Turkish election: Erdogan has once again proved critics wrong and out-manoeuvred his toughest challengers

Published

2 years ago

May 29, 2023

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The man who revels in his image as Turkey’s strongman took an early lead almost as soon as polls closed in the second round of voting for president.

Celebrations began long before the official declaration. But in truth, the dye was cast some time ago, before the election.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan‘s demeanour even before campaigning began for the unprecedented run-off has been one of a leader comfortably confident of securing his third decade in power in a country that holds a uniquely significant geographical position in the world.

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From the time he voted in the first round to extend his time as president, he appeared supremely relaxed about his chances of winning.

This was despite the polls showing him trailing behind his challenger, the leader of a six-party alliance called Kemal Kilicdoroglu.

Mr Erdogan’s re-election comes in the teeth of a spiralling economy, rampant inflation and in the wake of a horrific natural disaster clouded by accusations his government was slow to respond.

“We are so happy,” one of his fans told us outside his Istanbul home. “Our economy is good….OK, it’s been bad for two years but we trust him and he will do his best.”

“Bye bye Kemal,” others told us. “Erdogan is our strong leader,” was the mantra repeated to us over and over again.

The people gathered waving flags, setting off fireworks and singing and dancing down the roads leading to his home in the Uskudar district of the city were predominantly religious conservatives, many of them women, mostly wearing hijabs and conservative Muslim clothing.

“We love Erdogan,” they told us.

Within an hour or so of polls closing, with just 55% of votes counted, the incumbent had already built a hefty lead, according to the state broadcaster TRT.

That very early lead never seemed likely to change.

Later counting narrowed the gap somewhat but the sitting president still managed to secure more than half of the votes cast with his rival trailing roughly four points behind. (Latest official figures at the time of writing show 52.1% to Mr Erdogan and 47.8% for Mr Kilicdaroglu.)

This was the closest President Erdogan had come to being unseated was how the opposition and most Western media framed the outcome of the first round.

But in reality, the odds were always heavily stacked against any electoral upset or success by his rival.

Mr Erdogan has spent his two decades at the helm consolidating his power – cracking down on dissent, intimidating and jailing opposition politicians and journalists and ensuring the Turkish media is mostly state-controlled and compliant.

International observers in the country who were monitoring the initial vote criticised Mr Erdogan’s use of state resources and his control of the media to unduly influence the electorate.

Once the dust has settled, they’re likely to voice the same concerns this time around.

In his concession speech, Mr Kilicdoruglu called it the “most unjust election campaign ever” referring to the heavily-biased coverage of the president’s campaign in most Turkish outlets rather than his.

When we managed to get close enough to question the sitting leader about whether he’d accept the outcome of the vote whatever the result (in the first round), we were sharply rebuked by him for questioning his approach and his ‘history’ over the past 20 years.

“That is a very bad question,” he told me.

“You don’t know me and how I’ve been over the past 20 years,” he scolded me as his security detail and political team rushed to move him on quickly.

His critics believe his next five years in office are likely to see him take the country further down the autocratic path he embarked on several years ago.

It’s a path made smoother after his AK Party gained 266 seats in the parliamentary elections, resulting in a commanding total of 321 including his coalition partners.

If his campaigning over the past two weeks and his repeated criticism of how Western journalists have covered the elections are anything to go by, President Erdogan is likely to ratchet up his strained relationship with the foreign media and those nations critical of his leadership.

At one rally he told his supporters: “We are competing against those trying to disrupt the century of Turkey.

“Magazines have covers reading Erdogan must go. It’s none of your business. The West cannot decide it. It is up to my nation.”

Mr Erdogan’s influence during his years in power on international affairs like the Russia-Ukraine war and the European migration crisis has been crucial. And he has used his position skilfully.

A largely suspicious West has seen him manoeuvre himself into a pivotal global spot – able to talk to the leaders of both Russia and Ukraine as well as America and Iran – and building essential bridges with key economic powers like Saudi Arabia, as well as sending peacekeeping troops to countries like Somalia and Libya.

He has visited African countries more times than any other non-African leader during his time in office.

Analysis:
The West will be disappointed with Erdogan’s electoral success

As a member of NATO, he’s shown he can wield considerable clout for political gain as he’s demonstrated recently with the delayed but final acceptance of Finland into the club.

Turkey’s acquiescence only came after Finland agreed to take a harder line against Kurdish dissidents and the Kurdish PKK party.

Now on his home turf, he has once again proved the critics wrong and outmanoeuvred his toughest challengers and his grip on power seems unassailable.

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South Korea’s parliament impeaches acting president

Published

7 hours ago

December 27, 2024

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South Korea's parliament impeaches acting president

South Korea’s parliament has voted to impeach acting President Han Duck-soo.

The move could deepen a constitutional crisis triggered by a short-lived period of martial law declared by Mr Han’s predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol.

After the vote on Friday, Mr Han said he will step aside to avoid more chaos.

The opposition brought impeachment proceedings against him over his refusal to immediately fill three places on South Korea’s Constitutional Court – where the former president is on trial.

Three justices had been approved by parliament – where the opposition Democratic Party has a majority – but Mr Han said he would not formally appoint them without bipartisan agreement.

South Korea’s constitution says that six justices on the nine-member Constitutional Court must agree to remove an impeached president, meaning the current justices must vote unanimously to remove Mr Yoon.

