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House prices fell by 3.4% year-on-year in May – the biggest annual fall in nearly 14 years, according to one of the UK’s biggest mortgage lenders.

The drop is the biggest since July 2009, when an annual fall of 6.2% was recorded, Nationwide said.

Data from the building society also showed a month-on-month decline of 0.1% in May, with the average cost of a UK home now said to be £260,736.

Nationwide had said there were tentative signs of a recovery in the market in a report last month.

Its index for April reported a 0.4% rise in monthly prices, while the annual rate saw an improvement from -3.1% in March to -2.7%.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said the latest data “largely reflects base effects with prices broadly flat over the month after taking account of seasonal effects”.

But he added: “Average prices remain 4% below their August 2022 peak.

“Recent Bank of England data had shown some signs of recovery in housing market activity, although the number of mortgages approved for house purchase in March was still around 20% below pre-pandemic levels.

“Moreover, headwinds to the housing market look set to strengthen in the near term.

“While consumer price inflation did slow in April, it was a much smaller decline than most analysts had expected.”

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Mr Gardner said expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates again, along with projections that they will remain higher for longer, would likely renew upward pressure on mortgage rates.

But he thinks there are reasons to be hopeful about the affordability of homes in the long run.

He added: “Nevertheless, in our view a relatively soft landing remains the most likely outcome since labour market conditions remain solid and household balance sheets appear in relatively good shape.

“While activity is likely to remain subdued in the near term, healthy rates of nominal income growth, together with modestly lower house prices, should help to improve housing affordability over time.”

Property market facing problems as ‘storms clouds gather’

Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at investment platform Bestinvest, was more pessimistic.

She said: “While the start of the year saw an uptick in market activity amid falling mortgage rates and a robust labour market, storm clouds are gathering once again as interest rates and gilt yields edge ever higher.”

She added: “With the markets now betting on more rate hikes ahead, with interest rates potentially peaking at 5.5% – or worse, higher – as the Bank of England looks to win the battle to tame inflation, this causes problems for the property market.

“The changing interest rate expectations have led to big movements in the bond markets, and as bond yields rise so do swap rates, which lenders use to price home loans.

“It means borrowers must adjust to even higher mortgage rates in addition to persistently high living costs and rising taxes.

“Over the past week, hundreds of residential and buy-to-let mortgages have been pulled from the market as lenders reassess their offers.”

Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Nationwide’s data for May suggested buyers “are struggling with affordability”.

She added: “Other timely measures also are pretty downbeat. While our seasonally adjusted version of Rightmove’s measure rose by 1.4% in May, it shows asking prices, not the final price the seller accepts.

“Sellers probably are raising their initial asking price in order to achieve a final price they are comfortable with… Looking ahead, we think the downward trend in house prices has a little further to run.”

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Christmas food price shock looms, chancellor warned

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Christmas food price shock looms, chancellor warned

Food inflation will rise to 6% by the end of the year – posing a “significant challenge” to household budgets in the run-up to Christmas, industry leaders have predicted.

The British Retail Consortium is warning that the chancellor risks “fanning the flames of inflation” if she hikes taxes in the coming budget.

Despite intense price competition between supermarket chains, the BRC has sounded the alarm over the pace of grocery price hikes.

As of this month, food inflation has risen 4% year on year – its highest level since February 2024.

The BRC said this increase is linked to global factors, such as high demand and crop struggles.

Beef, chicken and tea prices are among those that have risen the most this year – but some of the blame is being laid squarely at the chancellor’s door too.

The BRC said it was inevitable that a £7bn burden, through changes to employers’ national insurance contributions and minimum pay rules after last October’s budget, had been partly passed on to customers in the form of higher prices.

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Will we see tax rises in next budget?

It published the results of a survey of retail industry finance chiefs to illustrate its point – that nerves about what Ms Reeves’s second budget could bring were not helping companies invest in either new employment or prices.

Business was promised it would be spared additional pain after it was put on the hook for the bulk of the chancellor’s tax-raising measures last year.

However, speculation is now rife over who will feel the pain this autumn as she juggles a deterioration in the public finances.

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Options for wealth tax

A widening black hole is estimated at around £20bn.

The cost of servicing government debt has risen since the last budget, while U-turns on welfare reforms and winter fuel payment cuts have made her job even harder – making further tax-raising measures inevitable.

The survey of chief financial officers for the BRC showed the biggest current fear ahead was for the “tax and regulatory burden”.

Two-thirds of the CFOs predicted further price rises in the coming year, at a time when the headline rate inflation already remains stuck way above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

It currently stands at 3.6%.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: “Retail was squarely in the firing line of the last budget, with the industry hit by £7bn in new costs and taxes.

“Retailers have done everything they can to shield their customers from higher costs, but given their slim margins and the rising cost of employing staff, price rises were inevitable.

“The consequences are now being felt by households as many struggle to cope with the rising cost of their weekly shop.

“It is up to the chancellor to decide whether to fan the flames of inflation, or to support the everyday economy by backing the high street and the local jobs they provide.”

She concluded: “Retail accounts for 5% of the economy yet currently pays 7.4% of business taxes and a whopping 21% of all business rates.

“It is vital the upcoming reforms offer a meaningful reduction in retailers’ rates bill, and ensures no store pays more as a result of the changes.”

The Treasury has been approached for comment.

