Vladimir Putin’s attacks on Kyiv show his emotions are overriding military strategy
Russia may have stepped up the frequency and intensity of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s capital, but Kyiv’s air defences appear to be holding firm.
So what is the military benefit of targeting urban populations, and why is Vladimir Putin doing so?
Historically, wars were fought to destroy the enemy’s army and occupy its capital. Mr Putin remains focused on destroying Ukraine’s ability to fight (just witness the grinding war of attrition in Bakhmut) and occupying Kyiv by laying it under aerial siege.
But will this onslaught help the Russian war effort, or is it simply the actions of an angry and frustrated autocrat?
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Explosions heard in Kyiv
Russia tried to take Kyiv very early in the war (remember the 40-mile convoy of military equipment), but although that attempt failed, Mr Putin will still see the Ukrainian capital – the seat of power – as the ultimate prize.
Most military analysts believe the objectives of Mr Putin’s so-called special military operation remain two-fold: securing Crimea; and seizing the Donbas.
Mindful that military resources are always limited, Russia objective should be laser-focused on these objectives.
Having culminated in Bakhmut, Russia should now be leveraging its “superpower” advantage to target Ukrainian resupply lines and its preparations for the forthcoming offensive.
It will be very difficult for Ukraine to hide its military preparations from Russian satellites; besides, Russia will have a multitude of spies operating within Ukraine that would be able to provide real-time targeting information to inform Russia’s ballistic missile capability.
Instead, in apparent response to Ukraine’s “temerity” in conducting drone attacks against Moscow, Mr Putin is targeting his limited supplies of missiles at the civilian population of Kyiv.
Read more:
Why is Russia attacking Kyiv instead of military targets?
Alex Crawford describes scene in Kyiv after Russian attack
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What Kyiv attacks can tell us
Has Putin made the same mistake as Hitler?
In the Second World War, Nazi Germany was preparing to invade Britain, but first Hitler had to destroy the RAF.
The Battle of Britain brought the RAF to its knees; however, in anger at the allies’ efforts to bomb German cities, Hitler took his foot off the throat of the RAF and switched to targeting London.
An irrational decision, but one which allowed the RAF to recover and helped turn the tide of the war.
Has Mr Putin – a politician with no military experience – made the same mistake by targeting Kyiv?
Russia is using long-range Shahed 136 drones – imported from Iran – to conduct most of the strikes against Kyiv.
These inexpensive and simple drones fly at around 100mph, and although they have a nasty punch, they are not difficult to shoot down (even if the wreckage still wrecks lives).
Russian Shahed 136 drone
They are not unlike wasps in summer; irritating, and painful if they sting, but not usually deadly. Besides, few drones now get through.
Russia also continues to fire long-range ballistic missiles against Kyiv; these are usually very accurate weapons and more difficult to shoot down, but the provision of specialist Western air defence capabilities – such as US Patriot – has proven extremely effective at protecting the capital.
Dash cam footage shows the moment rocket debris hit a busy road in Kyiv
The aftermath of an attack in Kyiv on 30 May. Pic: AP
Why is Russia wasting missiles on non-military targets?
Firstly, Ukrainian military capability is hidden, mobile, and dispersed.
A slick time-sensitive-targeting (TST) capability involves linking satellite imagery to HQ analysis, before tasking a unit to prosecute the target – and swiftly. Simple? For the Russians, no.
TST is difficult and requires great teamwork between different agencies – the West invests heavily in the people and technology required for success; Russia does not. Russia cannot conduct high-tempo TST, so instead does what it can – target civilians.
People take cover at a metro station during a Russian rocket attack in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Secondly, Mr Putin does not have any military training, so strategy, doctrine and main effort are not phrases that resonate with him.
Instead, he is driven by symbolism – Bakhmut had limited military value, but Mr Putin wanted a success for his May Day celebration.
Likewise, he wants to punish President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his audacity in fighting back, but like Hitler and the Battle of Britain, Mr Putin is allowing emotion to override military strategy.
Ballistic missiles are complex weapons; Russia is currently using them up faster than they can be replaced.
The waves of missile attacks on Kyiv do not have any military benefit and are not contributing to Russia’s war ends; they are simply the actions of a frustrated leader who is seeking to vent anger at his tenacious opponent.
This lack of a ruthless focus on military objectives is a critical weakness of Russia’s military machine, which we can expect to see exploited in the coming months.
Donald Trump disparaged the Russian military and backed Ukraine to retake all its occupied territory in an astonishing about-turn on the war.
In a post on Truth Social, made after talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations in New York, the US president said a return to “the original borders from where this war started is very much an option”.
“I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form,” he wrote.
Mr Trump said “time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO” could help Kyv win back lost territory, and said Russia was in “economic trouble”.
He said Moscow had been “fighting aimlessly” for three-and-a-half years – and had it been a “real military power” it would have defeated Ukraine in less than a week.
“This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger’,” he added.
Mr Zelenskyy told Sky News US correspondent Mark Stone it was a “big shift” from his US counterpart.
He later admitted he was surprised by Mr Trump’s comments, telling Fox News’ Special Report he has a better relationship with the president than before.
Read more: Why emboldened Trump has changed his stance on Ukraine
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s patience not ‘infinite’
Mr Trump also appeared to pour cold water on his hopes of persuading Vladimir Putin to sign a peace deal.
Speaking to Emmanuel Macron at the UN summit, he said their relationship had turned out to be meaningless.
