close video Commercial real estate market will worsen if economy slows: Jeff Greene
Real estate entrepreneur Jeff Greene addresses fears of commercial real estate collapse on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
The threat of a commercial real estate market crash is hanging over the already fragile U.S. economy.
About $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgage debt is due by the end of 2025, but steeper borrowing costs, coupled with tighter credit conditions and a decline in property values brought on by remote work, have increased the risk of default.
Fitch Ratings already estimated that 35% — or $5.8 billion — of pooled securities commercial mortgages coming due between April and December 2023 will not be able to be refinanced.
"Commercial real estate is melting down fast," Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in a recent tweet. "Home values next."
WORLD BANK WARNS GLOBAL ECONOMY TO SLOW SHARPLY AMID HIGHER INTEREST RATES
The Amazon HQ2 Met Park campus in Arlington, Va., April 3, 2023. (Nathan Howard/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Office and retail property valuations could ultimately plummet as much as 40% from peak to trough this year as higher interest rates make it harder for investors to refinance trillions in looming debt, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
"MS & Co. analysts forecast a peak-to-trough CRE price decline of as much as 40%, worse than in the Great Financial Crisis," Shalett wrote in a weekly investment note. "More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points."
STOCK MARKET RALLY COULD BE DERAILED BY AN EARNINGS SLUMP, MORGAN STANLEY WARNS
Complicating the matter is the fact that small and regional banks are the biggest source of credit to the $20 trillion commercial real estate market, holding about 80% of the sector's outstanding debt. Regional banks were just at the epicenter of the upheaval within the financial sector, and there are concerns that the turmoil could make lending standards drastically more restrictive.
Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, D.C., March 22, 2023. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
During a credit crunch, banks significantly raise their lending standards, making it difficult for businesses or households to get loans. Borrowers may have to agree to more stringent terms like high interest rates as banks try to reduce the financial risk on their end.
Banks were already tightening lending standards before the crisis within the industry began. A quarterly survey of loan officers published by the Fed showed that a growing number of banks tightened lending standards and saw a sharp slowdown in demand during the final three months of 2022.
BANKING CRISIS THREATENS TO IGNITE CREDIT CRUNCH OF US HOUSEHOLDS: WHAT TO KNOW
"Refinancing risks are front and center" for commercial property owners, a separate Morgan Stanley note said. "The maturity wall here is front-loaded. So are the associated risks."
Even before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in early March, the commercial real estate market was struggling with a number of challenges, including higher interest rates and waning demand for office space as more companies allow employees to work from home.
Pedestrians walk by a First Republic Bank April 26, 2023, in San Francisco. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images / Getty Images)
"Commercial real estate, already facing headwinds from a shift to hybrid/remote work, has to refinance more than half of its mortgage debt in the next two years," Shalett wrote in a weekly report published last month.
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 times over the past year from near zero to around 5%. Policymakers have indicated that another rate hike could be on the table this year amid signs of underlying inflationary pressures.
Still, others are less pessimistic about the future of the commercial real estate market. Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer of Americas, said the headlines regarding office space "are worse than reality."
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE ON FOX BUSINESS
"An expected credit crunch on the back of rising cost of funding for banks may further compound its troubles," Marcelli said in a note. "We don’t believe a repeat of the 2008 liquidity crisis is likely — where capital markets essentially closed for financing.
"In our view, the health of the overall banking system and market liquidity conditions are substantially better than they were during the [Great Financial Crisis]."
The compressed NHL schedule for the end of the Stanley Cup playoffs, draft and free agency means that the majority of July and August is … a bit slower.
But it’s also the perfect time to refresh our Power Rankings of all 32 teams heading into 2025-26!
In addition to the latest 1-32 poll, this edition includes the top storyline for each team during the summer break.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on how strong each team will be in the 2025-26 season, which generates our master list.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the final 2024-25 edition, published April 11. Stanley Cup odds are per ESPN BET as of July 24.
A second straight loss in the Stanley Cup Final resulted in no small amount of self-reflection — all while the proverbial sword of Damocles hangs over the franchise in Connor McDavid‘s potential free agency in 2026. One item that remains unchecked? Finding a better solution in goal.
Pre-playoff ranking: 3 Stanley Cup odds: +1000
Another trip to the Western Conference finals wasn’t enough for Peter DeBoer to save his job, who was replaced by former Stars coach Glen Gulutzan in July. How will the first full season of the Mikko Rantanen Era go?
