Zohran Mamdani calls himself “Donald Trump’s worst nightmare”. They are the words of a man living the dream.

It’s because the 34-year-old is the headline act in Tuesday’s referendum on Trump 2.0. A statement night in US politics, as Americans – some, at least – deliver a verdict on what they’ve seen so far.

Of four electoral contests across the US – including in California, New Jersey and Virginia – the race to be New York mayor is the most compulsive and consequential.

The polls have Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, as the frontrunner. If he wins, it would signify big change in the Big Apple.

Read more: Who is Zohran Mamdani?

Born in Uganda to Indian parents (he moved to the US aged seven), Mamdani would become New York’s first Muslim mayor.

He is a democratic socialist whose supporters will see victory as laying down a template for taking on Trump, even if the party’s old guard is sceptical.

An effective campaign has focused on the costs and quality of life in New York, promising universal childcare, a rent freeze, free bus travel and grocery shops run by the city.

So why is he controversial?

The message has resonated with New Yorkers squeezed on affordability, but his payment plan is open to question.

Mamdani plans to raise $9bn by raising taxes on the wealthy and on corporations, but he would face a struggle to gain the necessary consent of the New York State legislature and governor.

Mamdani’s politics are pegged to the “progressive” left wing of his party, and his campaign success plays into the Democrats’ quandary around a longer-term comeback strategy.

The politics that succeed in New York don’t necessarily resonate nationwide, and a party establishment has been reluctant to embrace Mamdani.

Democrat Chuck Schumer, Senate minority leader, has declined to endorse him at all.

Party management aside, he won’t have been impressed when Mamdani was arrested outside Schumer’s Brooklyn home as part of a 2023 protest calling for a ceasefire following Hamas’ October 7th attack on Israel.

Mamdani has been a staunch critic of Israel and, in the past, has advocated defunding the police, decriminalising prostitution and closing New York City jails.

His background and Islamic faith are threaded through opposition attacks. He has been criticised for refusing to denounce the phrase “globalise the intifada”, used by pro-Palestinian activists.

Subsequently, he said he would “discourage” the term and would combat antisemitism through actions as well as words.

It hasn’t stopped his Republican rival, Curtis Sliwa, claiming Mamdani supported “global jihad”.

Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani, has labelled him “the most divisive candidate I have ever experienced in New York”.

Trump gives Cuomo an endorsement – of sorts

Cuomo, the former New York governor who resigned over sexual harassment allegations, is Mamdani’s closest contender who has received support – of sorts – from Trump.

The president, who falsely labels Mamdani a communist, said on Truth Social on the eve of the election: “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice.

“You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”

At a rally the same night, Mamdani fired back to say: “The MAGA movement’s embrace of Andrew Cuomo is reflective of Donald Trump’s understanding that this would be the best mayor for him.

“Not the best mayor for New York City, not the best mayor for New Yorkers, but the best mayor for Donald Trump and his administration.”

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The Republican spin on the prospect of a Mamdani victory is that it would reflect a move towards radical extremism by the Democratic Party.

Trump has even suggested he may withhold federal funds from New York if Mamdani wins.

In time, Democrats would need to interpret and apply the lessons of a Mamdani victory. But more than anything else, they need a win to feel a pulse in a party undergoing an identity crisis.

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One battle after another

The same applies to Tuesday contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia, fascinating in terms of the vote winners and vote breakdown.

What will be the verdict, nine months in, of people who turned to Trump at the last election? Will he hold onto the Latino vote, given his immigration policy, ICE raids, and other orders?

In California, Tuesday sees a redistricting vote to counter Republican gerrymandering elsewhere. If backed by the public, the plan will increase the number of winnable Democratic seats in the House of Representatives.

Read more: The controversial tactic both parties are using ahead of midterms

It is the initiative of California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom.

If he wins the day, his party will be enhanced and so will he, as the potential party nominee for president come the election in 2028.

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Donald Trump sits down for an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes – the programme he sued successfully for $16m just four months ago.

All the while, his poll numbers are at an all-time low due to the government shutdown, as hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain unpaid and food benefits for millions of people run out.

And is this the week the real Democrats stand up? Their favourability numbers are also dire, but will the emergence of a firebrand left-wing mayor in New York City, in the shape of Zohran Mamdani, and a handful of positive off-year election results on Tuesday be the spark they desperately need to counter Trump’s MAGA agenda?

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