Georgia and … who else? Breaking down CFB’s top 10 defenses for 2023
The spring has been spent breaking down which offenses (quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers) will define the upcoming college football season, so it’s now time to look at what ultimately wins championships: the defenses.
The Georgia Bulldogs broke their 41-year title drought, then followed it up by becoming the first back-to-back champion in a decade, behind a stellar defense featuring a number of future NFL players. It comes as no surprise that the Bulldogs come in ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s top 10 defenses, but which teams, if any, can challenge the reigning champs defensively?
The SEC is known for its defense, but the Big Ten put just as many teams in our top 10, while the Pac-12 and Big 12 were nowhere to be found. See who our reporters think will be the top defensive units during the 2023 college football campaign.
Ten writers voted on a ballot with 10 points to the first-place defense down to one point for a 10th-place vote.
Points: 100 (10-of-10 first-place votes)
Defense has been Georgia’s calling card during the past two seasons that have resulted in back-to-back College Football Playoff national championships. Naturally, many will look to that side of the ball when trying to forecast the Bulldogs’ success for 2023, which is why people still have high expectations for their defense.
Despite losing key players to the NFL draft again this season in Jalen Carter, Kelee Ringo, Nolan Smith and Christopher Smith — as well as Bear Alexander to the transfer portal — Georgia’s defense is still stacked. The defensive line is anchored by veterans Zion Logue, Nazir Stackhouse, Tramel Walthour and Warren Brinson. Mykel Williams is coming off a minor foot surgery and will also be a big part of this group after leading the team in sacks last year. The Bulldogs are also hoping for development from the likes of Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins and Christen Miller.
Outside on the second level, you have Chaz Chambliss with the most experience, and hopes that Marvin Jones Jr. gets healthy. Inside will be strong for Georgia, where Smael Mondon Jr. and Jamon Dumas-Johnson (who were No. 1 and No. 2 on Georgia in tackles last season) return. Jalon Walker will also be a key player among the group, having worked both inside and outside. The secondary is led by familiar faces in Javon Bullard, Malaki Starks (third in tackles) and Kamari Lassiter.
In total, you’ve got a defense that once again is expected to compete to be the best in the country, and we didn’t even get to the Bulldogs’ highly rated recruits coming in this season. Given how Georgia has been recruiting, it’s hard not to see it this way not only this year, but for the foreseeable future. — Harry Lyles Jr.
Points: 80
The Wolverines have reestablished their excellence on defense, overcoming key player and coaching losses after the 2021 season to once again finish in the top 10 nationally in points allowed (16.1) and yards per play allowed (4.7). They now have the continuity to build further as they aim for three straight Big Ten titles, another CFP appearance and a deeper postseason run. Second-year coordinator Jesse Minter, a Broyles Award finalist, will oversee a unit featuring an exciting mix of veterans, emerging young players and transfers, including linebacker Ernest Hausmann (Nebraska) and edge Josaiah Stewart (Coastal Carolina).
Michigan will miss Mazi Smith and Mike Morris up front but returns veterans Kris Jenkins, Mason Graham and Jaylen Harrell, plus sophomore Derrick Moore, an ESPN top-20 national recruit in 2022. If Harrell, Moore and others can spark the pass rush, the unit should be very solid across the board. Linebacker projects as a strength this season, as Michigan returns Junior Colson and Michael Barrett, who combined for 173 tackles and 5.5 sacks in 2022. Hausmann, who had 54 tackles as a freshman at Nebraska, is another nice addition.
Veteran defensive backs Rod Moore, Mike Sainristil, Makari Paige and R.J. Moten are back, and Michigan has high hopes for cornerback Will Johnson, another ESPN top-25 recruit in 2022, as well as spring standout Amorion Walker. Michigan’s CFP semifinal loss to TCU exposed some vulnerabilities, so there’s an obvious next step for the unit. The continuity with Minter and much of the personnel puts Michigan on track to be possibly an even better defense in 2023. — Adam Rittenberg
Points: 74
Alabama’s defense is under new leadership with Pete Golding leaving to take the Ole Miss defensive coordinator’s job. Veteran Kevin Steele takes over as Alabama’s coordinator, which will be his third stint working under Nick Saban. Steele knows Saban’s defense and knows the SEC. He was a Broyles Award finalist at Auburn in 2017, when the Tigers beat the Crimson Tide and played in the SEC championship game. One of Steele’s priorities is generating more negative plays on defense and forcing opposing offenses into mistakes. Alabama finished 11th in the SEC a year ago with only 17 forced turnovers in 13 games.
