began long before the official declaration. But in truth, the dye was cast some time ago, before the election.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan‘s demeanour even before campaigning began for the unprecedented run-off has been one of a leader comfortably confident of securing his third decade in power in a country that holds a uniquely significant geographical position in the world.
Turkey election latest:
Erdogan thanks crowds as election officials declare him winner
From the time he voted in the first round to extend his time as president, he appeared supremely relaxed about his chances of winning.
This was despite the polls showing him trailing behind his challenger, the leader of a six-party alliance called Kemal Kilicdoroglu.
Mr Erdogan’s re-election comes in the teeth of a spiralling economy, rampant inflation and in the wake of a horrific natural disaster clouded by accusations his government was slow to respond.
“We are so happy,” one of his fans told us outside his Istanbul home. “Our economy is good….OK, it’s been bad for two years but we trust him and he will do his best.”
“Bye bye Kemal,” others told us. “Erdogan is our strong leader,” was the mantra repeated to us over and over again.
The people gathered waving flags, setting off fireworks and singing and dancing down the roads leading to his home in the Uskudar district of the city were predominantly religious conservatives, many of them women, mostly wearing hijabs and conservative Muslim clothing.
“We love Erdogan,” they told us.
Within an hour or so of polls closing, with just 55% of votes counted, the incumbent had already built a hefty lead, according to the state broadcaster TRT.
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Sky’s Alex Crawford reports from Istanbul as Turkey reacts to Erdogan claiming victory
That very early lead never seemed likely to change.
Later counting narrowed the gap somewhat but the sitting president still managed to secure more than half of the votes cast with his rival trailing roughly four points behind. (Latest official figures at the time of writing show 52.1% to Mr Erdogan and 47.8% for Mr Kilicdaroglu.)
This was the closest President Erdogan had come to being unseated was how the opposition and most Western media framed the outcome of the first round.
But in reality, the odds were always heavily stacked against any electoral upset or success by his rival.
Mr Erdogan has spent his two decades at the helm consolidating his power – cracking down on dissent, intimidating and jailing opposition politicians and journalists and ensuring the Turkish media is mostly state-controlled and compliant.
A boy holding a Turkish flag after the election
International observers in the country who were monitoring the initial vote criticised Mr Erdogan’s use of state resources and his control of the media to unduly influence the electorate.
Once the dust has settled, they’re likely to voice the same concerns this time around.
In his concession speech, Mr Kilicdoruglu called it the “most unjust election campaign ever” referring to the heavily-biased coverage of the president’s campaign in most Turkish outlets rather than his.
Erdogan’s challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu
When we managed to get close enough to question the sitting leader about whether he’d accept the outcome of the vote whatever the result (in the first round), we were sharply rebuked by him for questioning his approach and his ‘history’ over the past 20 years.
“That is a very bad question,” he told me.
“You don’t know me and how I’ve been over the past 20 years,” he scolded me as his security detail and political team rushed to move him on quickly.
Alex Crawford speaks to people celebrating Erdogan’s win in Turkey
His critics believe his next five years in office are likely to see him take the country further down the autocratic path he embarked on several years ago.
It’s a path made smoother after his AK Party gained 266 seats in the parliamentary elections, resulting in a commanding total of 321 including his coalition partners.
Read more:
Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Who is Turkey’s president?
Who is Kemal Kilicdaroglu – the man who wanted to end Erdogan’s reign?
If his campaigning over the past two weeks and his repeated criticism of how Western journalists have covered the elections are anything to go by, President Erdogan is likely to ratchet up his strained relationship with the foreign media and those nations critical of his leadership.
At one rally he told his supporters: “We are competing against those trying to disrupt the century of Turkey.
“Magazines have covers reading Erdogan must go. It’s none of your business. The West cannot decide it. It is up to my nation.”
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President Erdogan speaking to crowds before victory was declared
Mr Erdogan’s influence during his years in power on international affairs like the Russia-Ukraine war and the European migration crisis has been crucial. And he has used his position skilfully.
A largely suspicious West has seen him manoeuvre himself into a pivotal global spot – able to talk to the leaders of both Russia and Ukraine as well as America and Iran – and building essential bridges with key economic powers like Saudi Arabia, as well as sending peacekeeping troops to countries like Somalia and Libya.
He has visited African countries more times than any other non-African leader during his time in office.
