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close video Commercial real estate market will worsen if economy slows: Jeff Greene

Real estate entrepreneur Jeff Greene addresses fears of commercial real estate collapse on ‘The Claman Countdown.’

The threat of a commercial real estate market crash is hanging over the already fragile U.S. economy. 

About $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgage debt is due by the end of 2025, but steeper borrowing costs, coupled with tighter credit conditions and a decline in property values brought on by remote work, have increased the risk of default. 

Fitch Ratings already estimated that 35% — or $5.8 billion — of pooled securities commercial mortgages coming due between April and December 2023 will not be able to be refinanced. 

"Commercial real estate is melting down fast," Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in a recent tweet. "Home values next."

WORLD BANK WARNS GLOBAL ECONOMY TO SLOW SHARPLY AMID HIGHER INTEREST RATES

The Amazon HQ2 Met Park campus in Arlington, Va., April 3, 2023. (Nathan Howard/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Office and retail property valuations could ultimately plummet as much as 40% from peak to trough this year as higher interest rates make it harder for investors to refinance trillions in looming debt, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

"MS & Co. analysts forecast a peak-to-trough CRE price decline of as much as 40%, worse than in the Great Financial Crisis," Shalett wrote in a weekly investment note. "More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points."

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Complicating the matter is the fact that small and regional banks are the biggest source of credit to the $20 trillion commercial real estate market, holding about 80% of the sector's outstanding debt. Regional banks were just at the epicenter of the upheaval within the financial sector, and there are concerns that the turmoil could make lending standards drastically more restrictive.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, D.C., March 22, 2023. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

During a credit crunch, banks significantly raise their lending standards, making it difficult for businesses or households to get loans. Borrowers may have to agree to more stringent terms like high interest rates as banks try to reduce the financial risk on their end.

Banks were already tightening lending standards before the crisis within the industry began. A quarterly survey of loan officers published by the Fed showed that a growing number of banks tightened lending standards and saw a sharp slowdown in demand during the final three months of 2022.

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"Refinancing risks are front and center" for commercial property owners, a separate Morgan Stanley note said. "The maturity wall here is front-loaded. So are the associated risks."

Even before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in early March, the commercial real estate market was struggling with a number of challenges, including higher interest rates and waning demand for office space as more companies allow employees to work from home.

Pedestrians walk by a First Republic Bank April 26, 2023, in San Francisco. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images / Getty Images)

"Commercial real estate, already facing headwinds from a shift to hybrid/remote work, has to refinance more than half of its mortgage debt in the next two years," Shalett wrote in a weekly report published last month.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 times over the past year from near zero to around 5%. Policymakers have indicated that another rate hike could be on the table this year amid signs of underlying inflationary pressures.

Still, others are less pessimistic about the future of the commercial real estate market. Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer of Americas, said the headlines regarding office space "are worse than reality."

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"An expected credit crunch on the back of rising cost of funding for banks may further compound its troubles," Marcelli said in a note. "We don’t believe a repeat of the 2008 liquidity crisis is likely — where capital markets essentially closed for financing.

"In our view, the health of the overall banking system and market liquidity conditions are substantially better than they were during the [Great Financial Crisis]."

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How quantum could supercharge Google’s AI ambitions

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How quantum could supercharge Google’s AI ambitions

Inside a secretive set of buildings in Santa Barbara, California, scientists at Alphabet are working on one of the company’s most ambitious bets yet. They’re attempting to develop the world’s most advanced quantum computers.

“In the future, quantum and AI, they could really complement each other back and forth,” said Julian Kelly, director of hardware at Google Quantum AI.

Google has been viewed by many as late to the generative AI boom, because OpenAI broke into the mainstream first with ChatGPT in late 2022.

Late last year, Google made clear that it wouldn’t be caught on the backfoot again. The company unveiled a breakthrough quantum computing chip called Willow, which it says can solve a benchmark problem unimaginably faster than what’s possible with a classical computer, and demonstrated that adding more quantum bits to the chip reduced errors exponentially. 

“That’s a milestone for the field,” said John Preskill, director of the Caltech Institute for Quantum Information and Matter. “We’ve been wanting to see that for quite a while.”

Willow may now give Google a chance to take the lead in the next technological era. It also could be a way to turn research into a commercial opportunity, especially as AI hits a data wall. Leading AI models are running out of high-quality data to train on after already scraping much of the data on the internet.

“One of the potential applications that you can think of for a quantum computer is generating new and novel data,” said Kelly. 

He uses the example of AlphaFold, an AI model developed by Google DeepMind that helps scientists study protein structures. Its creators won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. 

“[AlphaFold] trains on data that’s informed by quantum mechanics, but that’s actually not that common,” said Kelly. “So a thing that a quantum computer could do is generate data that AI could then be trained on in order to give it a little more information about how quantum mechanics works.” 

Kelly has said that he believes Google is only about five years away from a breakout, practical application that can only be solved on a quantum computer. But for Google to win the next big platform shift, it would have to turn a breakthrough into a business. 

Watch the video to learn more.

