The West gave modern tanks to Ukraine weeks ago. Why is Zelenskyy yet to launch an offensive?
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had pleaded for military aid, and the West responded.
The stage was set for a spring offensive in the latest phase of Ukraine‘s efforts to liberate its lands.
However, weeks have passed since modern tanks and weapons were delivered to Ukraine, providing invaluable time for Russia to put together robust physical defences.
Putin ‘calls off annual news conference in illustration of his decline’ – Ukraine latest
Why has Mr Zelenskyy delayed the start of the operation, and will that delay compromise the effectiveness of their spring offensive?
Although fighting continued throughout the winter, poor weather affects warfare – 60-tonne tanks cannot operate off-road effectively unless the ground is dry, so any offence over the winter was constrained.
Instead, Mr Zelenskyy used the winter to persuade the West that Ukraine had the ability and determination to prevail over the much larger Russian army – all he needed were the tanks, weapons and ammunition required to do the job.
The West obliged.
Ukrainian forces then needed time to become familiar with their new Western military equipment. Alongside this, Ukraine has been recruiting and training tens of thousands of new recruits, with much of that training being conducted abroad.
However, any delay has also helped Russia prepare and build more robust and comprehensive defences, and disrupt Ukraine’s plans.
The destruction of the Khakovka dam this week protected Russia’s flank in Kherson from Ukrainian assault. But, the Ukrainian military will probably have anticipated that eventuality, since the Russians had set demolition charges on the dam since their occupation early last year.
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What dam explosion evidence proves
Russia very likely to inflict significant casualties during a Ukrainian counter-offensive
Preparations for a major military offensive are complex – they need to be conducted in secret, involve multiple options, include deception plans, and then it has to be weighed up as to which is most likely to succeed.
The Ukrainian military has proven very adept at pushing Russian forces out of half of Ukrainian territory once held, and there is an air of expectation that Ukraine’s counter-offensive could be decisive.
The West might think that the Ukrainians will roll back the Russian forces, but that is only one possible outcome. Russia is – after all – a superpower, and has significant resources available.
It has had time to establish formidable defensive obstacles, and Ukraine will expect to suffer three times as many casualties on offence compared to the Russians on defence.
Russia is very likely to inflict significant casualties on Ukraine, and if the tide swings in Russia’s favour they might even decide to mount their own counter-offensive to exploit Ukrainian vulnerability.
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How Zelenskyy faces difficult call of weighing up risks of an offensive
Military operations are always risky, prone to unpredictability, and are highly dependent on initiative and momentum.
The anniversary of D-Day was earlier this week – the first phase of the WWII operation to liberate Europe. Germany knew that the allies planned to attack, but like the Russian forces awaiting the Ukraine offensive, they did not know where, or when the attack would occur.
On the eve of D-Day, then prime minister Winston Churchill dined with his wife Clementine, and observed that by supper the following evening, 20,000 soldiers could have perished on the beaches of Normandy.
Even with decades of military and political experience, Churchill felt the heavy burden of responsibility on his shoulders.
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Did Russia ‘blow the dam’ early?
Mr Zelenskyy will know the risks and will want to ensure plans are complete and ready before commencing offensive action. However, in war, 90% often has to be “good enough”.
The difficult call of whether to go ahead is a mix of objective and subjective metrics which relies heavily on experience and judgement.
Mr Zelenskyy has proven to be an outstanding wartime leader, but he has very limited military experience. He was a politician for three years – and prior to that, he was an actor and comedian.
Although he has very capable military advisers, even they lack experience in this field.
The forthcoming Ukrainian offensive might well prove decisive. However, the stakes could not be higher for the nation of Ukraine or its leadership.
Little wonder that Mr Zelenskyy has taken some time to be satisfied that the potential benefits outweigh the huge risks.
The West will be hoping that this has been time well spent.
It has been an extraordinary few hours which may well set the tone for a hugely consequential week ahead.
In the time that it took me to fly from London to Saudi Arabia, where President Donald Trump will begin a pivotal Middle East tour this week, a flurry of news has emerged on a range of key global challenges.
• On the Gaza war: The Trump administration has confirmed it’s holding talks with Hamas, which says it will release a hostage amid renewed hopes of a ceasefire.
• On the Ukraine war: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul – this announcement came minutes after Trump urged Zelenskyy to agree to the meeting.
• On the China-US trade war: The White House says the two countries have agreed to a “trade deal”. China said the talks, in Geneva, were “candid, in-depth and constructive”.
All three of these developments represent dramatic shifts in three separate challenges and hint at the remarkable influence the US president is having globally.
This sets the ground for what could be a truly consequential week for Trump’s presidency and his ability to effect change.
With his unique style, Trump is seeking to align numerous stars as he embarks on his first foreign diplomatic trip of his second presidency.
For days, it’s been unclear how the week ahead would unfold and which global challenge would be dominant.
The Saudi government has been instrumental as a broker in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Qatar has been a mediator in the Gaza war.
Trump will visit both countries this week.
President Donald Trump on Air Force One earlier this month. File pic: AP
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Putin under pressure?
On Ukraine, Putin held a late-night news conference at the Kremlin on Saturday at which he made the surprise proposal of talks with Zelenskyy in Istanbul this Thursday.
But he rejected European and US calls for an immediate ceasefire.
The move was widely interpreted as a delay tactic.
Trump then issued a social media post urging Zelenskyy to accept the Russian proposal; effectively to call Putin’s bluff.
The American president wrote: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly! I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!”
Within minutes, Zelenskyy responded, agreeing to the talks.
“We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses,” Zelenskyy wrote on X.
The prospect of Putin and Zelenskyy together in Istanbul on Thursday is remarkable.