Not that Alabama’s defense will necessarily go as outside linebacker Dallas Turner goes next season, but if he bounces back with the kind of season he’s capable of, the Crimson Tide could go from very good to elite. Turner finished with eight tackles for loss (four sacks) last season and will play an even more vital role this season with his All-American outside linebacker mate on the other side, Will Anderson Jr., off to the NFL. The interior of the Alabama defensive line will be led by 6-foot-5, 328-pound tackle Jaheim Oatis, who is in the best shape of his career and poised for a monster season. Redshirt senior tackle Justin Eboigbe is a candidate for comeback player of the year after missing all but four games last season with a neck injury.
The Crimson Tide had their problems in the secondary a year ago, but junior cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry is back after showing up on some All-America teams in 2022. He has the skill set to emerge as one of college football’s premier cornerbacks. The player who caught everybody’s attention in the spring was freshman safety Caleb Downs, rated by ESPN as the No. 1 safety prospect and No. 11 player overall in the 2023 class. That’s good news for the Tide because their play at safety last season was shaky. — Chris Low
Points: 60
Penn State’s defense was one of the best in the country last year, and it should be again with coordinator Manny Diaz returning for his second season. The Nittany Lions allowed just 18.2 points per game, which was the seventh fewest among all Power 5 teams.
The defensive line will be the strength of the group, particularly on the edge, where Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac will be the stars. The staff also has high expectations for Dani Dennis-Sutton.
Diaz said the Nittany Lions will comfortably be able to play eight to 10 guys up front without a drop-off. While plenty of talent returns from last year’s defense, it lost some “incredible leadership” and “big-time personalities,” Diaz said. Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and safety Ji’Ayir Brown, who was the Rose Bowl’s defensive MVP, have left some voids.
“I don’t see those same personalities,” Diaz said. “That will be a big question for us.”
Penn State’s defense excelled at shutting down opposing quarterbacks last year, pressuring opponents on 38.9% of their dropbacks — the highest in the FBS. Penn State’s defense forced two turnovers per game, tied for the third most among Power 5 teams.
“We made a step a year ago, and obviously we play in a heck of a division,” Diaz said. “And so to try to take that next step and get yourself playing in that final four, it’s the smallest of margins, and sometimes are the ones that are the hardest to see. I think the players are understanding how every little thing matters, and trying to look for the smallest types of improvement.” — Heather Dinich
Points: 55
It is safe to say the Clemson defense was not up to its usual standard last season. The Tigers finished sixth (!) in the ACC in total defense — the first time in nine years they were not top two in the league. First-time coordinator Wes Goodwin had big shoes to fill in replacing Brent Venables. But it also did not help that Clemson had injuries to key players on its defensive line, including starter Bryan Bresee, and had difficulty stopping the pass with a secondary that gave up far too many big plays.
But there is reason for optimism headed into 2023. Clemson returns the best starting linebacker duo in the country in Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Barrett Carter, who combined for 169 tackles in their first year as starters in 2022. They showed the type of big-play capability that Clemson generally gets at linebacker — with 24 tackles for loss and 12 sacks between them. There is depth and veteran leadership along the defensive front, too, with Tyler Davis, Xavier Thomas and Ruke Orhorhoro returning. True freshman Peter Woods earned raves during spring practice and is expected to be a big-time contributor.