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US Federal Reserve defies calls from Donald Trump to cut interest rate

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US Federal Reserve defies calls from Donald Trump to cut interest rate

The Federal Reserve has defied calls from US President Donald Trump for a cut to the interest rate by leaving it unchanged.

The decision means it has an effective rate of 4.3%, where it has remained after the central bank, known as the Fed, reduced it three times last year.

“We’re keeping the rates high, and it’s hurting people from buying houses,” Mr Trump told reporters. “All because of the Fed.”

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Mr Trump has repeatedly been asked whether he would fire Fed chair Jerome Powell if he failed to heed his demand to cut the rate.

In June, the US president labelled Mr Powell a “stupid person” after the Fed decided not to change rates. Then less than two weeks later, in a further attack, he said the Fed’s chair should “ashamed” and would “love” him to resign.

The US president has spent months verbally attacking Mr Powell.

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There were clear tensions between the pair last Thursday as they toured the Federal Reserve in Washington DC, which is undergoing renovations.

When taking questions, Mr Trump said: “I’d love him to lower interest rates,” then laughed and slapped Powell’s arm.

Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
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There were clear tensions between the US President and Mr Powell during last week’s visit to the Federal Reserve. Pic: Reuters

The US president also challenged him, in front of reporters, about an alleged overspend on the renovations and produced paperwork to prove his point. Mr Powell shook his head as Trump made the claim.

When Mr Trump was asked what he would do as a real estate mogul if this happened to one of his projects, he said he’d fire his project manager – seemingly in reference to Mr Powell.

Donald Trump challenges Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about the cost of renovations
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Donald Trump challenged Mr Powell in front of reporters. Pic: Reuters

Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.

The Fed has expressed concern about the impact of Mr Trump’s signature economic policy of implementing new tariffs, taxes on imports to the US.

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On Wednesday, the president said he was still negotiating with India on trade after announcing the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country from Friday.

Mr Trump also signed an executive order on Wednesday implementing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff amount to 50%, excluding certain products, including oil and precious metals.

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The committee which sets rates voted 9 to 2 to keep the benchmark rate steady, the two dissenters were appointees of President Trump who believe monetary policy is too tight.

In a policy statement to explain their decision, the Federal Reserve said that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated” but growth “moderated in the first half of the year,” possibly bolstering the case to lower rates at a future meeting.

Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, described the rate decision as a “kind of a nothing burger” and it was “widely expected”.

Tony Welch, chief investment officer at SignatureFD, agreed that it was “broadly as expected”. He added: “That explains why you’re not seeing a lot of movement in the market right now because there’s nothing that’s surprising.”

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Apollo charges in for stake in £7bn petrol retailer Motor Fuel Group

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Apollo charges in for stake in £7bn petrol retailer Motor Fuel Group

The investment giant Apollo Global Management is close to snapping up a stake in Motor Fuel Group (MFG), one of Britain’s biggest petrol forecourt empires, in a deal valuing it about £7bn.

Sky News has learnt that Apollo could announce as soon as Thursday that it has agreed to buy a large minority stake in MFG from Clayton Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), its current majority-owner.

The transaction will come after several months of talks involving CD&R and a range of prospective investors in a company which is rapidly expanding its presence in the electric vehicle charging infrastructure arena.

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Banking sources said there had been a “large appetite” to invest in the next phase of MFG’s growth, with CD&R having built the company from a mid-sized industry player over the course of more than a decade.

Lazard and Royal Bank of Canada are understood to be advising on the deal.

A stake of roughly 25-30% in MFG has been expected to change hands during the process, with Apollo’s investment said to be broadly in that range.

MFG is the largest independent forecourt operator in the UK, having grown from 360 sites at the point of CD&R’s acquisition of the company.

It trades under a number of brands, including Esso and Shell.

CD&R, which also owns the supermarket chain Morrisons, united MFG’s petrol forecourt businesses with that of the grocer in a £2.5bn transaction, which completed nearly 18 months ago.

MFG now comprises roughly 1,200 sites across Britain, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of about £700m anticipated in this financial year.

It is now focused on its role in the energy transition, with hundreds of electric vehicle charging points installed across its network, and growing its high-margin foodservice offering.

MFG has outlined plans to invest £400m in EV charging, and is now the second-largest ultra-rapid player in the UK – which delivers 100 miles of range in ten minutes – with close to 1,000 chargers.

It aims to grow that figure to 3,000 by 2030.

CD&R, which declined to comment on Wednesday afternoon, will retain a controlling stake in MFG after any stake sale, while Morrisons also holds a 20% interest in the company.

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Bankers expect that the minority deal with Apollo will be followed a couple of years later with an initial public offering on the London stock market.

CD&R invested in MFG in 2015, making its investment a long-term one by the standards of most private equity holding periods.

The sale of a large minority stake at a £7bn enterprise valuation will crystallise a positive return for the US-based buyout firm.

CD&R and its investors have already been paid hundreds of millions of pounds in dividends from MFG, having seen its earnings grow 14-fold since the original purchase.

Morrisons’ rival, Asda, has undertaken a similar transaction with its petrol forecourts, with EG Group acquiring the Leeds-based grocer’s forecourt network.

EG Group, which along with Asda is controlled by private equity firm TDR Capital, is now being prepared for a listing in the US.

Apollo declined to comment.

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