Just last month, Mr Trump rolled out the red carpet for the Russian president at a summit in Alaska – in a push to expedite the war’s conclusion.
Before returning to the White House, he repeatedly claimed he’d be able to end the conflict in 24 hours.
Speaking at the UN Security Council, his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, admitted ending the war had proven an “extraordinary challenge”.
He said Mr Trump had “worked on it tirelessly”, but warned Russia his patience is not “infinite”.
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Rigby to Trump: Was Putin’s Alaska invite a mistake?
The US president has previously suggested Ukraine will never be able to reclaim all the territory Russia has occupied since seizing the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
Ukraine has lost large areas of land in the east of the country.
In the Donetsk region, Russia now controls about 70% of the territory. Kyiv’s forces have been pushed back to four cities analysts have dubbed the “fortress belt”.
Moscow has partly annexed three other regions, too: Luhansk in the east, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson further west.
The situation in Ukraine on 19 September
Trump tells NATO to shoot down Russian jets in its skies
Meanwhile, Russia appears to be provoking its neighbours to the west. Last week, Estonia said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated its airspace for 12 minutes before Italian NATO jets escorted them away.
The week before, about 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO jets to shoot some of them down and the alliance to beef up its defence of Europe’s eastern flank.
While talking to Mr Zelenskyy at the UN, Mr Trump was asked by reporters whether he thought NATO should shoot down any Russian planes that entered NATO airspace.
“Yes, I do,” Mr Trump replied.
On Truth Social, he said the US would continue to supply weapons to NATO, and it was for the alliance to “do what they want with them”.
Read more:
Trump makes full-throttle assault on UN
Has Trump ‘ended seven wars’?
Mr Trump also suggested the Russian people are not aware of “what is really going on with this war”.
He added: “Most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine. Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble and this is the time for Ukraine to act.”
He has called on European and NATO allies to increase economic sanctions on Moscow.
In a joint statement following the president’s comments, G7 foreign ministers said discussions were ongoing about additional economic sanctions on Russia.
As U-turns go, it’s a game-changer.
Donald Trump has pivoted from pressing Ukraine to surrender territory to suggesting it’s able to win all its land back.
This is the man who threw Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy out of the White House in February and brought Russia’s Vladimir Putin in from the cold in Alaska last month.
So, why the handbrake turn from framing negotiations as the most practical outcome to a new-found confidence in Ukraine, when supported by its European neighbours and NATO?
Trump held talks with Zelenskyy at the UN. Pic: Reuters
Firstly, it could be the military and economic reality on the ground. Russia’s paying a high price for the war, both in manpower and finances.
Trump has acknowledged that Moscow is in “big economic trouble”, which strengthens the case for Ukraine prevailing with Western help.
Ukraine’s resilience has also shifted perceptions – the impossible now looking possible if allies remain committed.
Secondly, it could be the influence of allies. European leaders flew to Washington en masse last month to urge caution in dealings with Putin.
European NATO members have stepped up aid to Ukraine, further weakening the President’s rhetoric about America carrying the financial burden.
He’s suddenly aligning himself with European countries, endorsing the shooting down of Russian planes violating their airspace.
Thirdly, it could be more about domestic politics, with the president under bipartisan scrutiny at home over his “softly, softly” approach to Russia.
A tougher national defence posture could help him consolidate support among Republicans, while also appealing to moderates, who regard the defence of Ukraine as a test of national credibility.
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Zelenskyy on Trump’s ‘big shift’ over Ukraine
Trump versus the world
There’s another factor worth considering – Trump’s negotiating tactic. He has a long record of changing position to gain leverage.
Talk of compromise might have been the strategy for getting Ukraine and Russia into talks, but with Russia showing no willingness to compromise, his calculation shifting back to the restoration of Ukraine.
Whatever the reason for his change of heart, and whether it translates into US policy, the last three days have shown an emboldened Trump.
From his declaration of “hate” for his opponents during a memorial service for Charlie Kirk, to his sensational claim to have “found an answer on autism”, to his derision of the UN, he’s unfiltered right now.
Place him in front of a microphone or online, and it’s Trump versus the world.
Acclaimed Italian actress Claudia Cardinale, who starred in The Pink Panther and Once Upon A Time In The West, has died aged 87, according to French media reports.
The actress, who starred in more than 100 films and made-for-TV productions, died in Nemours, France, surrounded by her children, her agent told the AFP news agency.
At the age of 17 she won a beauty contest in Tunisia, where she was born to Sicilian parents, and was rewarded with a trip to the Venice Film Festival, kick-starting her acting career.
She had expected to become a schoolteacher before she entered the beauty contest.
Claudia Cardinale at the Prix Lumieres awards ceremony in Paris in January 2013. Pic: AP
Cardinale gained international fame in 1963 when she starred in both Federico Fellini’s 8-1/2 and The Leopard.
She went on to star in the comedy The Pink Panther and Sergio Leone’s Once Upon A Time In The West in 1968.
She considered 1966’s The Professionals as the best of her Hollywood films.
Read more from Sky News:
Boris Becker on life in UK’s prisons
Trump backs Ukraine to retake territory
When she was awarded a lifetime achievement at the Berlin Film Festival in 2002, she said acting had been a great career.
“I’ve lived more than 150 lives, prostitute, saint, romantic, every kind of woman, and that is marvellous to have this opportunity to change yourself,” she said.
“I’ve worked with the most important directors. They gave me everything.”
Cardinale was named a goodwill ambassador for the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation for the defence of women’s rights in 2000.
She is survived by two children.
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