Go big or go home: Connelly’s ridiculous — or ridiculously amazing — realignment suggestions
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
College football’s Great Realignment has been on pause in recent months.
After the seismic moves we saw in recent summers — Oklahoma and Texas announcing they were joining the SEC in 2021, USC and UCLA announcing they were joining the Big Ten in 2022 — there aren’t all that many conceivable earthquakes remaining. But with the ACC unsettled, members of the Pac-12 continuing to wait (and wait, and wait) for numbers on a new media deal, and the Big 12 looking to do something bold, discontent and uncertainty are high.
With the ACC’s long grant-of-rights deal still legally impenetrable at the moment — and, therefore, the thought of ACC programs leaving for another conference remaining unrealistic in the short term — the next if-then moment is pretty well understood: At some point, the Pac-12 will announce its new media rights numbers, and either they will be good enough or they won’t.
If they’re comparable to the Big 12’s recent numbers, then the Pac-12 will likely keep its 10 remaining members in place and attempt to add two more. (Current indications are that San Diego State and SMU are at the top of the expansion wish list.) If the numbers are drastically inferior, things could get weird. The easternmost members of the conference — some combination of Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State — could welcome an aggressive advance by the Big 12. That could create a potential domino effect: Maybe the Big Ten takes an accelerated look at Oregon and Washington (and maybe Cal and Stanford)? Maybe those schools look the Big 12’s way?
The Pac-12’s persistent delays in announcing media rights certainly don’t build optimism, but for now I continue to assume that odds favor the Pac-12 patching together some sort of coalition of broadcasters and promising just enough annual revenue that it keeps its members in place for now. But if there’s one constant in recent summers, it’s that our assumptions are consistently wrong.
The next decade or so of realignment could be both interesting and depressing
We’re facing one of two futures in this era of college football: Either (a) the Big Ten and SEC become the sport’s two dominant financial forces, creating more of a Power Two of sorts than a Power Five, or (b) the Big Ten and SEC become so powerful that we end up with the dreaded “super league” situation, in which they become either a formal or informal top division for the sport.
There’s a chance that, when the ACC’s grant of rights gets closer to its expiration, both the Big Ten and SEC pluck away its most valuable schools, ensuring that almost all of the sport’s big brands reside in one of two neighborhoods. We have seen plenty of speculation that the members of these conferences will form some sort of super league among themselves, a rather fatalistic vision. But there really won’t be a need for any formal separation at that point — the Big Ten and SEC will form the anchors for all of college sports regardless.
That doesn’t have to be completely unhealthy, by the way. Look at European soccer: Over the past 10 years, teams from England’s Premier League and Spain’s La Liga have scooped up 15 of 20 spots in the Champions League final and won all but one title. But well-run (and well-monied) clubs in other countries — Germany’s Bayern Munich, France’s Paris Saint-Germain, a varied smattering of Italian clubs — still make big runs when they have all their ducks in a row. Germany still has a product attractive enough to outdraw the Premier League in terms of attendance, and the pressure that comes with extreme riches has led to loads of panic spending and panic firings from Barcelona and many English clubs. That opens the door for well-run clubs outside of those areas to take advantage.
As long as schools in other conferences have a reason to invest, and fans continue to have a reason to care, football in conferences outside of the Big Two can remain both relevant and exciting. None of this power concentration is optimal, but a reasonably healthy ecosystem can still exist.
More than any future realignment moves, the single most important feature, when it comes to the health of the Big 12, ACC and Pac-12, could be the structure of the upcoming 12-team football playoff. For 2024 and 2025, the playoff will feature a minimum of six conference champions, four of which will get first-round byes. That alone makes winning those three conferences vitally important and worth striving (and investing) for. With that requirement in place, these conferences will remain viable for that reason alone. But there’s no guarantee the requirement will remain in place when contracts are renegotiated for 2026 and beyond. If the Pac-12 gets severely diminished in coming realignment moves, that could impact things, as could a power move from a figure like SEC commissioner Greg Sankey.
