Go big or go home: Connelly’s ridiculous — or ridiculously amazing — realignment suggestions
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
College football’s Great Realignment has been on pause in recent months.
After the seismic moves we saw in recent summers — Oklahoma and Texas announcing they were joining the SEC in 2021, USC and UCLA announcing they were joining the Big Ten in 2022 — there aren’t all that many conceivable earthquakes remaining. But with the ACC unsettled, members of the Pac-12 continuing to wait (and wait, and wait) for numbers on a new media deal, and the Big 12 looking to do something bold, discontent and uncertainty are high.
With the ACC’s long grant-of-rights deal still legally impenetrable at the moment — and, therefore, the thought of ACC programs leaving for another conference remaining unrealistic in the short term — the next if-then moment is pretty well understood: At some point, the Pac-12 will announce its new media rights numbers, and either they will be good enough or they won’t.
If they’re comparable to the Big 12’s recent numbers, then the Pac-12 will likely keep its 10 remaining members in place and attempt to add two more. (Current indications are that San Diego State and SMU are at the top of the expansion wish list.) If the numbers are drastically inferior, things could get weird. The easternmost members of the conference — some combination of Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State — could welcome an aggressive advance by the Big 12. That could create a potential domino effect: Maybe the Big Ten takes an accelerated look at Oregon and Washington (and maybe Cal and Stanford)? Maybe those schools look the Big 12’s way?
The Pac-12’s persistent delays in announcing media rights certainly don’t build optimism, but for now I continue to assume that odds favor the Pac-12 patching together some sort of coalition of broadcasters and promising just enough annual revenue that it keeps its members in place for now. But if there’s one constant in recent summers, it’s that our assumptions are consistently wrong.
The next decade or so of realignment could be both interesting and depressing
We’re facing one of two futures in this era of college football: Either (a) the Big Ten and SEC become the sport’s two dominant financial forces, creating more of a Power Two of sorts than a Power Five, or (b) the Big Ten and SEC become so powerful that we end up with the dreaded “super league” situation, in which they become either a formal or informal top division for the sport.
There’s a chance that, when the ACC’s grant of rights gets closer to its expiration, both the Big Ten and SEC pluck away its most valuable schools, ensuring that almost all of the sport’s big brands reside in one of two neighborhoods. We have seen plenty of speculation that the members of these conferences will form some sort of super league among themselves, a rather fatalistic vision. But there really won’t be a need for any formal separation at that point — the Big Ten and SEC will form the anchors for all of college sports regardless.
That doesn’t have to be completely unhealthy, by the way. Look at European soccer: Over the past 10 years, teams from England’s Premier League and Spain’s La Liga have scooped up 15 of 20 spots in the Champions League final and won all but one title. But well-run (and well-monied) clubs in other countries — Germany’s Bayern Munich, France’s Paris Saint-Germain, a varied smattering of Italian clubs — still make big runs when they have all their ducks in a row. Germany still has a product attractive enough to outdraw the Premier League in terms of attendance, and the pressure that comes with extreme riches has led to loads of panic spending and panic firings from Barcelona and many English clubs. That opens the door for well-run clubs outside of those areas to take advantage.
As long as schools in other conferences have a reason to invest, and fans continue to have a reason to care, football in conferences outside of the Big Two can remain both relevant and exciting. None of this power concentration is optimal, but a reasonably healthy ecosystem can still exist.
More than any future realignment moves, the single most important feature, when it comes to the health of the Big 12, ACC and Pac-12, could be the structure of the upcoming 12-team football playoff. For 2024 and 2025, the playoff will feature a minimum of six conference champions, four of which will get first-round byes. That alone makes winning those three conferences vitally important and worth striving (and investing) for. With that requirement in place, these conferences will remain viable for that reason alone. But there’s no guarantee the requirement will remain in place when contracts are renegotiated for 2026 and beyond. If the Pac-12 gets severely diminished in coming realignment moves, that could impact things, as could a power move from a figure like SEC commissioner Greg Sankey.
