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NewEdge Wealth chief investment officer Cameron Dawson discusses seasonal stretch as investors eye the presidential cycle for stock guidance on ‘Making Money with Charles Payne.’

U.S. job growth unexpectedly surged in May, as the labor market remained surprisingly resilient even in the face of rising interest rates, declining economic growth and chronic inflation.

Employers added 339,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, easily beating the 190,000 jobs forecast by Refinitiv economists. That also marks an increase from April, when payrolls increased by an upwardly revised 294,000. 

At the same time, a separate report based on a smaller survey of households offered a slightly different picture of the labor market. The report indicated the unemployment rate climbed to 3.7% from 3.4%, even though the labor force participation rate remained unchanged last month. It was the highest jobless rate since October 2022 and the biggest increase since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wage growth also cooled last month, with average hourly earnings – a key measure of inflation – rising 0.3%, in line with estimates. On an annual basis, wages rose 4.3% in May.

MAJORITY OF WORKERS REGRET QUITTING DURING ‘GREAT RESIGNATION'

The Federal Reserve indicated it is closely watching the report for evidence the labor market is finally softening after more than a year of interest rate hikes. 

Over the past week, some central bank officials have signaled they may skip another rate hike at their meeting that begins June 13 as they examine how tighter monetary policy is affecting the economy. However, some officials have hinted they are open to raising rates for the 11th straight time.

THE HOUSING RECESSION ISN'T OVER YET

The surprisingly strong job gains in May, when coupled with the spike in unemployment and the slowdown in wage increases, may provide fodder for both sides of the debate.

"The tug of war taking place in the economy is on full display in today’s mixed job report and keeps pressure on the Fed to remain hawkish, even if it gives them a reason to pause later this month," said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office.

Construction workers on a job site on May 5, 2023, in Miami. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Job gains were broad-based last month, with the biggest gains in professional and business services (64,000), government (56,000), health care (52,000), leisure and hospitality (48,000) and construction (25,000).

Still, the outlook for the labor market remains hazy. 

A spate of bank collapses this spring is threatening to further restrict economic growth and hiring by tightening lending standards and making it more difficult to acquire a loan. Borrowers may have to agree to more stringent terms like high interest rates as banks try to reduce the financial risk on their end. Fewer loans, in turn, would lead to less big-ticket spending by consumers and businesses.

SILVER LINING OF HIGHER INTEREST RATES: SAVINGS ACCOUNT RATES

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that tighter credit conditions are likely to weigh on economic activity, including hiring and inflation. 

Now Hiring signs are displayed in front of restaurants in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, on March 19, 2022. (Photo by STEFANI REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

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There has also been a wave of notable layoffs over the past few months, and the list continues to grow. Amazon, Apple, Meta, Lyft, Facebook, Google, IBM, Morgan Stanley and Twitter are among the companies letting workers go.

For many economists, the possibility of unemployment rising has become a question of when, not if.

The central bank previously projected in March that the jobless rate will climb substantially higher to 4.6% and remain elevated in 2024 and 2025 as steeper rates continue to take their toll by pushing up borrowing costs. That could amount to more than 1 million job losses.

Hiking interest rates tend to create higher rates on consumer and business loans, which slow the economy by forcing employers to cut back on spending.

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European leaders to meet in Ukraine for ‘coalition of the willing’ talks – and issue call to Russia

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European leaders to meet in Ukraine for 'coalition of the willing' talks - and issue call to Russia

Sir Keir Starmer will join other European leaders in Kyiv on Saturday for talks on the “coalition of the willing”.

The prime minister is attending the event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

It will be the first time the leaders of the four countries will travel to Ukraine at the same time – on board a train to Kyiv – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Follow latest updates on the Ukraine war

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets with French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on board a train to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv where all three will hold meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, May 9, 2025. Stefan Rousseau/Pool via REUTERS
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Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kiev. Pic: Reuters

Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for the coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement voicing support for Ukraine and calling on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.

Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
Image:
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP

“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.

