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Russia may have stepped up the frequency and intensity of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s capital, but Kyiv’s air defences appear to be holding firm.

So what is the military benefit of targeting urban populations, and why is Vladimir Putin doing so?

Historically, wars were fought to destroy the enemy’s army and occupy its capital. Mr Putin remains focused on destroying Ukraine’s ability to fight (just witness the grinding war of attrition in Bakhmut) and occupying Kyiv by laying it under aerial siege.

But will this onslaught help the Russian war effort, or is it simply the actions of an angry and frustrated autocrat?

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Explosions heard in Kyiv

Russia tried to take Kyiv very early in the war (remember the 40-mile convoy of military equipment), but although that attempt failed, Mr Putin will still see the Ukrainian capital – the seat of power – as the ultimate prize.

Most military analysts believe the objectives of Mr Putin’s so-called special military operation remain two-fold: securing Crimea; and seizing the Donbas.

Mindful that military resources are always limited, Russia objective should be laser-focused on these objectives.

Having culminated in Bakhmut, Russia should now be leveraging its “superpower” advantage to target Ukrainian resupply lines and its preparations for the forthcoming offensive.

It will be very difficult for Ukraine to hide its military preparations from Russian satellites; besides, Russia will have a multitude of spies operating within Ukraine that would be able to provide real-time targeting information to inform Russia’s ballistic missile capability.

Instead, in apparent response to Ukraine’s “temerity” in conducting drone attacks against Moscow, Mr Putin is targeting his limited supplies of missiles at the civilian population of Kyiv.

Read more:
Why is Russia attacking Kyiv instead of military targets?

Alex Crawford describes scene in Kyiv after Russian attack

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What Kyiv attacks can tell us

Has Putin made the same mistake as Hitler?

In the Second World War, Nazi Germany was preparing to invade Britain, but first Hitler had to destroy the RAF.

The Battle of Britain brought the RAF to its knees; however, in anger at the allies’ efforts to bomb German cities, Hitler took his foot off the throat of the RAF and switched to targeting London.

An irrational decision, but one which allowed the RAF to recover and helped turn the tide of the war.

Has Mr Putin – a politician with no military experience – made the same mistake by targeting Kyiv?

Russia is using long-range Shahed 136 drones – imported from Iran – to conduct most of the strikes against Kyiv.

These inexpensive and simple drones fly at around 100mph, and although they have a nasty punch, they are not difficult to shoot down (even if the wreckage still wrecks lives).

Russian Shahed 136 drone
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Russian Shahed 136 drone

They are not unlike wasps in summer; irritating, and painful if they sting, but not usually deadly. Besides, few drones now get through.

Russia also continues to fire long-range ballistic missiles against Kyiv; these are usually very accurate weapons and more difficult to shoot down, but the provision of specialist Western air defence capabilities – such as US Patriot – has proven extremely effective at protecting the capital.

 Dash cam footage shows moment rocket debris hit busy road in Kyiv.
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Dash cam footage shows the moment rocket debris hit a busy road in Kyiv
The aftermath of an attack in Kyiv on 30 May. Pic: AP
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The aftermath of an attack in Kyiv on 30 May. Pic: AP

Why is Russia wasting missiles on non-military targets?

Firstly, Ukrainian military capability is hidden, mobile, and dispersed.

A slick time-sensitive-targeting (TST) capability involves linking satellite imagery to HQ analysis, before tasking a unit to prosecute the target – and swiftly. Simple? For the Russians, no.

TST is difficult and requires great teamwork between different agencies – the West invests heavily in the people and technology required for success; Russia does not. Russia cannot conduct high-tempo TST, so instead does what it can – target civilians.

People take cover at a metro station during a Russian rocket attack in Kyiv
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People take cover at a metro station during a Russian rocket attack in Kyiv. Pic: AP

Secondly, Mr Putin does not have any military training, so strategy, doctrine and main effort are not phrases that resonate with him.