If the right people want further power conference concentration, and if the television revenue is there for it — it certainly has been so far, but there’s no guarantee that continues — it’s hard to know what might stop it. And we’ve potentially seen some of the last big home run swings available; there really aren’t many huge brands left to change conferences unless the Big Ten and SEC start stealing from each other.
For now, though, let’s daydream. For the conferences that are falling behind the Big Two, let’s think of some big swings for them to take. A Big 36? A Pac-91? Why not? Here are three (mostly) unrealistic but fun scenarios for the future of college sports.
(Please remember: There are no wrong answers in the brainstorming process.)
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Jesse Rogers
SAN FRANCISCO — As he prepared to face his former team just five days after being traded, San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers wants to leave things in the past as it pertains to the Boston Red Sox.
But he did provide some insight into his feelings when he was asked Friday why he would consider playing first base for the Giants when he refused to do so for the Red Sox.
“I put up some good numbers in Boston and I feel like I earned some respect,” Devers said through an interpreter. “If they would have asked me at the beginning of spring training, yes, I would have played [first].”
Of course, back then the Red Sox didn’t have an opening at first base as Triston Casas didn’t get hurt until about a month into the season. But the overall damage had been done.
The lack of communication between the sides seemingly led to the stunning trade, and now just three games into his career with San Francisco, Devers has to face his old teammates in a weekend series at Oracle Park.
“Whatever happened, happened,” Devers said. “But they’re still my friends.”
Devers actually got to see his friends after they arrived in town Thursday, but as of early Friday afternoon, he had not seen or talked to manager Alex Cora. He’s confident he will.
Devers was pressed about his former manager.
“I don’t want to talk about the past,” Devers said. “I don’t have anything good or bad to say about Alex. I just want to leave everything in the past.”
Cora addressed the subject during his pregame media availability, saying, “There’s a lot of stuff that Rafy did for us that we’re going to miss. We’re very proud of him.”
Asked if the two need to clear the air about anything, Cora replied, “Clear the air about what? It’s a trade. It’s baseball. It’s a business. That’s how it works.
“It’s not the first guy that’s gotten traded. It’s not the last guy. People have their opinions about the whole thing. Communication, first base, DH, third base, the manager, the GM, the owner, whatever. It’s a baseball trade. From my end, I turn the page.”
Cora was then asked if he’s “surprised” Devers is working at first base, to which the manager offered a succinct, “No.”
Devers acknowledged it’s been a “long week” but he’s feeling more relaxed and even happy now. Entering Friday, he was 3-for-11 with two walks and four strikeouts for his new team, which desperately needs his presence in its lineup.
Devers, batting third and serving as the Giants’ designated hitter, got a standing ovation before grounding out in his first at-bat in the first inning Friday and hit a drive to the wall in left-center that Ceddanne Rafaela caught against the wall.
He would finish the game 0-for-5 as San Francisco lost 7-5 and dropped to 1-3 since the trade. It was the second time this season Devers went 0-for-5 or worse (0-for-6 at at Detroit on May 13), and the first time he did so in a home game since Sept. 26, 2023 (Rays at Red Sox).
Eventually, he’ll see time at first base — but only when he’s ready.
“It’s not a position I’m going to learn how to play overnight,” Devers said.
“It’s not the first guy that’s gotten traded. It’s not the last guy. People have their opinions about the whole thing. Communication, first base, DH, third base, the manager, the GM, the owner, whatever. It’s a baseball trade. From my end, I turn the page.”
Red Sox manager Alex Cora
He was asked several times when he might get a start there.
“Whenever I feel like I’m comfortable,” he answered.
The conversation eventually came back around to his relationship with the Red Sox, but Devers insisted on putting it behind him.
“I really don’t want to talk about it,” he said. “I want to concentrate what’s in the future for me.”
ESPN Research and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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