EV startup Rivian’s (RIVN) stock price is down over 91% from its all-time high set shortly after going public on the Nasdaq exchange in 2021. With share prices falling, Rivian may be at risk of losing its spot in the Nasqaq 100 index.
Rivian stock sell-off
After going public in November 2021 with backing from Ford and Amazon, Rivian held the largest initial public offering (IPO) for an American company since Facebook in 2012.
Valued at over $100 billion after its debut, the hype pushed Rivian stock price to over $170 a share within a week. However, since then, Rivian’s stock has been stuck in what seems to be a never-ending downward spiral.
Despite ramping production from 1,000 EVs built by the end of 2021 to 24,337 last year, Rivian’s stock continued to sell off.
The Federal Reserve moving from easing the economy through the pandemic to suddenly fighting inflation resulted in interest rates rising at the fastest pace in over four decades.
Unprofitable growth companies, including EV stocks like Rivian, were among the hardest hit as investors fled for safer assets.
Rivian stock has plunged from an all-time high of over $172 per share to around $15 today, down 91%. According to JP Morgan Securities, it may be enough to lose its place in the Nasdaq 100.
Will Rivian stock lose its Nasdaq 100 place?
The Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index comprising the 100 largest nonfinancial companies listed on the exchange. Rivian joined the index this past December as part of its yearly rebalancing.
JP Morgan analyst Min Moon (via Automotive News) wrote in a note this week that the Nasdaq 100 generally removes the smallest member of the group if the company is weighted at less than 0.1% for two straight months.
Nasdaq 100 weighting values May 1, 2023 (Source: Nasdaq)
Moon noted that Rivian was below the 0.1% mark as of April 28 and May 31, leading her to believe the EV maker will be kicked out of the index as early as this month (the third Friday in June).
According to Moon, Rivian can be replaced by ON Semiconductor, which is ranked as the top eligible company.
The news comes after bullish analyst Alexander Potter of Piper Sandler downgraded Rivian stock in April, dropping his price target from $63 a share to $15.
Electrek’s Take
Losing its placement in the Nasdaq would be another setback for Rivian. Although Rivian was one of the few EV makers to reaffirm its annual production goal of 50,000 after Q1, the market is what’s spooking investors.
With Rivian spending roughly twice as much to build each vehicle as it sells it for and interest rates rising, investors are hesitant to jump back in.
CEO RJ Scarinje says driving profit is equally essential to ramping production right now as the EV maker has implemented several cost-cutting measures.
Rivian says its second-generation models (R2), due in 2026, are designed to simplify production and improve margins.
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Oil prices eased on Tuesday as market participants weighed the possibility of an OPEC+ decision to further increase its crude oil output at a meeting later this week.
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U.S. crude oil futures rose about 4% on Monday after OPEC+ increased production at a steady rate, easing investor fears that the group might boost output even faster.
West Texas Intermediate futures rose $2.53, or 4.16%, to $63.32 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent was up $2.34, or 3.73%, at $65.12 per barrel.
The eight producers in OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive month the group has boosted output at that rate.
“There were market concerns of a faster unwind process,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, told clients in a note Saturday. “For now, the oil market remains tight, indicating it can absorb additional barrels,” Staunovo said.
The electric motorcycle market is a small and highly interconnected one, with a limited amount of suppliers and an even smaller number of actual honest-to-goodness motorcycle manufacturers. While Covid-era progress led to a series of highly-funded rapid advancements and flashy announcements, the last few years have been hard on the industry as funding and excitement have both dwindled, resulting in a smaller number of big releases. So it makes sense that people would jump at news that Honda is now producing its first electric motorcycle and that you can already buy it. The only problem is that none of that is true – finally some real fake news.
In the last few days, a number of news outlets ran with a story claiming Honda was now producing and selling its first ever electric motorcycle, a bike known as the E-VO. While some articles presented a fairly grounded and accurate analysis of the situation, others jumped on the more clickbaity bandwagon.
Like many rumors, the story does have some truth to it. There is an interesting-looking cafe racer-styled E-VO bike that was just announced, and its logo does partially include a red Honda badge, but that’s where things start to go awry as some articles played a bit fast and loose with the facts.
The main issues with the story heard ’round the internet are that 1) Honda has already produced multiple electric motorcycles, 2) the E-VO isn’t really a Honda, and 3) you can’t actually buy the bike, at least not the way many headlines would have you believe.
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The Chinese launch of the Honda-Wuyang E-VO
To be fair, even Electrek wasn’t spared, with its own story repeating several dubious claims seen elsewhere around the internet, among other smaller mistakes such as a strange swipe at LiveWire for not producing DC fast-charging electric motorcycles, which it famously does.
But let’s break down each of the errors or flashy clickbait headlines that duped many journalists and electric motorcycle fans alike.