Analysis:
The West will be disappointed with Erdogan’s electoral success
As a member of NATO, he’s shown he can wield considerable clout for political gain as he’s demonstrated recently with the delayed but final acceptance of Finland into the club.
Turkey’s acquiescence only came after Finland agreed to take a harder line against Kurdish dissidents and the Kurdish PKK party.
Now on his home turf, he has once again proved the critics wrong and outmanoeuvred his toughest challengers and his grip on power seems unassailable.
World
Software issue hits thousands of Airbus A320 planes – UK passengers warned of potential disruption
Passengers have been warned of potential disruption after thousands of Airbus planes were hit by a software issue.
The aircraft affected are from the A320 family – which are used by numerous airlines – and need a systems update before they can fly again.
Airbus issued the alert after analysis of a flight involving an A320 showed “intense solar radiation may corrupt data critical to the functioning of flight controls”.
The Airbus A320 family is the most-delivered jetliner in history.. File pic: iStock
It is understood the incident that triggered the warning involved a JetBlue flight from Cancun, Mexico, to Newark on 30 October.
That flight was diverted to Tampa International Airport after it suffered a flight control issue and experienced a sharp loss of altitude, which injured at least 15 passengers.
An Airbus spokesperson told Sky News the software change would affect up to 6,000 planes.
The fix involves A320 aircraft reverting to an earlier software version and Airbus stressed it would only take two to three hours for most planes.
However, it said some jets would also need new hardware and therefore would be affected for longer. Industry sources estimated about 1,000 aircraft could be in this position.
America’s aviation watchdog has issued an emergency order to immediately replace or modify the software, mirroring one from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency.
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Solving Airbus software issue could take ‘several hours per aircraft’
‘Very concerning’
Gatwick said a “small number” of carriers based there were affected, but warned disruption was still possible. It urged passengers to contact their airline.
Heathrow said it wasn’t expecting any disruption.
“The good news is it seems the impact on UK airlines seems limited, with a smaller number of aircraft requiring more complex software and hardware changes,” said Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander.
She said it was “heartening this issue has been identified and will be addressed so swiftly”.
Airbus is understood to have traced the issue to the ELAC (Elevator and Aileron Computer) system, which sends commands to elevators on the plane’s tail. These in turn control the aircraft’s pitch or nose angle.
Travel expert Simon Calder said the situation was “very concerning” but stressed “aviation remains extraordinarily safe”.
He warned customers might not be entitled to compensation if they’re delayed as the issue would be considered out of airlines’ control.
Read more:
Which airlines are affected by Airbus disruption?
Why plane’s altitude drop led to thousands needing updates
What have airlines said?
EasyJet said it had already completed the software update on many aircraft and was working closely with safety authorities.
“We plan to operate our flying programme normally on Saturday and ask that customers travelling continue to monitor their flights on flight tracker,” it added.
The airline said passengers would be informed of any changes by email, SMS, or the flight tracker
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How the US is affected by Airbus software issue
British Airways said it wasn’t expecting any problems and that only three of its planes were affected.
For American Airlines – the world’s largest operator of the A320 – the issue was more significant, with 209 aircraft needing an update.
It comes on a huge travel weekend stateside as many travel home after Thanksgiving. However, the US carrier said the fix would be completed for the vast majority of its planes on Friday.
Others affected include Japan’s All Nippon Airways, which cancelled 65 domestic flights on Saturday, and Air France – which said it was cancelling 35 flights.
Ireland’s Aer Lingus said a limited number of aircraft were impacted, while Wizz Air has started the software update but said some weekend flights could still be affected.
“Passengers who booked directly with Wizz Air via the website or mobile app will be notified of any schedule changes,” the airline said.
Thousands of planes from Airbus’s widely-used A320 family have been ordered for repairs following a software issue.
The aircraft manufacturer is carrying out software updates for 6,000 of its jets – around half the global fleet – threatening travel disruption for airline passengers.
The UK’s Civil Aviation Authority said it expects some disruptions to airlines and flights, with easyJet and Wizz Air saying they will take some planes briefly out of service to do the repairs.
But why have airlines been told to carry out a software update for the planes, and how is solar radiation involved?
Follow the latest updates on this story
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Airbus software works to take ‘days’
What triggered the repair order?
It is understood the incident that triggered the unexpected repair order involved a JetBlue flight from Cancun, Mexico, to Newark, New Jersey, on 30 October.
