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Britain will have one of the highest inflation rates in the G20 this year but should narrowly avoid recession, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said in its latest set of forecasts.

The Paris-based OECD – a club of rich countries – said UK inflation will be higher in 2023 than nearly any G20 member save for Argentina and Turkey.

However, looking at its broader membership, the UK’s inflation rate, while high, will be outpaced by a number of other countries, including Sweden and Iceland.
It warned that higher interest rates are likely to dampen economic growth and incomes in the coming months.

It comes after the chancellor told Sky News he would back the Bank of England to raise interest rates in the coming months to bring inflation under control, even if it pushed the UK into recession.

Like the International Monetary Fund late last month, the OECD has upgraded its forecast for UK economic growth this year and next, so it is no longer the slowest-growing nation in the group of seven leading industrialised economies.

The UK will grow by 0.3% this year and 1% in 2024, the OECD’s Economic Outlook predicted.

“The high interest burden on public debt and the recent drop in average debt maturity leave the public finances exposed to movements in bond yields,” it said – a sign that it remains concerned about the state of the public finances.

“Renewed increases in wholesale energy prices due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine would further squeeze real incomes given the United Kingdom’s high dependence on natural gas. Faster-than-expected resolution of uncertainty regarding future trade relationships is an upside risk.”

The OECD said the UK’s inflation rate should average 6.9 per cent this year, somewhat higher than the OECD average.

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Britain’s high inflation is a result of a lack of participation in the labour market, energy prices, and wider supply chain disruptions, OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli told Sky.

It pointed out that there were some worrying signs about the rate of inflation in the UK, compared with other countries.

The share of items in the consumer price index “basket” rising by more than 5 per cent a year is now up to more than a third in the UK, compared with under 30 per cent in the euro area, Japan, Canada and the US.

The OECD’s new chief economist Clare Lombardelli, who recently joined from the UK Treasury, said that global growth would be a little bit stronger this year than expected, but at 2.7%, it remained below what might be considered a healthy rate.

“The global economy is turning a corner but faces a long road ahead to attain strong and sustainable growth,” she said.

“Monetary policymakers need to navigate a difficult road. Although headline inflation is declining thanks to lower energy prices, core inflation remains stubbornly high, more so than previously expected… Some economies grappling with stubbornly high core inflation may require additional interest rate increases.”

Responding to the announcement Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, said: “Today’s report boosts our growth forecast, praises our action to help parents back to work with a major expansion of free childcare, and recognises our cuts to business taxes which aim to drive investment.

“But while inflation is still too high, we must stick relentlessly to our plan to halve it this year. That is the only long term way to grow the economy and ease the cost of living pressures on families.”

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Tariffs hit US economy forecast but the Fed unmoved by latest Trump threats with no change to interest rates

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Tariffs hit US economy forecast but the Fed unmoved by latest Trump threats with no change to interest rates

The US central bank has made no change to interest rates and warned the world’s biggest economy will see less growth and higher inflation due to tariffs.

The Federal Reserve, known as the Fed, held rates despite President Donald Trump calling its chair, Jerome Powell, a “stupid person” on Wednesday.

“Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I’d do a much better job than these people,” Mr Trump said.

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Despite appointing Mr Powell himself in 2017, Mr Trump has expressed anger towards the Fed chair at multiple points in the past for not bringing down borrowing costs through interest rate cuts.

In his own address to reporters, Mr Powell declined to hit back.

The tariff effect

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But Mr Trump’s signature economic policy of tariffs – taxes on imports – was again forecast to cause higher inflation and lower economic growth in the US.

The Fed’s predictions for inflation were upgraded to 3.1% for 2025 from 2.5% in December, while the outlook for US economic growth was downgraded to 1.4% from 2.1% in December.

The effect of those extra taxes on imports will take time to work its way through the system and show up in prices on shelves, the Fed chair said.

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Trump may strike Iran

An uncertain outlook

While the level of uncertainty peaked in April, when Mr Trump announced many of his tariffs, and has since fallen, it remains elevated, Mr Powell said.

The exact impact of the levies is unclear and depends on the levels they reach, he added.

Many of the country-specific tariffs have been paused for 90 days, which is currently due to end on 8 July.

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Despite this, the economy is in a “solid position”, Mr Powell said.

Interest rates were kept at 4.25%-4.5%. Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.

A slowdown in the US economy can have an impact on the UK as the US is its largest trading partner.

On Thursday, it’s the turn of the UK central bank, the Bank of England, to make its latest interest rate determination, with no change also expected.

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Santander approaches TSB-owner about high street banking merger

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Santander approaches TSB-owner about high street banking merger

Santander has approached its fellow Spanish banking group Sabadell about a takeover of TSB, its British high street bank.

Sky News has learnt that Santander is among the parties which have expressed an interest in a potential deal, months after its boss denied that it was seeking to offload the UK’s fifth-largest retail bank.

City sources said on Wednesday that Santander had not tabled a formal offer for TSB, and was not certain to do so.

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However, the fact that it has contacted Sabadell about a possible transaction involving TSB suggests that Ana Botin, the Santander chair, may be open again to expanding its presence in Britain’s high street banking market.