If the right people want further power conference concentration, and if the television revenue is there for it — it certainly has been so far, but there’s no guarantee that continues — it’s hard to know what might stop it. And we’ve potentially seen some of the last big home run swings available; there really aren’t many huge brands left to change conferences unless the Big Ten and SEC start stealing from each other.
For now, though, let’s daydream. For the conferences that are falling behind the Big Two, let’s think of some big swings for them to take. A Big 36? A Pac-91? Why not? Here are three (mostly) unrealistic but fun scenarios for the future of college sports.
(Please remember: There are no wrong answers in the brainstorming process.)
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — New York Rangers captain J.T. Miller will miss at least one game after getting injured Saturday and is not traveling with the team to Nashville.
Coach Mike Sullivan said Miller was still being evaluated back home for an upper-body injury and would not play Sunday night against the Predators.
Miller left the Rangers’ game against Philadelphia with about eight minutes left after taking a big hit from Flyers defenseman Nick Seeler and landing awkwardly. The 32-year-old forward appeared to be favoring his right arm or shoulder while in pain on the bench and skating off to go down the tunnel for medical attention.
“You don’t want to lose any teammates,” center Mika Zibanejad said. “When you see your captain go down and you don’t see him come back, that obviously becomes [a situation] for us to step up and everyone has to do a little more when a guy like that leaves. Just hoping everything is OK.”
Miller was named captain before training camp. He has 10 goals and 12 assists in 35 games this season and is believed to be in consideration for the U.S. Olympic team, though it’s unclear whether this injury could cloud that possibility.
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Greg Wyshynski
New Jersey Devils star Jack Hughes, out since Nov. 12 with a “freak” hand injury, will return to the lineup against the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday.
Hughes, 24, injured his hand at a team dinner in Chicago on Nov. 13, underwent surgery on his finger and was given a recovery window of eight weeks. He has been skating throughout his rehab and was recently spotting using a stick again on the ice.
He returned to Devils practice Sunday at an optional skate.
“Yeah, I’m going to play tonight. Might as well ease my way in,” Hughes joked after practice.
Both Hughes and the Devils were off to flying starts before his injury. New Jersey was 12-4-1, with the second-best points percentage (.735) in the NHL behind the Colorado Avalanche (.794) and first place in the Metropolitan Division. Hughes had 20 points in his first 17 games, including 10 goals.
The Devils struggled without their top-line center, going 8-10-0 (.444) and scoring 3.35 goals per game with Hughes to 2.28 goals per game without him. But they have remained in the playoff race in a competitive Eastern Conference, holding the final wild-card spot entering Sunday.
Hughes is one of three key players returning to the Devils’ lineup Sunday against surging Buffalo, which has won five straight games. Forward Timo Meier last played Dec. 9, having taken leave from the team for a family matter. He has 11 goals and 12 assists in 30 games. Forward Arseny Gritsyuk has missed the past four games due to injury. The rookie has 16 points in 31 games.
“To come back from the road trip and to have those guys in the building and then on the ice, it gives the [team] a boost,” coach Sheldon Keefe said Sunday. “There’s an emotional impact.”
Keefe said the challenge for his team is not to become suddenly passive because help has arrived.
“We’ve got to keep playing the way we’ve been playing and have those players enhance that,” he said. “Sometimes when you bring important people back to your group, there can be a tendency for the rest of the group to take a back seat. And that cannot happen.”
Sunday was Hughes’ first appearance since the injury and the first time he has faced questions about his brother, star defenseman Quinn Hughes, being traded to the Minnesota Wild last week.
Sources told ESPN that the Vancouver Canucks went to the Devils first in discussing trade destinations for Quinn Hughes, as his brothers Jack and Luke both play in New Jersey. Ultimately, the Canucks opted to trade Hughes to the Wild for center Marco Rossi, forward Liam Ohgren, defenseman Zeev Buium and a 2026 first-round pick.
“It happened fast,” Jack Hughes said, adding that there was a “little bit” of disappointment that the three brothers weren’t united together. “I think he’s happy in Minnesota now. They have a great team there, and they’re playing well. … We’re happy for him.”
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