The flight suffered a control problem and a sudden uncommanded drop in altitude, basically a sharp loss of height, which left 15 passengers with injuries and forced the flight to make an emergency landing in Tampa, Florida.
After investigating the incident, Airbus said “intense solar radiation” may corrupt data critical to the functioning of flight controls.
The issue is known as bit flip, where solar radiation can strike a computer’s memory, changing its data from a 0 to a 1 and vice versa – a risk which also affects spacecraft.
Read more: Which airlines are affected by Airbus disruption?
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Ex-pilot tells Sky News how long it could take to solve Airbus software issue
‘Very concerning’ – but ‘very low likelihood’ of such an event
The situation was “very concerning”, travel expert Simon Calder told Sky News presenter Gillian Joseph.
However, he said there was a “very low likelihood” of such an event happening, adding: “In aviation, nothing is taken for granted.”
He said: “Aviation remains extraordinarily safe. And that is partly because as soon as a possible threat is identified, then action is taken immediately.”
What is the fix?
The fix involves reverting to earlier software, but must be carried out before the planes can fly again, according to a bulletin to airlines.
Airbus said for most of the affected aircraft, the required update would only take between two to three hours.
However, some jets may need to have their hardware replaced to adopt the required software – a process which would take a longer time.
The Airbus bulletin traced the problem to a flight system called ELAC (Elevator and Aileron Computer), which sends commands from the pilot’s side-stick to elevators at the rear of the plane, Reuters reported.
Those elevators control the aircraft’s pitch or nose angle, determining which way it is flying.
The A320 was first launched in 1984 and is the main competitor to the Boeing 737 MAX, which was grounded worldwide between March 2019 and December 2020, as well as during January 2024, after fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 caused by faulty flight-control software.
World
‘Even if my parents are dead, I just want to know’: Hong Kong residents stunned by tower tragedy
What do you do, how do you spend your time, when you’ve just lost everything you have?
This was the dilemma for thousands today in Hong Kong.
On the whole, it seemed people chose to stay close to the scene.
Hong Kong fire block latest: More arrests in deadly tower blaze
The square that had become the heart of the community response was heaving. Many poured through the piles of clothes, blankets and other supplies.
Some simply sat and watched on, their faces blank and stunned.
Birds fly over the burned buildings at the fire scene at Wang Fuk Court, on 27 November. Pic: AP
Above them, the seven blackened towers are now still and quiet. The blaze is finally out.
But an unknown number are still lying somewhere inside – and the wait for news is unbearable.
“Even if they are dead, I just want to know,” cries Mr Lau, whose elderly parents lived 27 floors up. His grief is raw and unchecked.
“I want to ask John Lee [Hong Kong’s chief executive], what are you actually doing? All you did was wander around and hold press conferences. What about us?”
His questions reflect a noticeable shift in the tone here.
There is a tension emerging, an anxiety, even an anger.
People look at flames engulfing a building after a fire broke out at Wang Fuk Court on 26 November. Pic: AP
Of course, people are furious with the construction company that was undertaking renovations and is accused of cutting corners.
But that is not their only target.
Many here believe the Beijing-backed government has not enforced good enough safety standards, batting away residents’ concerns and turning a blind eye to issues like overcrowding.
They say it is now too focused on deflecting the blame.
“With every building maintenance project, there are criticisms, but these criticisms are always suppressed,” explains one man who lives in the neighbourhood.
Flowers near the scene. Pic: AP
And do you think there’s corruption, I ask?
“Absolutely,” he says.
They are particularly exercised about what they see as an overfocus on the bamboo scaffolding.
Considered almost a part of Hong Kong’s cultural heritage, it was already being phased out. A convenient distraction from other failings, according to people here.
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Hundreds missing after Hong Kong fire
Tensions are high, too, between different groups of volunteers.
We witnessed two separate arguments where local grassroots organisers accused some who are part of a government-linked group of attempting to seize control and take the credit.
In the Hong Kong of old, there would almost certainly have been vigils here.
But after a massive crackdown on pro-democracy movements that climaxed in 2019, any mass gathering in today’s Hong Kong is seen as dangerous.
A resident looks at the burned buildings. Pic: AP
Even if it is just to honour the dead.
It feels like the resentments left over from that time are not that far from the surface.
This is still a human tragedy, but the fallout could well be political.
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