Instead, he is driven by symbolism – Bakhmut had limited military value, but Mr Putin wanted a success for his May Day celebration.

Likewise, he wants to punish President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his audacity in fighting back, but like Hitler and the Battle of Britain, Mr Putin is allowing emotion to override military strategy.

Ballistic missiles are complex weapons; Russia is currently using them up faster than they can be replaced.

The waves of missile attacks on Kyiv do not have any military benefit and are not contributing to Russia’s war ends; they are simply the actions of a frustrated leader who is seeking to vent anger at his tenacious opponent.

This lack of a ruthless focus on military objectives is a critical weakness of Russia’s military machine, which we can expect to see exploited in the coming months.

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Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow: What we know about the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities

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Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow: What we know about the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities

There is much that is still not known about the US strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Reports are coming in about which sites were hit and what military elements were involved, as President Donald Trump hails the attack on social media.

Here’s what we know so far.

Follow latest: US bombers strike three Iranian nuclear sites

Which sites were hit?

America appears to have hit the three key locations in Iran’s nuclear programme.

They include Isfahan, the location of a significant research base, as well as uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow.

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Natanz was believed to have been previously damaged in Israeli strikes after bombs disrupted power to the centrifuge hall, possibly destroying the machines indirectly.

However the facility at Fordow, which is buried around 80 metres below a mountain, had previously escaped major damage.

Details about the damage in the US strikes is not yet known, although Mr Trump said the three sites had been “obliterated”.

Read more:
Fordow: What we know about Iran’s secretive ‘nuclear mountain’

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Sky’s Mark Stone explains how Iran might respond to the US strike on Tehran’s nuclear sites.

What weapons were used in the attacks?

The White House and Pentagon did not immediately elaborate on the operation, but a US official said B-2 heavy bombers were involved.

Fox News host Sean Hannity said he had spoken with the president and that six bunker buster bombs were used on the Fordow facility.

Bunker buster bombs are designed to explode twice. Once to breach the ground surface and again once the bomb has burrowed down to a certain depth.

A GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri. in 2023. File pic: US Air Force via AP
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A file picture of a GBU-57 bunker buster bomb, which was possibly used in the attack on Fordow. Pic: AP

Israel has some in its arsenal but does not have the much more powerful GBU-57, which can only be launched from the B-2 bomber and was believed to be the only bomb capable of breaching Fordow.

Hannity said 30 Tomahawk missiles fired by US submarines 400 miles away struck the Iranian nuclear sites of Natanz and Isfahan.

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‘Fordow is gone’: US warplanes strike three nuclear sites in Iran

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'Fordow is gone': US warplanes strike three nuclear sites in Iran

The US has carried out a “very successful attack” on three nuclear sites on Iran, President Donald Trump has said.

The strikes, which the US leader announced on social media, reportedly include a hit on the heavily-protected Fordow enrichment plant which is buried deep under a mountain.

The other sites hit were at Natanz and Isfahan. It brings the US into direct involvement in the war between Israel and Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the “bold decision” by Mr Trump, saying it would “change history”.

Iran has repeatedly denied that it is seeking a nuclear weapon and the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said in June that it has no proof of a “systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon”.

Follow latest: US bombers strike three Iranian nuclear sites

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Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’

Addressing the nation in the hours after the strikes, Mr Trump said that Iran must now make peace or “we will
go after” other targets in Iran.

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Commenting on the operation, he said that the three Iranian sites had been “obliterated”.

“There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight
days,” he said.

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Benjamin Netanyahu said Donald Trump and the US have acted with strength following strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In a posting on Truth Social earlier, Mr Trump said, “All planes are safely on their way home” and he congratulated “our great American Warriors”. He added: “Fordow is gone.”

He also threatened further strikes on Iran unless it doesn’t “stop immediately”, adding: “Now is the time for peace.”

It is not yet clear if the UK was directly involved in the attack.

