UK to have one of the highest inflation rates in the developed world this year, new forecast shows
Britain will have one of the highest rates of inflation of any major developed economy this year but should narrowly avoid recession, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said in its latest set of forecasts.
The Paris-based OECD – a club of rich countries – said that inflation in Britain will be higher in 2023 than nearly any of its other members save for Argentina and Turkey.
It warned that higher interest rates are likely to dampen economic growth and incomes in the coming months.
It comes after the chancellor told Sky News he would back the Bank of England to raise interest rates in the coming months to bring inflation under control, even if it pushed the UK into recession.
Like the International Monetary Fund late last month, the OECD has upgraded its forecast for UK economic growth this year and next, so it is no longer the slowest-growing nation in the group of seven leading industrialised economies.
The UK will grow by 0.3% this year and 1% in 2024, the OECD’s Economic Outlook predicted.
But the OECD said there were “significant risks” to its forecast.
“The high interest burden on public debt and the recent drop in average debt maturity leave the public finances exposed to movements in bond yields,” it said – a sign that it remains concerned about the state of the public finances.
“Renewed increases in wholesale energy prices due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine would further squeeze real incomes given the United Kingdom’s high dependence on natural gas. Faster-than-expected resolution of uncertainty regarding future trade relationships is an upside risk.”
The OECD said the UK’s inflation rate should average 6.9% this year, higher than the OECD average and indeed nearly every other country in the developed world.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Britain’s high inflation is a result of a lack of participation in the labour market, energy prices, and wider supply chain disruptions, OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli told Sky.
It added that there were worrying signs about the rate of inflation in the UK, compared with other countries.
The share of items in the consumer price index “basket” rising by more than 5% a year is now up to more than a third in the UK, compared with under 30% in the euro area, Japan, Canada and the US.
The OECD’s new chief economist Clare Lombardelli, who recently joined from the UK Treasury, said that global growth would be a little bit stronger this year than expected, but at 2.7%, it remained below what might be considered a healthy rate.
“The global economy is turning a corner but faces a long road ahead to attain strong and sustainable growth,” she said.
“Monetary policymakers need to navigate a difficult road. Although headline inflation is declining thanks to lower energy prices, core inflation remains stubbornly high, more so than previously expected… Some economies grappling with stubbornly high core inflation may require additional interest rate increases.”
Responding to the OECD announcement, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “Today’s report boosts our growth forecast, praises our action to help parents back to work with a major expansion of free childcare, and recognises our cuts to business taxes which aim to drive investment.
“But while inflation is still too high, we must stick relentlessly to our plan to halve it this year. That is the only long term way to grow the economy and ease the cost of living pressures on families.”
A second body has been found in the search for two missing sisters in Aberdeen.
Eliza and Henrietta Huszti, both aged 32, were last spotted on CCTV in the city’s Market Street at Victoria Bridge at about 2.12am on Tuesday 7 January.
Around 9.05pm last night, the body of a woman was recovered from the River Dee in Aberdeen. The woman is yet to be formally identified but the sisters’ family has been told, say police.
Earlier yesterday, a body, believed to be that of Henrietta, was also recovered from the water.
On Tuesday 7 January the women were seen crossing the bridge and turning right on to a footpath next to the River Dee in the direction of Aberdeen Boat Club.
The siblings’ disappearance sparked a major Police Scotland operation, with the force’s extensive searches of the River Dee coming to an end three weeks later.
A search team scouring the River Dee. Pic: PA
Read more from Sky News:
Should we be worried about our drinking water?
Police previously said there were “no apparent suspicious circumstances” as the search was continuing.
The police revealed that the sisters – who are part of a set of triplets and originally from Hungary – visited the bridge where they were last seen about 12 hours before they disappeared.
They also sent a text message to their landlady on the morning they vanished, indicating they would not be returning to the flat.
UK
More British people than ever trapped in modern slavery – as Sky News joins police on abattoir raid
More British people than ever before are being trapped in modern slavery, according to the latest available Home Office figures.
A quarter of all referrals to the UK’s national modern slavery safeguarding scheme were related to British nationals.
Albanian and Vietnamese nationals were the second and third most referred, respectively.
But despite some police forces seeing a rise in charges for human trafficking, conviction rates remain proportionately low.
Sky News joined Greater Manchester Police on a raid at an abattoir, following intelligence claims that its owners were suspected of exploiting labour.
One alleged victim of modern slavery in the abattoir was living in conditions deemed “unsuitable for human habitation”, police said, just metres from where live animals were being slaughtered.
