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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had pleaded for military aid, and the West responded.

The stage was set for a spring offensive in the latest phase of Ukraine‘s efforts to liberate its lands.

However, weeks have passed since modern tanks and weapons were delivered to Ukraine, providing invaluable time for Russia to put together robust physical defences.

Putin ‘calls off annual news conference in illustration of his decline’ – Ukraine latest

Why has Mr Zelenskyy delayed the start of the operation, and will that delay compromise the effectiveness of their spring offensive?

Although fighting continued throughout the winter, poor weather affects warfare – 60-tonne tanks cannot operate off-road effectively unless the ground is dry, so any offence over the winter was constrained.

Instead, Mr Zelenskyy used the winter to persuade the West that Ukraine had the ability and determination to prevail over the much larger Russian army – all he needed were the tanks, weapons and ammunition required to do the job.

The West obliged.

Ukrainian forces then needed time to become familiar with their new Western military equipment. Alongside this, Ukraine has been recruiting and training tens of thousands of new recruits, with much of that training being conducted abroad.

However, any delay has also helped Russia prepare and build more robust and comprehensive defences, and disrupt Ukraine’s plans.

The destruction of the Khakovka dam this week protected Russia’s flank in Kherson from Ukrainian assault. But, the Ukrainian military will probably have anticipated that eventuality, since the Russians had set demolition charges on the dam since their occupation early last year.

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What dam explosion evidence proves

Russia very likely to inflict significant casualties during a Ukrainian counter-offensive

Preparations for a major military offensive are complex – they need to be conducted in secret, involve multiple options, include deception plans, and then it has to be weighed up as to which is most likely to succeed.

The Ukrainian military has proven very adept at pushing Russian forces out of half of Ukrainian territory once held, and there is an air of expectation that Ukraine’s counter-offensive could be decisive.

The West might think that the Ukrainians will roll back the Russian forces, but that is only one possible outcome. Russia is – after all – a superpower, and has significant resources available.

It has had time to establish formidable defensive obstacles, and Ukraine will expect to suffer three times as many casualties on offence compared to the Russians on defence.

Russia is very likely to inflict significant casualties on Ukraine, and if the tide swings in Russia’s favour they might even decide to mount their own counter-offensive to exploit Ukrainian vulnerability.

Read more:
Putin’s attacks on Kyiv show his emotions are overriding military strategy
Will F-16 jets pose a credible threat to the Russian Air Force?

How Zelenskyy faces difficult call of weighing up risks of an offensive

Military operations are always risky, prone to unpredictability, and are highly dependent on initiative and momentum.

The anniversary of D-Day was earlier this week – the first phase of the WWII operation to liberate Europe. Germany knew that the allies planned to attack, but like the Russian forces awaiting the Ukraine offensive, they did not know where, or when the attack would occur.

On the eve of D-Day, then prime minister Winston Churchill dined with his wife Clementine, and observed that by supper the following evening, 20,000 soldiers could have perished on the beaches of Normandy.

Even with decades of military and political experience, Churchill felt the heavy burden of responsibility on his shoulders.

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Did Russia ‘blow the dam’ early?

Mr Zelenskyy will know the risks and will want to ensure plans are complete and ready before commencing offensive action. However, in war, 90% often has to be “good enough”.

The difficult call of whether to go ahead is a mix of objective and subjective metrics which relies heavily on experience and judgement.

Mr Zelenskyy has proven to be an outstanding wartime leader, but he has very limited military experience. He was a politician for three years – and prior to that, he was an actor and comedian.

Although he has very capable military advisers, even they lack experience in this field.

The forthcoming Ukrainian offensive might well prove decisive. However, the stakes could not be higher for the nation of Ukraine or its leadership.

Little wonder that Mr Zelenskyy has taken some time to be satisfied that the potential benefits outweigh the huge risks.

The West will be hoping that this has been time well spent.

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Lack of heavy rescue equipment into Gaza leaves hundreds to die slow deaths under rubble

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Lack of heavy rescue equipment into Gaza leaves hundreds to die slow deaths under rubble

It was in the evening that the bombing started to intensify.

Salah Jundia, his father and brothers huddled together in their home in Shujaiyya, just east of Gaza City, trying to work out what to do.

It was too risky for them to leave at night. There were a lot of them too. Extended family living across four storeys. They decided they would wait until after dawn prayers.

The explosion tore through the building just before 5am, collapsing one storey on to the next.

The remains of where the family lived - where loved ones were trapped beneath the rubble
Image:
The aftermath of Israel’s bombing campaign in Shujaiyya, just east of Gaza City

Salah Jundia
Image:
Salah Jundia

Jundia says he survived because pieces of bedroom furniture fell on top of him.

Then he looked for his father and brothers.

“I found one of them calling for help. I removed the rubble covering him with my hands. Then I saw another brother covered in rubble but he was dead,” he told Sky News.

Jundia added: “My father was also dead. My other brother was also dead. We got them out and that is when I saw that the whole building had collapsed.”

Over the next few hours, they scrambled to rescue who they could.

An aunt and uncle and one of their children, Shaimaa. Uncle Imad and his son Mohammad. The bodies of Montasir and Mustaf.

One of the child victims of the attack on the home in Gaza City
Image:
One of the child victims of the attack on the home near the Gaza City

One of the child victims of the attack
Image:
Another one of child victims of the attack

Jundia says he could hear cries for help, but they were coming from deep in the rubble and were impossible to reach.

The rescue teams on site – civil defence they are called – did not have the kit to clear through three floors of 500 square metres, 30cm slabs of concrete.

Palestinians drilling to try and reach the people trapped below the rubble
Image:
Rescuers drilling to try and reach the people trapped below the rubble

Efforts to free those trapped beneath the rubble in Gaza City
Image:
Efforts to free those trapped beneath the rubble near the Gaza City

In the afternoon, Jundia says Israel’s Defence Forces (IDF) told rescue teams to leave as they would be resuming their bombardment.

Jundia buried the bodies he had managed to pull out but he knew 15 of his family members, 12 of them children, were still somewhere inside the rubble, still crying for help.

He made a desperate video appeal, begging the Red Cross and Arab countries to pressure Israel to grant access to the site. It was picked up on a few social media accounts.

Israel won’t allow heavy equipment into Gaza. No diggers or bulldozers, nor the fuel or generators to run them.

They say it will fall into Hamas’s hands.

It was a major sticking point during the ceasefire and it is a major issue now as the bombardment continues, given the fact that hundreds if not thousands of civilians might survive if there were the equipment to extract them.

Members of Salah Jundia's family left alive after the attack
Image:
Members of Salah Jundia’s family left alive after the attack

Salah Jundia and his family
Image:
Salah Jundia and his surviving family

Civil defence trying to get to the Jundia family home over the next few days were halted because the IDF were in the vicinity. A family friend tried himself and was killed.

The footage that our camera teams have shot in Shujaiyya over the past two weeks shows how civil defence teams struggle to save those who are trapped and injured with the most rudimentary of equipment – plastering trowels, sledgehammers, ropes and small drills.

“The tight siege stops civil defence equipment from getting in,” says one.

They added: “So we are taking much longer to respond to these events. Time is a factor in getting these people out. So we call immediately for the necessary equipment to be allowed in for the civil defence to use.”

The IDF say they are investigating the circumstances around the Jundia family as a result of our enquiries.

In relation to the access of heavy equipment into Gaza, they say they work closely with international aid organisations to enable the delivery of humanitarian activities in accordance with international law.

The last contact Jundia had from beneath the rubble was a phone call from his uncle Ziad, three days after the strike.

“The line was open for 25 seconds then it went dead. We don’t know what happened. We tried to call, but there was no answer,” he says.

He and his family were displaced several times before they returned home to Shujaiyya – to Rafah in the south, then Khan Younis and Deir al-Balah.

Along the way, Jundia lost one brother and a nephew to Israeli bombs.

Read more:
Israeli air strike hits Gaza hospital
Red dye dumped into US embassy in Israel protest
Israel shot at ambulances over ‘perceived threat’

“We were happy and all the family came back. We went back to our house. It was damaged, but we improvised and we lived in it. We have nothing to do with the resistance. We are not interested in wars. But we have been gravely harmed,” he says.

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China’s economy surges, but tariffs effect is yet to be seen

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China's economy surges, but tariffs effect is yet to be seen

China’s economy performed better than expected in the first quarter of the year – but it reflects a moment in time before the explosive trade war with the US, which has seen the world’s two biggest economies effectively decouple.

Economists had predicted that gross domestic product would grow by about 5.1% in January to March, compared with a year earlier. In the end, it grew 5.4%.

But these impressive figures obscure the very serious challenges China’s economy is facing in the wake of Donald Tump’s trade war – and it is almost certain growth will not remain this strong as the year goes on.

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Bobble-headed Trump explains China-US tariffs

The worst of Trump’s tariffs came into force in April, meaning they were not reflected in these figures.

In Q1, China faced an initial 10% tariff on all its exports to the US – which was then raised to 20% from 10 March.

But Beijing had planned and prepared for taxes at that level, and thus the impact was pretty minimal.

Growth was also propelled by the fact that exporters rushed to deliver orders in bulk before the tariffs came into force.

More on China

In fact, exports surged a remarkable 12% in March compared to a year earlier, a rate that will not be sustained.

Read more from Sky News:
White House looking at new trade deals
The art of doing a deal with Trump
US and UK ‘working hard’ on agreement

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Trump Tariffs: How the 10 days unfolded

Current tariffs on goods sold from China to America stand at 145%. Trade at that price is all but impossible.

Given exports account for a fifth of China’s economy, and consumer confidence domestically is still sluggish, there will be a significant hit to come.

Experts agree China will most likely miss its annual growth target of 5% – the question is by how much.

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Palestinian man forced to abandon loved ones trapped beneath rubble after IDF warning

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Lack of heavy rescue equipment into Gaza leaves hundreds to die slow deaths under rubble

It was in the evening that the bombing started to intensify.

Salah Jundia, his father and brothers huddled together in their home in Shujaiyya, just east of Gaza City, trying to work out what to do.

It was too risky for them to leave at night. There were a lot of them too. Extended family living across four storeys. They decided they would wait until after dawn prayers.

The explosion tore through the building just before 5am, collapsing one storey on to the next.

The remains of where the family lived - where loved ones were trapped beneath the rubble
Image:
The remains of Salah Jundia’s home in Shujaiyya, just east of Gaza City

Salah Jundia
Image:
Salah Jundia

Jundia says he survived because pieces of bedroom furniture fell on top of him.

Then he looked for his father and brothers.

“I found one of them calling for help. I removed the rubble covering him with my hands. Then I saw another brother covered in rubble but he was dead,” he told Sky News.

Jundia added: “My father was also dead. My other brother was also dead. We got them out and that is when I saw that the whole building had collapsed.”

Over the next few hours, they scrambled to rescue who they could.

One of the child victims of the attack on the home in Gaza City
Image:
One of the child victims of the attack on the home near the Gaza City

One of the child victims of the attack
Image:
Another one of child victims of the attack

An aunt and uncle and one of their children, Shaimaa. Uncle Imad and his son Mohammad. The bodies of Montasir and Mustaf.

Jundia says he could hear cries for help, but they were coming from deep in the rubble and were impossible to reach.

The rescue teams on site – civil defence they are called – did not have the kit to clear through three floors of 500 square metres, 30cm slabs of concrete.

Palestinians drilling to try and reach the people trapped below the rubble
Image:
Rescuers drilling to try and reach the people trapped below the rubble

Efforts to free those trapped beneath the rubble in Gaza City
Image:
Efforts to free those trapped beneath the rubble near the Gaza City

In the afternoon, Jundia says Israel’s Defence Forces (IDF) told rescue teams to leave as they would be resuming their bombardment.

Jundia buried the bodies he had managed to pull out but he knew 15 of his family members, 12 of them children, were still somewhere inside the rubble, still crying for help.

He made a desperate video appeal, begging the Red Cross and Arab countries to pressure Israel to grant access to the site. It was picked up on a few social media accounts.

Israel won’t allow heavy equipment into Gaza. No diggers or bulldozers, nor the fuel or generators to run them.

They say it will fall into Hamas’s hands.

It was a major sticking point during the ceasefire and it is a major issue now as the bombardment continues, given the fact that hundreds if not thousands of civilians might survive if there were the equipment to extract them.

Members of Salah Jundia's family left alive after the attack
Image:
Members of Salah Jundia’s family left alive after the attack

Salah Jundia and his family
Image:
Salah Jundia and his surviving family

Civil defence trying to get to the Jundia family home over the next few days were halted because the IDF were in the vicinity. A family friend tried himself and was killed.

The footage that our camera teams have shot in Shujaiyya over the past two weeks shows how civil defence teams struggle to save those who are trapped and injured with the most rudimentary of equipment – plastering trowels, sledgehammers, ropes and small drills.

“The tight siege stops civil defence equipment from getting in,” says one.

They added: “So we are taking much longer to respond to these events. Time is a factor in getting these people out. So we call immediately for the necessary equipment to be allowed in for the civil defence to use.”

The IDF say they are investigating the circumstances around the Jundia family as a result of our enquiries.

In relation to the access of heavy equipment into Gaza, they say they work closely with international aid organisations to enable the delivery of humanitarian activities in accordance with international law.

The last contact Jundia had from beneath the rubble was a phone call from his uncle Ziad, three days after the strike.

“The line was open for 25 seconds then it went dead. We don’t know what happened. We tried to call, but there was no answer,” he says.

He and his family were displaced several times before they returned home to Shujaiyya – to Rafah in the south, then Khan Younis and Deir al-Balah.

Along the way, Jundia lost one brother and a nephew to Israeli bombs.

Read more:
Israeli air strike hits Gaza hospital
Red dye dumped into US embassy in Israel protest
Israel shot at ambulances over ‘perceived threat’

“We were happy and all the family came back. We went back to our house. It was damaged, but we improvised and we lived in it. We have nothing to do with the resistance. We are not interested in wars. But we have been gravely harmed,” he says.

Continue Reading

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