The secondary also should be better, with Nate Wiggins and Andrew Mukuba returning and the addition of freshman Khalil Barnes. The spring game showcased the potential this defense has headed into the season. Going into Year 2 as the defensive playcaller should be a significant help for Goodwin as well. — Andrea Adelson
Points: 41
No defense on this list bears a bigger burden than Iowa’s, which has overcome some baked-in recruiting challenges and its own offense to become a nationally elite unit. The team is 78-36 since 2014 and 51-23 since 2017, despite having an offense that ranks 91st and 93rd nationally in scoring over the same two spans. Even when Iowa’s offense plummeted to historic lows last season, the defense rose up, ranking No. 2 nationally in fewest points allowed (13.3 PPG) and sixth against the pass (169.5 YPG).
Since 2018, Iowa ranks second nationally behind Georgia in points allowed (16.1) and since 2017 leads the FBS in turnovers gained with 146. The Hawkeyes face some immediate challenges in 2023, having to replace NFL first-round draft picks Lukas Van Ness and Jack Campbell among others. But the group also brings back star power and experience, including cornerback Cooper DeJean (five interceptions in 2022) and defensive end Deontae Craig (6.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles).
Craig joins veteran linemen Joe Evans, Noah Shannon and Logan Lee to form what should be one of the nation’s best fronts. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker’s secondaries have been consistently strong and often excellent, and DeJean will lead a group that includes veterans Quinn Schulte, Jermari Harris and Sebastian Castro, and an emerging young star in Xavier Nwankpa, an ESPN 300 recruit in 2022. Iowa has some holes to fill at linebacker, but the unit’s history under Parker suggests another top-10-type season, especially since the offense can’t get much worse. — Rittenberg
Points: 34
Florida State has made significant progress on defense each year Mike Norvell has been head coach. Headed into 2023, the defense is expected to take an even bigger leap thanks to major contributors returning and yet another influx from the transfer portal.
Start with the players coming back. Defensive end Jared Verse could have gone into the NFL draft but decided to return to improve his already high draft stock. Verse was dominant when healthy last year, leading the Seminoles with 7.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss in his first season on the FBS level. Coaches raved about his work ethic and improvement this spring, and he is a key force along what should be a strong defensive front. Fabien Lovett also returns on the interior, and so does Patrick Payton, the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2022. Payton might be the most improved player along that front. Florida State also added Western Michigan defensive tackle transfer Braden Fiske to the rotation.
Among the transfers Florida State signed who should make an immediate impact is cornerback Fentrell Cypress II, a second-team All-ACC selection at Virginia a year ago. He should help a secondary that made strides, ranking No. 4 in the nation in pass defense. Florida State led the ACC in defense last season and ranked in the top 15 nationally, but it’s not hard to project this unit as one of the most dominant headed into 2013. — Adelson
Points: 31
It always starts right up front with any defense, and getting back a healthy Maason Smith at tackle is a huge boost for an LSU unit that finished fifth in the SEC last season in scoring defense (22.5 points per game) and sixth in total defense (354.6 yards per game). Smith earned Freshman All-America honors in 2021, but tore his ACL in the opener last season against Florida State while celebrating a tackle. The 6-6, 310-pound Smith is a force in the middle of that defense, and Mekhi Wingo showed a year ago he was also capable of being a dominant interior defender. Throw in one of the best pass-rushers in the SEC, outside linebacker Harold Perkins Jr., and the Tigers will be a load for any opposing offensive line trying to block them. Perkins had 7.5 sacks and three forced fumbles as a freshman last season.
LSU will also benefit from having defensive coordinator Matt House and his staff back for another season. The continuity and carryover from 2022 should allow the Tigers to play even faster and more instinctively, and one of the keys will be how well several transfers fit on defense.
Linebacker Omar Speights transferred in from Oregon State, where he was a first-team All-Pac-12 selection last season. There are some question marks in the secondary, although veteran safety Greg Brooks Jr. is back. A number of transfers will get chances to win cornerback jobs. Among them: JK Johnson (Ohio State), Duce Chestnut (Syracuse), Denver Harris (Texas A&M) and Zy Alexander (Southeastern Louisiana). — Low
Points: 29
Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M hired former Ole Miss defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin to the same position back in January 2022 to replace Mike Elko, who left to become the head coach at Duke. Elko went 9-4 in 2022 while Durkin and the Aggies stumbled to a 5-7 finish — the team’s first losing record since 2009.