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Tesla (TSLA) brand damage is destroying used car value: ‘People don’t want them anymore’

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Tesla (TSLA) brand damage is destroying used car value: 'People don't want them anymore'

Tesla’s brand damage is eroding the value of used Tesla vehicles at a rapid rate, as owners rush to sell theirs.

It is breaking the used Tesla market as prices are plunging just as the broader used car market is recovering.

After a few tough years for the used car market following the pandemic, it is finally starting to recover over the last month.

Economic uncertainty and a fear of higher inflation due to Trump’s tariffs are prompting some buyers to shift from the new car market to the used car market.

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From March 2024 to March 2025, average used car prices decreased by 2.68% in the US, but the trend has finally reversed.

According to Car Guru‘s used car index, used car prices have risen an impressive 2.17% in the last 30 days alone.

However, there’s an exception: Tesla.

The price of used Tesla vehicles has been falling, like the rest of the used car market, since the pandemic; however, it is not benefiting from the reversal in the current macroeconomic situation.

While average used car prices rose more than 2% in the last 30 days, Tesla’s used car prices decreased by 1.34% in the US.

That’s due to oversupply, as many Tesla owners are selling their vehicles to distance themselves from the Tesla brand, which is associated with CEO Elon Musk and his increasingly divisive political views.

The demand to sell used Tesla vehicles is so high that many used car dealers, who had been fighting to acquire inventory just a year prior, are starting to be reticent about buying Tesla vehicles as the value decreases so rapidly.

In Quebec, Le Journal de Montréal spoke with local used car dealers and attended a car auction where many Tesla vehicles were up for sale, with some selling for half the price they were selling for just over a year ago.

Éric Piuze, owner of a used car dealership on Montreal’s South Shore, said (translated from French):

“People don’t want them anymore. The Elon Musk effect is very real in Quebec.”

The used car dealers at the auction noted that they are not confident they can sell the used Tesla quickly enough to avoid further value decreases.

Furthermore, they note that potential buyers are lowballing on Tesla vehicles because they are aware that inventory is high, creating a buyer’s market.

Dealers are also seeing higher defaults on Tesla car payments, as buyers who took on debt to purchase them just a few years ago struggle to make payments.

Piuze added (translated from French):

People paid a lot of money for Teslas. During the pandemic, we saw many people remortgaging their homes to buy a Tesla. Those days are over.

At its peak, the average used Tesla price was over $60,000 in 2022. Now, the same vehicles are worth a fraction, but their car payments are still high.

Electrek’s Take

Even with the used car market finally getting a breather from crashing prices, Tesla vehicles are not benefiting at all. This highlights a significant issue in the used Tesla market. It’s broken.

The market can’t absorb the surge in people selling their Tesla vehicles.

I wouldn’t want to be a company holding a fleet of Tesla vehicles right now. The value erosion is impressive.

I thought that maybe the Cybertruck was dragging the entire Tesla market down, with a 6.64% decrease in used value over the last 30 days. However, the Model Y alone saw a 1.67% decrease during the same period.

The good news is that the vast majority of people selling their used Tesla vehicles are purchasing other electric vehicles, thereby boosting the EV market. It’s also giving people the chance to get into Tesla vehicles for cheaper, although they should expect the value of those vehicles to decrease rapidly.

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Nintendo Switch 2 retail preorder to begin April 24 following tariff delays

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Nintendo Switch 2 retail preorder to begin April 24 following tariff delays

An attendee wearing a Super Mario costume uses a Nintendo Switch 2 game console while playing a video game during the Nintendo Switch 2 Experience at the ExCeL London international exhibition and convention centre in London, Britain, April 11, 2025. 

Isabel Infantes | Reuters

Nintendo on Friday announced that retail preorder for its Nintendo Switch 2 gaming system will begin on April 24 starting at $449.99.

Preorders for the hotly anticipated console were initially slated for April 9, but Nintendo delayed the date to assess the impact of the far-reaching, aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs that President Donald Trump announced earlier this month.

Most electronics companies, including Nintendo, manufacture their products in Asia. Nintendo’s Switch 1 consoles were made in China and Vietnam, Reuters reported in 2019. Trump has imposed a 145% tariff rate on China and a 10% rate on Vietnam. The latter is down from 46%, after he instituted a 90-day pause to allow for negotiations.

Nintendo said Friday that the Switch 2 will cost $449.99 in the U.S., which is the same price the company first announced on April 2.

“We apologize for the retail pre-order delay, and hope this reduces some of the uncertainty our consumers may be experiencing,” Nintendo said in a statement. “We thank our customers for their patience, and we share their excitement to experience Nintendo Switch 2 starting June 5, 2025.”

The Nintendo Switch 2 and “Mario Kart World bundle will cost $499.99, the digital version “Mario Kart World” will cost $79.99 and the digital version of “Donkey Kong Bananza” will cost $69.99, Nintendo said. All of those prices remain unchanged from the company’s initial announcement.

However, accessories for the Nintendo Switch 2 will “experience price adjustments,” the company said, and other future changes in costs are possible for “any Nintendo product.”

It will cost gamers $10 more to by the dock set, $1 more to buy the controller strap and $5 more to buy most other accessories, for instance.

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Nintendo has 'a lot of work to do' to convince casual users to upgrade to Switch 2: Kantan Games

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