Pre-playoff ranking: 7 Stanley Cup odds: +800
Given all the re-signings this offseason, there weren’t a bevy of high-impact free agents available. However, one of the top ones signed with the Hurricanes. How will Nikolaj Ehlers be deployed in Rod Brind’Amour’s system? And can he be the difference-maker next postseason?
Pre-playoff ranking: 4 Stanley Cup odds: +850
Same old Knights. The biggest fish in the free agency pond this offseason was Mitch Marner, and sure enough, Vegas’ front office found a way to land him. It presents a salary cap situation for the club, though that’s also nothing new. Marner visits Toronto on Jan. 23, for those in a calendar-circling mood.
Pre-playoff ranking: 1 Stanley Cup odds: +2500
The reigning Presidents’ Trophy winners as regular-season champs lost a key player in Nikolaj Ehlers this offseason, but gained perhaps the sport’s biggest X factor in Jonathan Toews, a three-time Stanley Cup winner who hasn’t played since the 2022-23 season because of health concerns.
Pre-playoff ranking: 5 Stanley Cup odds: +750
A first-round playoff loss is a bit misleading, as it was to fellow juggernaut Dallas Stars. The Avs believe they’ve solved their second-line center dilemma with a contract for 2024-25 trade addition Brock Nelson, but do they have enough depth to make another Cup run?
Pre-playoff ranking: 6 Stanley Cup odds: +2000
Toronto’s seemingly Quixotic quest to win another Stanley Cup continues. It has been an offseason of ups and downs so far. The Leafs lost Mitch Marner in a sign-and-trade with Vegas but inked one of the summer’s best deals with the new pact for Matthew Knies. As always, it’s high drama in the “centre of the hockey universe.”
Pre-playoff ranking: 2 Stanley Cup odds: +3000
Alex Ovechkin begins the 2025-26 season as the NHL’s all-time goals leader — and three away from 900. But the Caps won’t simply be feeding him pucks all season. This team will hope to get further than the second round, perhaps giving Ovi another Cup for his Hall of Fame résumé.
Pre-playoff ranking: 9 Stanley Cup odds: +1400
The Lightning continue to expertly massage their roster within the bounds of the salary cap. That continued this offseason, as they extended Yanni Gourde and Gage Goncalves for scoring depth. Another long playoff run is possible, though they’ll likely have to defeat their rivals from South Florida at some point on that road.
play
1:27
Bettman shares 4 Nations tournament success with McAfee
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman joins “The Pat McAfee Show” and details the success of the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament.
Pre-playoff ranking: 8 Stanley Cup odds: +2000
After signing a bevy of veteran depth to the roster in free agency, the Kings created the NHL’s best schedule release video. It has been an exciting summer already!
Pre-playoff ranking: 13 Stanley Cup odds: +4000
At one point there was some thought that the Wild would sign Minnesota natives Brock Nelson or Brock Boeser (or both). Instead, each re-signed with his 2024-25 team. Bringing in Vladimir Tarasenko could be one of the offseason’s deftest moves, if the veteran forward can find his former scoring touch that mostly eluded him this past season.
Pre-playoff ranking: 15 Stanley Cup odds: +1600
Aside from some depth tweaks, the Devils didn’t do a ton thus far this offseason — though re-signing Jake Allen may prove to be one of the wiser roster moves. How will Luke Hughes‘ next contract impact the rest of their decisions?
Pre-playoff ranking: 12 Stanley Cup odds: +5000
After a playoff appearance this past season, it has been a relatively quiet offseason so far for St. Louis. And as of right now, the club doesn’t have the cap space to sign anyone to a bold offer sheet.
Pre-playoff ranking: 14 Stanley Cup odds: +3500
Senators GM Steve Staios has indicated that he likes what he has on the roster and expects growth from within. That was evident this offseason, as the club’s most noteworthy move was re-signing veteran forward Claude Giroux to a one-year deal.
Pre-playoff ranking: 17 Stanley Cup odds: +6000
Fresh off a somewhat surprising Stanley Cup playoff appearance, the Canadiens made one of the offseason’s boldest moves by trading two first-round picks for 25-year-old defenseman Noah Dobson, then inking him to an eight-year deal. Are the playoffs now an every-year thing for the Habs?