He returns a group in College Station that didn’t live up to expectations last season (they were 123rd in run defense) despite still finishing in the top 25 nationally in points allowed. The Aggies return talented veterans on the line in Fadil Diggs, McKinnley Jackson and Shemar Turner, as well as players from a historic 2022 defensive recruiting class that includes linemen Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy, Walter Nolen, LT Overton, and Shemar Stewart.
The Aggies had many departures via transfer behind the line. But Chris Russell Jr. and Edgerrin Cooper are back in the second level of the defense, where Cooper led the team in tackles for loss in 2022. In the secondary, Demani Richardson and Jardin Gilbert give A&M experience at safety, while North Carolina transfer Tony Grimes and Tyreek Chappell look to hold things down at corner after Antonio Johnson departed for the NFL.
There’s not a lack of talent by any means on this A&M defense. It’s a matter of putting together a complete product on the field. — Lyles Jr.
Points: 12
First-year coach Luke Fickell already has proven defensive success in the Big Ten at the highest level, as he was Ohio State’s co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach from 2005 to 2016. His defense was a major reason the Buckeyes won the 2014 national title.
Now he’s trying to replicate that success at Wisconsin with coordinator Mike Tressel — and they’ve got plenty of experience returning to start with.
Four of Wisconsin’s top five tacklers from 2022 return, as do 73% of last season’s total tackles. The center of the Badgers’ defense should be strong with the return of linebackers Maema Njongmeta and Jordan Turner, the team’s leading tacklers in 2022. Njongmeta had 95 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks and an interception.
Wisconsin will be looking for new pass-rushers to emerge after the departures of OLB Nick Herbig and NT Keeanu Benton, but the Badgers return six other defensive players who totaled more than three TFLs in 2022.
“Numbers-wise defensively, they had been pretty good, especially the last few years,” Fickell said. “So that’s where you’re like, ‘OK, if there are going to be adjustments, it’s going to be a little bit harder to make sure everybody’s on the same page defensively.’ But that’s the benefit of having a really smart group. It’s a really highly intelligent group of guys. It’s always been the history of it. By nature, the school breeds that, which gives you a chance when you have change.” — Dinich
Others receiving votes: Illinois (11), Air Force (7), Utah (7), NC State (4), Kentucky (3), Ohio State (1), Oregon State (1).
-
Kiley McDaniel
The 2025 MLB draft begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, so it is time for one final update as teams lock in their Day 1 boards.
The drama starts right at the top this year, as the Washington Nationals have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 pick a week after firing their general manager.
In a year without a slam-dunk top player, Oklahoma high school star Ethan Holliday (yes, the son of former major leaguer Matt) and a group of college left-handers (LSU’s Kade Anderson, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle and Florida State’s Jamie Arnold) rank among the top prospects in the class.
Which direction will the Nationals go — and how will the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?
Since this is a last-minute update on what teams could do Sunday night, my writeups here are focused on what has changed since the previous edition. You can find a more detailed look at each team’s strategy in my mock draft 3.0. And remember, this is the order in which I think the players will come off the board, while my draft rankings are the order in which I’d pick the players.
Draft tracker: Results, analysis for every Day 1 pick
More coverage: Mock draft 3.0 | Big question for all 30 teams
Watch: Sunday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
1. Washington Nationals
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1
There have been a lot of rumors flying around over the past few days about what is happening in the wake of the firing of GM Mike Rizzo.
The industry feeling is that what has changed is 1) Anderson is a little more likely to be the pick mostly because Holliday is now a little less likely to be the pick, and 2) taking a bigger cut is a real option, with Eli Willits the main cut-rate possibility, though Aiva Arquette has also been mentioned.
All but Willits are advised by Scott Boras, and he’ll never tip his hand until he has to; now is not the time yet. Nothing is decided here and price will be a factor. If I turned this in 15 minutes before the draft, the Nats might still not have made the decision, so I’ll stick with what seems most likely, even if I don’t feel great about it. Landon Harmon is a rumored later round, overslot target.