The extent of the overlap between the two companies’ UK branch networks was unclear on Wednesday morning.

Santander, which like other banks has been engaged in an extensive branch closure programme for some time, now has roughly 350 UK branches, while TSB operates roughly half that number.

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The value that TSB, which was acquired by Sabadell in 2015 from Lloyds Banking Group, might attract in any takeover is also unclear.

Sabadell is in the middle of attempting to thwart a hostile takeover by rival Spanish bank BBVA – a deal revealed by Sky News last year – with a disposal of TSB said to be on the cards regardless of whether or not that bid is successful.

Ms Botin insisted that the UK remains a core market for Santander in the wake of speculation that she might sanction a sale of the business.

The company recently confirmed a Sky News report that Sir Tom Scholar, the former top Treasury official sacked by Liz Truss during her brief premiership, was joining the bank’s UK arm as its next chairman.

NatWest Group, which recently returned to full private ownership, was reported to have submitted an offer worth about £11bn for Santander UK.

No discussions are ongoing about such a deal.

NatWest, Barclays and HSBC have also been touted as potential suitors for TSB, although at least two of those three banks are thought to have little interest in bidding.

TSB was effectively created from the ashes of the 2008 financial crisis, when a vehicle set up to acquire assets from distressed banking groups lost out in an auction to a bid from the Co-operative Bank.

That deal fell through when it emerged that the Co-operative Bank itself was in a perilous financial state.

Sabadell explored a sale of TSB about five years ago, but opted to retain the business.

Goldman Sachs is thought to be advising Sabadell on the prospective sale of TSB.

Read more from Sky News:
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Western goods in Russian shops despite sanctions
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Responding to a report in the Financial Times on Sunday that TSB had been put up for sale, Banco Sabadell said: “Banco Sabadell confirms that it has received preliminary non-binding expressions of interest for the acquisition of the entire share capital of TSB Banking Group plc.

“Banco Sabadell will assess any potential binding offer it may receive.”

Santander declined to comment.

The TSB process emerged just hours after Sky News had revealed that Metro Bank, the high street lender, had been approached by Pollen Street Capital, the private equity firm, about a possible takeover.

The absence of a statement from either party implies that the approach was rejected and that Pollen Street has abandoned its interest, at least temporarily.

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Inflation slows to 3.4% but no Bank of England rate cut expected

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Inflation slows to 3.4% but no Bank of England rate cut expected

Inflation eased to an annual rate of 3.4% in May, according to official figures released this morning, but the Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold despite that.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the consumer prices index measure eased from 3.5% the previous month.

It said that despite upwards pressure on prices from food and clothing, the decline was driven by falls in airfare prices following Easter.

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The headline figure also reflected a small downwards correction to ONS inflation data ahead of April related to vehicle excise duty calculations.

ONS acting chief economist Richard Heys said: “A variety of counteracting price movements meant inflation was little changed in May.

FOOD INFLATION AT 15-MONTH HIGH


James Sillars, business reporter

James Sillars

Business and economics reporter

@SkyNewsBiz

Today’s headline inflation number suggests a flat picture for price growth overall.

But there is one stat that households will already be familiar with after a visit to the supermarket.

A jump in some food prices has been noticeable, with the ONS flagging a leap in its food and non-alcoholic drinks measure of inflation to a 15-month high.

Why the rise? Chocolate has spiked significantly this year due to a cocoa shortage blamed on poor harvests. Meat, particularly beef, has shot up on high global demand and rising costs.

The food and non-alcoholic drinks category has been on the rise for five months in a row. But the good news is that high rates of sales promotions by chains – discounts – are helping keep a lid on overall grocery bills.

“Air fares fell this month, compared with a large rise at the same time last year, as the timing of Easter and school holidays affected pricing. Meanwhile, motor fuel costs also saw a drop.

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“These were partially offset by rising food prices, particularly items such as chocolates and meat products. The cost of furniture and household goods, including fridge freezers and vacuum cleaners, also increased.”

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Businesses facing fresh energy cost threat

Forecasts suggest that inflation will tick up over the second half of the year – with effects from Donald Trump’s trade war and rising commodity costs amid events in the Middle East among the concerns ahead for the Bank of England.

It has adopted a “careful” and “gradual” approach to interest rate cuts as a result.

That is despite weakening employment data, reported earlier this month, which showed a tick up in the official jobless rate and a 109,000 reduction in payrolled employment.

Other elements of the inflation data are also supportive of an argument for rate cuts.

Core CPI inflation – a measure that strips out volatile elements such as energy and food – eased from 3.8% in April to 3.5% while services inflation tumbled sharply to 4.7% from 5.4% the previous month.

Nevertheless, the Bank is widely expected to leave Bank rate on hold on Thursday following the June meeting of its rate-setting committee.

LSEG data showed after the inflation data that financial markets currently see two more interest rate cuts by the year’s end.

Risks to prices ahead will come from a sustained Israel-Iran war pushing up oil and gas prices but there have been different views among policymakers over whether the trade war will result in inflation or not.

As such, the minutes of the Bank’s meeting will be closely scrutinised for hints on whether rate cut caution is easing.

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