The first major issue is that the premise is wrong. Honda has built multiple electric motorcycles in the past, though generally smaller designs with step-through frames. The E-VO would be a new design direction, taking on an eye-catching cafe racer design, but let’s not forget that models like the all-electric Honda PCX Electric were launched back in 2018. In fact, Visordown strangely mislabeled a photo of a PCX Electric, referring to it as an E-VO in its own article a few days ago. (And to be fair, not everyone whiffed on this one, with outlets like RideApart and CycleWorld giving even-handed and accurate coverage to Honda’s e-moto efforts).
Second, this motorcycle isn’t even a Honda. If you look closer at the badging, you’ll see it’s labeled as “Wuyang Honda” with the first word obviously printed much smaller in the logo to obscure it in favor of Honda’s much stronger brand reputation. To put it simply, the E-VO is produced by the Chinese company Wuyang, in which Honda invested in as part of a joint venture. Wuyang-Honda is a Chinese company owned by the major Chinese automaker GAC. It does produce some Honda-developed motorcycles for the Chinese market (like the CB series, CBR, etc.), but it also produces its own domestic market-only models. The latter is what the E-VO is. It’s not a Honda and it’s not produced by Honda. It’s produced by Wuyang-Honda, which is a Chinese company partially funded by the Japanese company Honda to make money from the Chinese market. It’s similar to how Ducati doesn’t really make those Ducati electric bicycles, but rather engages in a licensing agreement that lets another company produce them and print a famous name on the side.
And that brings us to the third major issue glossed over in the E-VO launch – that you can’t really buy it. Well, some people can, but not you. At least, not unless you happen to be Chinese or living in China. As mentioned above, this isn’t a Honda motorcycle that you can buy at a Honda dealer. It’s a Wuyang motorcycle that was recently launched in China and only sold in China. It wasn’t designed for export and doesn’t meet any other international regulations or safety standards because it wasn’t designed for any other markets outside of China.
Electrek’s Take
I’ve been a fan of electric motorcycles for a long time, riding and covering them with excitement as I’ve watched the industry progress. I talk the talk and I walk the walk. I don’t even own a car, as my family gets around entirely on electric motorcycles, e-scooters, and e-bikes. I don’t intend to unfairly call out other news outlets or even my own colleagues, but I do think that accuracy in reporting on such a nascent industry is important.
Accuracy in reporting isn’t just about keeping the industry well-informed but also ensuring realistic expectations among the public. Just like all of those stories popping up a few years ago to the effect of “GM is producing a $14,000 electric pickup truck” turned out to be clickbait (they were electric mini-trucks produced in China, for the Chinese market, by Chinese companies in which GM invested), the E-VO has also turned into something of a white whale. For years, riders have begged major manufacturers like Honda to get on board with electric motorcycles. And so when there’s even an inkling of progress on that front, the story can get ahead of itself.
That isn’t to say that Honda won’t ever produce a full-sized e-moto or street bike. Perhaps the E-VO will sell well in China and Honda will look favorably upon Wuyang’s work there. But the moment when an honest-to-goodness Honda electric motorcycle lands is still years away, and no amount of wishful thinking or creative writing is going to change that.
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The French are saying “non, merci” to Tesla, as sales crashed to just 700 units in May – a level not seen in more than three years.
The Model Y changeover was clearly not the problem.
Last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk claimed that the company has “no demand problem” and that even though Europe is its weakest market, “everyone is struggling in Europe, there’s no exception.”
France has just released its car registration data for May, confirming that the auto market is down 12%. However, Tesla’s sales were down even more than the rest of the market.
Tesla delivered only 721 vehicles in France in May – down 67% compared to the same period last year.
In Q1, Tesla blamed its poor performance on the lack of Model Y availability due to the design changeover, but it doesn’t have this excuse in Q2, which is now tracking below Q1 in Europe.
May was Tesla’s worst month of deliveries it has had in the last three years. It’s also even worse than any month of deliveries in the first quarter, despite the new Model Y now being in full production in Gigafactory Berlin and available in France.
Electrek’s Take
I’ll write a more comprehensive post about Tesla’s sales in Europe once we have data from more countries in May, but it’s not looking good.
Tesla blamed its terrible performance in Q1 on the Model Y changeover, but we are past that in Q2. Yet, April was worse than January, and now, it looks like May is going to be below February in the whole of Europe.
The only positive market so far is Norway, and that’s probably due to some of its large existing base of owners in the country updating to the new Model Y, but it will be interesting to see if it’s sustainable through out the rest of the year. I doubt it. Tesla benefited from the Model Y changeover, but I expect the brand damage will also be felt in the popular EV market.
This result in France in May is particularly interesting because it is even worse than April. I literally have to go back to Q2 2022 to find a quarter when Tesla had a worse second month of a quarter in France.
It is starting to look like demand collapse.
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