For context, a scouting director for a team picking in the top 10 said I shouldn’t feel confident about anything happening in the top three picks specifically, adding, “I’m hearing there’s wars happening in all of those rooms right now” (as of Friday night). I ran that by another director picking up high: “Yeah, we’re hearing the same thing.”
2. Los Angeles Angels
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Rank: 6
I’m going to stick with Doyle because he makes the most sense for what the Angels have proved they’re looking for in recent drafts: a polished, quick-moving college player who will come at a savings.
I’ve heard at least six players seriously connected to this pick in the past few days: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Ike Irish and Willits. There are a couple more I’ve been told are under consideration who I’m not taking seriously as options here.
It could be any of these players based on final conversations and bonus pricing info on each player coming in at the last minute. Doyle has a real shot to slide to No. 9 or No. 10 if he doesn’t go here, so he is motivated to give a competitive number.
0:55
Liam Doyle’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee’s Liam Doyle one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
3. Seattle Mariners
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 4
The hot rumor of the past few days is that Tyler Bremner will be the pick here at big savings, and that holds up to further analysis because, in style, Bremner and Hernandez (long connected to this pick) are pretty similar.
It’s pretty widely known that Anderson is the No. 1 player for Seattle and will be the pick if he gets here, which still has maybe a 20-30% chance of happening.
If Anderson isn’t here, I think the decision comes down to Bremner at the most savings, Irish at a little less savings or Hernandez at the least savings, broadly speaking. Some sources have said Arquette, Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are also in play here, but they seem like tertiary options.
I think Bremner having more support in the No. 11-15 area that was reflected in the last mock will raise his price a bit to where Hernandez will be the pick, but this one is also wide open at the moment and will come down to a last-minute bonus price check if Anderson isn’t available.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rank: 2
There has been some waffling late in the process from sources who think maybe the Rockies wouldn’t pay the overslot price to get Holliday down here — but much of what I hear very late in the process is wrong or intentional misinformation, so I’ll stick with what I’ve been hearing for a literal year.
I think the other options for Colorado if Holliday doesn’t get here are all college pitchers: Anderson, Arnold and Witherspoon, with Willits and Arquette getting some mentions.
1:10
Ethan Holliday’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Rank: 3
Willits seems securely in play at the top two picks and possibly at No. 4, so the Cardinals landing him here would be considered a solid outcome. I think Anderson and Holliday are the primary targets for this pick and Willits is next up, with Arnold and Irish as the possible underslot options.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Rank: 5
It sounds like Hernandez or Willits will be the pick if either is here, so the Pirates are rooting for Seattle to either land Anderson or opt for a cheaper alternative to Hernandez.
Otherwise, JoJo Parker, Arnold, Arquette and Irish are believed to be the four leading options here. Arnold has the most late support, but this one might also come down to money.
I hope you feel sympathy for me having to do this in public when none of these teams know what it will do and won’t for hours.
1:05
Jamie Arnold’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Florida State’s Jamie Arnold one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Rank: 7
I think this will come down to Parker, Iris, and Billy Carlson — and I think Parker has the edge.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Rank: 9
I think the Jays will pick Parker if he gets here and will consider Arnold along with Arquette and Irish if they are still available here. This decision seems to come down to Arquette or Irish, with Carlson and Witherspoon also under consideration.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Ike Irish, RF, Auburn
Rank: 13
I’m getting some late-breaking info that Irish is more of a fit here than Hall, so shuffling a few picks that follow to accommodate for that.
Cincinnati seems to be the floor if Hernandez or Doyle slip, and otherwise the Reds seem to be the ceiling for Hall. Irish, Witherspoon and Carlson are also in the mix.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 8
Carlson’s range seems to be No. 7 to No. 12 (or maybe No. 14). I think the White Sox really want to land the Parker brothers (JoJo and Jacob) but can’t get JoJo to this pick.
