Russia may have stepped up the frequency and intensity of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s capital, but Kyiv’s air defences appear to be holding firm.
So what is the military benefit of targeting urban populations, and why is Vladimir Putin doing so?
Historically, wars were fought to destroy the enemy’s army and occupy its capital. Mr Putin remains focused on destroying Ukraine’s ability to fight (just witness the grinding war of attrition in Bakhmut) and occupying Kyiv by laying it under aerial siege.
But will this onslaught help the Russian war effort, or is it simply the actions of an angry and frustrated autocrat?
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1:01
Explosions heard in Kyiv
Russia tried to take Kyiv very early in the war (remember the 40-mile convoy of military equipment), but although that attempt failed, Mr Putin will still see the Ukrainian capital – the seat of power – as the ultimate prize.
Most military analysts believe the objectives of Mr Putin’s so-called special military operation remain two-fold: securing Crimea; and seizing the Donbas.
Mindful that military resources are always limited, Russia objective should be laser-focused on these objectives.
Having culminated in Bakhmut, Russia should now be leveraging its “superpower” advantage to target Ukrainian resupply lines and its preparations for the forthcoming offensive.
It will be very difficult for Ukraine to hide its military preparations from Russian satellites; besides, Russia will have a multitude of spies operating within Ukraine that would be able to provide real-time targeting information to inform Russia’s ballistic missile capability.
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Instead, in apparent response to Ukraine’s “temerity” in conducting drone attacks against Moscow, Mr Putin is targeting his limited supplies of missiles at the civilian population of Kyiv.
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4:40
What Kyiv attacks can tell us
Has Putin made the same mistake as Hitler?
In the Second World War, Nazi Germany was preparing to invade Britain, but first Hitler had to destroy the RAF.
The Battle of Britain brought the RAF to its knees; however, in anger at the allies’ efforts to bomb German cities, Hitler took his foot off the throat of the RAF and switched to targeting London.
An irrational decision, but one which allowed the RAF to recover and helped turn the tide of the war.
Has Mr Putin – a politician with no military experience – made the same mistake by targeting Kyiv?
Russia’s imported drones: Irritating but not usually deadly
Russia is using long-range Shahed 136 drones – imported from Iran – to conduct most of the strikes against Kyiv.
These inexpensive and simple drones fly at around 100mph, and although they have a nasty punch, they are not difficult to shoot down (even if the wreckage still wrecks lives).
Image: Russian Shahed 136 drone
They are not unlike wasps in summer; irritating, and painful if they sting, but not usually deadly. Besides, few drones now get through.
Russia also continues to fire long-range ballistic missiles against Kyiv; these are usually very accurate weapons and more difficult to shoot down, but the provision of specialist Western air defence capabilities – such as US Patriot – has proven extremely effective at protecting the capital.
Image: Dash cam footage shows the moment rocket debris hit a busy road in Kyiv
Image: The aftermath of an attack in Kyiv on 30 May. Pic: AP
So why does Russia continue to waste limited supplies of expensive missiles against non-military targets?
Firstly, Ukrainian military capability is hidden, mobile, and dispersed.
A slick time-sensitive-targeting (TST) capability involves linking satellite imagery to HQ analysis, before tasking a unit to prosecute the target – and swiftly. Simple? For the Russians, no.
TST is difficult and requires great teamwork between different agencies – the West invests heavily in the people and technology required for success; Russia does not. Russia cannot conduct high-tempo TST, so instead does what it can – target civilians.
Image: People take cover at a metro station during a Russian rocket attack in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Secondly, Mr Putin does not have any military training, so strategy, doctrine and main effort are not phrases that resonate with him.
Instead, he is driven by symbolism – Bakhmut had limited military value, but Mr Putin wanted a success for his May Day celebration.
Likewise, he wants to punish President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his audacity in fighting back, but like Hitler and the Battle of Britain, Mr Putin is allowing emotion to override military strategy.