It raises the possibility that Trump would want to be there too.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomes other world leaders to Kyiv. Pic: Presidential Office of Ukraine/dpa/AP Images
Israel’s war in Gaza
On Gaza, it’s been announced that US envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Israel on Monday to finalise details for the release of Idan Alexander, an Israeli-American hostage being held by Hamas.
The development comes after it was confirmed that Mr Witkoff has been holding discussions with Israel, Qatar and Egypt and, through them, with Hamas.
The talks focused on a possible Gaza hostage deal and larger peace discussions for a ceasefire.
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Gaza after around a year and a half of Israeli attacks. Pic: Reuters/Mahmoud Issa
Just days ago, Israel announced a new military plan to move back into Gaza.
When do candid talks become a trade deal?
Meanwhile, officials from the United States and China have been holding talks in Geneva, Switzerland, to resolve their trade war, which was instigated by Trump’s tariffs against China.
Late on Sunday evening, the White House released a statement claiming that a trade deal had been struck.
In a written statement, titled “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva”, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said: “I’m happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks… We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive. We had the vice premier, two vice ministers, who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson, and myself. And I spoke to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson, last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. So, there will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”
Beijing Global Times newspaper quoted the Chinese vice premier as saying that the talks were candid, in-depth and constructive.
However, the Chinese fell short of calling it a trade deal.
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A Qatari gift
In a separate development, US media reports say that Qatar is preparing to gift Trump a Boeing 747 from its royal fleet, which he would use as a replacement for the existing and aging Air Force One plane.
The Qatari government says no deal has been finalised, but the development is already causing controversy because of the optics of accepting gifts of this value.
Of all the fronts in Donald Trump’s trade war, none was as dramatic and economically threatening as the sky-high tariffs he imposed on China.
There are a couple of reasons: first, because China is and was the single biggest importer of goods into the US and, second, because of the sheer height of the tariffs imposed by the White House in recent months.
In short, tariffs of over 100% were tantamount to a total embargo on goods coming from the United States’ main trading partner. That would have had enormous economic implications, not just for the US but every other country around the world (these are the world’s biggest and second-biggest economies, after all).
Trump latest: US and China slash tariffs in trade war de-escalation
So the truce announced on Monday by treasury secretary Scott Bessent is undoubtedly a very big deal indeed.
In short, China will still face an extra 30% tariffs (the 20% levies cast as punishment for China’s involvement in fentanyl imports and the 10% “floor” set on “Liberation Day”) on top of the residual 10% average from the Biden era.
But the rest of the extra tariffs will be paused for 90 days. China, in turn, has suspended its own retaliatory tariffs on the US.
The market has responded as you would probably have expected, with share prices leaping in relief. But that raises a question: is the trade war now over? Now that the two sides have blinked, can globalisation continue more or less as it had before?
That, it turns out, is a trickier and more complex question than it might first seem.
Pic: AP
For one thing, even if one were to assume this is a permanent truce rather than a suspended one, it still leaves tariffs considerably higher than they were only last year. And China faces tariffs far higher than most other countries (tot up the existing ones and the Trump era ones and China faces average tariffs of around 40%, while the average for most countries is between 8% and 14%, according to Capital Economics).
In other words, the US is still implementing an economic policy designed to increase the cost of doing business with China, even if it no longer attempts to prevent it altogether. The fact that last week’s trade agreement with the UK contains clauses seemingly designed to encourage it to raise trade barriers against China for reasons of “security” only reinforces this suspicion. The trade war is still simmering, even if it’s no longer as hot as it was a few days ago.
Read more:
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And more broadly, the deeper impact of the trade rollercoaster in recent months is unlikely to disappear altogether. Companies remain more nervous about investing in factories and expansions in the face of such deep economic instability. No-one is entirely sure the White House won’t just U-turn once again.
That being said, it’s hard not to escape the conclusion that the US president has blinked in this trade war. In the face of a potential recession, he has pulled back from the scariest and most damaging of his tariffs, earlier and to a greater extent than many had expected.
World
Zelenskyy’s offer to meet Putin raises the stakes in this already high-stakes game of diplomacy
Diplomacy over Ukraine has become even more of a game of high-stakes poker.
In the early hours of Sunday, Vladimir Putin played his hand, rejecting demands for a ceasefire and proposing direct talks in Istanbul instead.
Read more:
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Ukraine ‘ready to meet’ Russia after Putin calls for peace talks
That was in response to the opening gambit made on Saturday by Ukraine and its European allies.
Sir Keir Starmer, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron among world leaders in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer said they were “calling Putin out”, that if he was really serious about peace, he should agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting on Monday.
And they thought they had Donald Trump’s backing until he made his move.
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Kremlin: ‘We don’t share Starmer’s view’
Late Sunday, he drove a cart and horses through claims of western unity, coming down on Putin’s side.
Ukraine, he said, should submit to the Russian leader’s suggestion of talks.
“Ukraine should agree to this – immediately”, he posted. Then: “I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin…”
So much for the Coalition of the Willing having Putin where they wanted him.
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Are Putin’s call for peace talks genuine?
Trump let him off the hook.
All eyes were then on President Zelenskyy, who has now in turn dramatically raised the stakes.
He will go to Istanbul, he said, and wait there for Vladimir Putin.
Over to you, Vladimir.
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The fast-paced diplomacy aside, the last twenty-four hours have brought Europe closer to a moment of truth.
They thought they had Donald Trump’s support, and yet even with 30 nations demanding an unconditional ceasefire, the US president seemed, in the end, to side with the Russian leader.
He has helped Putin get out of a hole.
Yet again, Trump could not be counted on to pressure Vladimir Putin to end this war.
If America is no longer a reliable partner over Ukraine, Europe may need to go it alone, whatever the cost.
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