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‘Iranians have to repond’

Read more:
Analysis: If Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos
Fordow: What we know about Iran’s secretive ‘nuclear mountain’

Among the sites hit was Fordow, a secretive nuclear facility buried around 80 metres below a mountain and one of two key uranium enrichment plants in Iran.

“A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow,” Mr Trump said. “Fordow is gone.”

There had been a lot of discussion in recent days about possible American involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, and much centred around the US possibly being best placed to destroy Fordow.

Meanwhile, Natanz and Isfahan were the other two sites hit in the US attack.

Natanz is the other major uranium enrichment plant in Iran and was believed to have possibly already suffered extensive damage in Israel’s strikes earlier this week.

Isfahan features a large nuclear technology centre and enriched uranium is also stored there, diplomats say.

Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant
Image:
Map showing the Fordow enrichment plant

US media reported that six ‘bunker buster’ bombs were used to strike Fordow.

Mr Trump said no further strikes were planned and that he hoped diplomacy would now take over.

It’s not yet known what Iran’s response will be – particularly as the government was already struggling to repel Israel.

However a commentator on Iranian state TV said every US citizen or military in the region was now a legitimate target.

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Like George W Bush did in Iraq, if Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos that could ensue

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Like George W Bush did in Iraq, if Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos that could ensue

Israelis are good at tactics, poor at strategic vision, it has been observed.

Their campaign against Iran may be a case in point.

Short termism is understandable in a region that is so unpredictable. Why make elaborate plans if they are generally undone by unexpected events? It is a mindset that is familiar to anyone who has lived or worked there.

And it informs policy-making. The Israeli offensive in Gaza is no exception. The Israeli government has never been clear how it will end or what happens the day after that in what remains of the coastal strip. Pressed privately, even senior advisers will admit they simply do not know.

It may seem unfair to call a military operation against Iran that literally took decades of planning short-termist or purely tactical. There was clearly a strategy of astonishing sophistication behind a devastating campaign that has dismantled so much of the enemy’s capability.

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How close is Iran to producing a nuclear weapon?

But is there a strategic vision beyond that? That is what worries Israel’s allies.

It’s not as if we’ve not been here before, time and time again. From Libya to Afghanistan and all points in between we have seen the chaos and carnage that follows governments being changed.

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Hundreds of thousands have died. Vast swathes of territory remain mired in turmoil or instability.

Which is where a famous warning sign to American shoppers in the 80s and 90s comes in.

Ahead of the disastrous invasion that would tear Iraq apart, America’s defence secretary, Colin Powell, is said to have warned US president George W Bush of the “Pottery Barn rule”.

The Pottery Barn was an American furnishings store. Signs among its wares told clumsy customers: “You break it, you own it.”

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Iran and Israel exchange attacks

Bush did not listen to Powell hard enough. His administration would end up breaking Iraq and owning the aftermath in a bloody debacle lasting years.

Israel is not invading Iran, but it is bombing it back to the 80s, or even the 70s, because it is calling for the fall of the government that came to power at the end of that decade.

Iran’s leadership is proving resilient so far but we are just a week in. It is a country of 90 million, already riven with social and political discontent. Its system of government is based on factional competition, in which paranoia, suspicion and intense rivalries are the order of the day.

Read more:
Putin says ‘Ukraine is ours’ and threatens nuclear strike
Air India warned by watchdog over pilot scheduling breaches

After half a century of authoritarian theocratic rule there are no opposition groups ready to replace the ayatollahs. There may be a powerful sense of social cohesion and a patriotic resentment of outside interference, for plenty of good historic reasons.

But if that is not enough to keep the country together then chaos could ensue. One of the biggest and most consequential nations in the region could descend into violent instability.

That will have been on Israel’s watch. If it breaks Iran it will own it even more than America owned the disaster in Iraq.

Iran and Israel are, after all, in the same neighbourhood.

Has Israel thought through the consequences? What is the strategic vision beyond victory?

And if America joins in, as Donald Trump is threatening, is it prepared to share that legacy?

At the very least, is his administration asking its allies whether they have a plan for what could come next?

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