Ballistic missiles are complex weapons; Russia is currently using them up faster than they can be replaced.
The waves of missile attacks on Kyiv do not have any military benefit and are not contributing to Russia’s war ends; they are simply the actions of a frustrated leader who is seeking to vent anger at his tenacious opponent.
This lack of a ruthless focus on military objectives is a critical weakness of Russia’s military machine, which we can expect to see exploited in the coming months.
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The UK and four allies have criticised Israel’s decision to launch a new large-scale military operation in Gaza – warning it will “aggravate the catastrophic humanitarian situation” in the territory.
The foreign ministers of Britain, Australia, Germany, Italy and New Zealand said in a joint statement that the offensive will “endanger the lives of hostages” and “risk violating international humanitarian law”.
It marks another escalation in the war in Gaza, sparked by the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023.
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2:20
Can Netanyahu defeat Hamas ideology?
In their joint statement, the UK and its allies said they “strongly reject” the decision, adding: “It will endanger the lives of the hostages and further risk the mass displacement of civilians.
“The plans that the government of Israel has announced risk violating international humanitarian law. Any attempts at annexation or of settlement extension violate international law.”
The countries also called for a permanent ceasefire as “the worst-case scenario of famine is unfolding in Gaza”.
In a post on X, the Israeli prime minister’s office added: “Instead of supporting Israel’s just war against Hamas, which carried out the most horrific attack against the Jewish people since the Holocaust, Germany is rewarding Hamas terrorism by embargoing arms to Israel.”
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2:33
Inside plane dropping aid over Gaza
US ambassador hits out at Starmer
Earlier on Friday, the US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, criticised Sir Keir Starmer after he said Israel’s decision to “escalate its offensive” in Gaza is “wrong”.
Mr Huckabee wrote on X: “So Israel is expected to surrender to Hamas & feed them even though Israeli hostages are being starved? Did UK surrender to Nazis and drop food to them? Ever heard of Dresden, PM Starmer? That wasn’t food you dropped. If you had been PM then UK would be speaking German!”
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In another post around an hour later Mr Huckabee wrote: “How much food has Starmer and the UK sent to Gaza?
“@IsraeliPM has already sent 2 MILLION TONS into Gaza & none of it even getting to hostages.”
Sir Keir has pledged to recognise a Palestinian state in September unless the Israeli government meets a series of conditions towards ending the war in Gaza.
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1:22
Lammy-Vance bromance: Will it last?
Mr Vance described a “disagreement” about how the US and UK could achieve their “common objectives” in the Middle East, and said the Trump administration had “no plans to recognise a Palestinian state”.
He said: “I don’t know what it would mean to really recognise a Palestinian state given the lack of functional government there.”
Mr Vance added: “There’s a lot of common objectives here. There is some, I think, disagreement about how exactly to accomplish those common objectives, but look, it’s a tough situation.”
The UN Security Council will meet on Saturday to discuss the situation in the Middle East.
Ambassador Riyad Mansour, permanent observer of the State of Palestine to the United Nations, said earlier on Friday that a number of countries would be requesting a meeting of the UN Security Council on Israel’s plans.
Five days before he was killed by a falling aid package, father-of-two Uday al Qaraan called on world leaders to open Gaza’s borders to food – and criticised the use of airdrops.
“This isn’t aid delivery,” said the 32-year-old medic as a crowd of children rummaged through the remains of an airdrop behind him. “This is humiliation.”
Using footage from social media, satellite imagery, eyewitness testimony and flight tracking data, Sky News has examined the dangers posed by airdrops – and just how little difference they are making to Gaza’s hunger crisis.
A tangled parachute and a crowd in chaos
Based on six videos of the airdrop that killed Uday, we were able to locate the incident to a tent camp on the coast of central Gaza.
We determined that the drop occurred at approximately 11.50am on 4 August, based on metadata from these videos shared by three eyewitnesses.