The court has said it can deliberate without the full nine-member bench.

Leader of the opposition Lee Jae-myung had vowed to go ahead with the impeachment, accusing Mr Han of “acting for insurrection”.

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Now that Mr Han – who is also prime minister – has been impeached, his finance minister Choi Sang-mok is set to take over as acting president.

Politicians in the 300 parliament voted 192-0 to impeach him. Governing party politicians boycotted the vote.

Following the vote, Mr Han said he would respect the decision and will await a ruling from the Constitutional Court on the impeachment motion.

Mr Han will be stripped of the powers and duties of the president until the Constitutional Court decides whether to dismiss or reinstate him – the same as with Mr Yoon.

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Ukraine War: Vladimir Putin open to peace talks in Slovakia

Published

11 hours ago

December 27, 2024

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Ukraine War: Vladimir Putin open to peace talks in Slovakia

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would be open to peace talks with Ukraine in Slovakia “if it comes to that”.

Mr Putin said Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who this week visited the Kremlin, had offered his country as a location for negotiations as the war in Ukraine nears the three-year mark.

The Russian president said the Slovakian authorities “would be happy to provide their own country as a platform for negotiations”.

“We are not opposed, if it comes to that. Why not? Since Slovakia takes such a neutral position,” Mr Putin said, adding he was resolved to end the conflict in Ukraine, which started with a land, air and sea invasion of Russia’s smaller neighbour in February 2022.

Follow the latest updates on the war in Ukraine

Ukraine is yet to comment on Slovakia’s offer but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly criticised the country, which borders Ukraine, for the friendly tone Mr Fico has struck towards Russia since his return to power after an election in 2023.

Mr Fico has been critical of EU support for Ukraine, where millions have been displaced since Mr Putin’s decision to launch a “special military operation” to “denazify” and “demilitarise” the 37 million-strong country.

Mr Putin has repeatedly said Russia is open to talks to end the conflict with Kyiv, but that it would nevertheless achieve its goals in Ukraine.

He has previously demanded Ukraine withdraw its bid to join NATO and asked it to recognise Russia’s gains. Both Kyiv and the West have rejected those demands.

But while Mr Zelenskyy had for most of the conflict insisted Ukraine would keep fighting until it regained control of its territories, his position on negotiations now appears to have shifted.

In an interview with Sky News, Mr Zelenskyy suggested a ceasefire deal could be struck if the Ukrainian territory he controls could be taken “under the NATO umbrella”.

This would then allow him to negotiate the return of the rest later “in a diplomatic way”.

The Ukrainian leader admitted last week his forces would be unable to recapture any territories occupied by Russia in the east of Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula.

While Kyiv would never recognise Russia’s rule, he said diplomacy is the only option to get Mr Putin to withdraw his army.

The war in Ukraine has taken a devastating toll on Russia too. UK government and military analysis estimates that Russia has lost around half a million troops killed or wounded in Ukraine.

Such is the pressure on manpower that The Kremlin turned to one of its remaining allies, North Korea, to provide additional forces.

It’s thought 10,000 to 12,000 troops were sent in October to fight alongside the Russian military in the fighting in the Kursk region.

However it’s suggested their lack of combat experience has resulted in heavy losses, with Mr Zelenskyy saying earlier this week that 3,000 North Korean troops have already been killed and wounded.

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Donald Trump: President-elect targets Canada, Greenland and Panama Canal in Christmas message

Published

23 hours ago

December 26, 2024

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Donald Trump: President-elect targets Canada, Greenland and Panama Canal in Christmas message

Donald Trump has suggested the US could take control of Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal in a series of Christmas Day social media posts.

The president-elect wished a merry Christmas to all on his Truth Social platform, “including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal”.

In the lengthy posts, Mr Trump referred to the American lives lost during the canal’s construction and said the US “puts in billions of dollars in ‘repair’ money, but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything’.”

He also mocked Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor” and again suggested the country could be turned into a US state – following similar comments made in recent weeks.

“If Canada was to become our 51st state, their taxes would be cut by more than 60%, their businesses would immediately double in size, and they would be militarily protected like no other country anywhere in the world,” he wrote.

In another post, Mr Trump, 78, said he had encouraged former ice hockey star Wayne Gretzky to run for prime minister but he “had no interest”.

He also addressed “the people of Greenland, which is needed by the United States for national security purposes and, who want the US to be there, and we will!”

It comes after Mr Trump renewed the call he made during his first term in office for the US to buy Greenland from Denmark.

The world’s largest island, which sits between the Atlantic and Arctic oceans, is 80% covered by an ice sheet and is home to a large US military base. Greenland gained autonomy from Denmark in 1979.

The island’s Prime Minister Mute Egede has insisted Greenland is not for sale.

Mr Trump has also previously threatened to retake control of the Panama Canal, accusing Panama of charging excessive rates to use the crucial trade passage and warning of potential Chinese influence.

Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino previously said his country’s independence was non-negotiable and that China had no influence on the canal’s administration.

The canal is a critical waterway for world trade, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and allows ships to avoid lengthy and hazardous journeys around the southernmost tip of South America by cutting through the middle of the Americas.

After the ambitious project was opened in 1914, the canal and surrounding territory were controlled by the US until an agreement with Panama in 1977 paved the way for it to return to full Panamanian control in 1999.

China does not control the canal but a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings has long managed two ports at the canal’s Caribbean and Pacific entrances.