“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”

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Putin’s Victory Day parade explained

The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.

But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.

“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.

“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”

Read more:
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire

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The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.

They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.

This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.

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The ‘tricky balancing act’ facing Starmer over US trade deal – and the real challenge to come

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The 'tricky balancing act' facing Starmer over US trade deal - and the real challenge to come

If you want a very visual representation of the challenges of transatlantic diplomacy in 2025, look no further than Oslo City Hall.

Its marbled mural-clad walls played home to a European military summit on Friday.

In December – as it does every year – it will host the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony. It’s an award Donald Trump has said he deserves to win.

But while the leaders gathering in the Norwegian capital may not say it publicly, they all have a very different perspective to the US president on how to win the peace – particularly when it comes to Ukraine.

Sir Keir Starmer at a summit in Oslo. Pic: PA
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer at a summit in Oslo. Pic: PA

So far, Sir Keir Starmer has managed to paper over these foreign policy gaps between the US and Europe with warm words and niceties.

But squaring the two sides off on trade may be more difficult.

The US-UK deal announced on Thursday contained no obvious red flags that could scupper deeper trade links with the EU.

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PM defends UK-US trade deal

However, that’s in part because it was more a reaction and remedy to Mr Trump’s tariff regime than a proactive attempt to meld the two countries together.

Laced with party-political venom, yes, but the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is getting at something when she says this agreement is “not even a trade deal, it’s a tariff deal and we are in a worse position now than we were six weeks ago”.

There may be more to come though.

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How good is the UK-US deal?

The government will talk up the possible benefits, but there are risks too.

Take the Digital Services Tax – much hated by the Trump White House as an unfair levy on US tech firms.

Despite the apparent pitch-rolling from the government, that was left untouched this week.

But asked to rule out changes in the future, the prime minister was non-committal, simply saying the current deal “doesn’t cover that”.

Read more:
Key details of UK-US trade deal
Not the broad trade deal of Brexiteer dreams – analysis

For trade expert David Henig, the potential flashpoints in the transatlantic Venn diagram Downing Street is trying to draw around food standards, digital regulation and services.

“It is a tricky balancing act, at this stage it looks like the UK will go more with the EU on goods regulations, but perhaps a little bit more with the US on services regulations,” he said.

For veterans of the post-2016 Brexit battles, this may all sound like Labour embracing the Boris Johnson-era mantra of “cakeism” – or trying to have it both ways.

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It’s ironic indeed, given Sir Keir is a politician who supported the Remain campaign and then called for a second referendum.

But what matters now is what works – not for Downing Street but for the swathes of voters who have abandoned Labour since they took office.

That’s why the prime minister was once again trying to humanise this week’s trade deals.

These are agreements, he said, that would be measured in the “many thousands of jobs” they would safeguard across the country.

That’s the real challenge now, taking the work done in the marbled halls of the world’s capitals and convincing people at home why it matters to them.

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European leaders to meet in Ukraine for ‘coalition of the willing’ talks – and issue call to Russia

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European leaders to meet in Ukraine for 'coalition of the willing' talks - and issue call to Russia

Sir Keir Starmer will join other European leaders in Kyiv on Saturday for talks on the “coalition of the willing”.

The prime minister is attending the event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

It will be the first time the leaders of the four countries will travel to Ukraine at the same time – on board a train to Kyiv – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Follow latest updates on the Ukraine war

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets with French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on board a train to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv where all three will hold meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, May 9, 2025. Stefan Rousseau/Pool via REUTERS
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz travelling in the saloon car of a special train to Kiev. Pic: Reuters

Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for the coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement voicing support for Ukraine and calling on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.

Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP
Image:
Sir Keir and Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting in March. Pic: AP

“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.

“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Putin’s Victory Day parade explained

The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.

But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.

“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.

“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”

Read more:
Russia’s VE Day parade felt like celebration of war
Michael Clarke Q&A on Ukraine war
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire

Follow The World
Follow The World

Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday

Tap to follow

The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.

They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.

This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.

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