Go big or go home: Connelly’s ridiculous — or ridiculously amazing — realignment suggestions
-
Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
College football’s Great Realignment has been on pause in recent months.
After the seismic moves we saw in recent summers — Oklahoma and Texas announcing they were joining the SEC in 2021, USC and UCLA announcing they were joining the Big Ten in 2022 — there aren’t all that many conceivable earthquakes remaining. But with the ACC unsettled, members of the Pac-12 continuing to wait (and wait, and wait) for numbers on a new media deal, and the Big 12 looking to do something bold, discontent and uncertainty are high.
With the ACC’s long grant-of-rights deal still legally impenetrable at the moment — and, therefore, the thought of ACC programs leaving for another conference remaining unrealistic in the short term — the next if-then moment is pretty well understood: At some point, the Pac-12 will announce its new media rights numbers, and either they will be good enough or they won’t.
If they’re comparable to the Big 12’s recent numbers, then the Pac-12 will likely keep its 10 remaining members in place and attempt to add two more. (Current indications are that San Diego State and SMU are at the top of the expansion wish list.) If the numbers are drastically inferior, things could get weird. The easternmost members of the conference — some combination of Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State — could welcome an aggressive advance by the Big 12. That could create a potential domino effect: Maybe the Big Ten takes an accelerated look at Oregon and Washington (and maybe Cal and Stanford)? Maybe those schools look the Big 12’s way?
The Pac-12’s persistent delays in announcing media rights certainly don’t build optimism, but for now I continue to assume that odds favor the Pac-12 patching together some sort of coalition of broadcasters and promising just enough annual revenue that it keeps its members in place for now. But if there’s one constant in recent summers, it’s that our assumptions are consistently wrong.
The next decade or so of realignment could be both interesting and depressing
We’re facing one of two futures in this era of college football: Either (a) the Big Ten and SEC become the sport’s two dominant financial forces, creating more of a Power Two of sorts than a Power Five, or (b) the Big Ten and SEC become so powerful that we end up with the dreaded “super league” situation, in which they become either a formal or informal top division for the sport.
There’s a chance that, when the ACC’s grant of rights gets closer to its expiration, both the Big Ten and SEC pluck away its most valuable schools, ensuring that almost all of the sport’s big brands reside in one of two neighborhoods. We have seen plenty of speculation that the members of these conferences will form some sort of super league among themselves, a rather fatalistic vision. But there really won’t be a need for any formal separation at that point — the Big Ten and SEC will form the anchors for all of college sports regardless.
That doesn’t have to be completely unhealthy, by the way. Look at European soccer: Over the past 10 years, teams from England’s Premier League and Spain’s La Liga have scooped up 15 of 20 spots in the Champions League final and won all but one title. But well-run (and well-monied) clubs in other countries — Germany’s Bayern Munich, France’s Paris Saint-Germain, a varied smattering of Italian clubs — still make big runs when they have all their ducks in a row. Germany still has a product attractive enough to outdraw the Premier League in terms of attendance, and the pressure that comes with extreme riches has led to loads of panic spending and panic firings from Barcelona and many English clubs. That opens the door for well-run clubs outside of those areas to take advantage.
As long as schools in other conferences have a reason to invest, and fans continue to have a reason to care, football in conferences outside of the Big Two can remain both relevant and exciting. None of this power concentration is optimal, but a reasonably healthy ecosystem can still exist.
More than any future realignment moves, the single most important feature, when it comes to the health of the Big 12, ACC and Pac-12, could be the structure of the upcoming 12-team football playoff. For 2024 and 2025, the playoff will feature a minimum of six conference champions, four of which will get first-round byes. That alone makes winning those three conferences vitally important and worth striving (and investing) for. With that requirement in place, these conferences will remain viable for that reason alone. But there’s no guarantee the requirement will remain in place when contracts are renegotiated for 2026 and beyond. If the Pac-12 gets severely diminished in coming realignment moves, that could impact things, as could a power move from a figure like SEC commissioner Greg Sankey.
If the right people want further power conference concentration, and if the television revenue is there for it — it certainly has been so far, but there’s no guarantee that continues — it’s hard to know what might stop it. And we’ve potentially seen some of the last big home run swings available; there really aren’t many huge brands left to change conferences unless the Big Ten and SEC start stealing from each other.