Pic: Greater Manchester Police
Police spoke to abattoir workers. Pic: Greater Manchester Police
The man, who was brought to the UK on a legitimate skilled worker visa, told police he was then forced to work long hours for little or no pay.
“The area where our survivor was required to sleep was essentially a converted office space… next to the main slaughter hall,” DS Lee Attenborough, of Greater Manchester Police, says.
“It’s a noisy mechanised site, with a pungent smell from the activity that goes on here and is really not suitable for human habitation as far as we’re concerned.”
Sheep at the abattoir searched by Greater Manchester Police as part of an operation to combat modern slavery
Police at the scene of the abattoir raid
On this raid, police did not identify any additional suspected victims of modern slavery.
But authorities warn that these types of environments are typically where they find the most people who need their help.
Following the abattoir raid, a man and a woman, both in their 30s, were arrested on suspicion of human trafficking and an offence of slavery, servitude and forced or compulsory labour on Friday evening.
An Albanian national, also in his thirties, was arrested at the same abattoir after he tried to evade police, fleeing from the site and hiding on a nearby roof, DS Attenborough said.
Read more from Sky News:
Woman’s body found near where sisters vanished
Family want reinvestigation into abuse victim’s death
Man jailed after XL bully attacked girl
Police detained people during the abattoir search
A Greater Manchester Police officer during the abattoir search
Darren Wright from the Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority said: “Abattoirs, farms, takeaways – anywhere there’s money to be made you usually find exploitation.
“It’s all about telling these potential victims what support we can offer and what support we can offer to gain their trust.
“But by the very nature of the job, they are very distrustful.”
UK
Mum of baby with rare blood disorder HLH urges people to sign stem cell register in bid to save daughter’s life
The mother of a baby girl who was diagnosed with a rare blood disorder has urged people to sign the stem cell register in a bid to save her daughter’s life.
Doctors initially suspected a viral infection when three-month-old Dolcie-Mae Edwards-Raymond, from Newport in South Wales, fell ill and failed to gain weight shortly after she was born.
However, when she was just a month old, her parents Courtney-Jade Edwards, 22, and Ashley David Raymond, 28, were told she has hemophagocytic lymphohistiocystosis (HLH).
The immune deficiency disorder occurs when certain types of white blood cells, known as histiocytes and lymphocytes, become overactive and attack the body.
It can be life-threatening if left untreated or not diagnosed promptly.
Following her diagnosis, Dolcie-Mae was airlifted to the Royal Victoria Infirmary in Newcastle from her home where she is receiving specialist treatment.
She will remain in hospital until a matching stem cell donor can be found.
Courtney-Jade Edwards and Ashley Raymond with their daughter Dolcie-Mae. Pic: PA
Ms Edwards said: “No family should have to go through such an awful journey, watching their child fight a battle bigger than themselves.
“You could help give families like ours a chance to make memories by signing up to the register today.
“When Dolcie-Mae’s dad, Ashley, and I found out our daughter had HLH we were devastated. We had no idea about this rare blood disorder until she was diagnosed.
“To hear that our daughter’s body was attacking itself was just so heartbreaking. Knowing there was absolutely nothing we could do but sit beside her and pray for better days was awful, leaving us feeling so helpless.”
The family are now appealing for people between the ages of 16 and 30 to join the Anthony Nolan stem cell register to find a donor for Dolcie-Mae.
“Help give patients like my baby girl a second chance at life,” Ms Edwards said.
“A stem cell transplant from a stranger, someone like you, can be their only hope. Please join the stem cell register.”
Read more:
Champion figure skaters on crashed plane
UK and US defence secretaries speak for first time
Natalie Cassidy to leave EastEnders after more than 30 years
Pic: PA
Charlotte Cunliffe, director of register development at Anthony Nolan, said: “It’s heartbreaking to think about what little Dolcie-Mae and her family are going through and we are supporting them through this uncertain time.
“At Anthony Nolan we give hope to families affected by blood cancers and disorders, but we can’t do it without the lifesavers that sign up to our register.
“If you are aged 16-30, please sign up to the Anthony Nolan register online and send back your swabs. You could be the match that someone like baby Dolcie-Mae needs to survive.”
According to a study published in 2022, there were 1,674 people with HLH diagnosed in England between 2003 and 2018
There are two types of HLH.
One is inherited and usually affects babies under the age of one, while secondary HLH is caused by infections and usually happens after age six.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports10 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway