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close video Commercial real estate market will worsen if economy slows: Jeff Greene

Real estate entrepreneur Jeff Greene addresses fears of commercial real estate collapse on ‘The Claman Countdown.’

The threat of a commercial real estate market crash is hanging over the already fragile U.S. economy. 

About $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgage debt is due by the end of 2025, but steeper borrowing costs, coupled with tighter credit conditions and a decline in property values brought on by remote work, have increased the risk of default. 

Fitch Ratings already estimated that 35% — or $5.8 billion — of pooled securities commercial mortgages coming due between April and December 2023 will not be able to be refinanced. 

"Commercial real estate is melting down fast," Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in a recent tweet. "Home values next."

WORLD BANK WARNS GLOBAL ECONOMY TO SLOW SHARPLY AMID HIGHER INTEREST RATES

The Amazon HQ2 Met Park campus in Arlington, Va., April 3, 2023. (Nathan Howard/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Office and retail property valuations could ultimately plummet as much as 40% from peak to trough this year as higher interest rates make it harder for investors to refinance trillions in looming debt, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

"MS & Co. analysts forecast a peak-to-trough CRE price decline of as much as 40%, worse than in the Great Financial Crisis," Shalett wrote in a weekly investment note. "More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points."

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Complicating the matter is the fact that small and regional banks are the biggest source of credit to the $20 trillion commercial real estate market, holding about 80% of the sector's outstanding debt. Regional banks were just at the epicenter of the upheaval within the financial sector, and there are concerns that the turmoil could make lending standards drastically more restrictive.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, D.C., March 22, 2023. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

During a credit crunch, banks significantly raise their lending standards, making it difficult for businesses or households to get loans. Borrowers may have to agree to more stringent terms like high interest rates as banks try to reduce the financial risk on their end.

Banks were already tightening lending standards before the crisis within the industry began. A quarterly survey of loan officers published by the Fed showed that a growing number of banks tightened lending standards and saw a sharp slowdown in demand during the final three months of 2022.

BANKING CRISIS THREATENS TO IGNITE CREDIT CRUNCH OF US HOUSEHOLDS: WHAT TO KNOW

"Refinancing risks are front and center" for commercial property owners, a separate Morgan Stanley note said. "The maturity wall here is front-loaded. So are the associated risks."

Even before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in early March, the commercial real estate market was struggling with a number of challenges, including higher interest rates and waning demand for office space as more companies allow employees to work from home.

Pedestrians walk by a First Republic Bank April 26, 2023, in San Francisco. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images / Getty Images)

"Commercial real estate, already facing headwinds from a shift to hybrid/remote work, has to refinance more than half of its mortgage debt in the next two years," Shalett wrote in a weekly report published last month.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 times over the past year from near zero to around 5%. Policymakers have indicated that another rate hike could be on the table this year amid signs of underlying inflationary pressures.

Still, others are less pessimistic about the future of the commercial real estate market. Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer of Americas, said the headlines regarding office space "are worse than reality."

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"An expected credit crunch on the back of rising cost of funding for banks may further compound its troubles," Marcelli said in a note. "We don’t believe a repeat of the 2008 liquidity crisis is likely — where capital markets essentially closed for financing.

"In our view, the health of the overall banking system and market liquidity conditions are substantially better than they were during the [Great Financial Crisis]."

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Technology

Texas Instruments’ stock falls on weak forecast

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Texas Instruments' stock falls on weak forecast

The Texas Instruments headquarters in Dallas, Texas, on Jan. 21, 2024.

N. Johnson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Texas Instruments reported second-quarter results on Tuesday that beat analysts’ expectations for revenue and earnings. But the stock fell in extended trading due to a third-quarter forecast that missed estimates.

Here’s how the chipmaker did versus LSEG consensus estimates:

  • Earnings per share: $1.41 vs. $1.35 expected
  • Revenue: $4.45 billion vs. $4.36 billion expected

Texas Instruments said it expects current-quarter earnings between $1.36 and $1.60 per share, while analysts were looking for $1.50 per share. The company forecast revenue of $4.45 billion to $4.8 billion, for a midpoint of $4.625 billion. Analysts were expecting revenue of $4.59 billion.

Revenue increased 16% in the second quarter from $3.82 billion in the same period a year earlier. Sales in the company’s analog chip business, its largest, rose 18% to $3.5 billion, surpassing the StreetAccount estimate of $3.39 billion for the segment.

Net income rose 15% to $1.3 billion, or $1.41 per share, from $1.13 billion, or $1.22 per share, a year ago.

Texas Instruments is a key supplier of legacy semiconductors for automotive and industrial uses.

As of Tuesday’s close, Texas Instruments shares were up 15% for the year on broader market optimism for chips. In June, the company said it would spend $60 billion to expand chipmaking factories in Texas and Utah, a move that was praised by the Trump administration in its push to bring more technology manufacturing to the U.S.

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Environment

This $900 million solar farm in Texas is going 100% to data centers

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This 0 million solar farm in Texas is going 100% to data centers

Enbridge is going big on solar again in Texas, and Meta is snapping up all the solar power it can get.

Last month, Electrek reported that the Canadian oil and gas pipeline giant just launched its first solar farm in Texas. Now it’s given the green light to Clear Fork, a 600 megawatt (MW) utility-scale solar farm already under construction near San Antonio. The project is expected to come online in summer 2027.

Once it’s up and running, every bit of Clear Fork’s electricity will go to Meta Platforms under a long-term contract. Meta will use the solar power to help run its energy-hungry data centers entirely on clean energy.

The solar farm project’s cost is around $900 million. Enbridge says it expects Clear Fork to boost the company’s cash flow and earnings starting in 2027.

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Enbridge EVP Matthew Akman said the project reflects “growing demand for renewable power across North America from blue-chip companies involved in technology and data center operations.”

Meta’s head of global energy, Urvi Parekh, added that the company is “thrilled to partner with Enbridge to bring new renewable energy to Texas and help support our operations with 100% clean energy.”

Meta’s first multi-gigawatt data center, Prometheus, is expected to come online in 2026.

Clear Fork is part of a growing trend: tech giants like Meta, Amazon, and Google are racing to lock down renewable energy contracts as they expand their fleets of AI-ready data centers, which use massive amounts of electricity.


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Technology

Trump met with Amazon’s Jeff Bezos at the White House last week, sources say

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Trump met with Amazon's Jeff Bezos at the White House last week, sources say

Jeff Bezos, founder and executive chairman of Amazon, takes the stage during The New York Times’ annual DealBook Summit, at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City on Dec. 4, 2024.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

President Donald Trump met with Amazon founder Jeff Bezos at the White House last week, CNBC has learned.

The meeting between Trump and Bezos, one of the world’s richest men, lasted for more than an hour, according to two people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the conversation was private.

Amazon declined to comment on the meeting. A spokesperson for Bezos didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The nature and exact timing of the visit couldn’t be learned.

A Gulfstream G700 private jet linked to Bezos landed in Dulles, Virginia, outside Washington, on July 14 before taking off the next day, according to Jack Sweeney, a programmer who tracks flight data from jets owned by Elon Musk, Bill Gates and others.

Bezos, who also owns rocket company Blue Origin, has cozied up to Trump during his second term in the White House. Trump frequently hurled insults at Bezos during his first term, largely because of the Amazon founder’s ownership of The Washington Post.

Read more CNBC Amazon coverage

Bezos joined a swath of tech CEOs on stage at Trump’s inauguration in January after donating $1 million to his inaugural fund.

The Trump administration praised Bezos for his decision to revamp the Post’s editorial pages to focus on “personal liberties and free markets.”

In April, Trump said Bezos, who stepped down as Amazon’s CEO in 2021, was “terrific” and “a good guy” after the billionaire assured Trump that the e-commerce giant had no plans to display tariff-related surcharges on its website.

More recently, Bezos has reportedly sought to capitalize on the dramatic falling-out between Trump and Musk, who spent more than $250 million to help Trump win a second White House term and previously led the government-slashing initiative called the Department of Government Efficiency.

Bezos competes with Musk, who is the CEO of SpaceX, through Blue Origin and Project Kuiper, Amazon’s low-Earth orbit satellite internet venture.

After Trump and Musk’s relationship soured, Bezos spoke with Trump on several occasions, while Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp traveled to the White House, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The conversations centered in part on government contracts, according to the Journal.

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