For now, though, let’s daydream. For the conferences that are falling behind the Big Two, let’s think of some big swings for them to take. A Big 36? A Pac-91? Why not? Here are three (mostly) unrealistic but fun scenarios for the future of college sports.
(Please remember: There are no wrong answers in the brainstorming process.)
After a two-game opening night, the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs continue Sunday with a trio of Game 1s:
Which teams will earn the early edge in their series? Who are the key players to watch?
Read on for game previews, recaps of what went down last night, and the Three Stars of the Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 1 | 3 p.m. ET, ESPN
These two teams split the regular-season series with two wins apiece; notably, all four of those games were played before Devils star Jack Hughes sustained a season-ending injury. The Hurricanes were led in scoring this season by Finland native Sebastian Aho (29 goals, 45 assists), while Sweden’s Jesper Bratt was the Devils’ leading scorer (21 goals, 67 assists). The two teams’ most recent postseason clash occurred in 2023, which the Canes won 4-1.
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 1 | 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The opening skirmish in the Battle of Ontario is the first postseason appearance for the Senators since 2017 — and the first ever for Ottawa captain Brady Tkachuk. On the other side, this will be the Maple Leafs’ ninth consecutive playoff appearance — with just one series win to show for it. Toronto has had its scoring prowess vanish in past postseasons, so leading scorer Mitch Marner (27 goals, 75 assists) & Co. will hope to reverse that trend. And while Toronto is the favorite in the series, Ottawa won all three regular-season games between the teams.
Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights
Game 1 | 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Sunday’s nightcap sees the wild-card Wild face one of the more complete teams in the West. Newly signed Minnesota defenseman Zeev Buium — fresh off a run to the NCAA Frozen Four final with the University of Denver — didn’t see action in the regular-season finale; how much will he be deployed in this series? The Knights will come at the Wild in waves, led by center Jack Eichel, who earned some Hart Trophy votes in the final edition of ESPN’s NHL Awards Watch. Vegas won all three regular-season games between the two clubs, by an aggregate score of 12-4.
Arda’s Three Stars of Saturday
A goal and two assists for Connor, who kept the Jets’ offense soaring in a game that set the tone for Winnipeg in this series — including a third period comeback. This team is still motivated by a five-game first-round exit last postseason, and they also want to keep the Presidents’ Trophy vibes going.
One of the best players of the game, and he showed up Saturday. Three points in Game 1 (on the road, no less), including the eventual game-winning goal and an empty-netter to help the Avalanche take the early lead in the series.
The chemistry between Scheifele and Connor was on display. The center finished with three points in Game 1, including a great play to get Connor the puck late in the third period on the game-winning goal.
Saturday’s results
Winnipeg Jets 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Jets lead series 1-0
A furious first period included a pair of goals for both teams, as the clubs elected to throw haymakers at the start of the series instead of patiently reading their opponents. The Blues carried a 3-2 lead into the third after a second-period tally from Jordan Kyrou, but the Jets took over the third — first with the momentum in front of a “White Out” crowd, and then with a trio of goals. Alex Iafallo had the game-tying score at 9:18 of the third, followed by the game-winner by Kyle Connor with 1:36 left and an empty-net goal by Adam Lowry to put the game away.
1:30
Jets score 5 goals in a thrilling Game 1 win over the Blues
The Jets best the Blues 5-3 in Game 1 of their playoff series.
Colorado Avalanche 5, Dallas Stars 2
Avs lead series 1-0
Unlike Saturday’s earlier game, these two contenders started with a 0-0 first period. But from the second period onward, it was all Avalanche. Artturi Lehkonen opened the scoring with one of the most unique goals in memory, with the puck going in off of his skate and over Jake Oettinger‘s shoulder — the play was ruled a good goal upon review. Nathan MacKinnon added a power-play tally after Roope Hintz high-sticked him to push it to 2-0 and the Avs never looked back. Although Hintz scored a power-play goal of his own in the third, the Avs got goals from Devon Toews, an empty-netter from MacKinnon and a final tally from Charlie Coyle.
2:01
Avs make easy work of Stars in dominant Game 1 win
The Avalanche put five goals past the Stars to take a 1-0 series lead in dominant fashion.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business3 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway