UK to have one of highest inflation rates in G20 this year, new forecast shows

Published

12 months ago

June 7, 2023

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Britain will have one of the highest inflation rates in the G20 this year but should narrowly avoid recession, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said in its latest set of forecasts.

The Paris-based OECD – a club of rich countries – said UK inflation will be higher in 2023 than nearly any G20 member save for Argentina and Turkey.

However, looking at its broader membership, the UK’s inflation rate, while high, will be outpaced by a number of other countries, including Sweden and Iceland.
It warned that higher interest rates are likely to dampen economic growth and incomes in the coming months.

It comes after the chancellor told Sky News he would back the Bank of England to raise interest rates in the coming months to bring inflation under control, even if it pushed the UK into recession.

Like the International Monetary Fund late last month, the OECD has upgraded its forecast for UK economic growth this year and next, so it is no longer the slowest-growing nation in the group of seven leading industrialised economies.

The UK will grow by 0.3% this year and 1% in 2024, the OECD’s Economic Outlook predicted.

“The high interest burden on public debt and the recent drop in average debt maturity leave the public finances exposed to movements in bond yields,” it said – a sign that it remains concerned about the state of the public finances.

“Renewed increases in wholesale energy prices due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine would further squeeze real incomes given the United Kingdom’s high dependence on natural gas. Faster-than-expected resolution of uncertainty regarding future trade relationships is an upside risk.”

The OECD said the UK’s inflation rate should average 6.9 per cent this year, somewhat higher than the OECD average.

It pointed out that there were some worrying signs about the rate of inflation in the UK, compared with other countries.

The share of items in the consumer price index “basket” rising by more than 5 per cent a year is now up to more than a third in the UK, compared with under 30 per cent in the euro area, Japan, Canada and the US.

The OECD’s new chief economist Clare Lombardelli, who recently joined from the UK Treasury, said that global growth would be a little bit stronger this year than expected, but at 2.7%, it remained below what might be considered a healthy rate.

“The global economy is turning a corner but faces a long road ahead to attain strong and sustainable growth,” she said.

“Monetary policymakers need to navigate a difficult road. Although headline inflation is declining thanks to lower energy prices, core inflation remains stubbornly high, more so than previously expected… Some economies grappling with stubbornly high core inflation may require additional interest rate increases.”

Responding to the announcement Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, said: “Today’s report boosts our growth forecast, praises our action to help parents back to work with a major expansion of free childcare, and recognises our cuts to business taxes which aim to drive investment.

“But while inflation is still too high, we must stick relentlessly to our plan to halve it this year. That is the only long term way to grow the economy and ease the cost of living pressures on families.”

Business

Marks & Spencer’s website and app go down

Published

3 hours ago

May 18, 2024

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Marks & Spencer's website and app go down

Marks & Spencer’s website and app has not been working for several hours, with a message telling shoppers “you can’t shop with us right now”.

“We’re working hard to be back online as soon as possible,” it adds.

All the menus and images have disappeared apart from one showing a model in a green jacket.

Customers trying to use the app got the message: “Sorry you can’t shop through the app right now. We’re busy making some planned changes, but will be back soon.”

The site is understood to have been down for several hours.

Replying to one customer on X, the retailer said: “We’re experiencing some technical issues but we are working on it.”

M&S is the latest high street name to have technical issues – last month some Sainsbury’s shoppers had problems with their online orders.

The outage comes a few days before M&S is expected to reveal a big jump in annual profits.

It’s been a successful year for the brand, with strong sales across the business following a turnaround plan that has included store closures and cost cutting.

Business

Employees at fintech giant Revolut to cash in with $500m share sale

Published

7 hours ago

May 18, 2024

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Employees at fintech giant Revolut to cash in with 0m share sale

Bosses at Revolut, Britain’s biggest fintech, are drawing up plans to allow employees to cash in with a sale of stock valued at hundreds of millions of pounds.

Sky News has learnt that the banking and payments services provider is lining up investment bankers to coordinate a secondary share sale worth in the region of $500m (£394m).

Morgan Stanley, the Wall Street bank, is expected to be engaged to work on the proposed stock offering, which will take place later this year.

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City sources said this weekend that Nik Storonsky, Revolut’s co-founder and chief executive, was determined to seek a valuation of at least the $33bn (£26bn) it secured in a primary funding round in 2021.

“This will not be a down-round,” said one person familiar with Revolut’s thinking.

Although the fintech, which has more than 40 million customers, is not planning to raise new capital as part of the transaction, any sizeable share sale will still be closely watched across the global fintech sector.

It is expected to be restricted to company employees.

Revolut ranks among the world’s largest financial technology businesses, with revenue virtually doubling last year to around £1.7bn, according to figures expected to be published in the coming months.

Founded in 2015, it has experienced a string of regulatory and compliance challenges, with reports last year highlighting its release of funds from accounts flagged by the National Crime Agency as suspicious.

The company’s growth has taken place at breakneck speed, with customer numbers soaring from 16.4m at the point of the Series E fundraising nearly three years ago.

Insiders argued that despite the protracted downturn in tech valuations over the last two years, Revolut’s relentless expansion would easily justify it maintaining its status as Britain’s most valuable fintech.

Monzo, the UK-based digital bank, recently confirmed a Sky News story that it had closed a funding round worth nearly £500m, including backing from an arm of Google’s owner, Alphabet, and a Singaporean sovereign wealth fund.

Elsewhere, however, the funding landscape has been bleaker, with a growing number of tech companies which had attracted unicorn valuations of more than $1bn now struggling to stay afloat.

Revolut has allotted stock options to many of its 10,000 employees as part of their compensation packages, although it was unclear how many would be eligible to dispose of equity in the transaction later this year.

A source close to the company said it had had numerous expressions of interest from prospective investors.

Revolut’s current shareholders include SoftBank’s Vision Fund and Tiger Global.

News of the proposed share sale comes as Revolut’s investors continue to await positive news about its application for a UK banking licence.

The company applied to regulators to become a bank in Britain more than three years ago, but has so far failed to secure approval.

Mr Storonsky has been publicly critical of the delay, and last year questioned the approach of British regulators and politicians, as he suggested that he would not contemplate a listing on the London Stock Exchange.

An initial public offering of Revolut appears to still be some way off, although it would not surprise investors or industry peers if it initiated a listing process in the next couple of years.

One person close to Revolut said board members were among those expected to participate in the secondary share sale, although further details were unclear this weekend.

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The company is chaired by Martin Gilbert, the City veteran who has faced governance and performance challenges at Assetco, the London-listed asset manager he runs.

Its other directors include Michael Sherwood, the former Goldman Sachs executive who was jointly responsible for its operations outside the US and who was regarded as one of the most skilled traders of his generation.

An external shareholder in the company said the exclusion of non-employees from the deal could draw criticism from some investors.

Revolut has conducted secondary share sales of this kind in the past, including after its 2021 Series E round.

This weekend, Revolut declined to comment.

Business

Ex-Post Office head of IT says Paula Vennells ‘hoped to avoid’ inquiry – and reveals she blocked her number

Published

2 days ago

May 16, 2024

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Ex-Post Office head of IT says Paula Vennells 'hoped to avoid' inquiry - and reveals she blocked her number

A former Post Office executive has said she was forced to block ex-boss Paula Vennells’ phone number after the ex-CEO called multiple times asking for help to avoid an independent inquiry into the Horizon IT scandal.

Lesley Sewell, previously the company’s head of IT, told the Post Office inquiry on Thursday that former CEO Ms Vennells had reached out to her four times between 2020 and 2021.

Ms Sewell said that she blocked Ms Vennells’ number due to discomfort with the contact.

In her witness statement to the probe, Ms Sewell said that one of Ms Vennells’ emails referenced the need to fill in memory gaps regarding Horizon and “Project Sparrow”, a committee addressing issues with forensic accountants who identified flaws in the accounting system.

“Paula contacted me on four occasions in total. I recall blocking her number after the last call as I did not feel comfortable with her contacting me,” Ms Sewell said.

“I had not spoken to Paula since I had left POL [Post Office Limited] in 2015.”

According to Ms Sewell’s testimony, former chief executive Ms Vennells said that she had “been asked at short notice” to appear before a parliamentary select committee on “all things Horizon/Sparrow and need to plug some memory gaps”.

Ms Sewell says Ms Vennells added: “My hope is this might help avoid an independent inquiry but to do so, I need to be well prepared.”

Ms Sewell, who struggled to contain her emotions and broke down in tears while giving her oath at the start of her inquiry evidence, was offered support and breaks as needed by chairman Sir Wyn Williams.

Sir Wyn told the former executive: “Ms Sewell, I appreciate this may be upsetting for you, Ms Price will ask you a number of questions in a proper and sensible manner, but if at any time you feel you need a break, just let me know, all right?”

The Post Office has faced significant scrutiny following the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office which highlighted the Horizon IT scandal.

The faulty system led to the prosecution of more than 700 sub-postmasters between 1999 and 2015, with many still awaiting full compensation despite government announcements regarding payouts for those with quashed convictions.