Pre-playoff ranking: 20 Stanley Cup odds: +3000
The Rangers switched coaches — from Cup winner Peter Laviolette to Cup winner Mike Sullivan — and found a trade destination for K’Andre Miller after the decision was made not to re-sign the restricted free agent. In between they landed one of the top available free agents, defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov. Is it enough to get them back in the postseason mix?
Pre-playoff ranking: 16 Stanley Cup odds: +15000
Another GM who believes — apparently — that growth will come from within, GM Craig Conroy told reporters that the players his front office had targeted in free agency signed elsewhere, and he didn’t feel any great need to spend $15 million-plus in cap space just to spend it. He could be onto something, as the team’s youth movement isn’t all Calder Trophy finalist Dustin Wolf — though having a great young goaltender certainly doesn’t hurt.
Pre-playoff ranking: 19 Stanley Cup odds: +4000
There was no playoff hockey in Utah this past spring, but GM Bill Armstrong pulled many different levers this offseason to put his team in the best spot to bring it there in 2026. The team traded for a potential superstar in JJ Peterka, signed proven veteran depth in Nate Schmidt and Brandon Tanev, and drafted Caleb Desnoyers with the No. 4 pick, a 200-foot center who will play a key role for the team sooner than later.
Pre-playoff ranking: 21 Stanley Cup odds: +10000
Little Caesars Arena has yet to host a playoff game. Is this the season that the drought ends? Detroit was knocking on the door this past season, and GM Steve Yzerman filled perhaps the org’s biggest need by trading for veteran goaltender John Gibson this summer.
Pre-playoff ranking: 18 Stanley Cup odds: +6000
Based on how the Canucks finished the 2024-25 season, continuity didn’t seem like the best option this summer. But aside from making a coaching change (from Rick Tocchet to Adam Foote) and trading for Evander Kane, it’s mostly status quo. That said, re-signing Brock Boeser was probably an easier option than trying to replace a player who scored 65 goals combined the past two seasons.
Pre-playoff ranking: 22 Stanley Cup odds: +10000
To the surprise of many the Blue Jackets remained in the playoff race until the final week of the season, thanks in large part to a Norris Trophy finalist campaign by Zach Werenski. The club made some depth additions this offseason — Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood will be particularly useful if they do make the 2026 playoffs. But are there some additional moves up GM Don Waddell’s sleeve before October?
Pre-playoff ranking: 23 Stanley Cup odds: +10000
New GM Mathieu Darche was not bashful in his first weeks on the job. Following the Noah Dobson trade, he and his associates drafted an A+ class, per ESPN’s Rachel Doerrie, and added an X factor forward in Jonathan Drouin. This is a team on the rise.
Pre-playoff ranking: 24 Stanley Cup odds: +10000
At some point, the Ducks’ rebuild will be over, and that day might be coming sooner than many suspect. GM Pat Verbeek was quite busy this summer, adding Chris Kreider in a trade and sending Trevor Zegras to Philly in another swap. The Ducks also added Mikael Granlund in free agency; he will be critical to their playoff chances. And if all of that wasn’t enough, they got a top-five talent in the draft class with the No. 10 pick in Roger McQueen, and then sent him to Disneyland to celebrate.
play
0:29
Ducks draft pick Roger McQueen celebrates at Disneyland
Roger McQueen arrives at Disneyland to celebrate being drafted No. 10 by the Ducks.
Pre-playoff ranking: 29 Stanley Cup odds: +10000
Boston’s offseason business has primarily involved adding depth around the edges — and drafting future franchise center James Hagens, who will play another season at Boston College. Is there a big trade in store?
Pre-playoff ranking: 25 Stanley Cup odds: +20000
At some point, the longest playoff drought in the big four North American professional sports leagues will end. Will that be this season? The Sabres don’t appear better on paper than they were at the end of 2024-25, and they might even be worse, given that JJ Peterka was traded to Utah.
Pre-playoff ranking: 28 Stanley Cup odds: +7500
The Flyers began the offseason by hiring franchise legend Rick Tocchet to take over behind the bench. Then, they drafted a class of nine players who all play like him (or are built like he was in his playing days). In between, they traded for Trevor Zegras, who could wind up as the biggest steal of the offseason.