Flight tracking data shows that only one aid plane, a UAE Armed Forces C-130 Hercules, was in the area at that time.
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Footage from the ground shows 12 pallets falling from the plane. The four lowest parachutes soon become tangled, and begin to fall in pairs.
As a crowd surges towards the landing zone, a gunshot rings out. Nine more follow over a 90-second period.
Sakhr al Qaraan, an eyewitness and Uday’s neighbour, says that Uday was among those running after the first pallet to land.
“He didn’t see the other pallet it was tangled up with, and it fell on him moments later,” says Sakhr.
“People ran to collect the aid in cold blood, devoid of humanity, and he suffocated under that damned blanket – under the feet of people who had lost all humanity.”
The scene descended into chaos as Palestinians, some armed, tussled over the limited food available.
By the time Uday was pulled from the crowd and rushed to hospital, it was too late.
The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to a request for comment.
Image: Medic and father-of-two Uday al Qaraan, 32, was killed on 4 August by an aid package dropped from a UAE Armed Forces plane.
Parachutes failed in half of airdrops analysed
This was not the first time that airdrops at this location had posed a threat to those on the ground.
The day before Uday was killed, the same plane had dropped aid over the site.
The footage below, shared by the UAE Armed Forces, shows the view from inside the plane. Just before the footage ends, it shows that one of the parachutes was broken.
Hisham al Armi recorded the scene from the ground. His video shows the broken parachute, as well as another that had failed completely.
Military planes dropped aid at the site on eight consecutive days between 30 July and 6 August. Sky News verified footage showing parachute failures during four of those eight airdrops.
Flight tracking data shows that almost all of the 67 aid flights over that period followed a similar route along the coast, which is densely packed with tent camps.
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An Israel Defence Forces (IDF) official told Sky News that the airdrops are routed along the coast, because this is where much of Gaza’s population is now concentrated.
An IDF spokesperson added the Israeli military “takes all possible measures to mitigate the harm to uninvolved civilians”.
Hisham al Armi told Sky News he is grateful to the countries that donated the aid, but “the negatives outweigh the positives”.
“Fighting occurs when aid is dropped, and some people are killed … due to the crush and parachutes.”
Other dangers are also posed by the airdrops.
The footage below, taken on 29 July, shows Palestinians venturing into the sea in order to chase aid that had drifted over the water. The IDF has banned Palestinians from entering the sea.
One woman, a relative of Uday who witnessed his death, described the airdrops as the “airborne humiliation of the people”.
“There is not enough aid for them,” she said. “It creates problems among the people, and some are killed just to obtain a little aid. And most people don’t receive any aid, they remain hungry for days.”
Between 27 July and 1 August, Gaza received an estimated 1,505 tonnes of food aid per day via land routes – 533 tonnes short of what the UN’s food security agency says is needed to meet basic needs.
Based on flight tracking data, we estimated that airdrops added just 38 tonnes daily, 7% of the shortfall.
“The quantities involved are minuscule in terms of the scale of the need,” says Sam Rose, Gaza director of UNRWA, the UN agency previously responsible for distributing food in the territory.
UNRWA claims it has enough food stationed outside of Gaza to feed the population for three months, but that Israel has not allowed the agency to bring in any food since 2 March.
“We should be dealing with that rather than introducing something else which is costly, dangerous, undignified and somehow legitimises … the access regime by suggesting that we found a way round it through airdrops,” Rose says.
COGAT, the Israeli agency responsible for coordinating aid deliveries, referred Sky News to a statement in which it said there is “no limit on the amount of aid” allowed into Gaza.
An IDF spokesperson also denied restricting aid, and said the Israeli military “will continue to work in order to improve the humanitarian response in the Gaza Strip, along with the international community”.
In his interview five days before he was killed, Uday al Qaraan appealed to world leaders to open Gaza’s borders.
“What would happen if they just let the aid in?” he asked. “If you can fly planes and drop aid from the sky then you can break the siege, you can open a land crossing.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.