Pre-playoff ranking: 27 Stanley Cup odds: +30000
The Kraken have been patiently building a balanced roster with long-term success in mind. Can they finally turn a corner in 2025-26 after an offseason in which the big additions were Mason Marchment and Ryan Lindgren?
Pre-playoff ranking: 30 Stanley Cup odds: +10000
The Predators were the no-doubt winners of free agency in 2024 — and then missed the playoffs by a country mile in 2024-25. By contrast, the 2025 offseason included some low-key moves that should help get them back on track, including a trade for Nicolas Hague and the signings of Erik Haula and Nick Perbix.
Pre-playoff ranking: 26 Stanley Cup odds: +20000
It’s uncertain how long the trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang will remain on the ice, and the rumors have picked up that one, two or all three could finish their NHL careers elsewhere. GM Kyle Dubas has been busy stocking the prospect cupboards, a process that will continue leading up to opening night, with Erik Karlsson and Bryan Rust frequently mentioned in trade rumors.
Pre-playoff ranking: 32 Stanley Cup odds: +50000
The Sharks are still probably a year away from a serious run at a playoff spot, but GM Mike Grier added a ton of talent to his roster this summer. No. 2 pick Michael Misa has the talent to hit the ice this season. The Sharks also signed veterans Dmitry Orlov and John Klingberg to add some experience to a defense that was lacking in that regard.
Pre-playoff ranking: 31 Stanley Cup odds: +50000
Perhaps the biggest move yet to be made by Chicago this summer is a contract extension for franchise center Connor Bedard, who will be a restricted free agent next summer. Other than that, GM Kyle Davidson appeared mostly content with letting his young roster develop, making no major additions.
Two children and a woman who died in a shooting in County Fermanagh have been named.
Vanessa Whyte, 45, and her two children, Sara Rutledge, aged 13, and 14-year-old James Rutledge, died in the shooting on Wednesday morning, the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) said.
A man, who is a member of the same household, was seriously injured in the shooting in the village of Maguiresbridge, about 75 miles (120km) southwest of Belfast.
Police launched a murder investigation, and Detective Chief Inspector Neil McGuinness asked people with information about the shooting incident to contact police.
Image: The scene in the Drummeer Road area of Maguiresbridge, Co Fermanagh, after three people died in a shooting. Pic: Oliver McVeigh /PA Wire
“I am particularly keen to hear from anyone who had spoken to Vanessa, Sara or James over the last few weeks. If you are someone that Vanessa, Sara or James may have confided in, please come and speak to us,” he said.
“Any information, no matter how small or insignificant it may seem could prove crucial to our investigation.”
Police don’t anticipate any arrests being made at this stage, Superintendent Robert McGowan, district commander for Fermanagh and Omagh, said at a news conference on Wednesday.
Emergency services were called to the Drummeer Road area of Maguiresbridge at around 8am on Wednesday following a report raised from the property.
Two people were found dead at the scene, and two others were seriously injured.
One patient was taken to the Royal Victoria Hospital, Belfast, by air ambulance and the other to South West Acute Hospital by ambulance. Supt McGowan said the third person died at the South West Acute Hospital.
Image: Maguiresbridge
A local Gaelic football club said the victims were all “active and beloved” members of their club.
Sara and James Rutledge also used to be part of a local cricket club, which said in a statement that it was “extremely saddened by the tragic events”.
“Both of them turned out to be talented young cricketers and two absolutely lovely-natured children,” the statement read.
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Hilary Benn said: “The news from Maguiresbridge is tragic and deeply distressing.
“My thoughts are with the victims, their relatives and the local community in Fermanagh.”
Image: The scene was cordoned off by police following the shooting on Wednesday morning. Pic: Oliver McVeigh /PA Wire
Sinn Fein MP Pat Cullen has expressed her deep shock over the shooting.
“I’m also thinking of all the wee school friends of those two wee children and what that must feel like for all of them and how the next few days and weeks will be for everyone, particularly just at the beginning of the school holidays,” she said.
DUP MLA Deborah Erskine, who represents Co Fermanagh in the Northern Ireland Assembly, said that the community was “stunned” by the shooting in “a rural, quiet area”.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Please refresh the page for the fullest version.
You can receive Breaking News alerts on a smartphone or tablet via the Sky News App. You can also follow @SkyNews on X or subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with the latest news.