The White Sox have been all over high school hitters all spring, and Carlson gets the nod over Gavin Fien.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 18
Bremner is picking up steam at this pick, and I think his floor is now Boston’s pick at No. 15. It’s a bit surprising he could go ahead of Witherspoon, but Bremner clearly has been getting interest in the top half of the first round that just hadn’t leaked out to the industry at large until late. I think this will be a college player, likely a pitcher, with Witherspoon and Brendan Summerhill also mentioned here a lot.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rank: 13
A few names shuffled around late Sunday, and now one of the Rangers’ top targets will be available. Marek Houston is also in the mix here.
I think Hall and Carlson are the targets here, but neither will make it to the pick, so Cunningham will become the pick, narrowly over Josh Hammond. I was hearing Cunningham would fit more 20-30, and the late chatter is that he has multiple homes in the teens. As with the White Sox, the belief all spring was that the Rangers want a prep hitter here.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rank: 10
In a last-minute update, I shuffled four players and Witherspoon fits here as a solid value.
Irish is in play at most picks starting at No. 2 all the way down to the middle of the first round, but I think his slide would stop here. The Giants have long been tied to Marek Houston and Charles Davalan (a long shot at this pick, but gone by their next one), with Andrew Fischer getting some love as well.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Rank: 25
I think this pick will come down to Cunningham or Sean Gamble in this situation; Gamble could make it to their next pick.
The Rays are tied to prep position players for later picks and could pull a shocker, as I projected in my previous mock, by taking Jaden Fauske here.
I think Hall, Carlson and Cunningham are the main targets, but none of them is available in this projection. Witherspoon is from Florida and is a great value, while the Rays still have a chance to land Fauske at their next pick.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Rank: 12
I’ll stick with Fien here as one of the steadiest projections all spring. It sounds like Tyler Bremner will be the pick if he gets here, but that’s now looking unlikely.
Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Rank: 20
Kilen fits the type of prospect the Twins have targeted for a while. I could see Houston, Caden Bodine or Gage Wood being options here, too.
Josh Hammond, SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Rank: 17
I think the Cubs are targeting in-game power here, and Hammond makes a lot of sense. They’ve scouted Quentin Young pretty hard this spring as well, but this is too early for that kind of risk. Xavier Neyens, Wehiwa Aloy and Wood all fit, as well.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Rank: 22
I think Cunningham is the target here, but he isn’t available in this scenario. Hammond and Bodine are also mentioned here and I think Slater de Brun will be the selection at Arizona’s next pick.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Rank: 21
LaViolette should go in one of the next three picks and fits Baltimore’s style. He won’t get to the Orioles’ next pick, but they may be able to float targets down there with their extra pool muscle, as covered in the previous mock.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Rank: 14
Summerhill has a very unclear and wide range of teams that are interested but could fit here. Daniel Pierce, Houston, Bodine and Coy James are all in the mix for this pick.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Rank: 15
I think LaViolette, Neyens, Southisene and Aloy are all in the mix here, along with possible underslot deals for Davalan or de Brun.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Rank: 16
It now looks like Bremner won’t get here, but the Braves have been tied to Wood for about a month. Otherwise, the hit-first shortstops like Houston and Pierce are tied here.
Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Rank: 19
Hammond seems to be the target, but he doesn’t make it to K.C. in this edition. I think the Royals will take a prep pitcher with one of their high picks, likely either Watson or Fisher, and maybe another later on Day 1. Eyanson and Wood are two college arms being considered.
Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (NC)
Rank: 69
James has a good shot at being a Tiger, and some of Detroit’s primary options go right ahead of this spot in this scenario, so I think this could be a curveball pick to most viewers.
Fauske is another possibility here, along with Kruz Schoolcraft, Pierce, Watson, Dax Kilby (more at their next pick), de Brun (same), Southisene and Fischer.
Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
Rank: 45
There’s lots of late momentum for Eyanson here, which is counter to the history of A.J. Preller’s time making picks for the Padres, so I’m going out on a limb.
Kilby on a cut, Young, Schoolcraft, Alec Blair, Josh Owens and de Brun all seem like high schoolers in the mix here.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 23
Philly normally takes high-ceiling high school players, but this is too good of a value to pass up. Matthew Fisher, Sean Gamble and Blair are the leading prep targets, and Fischer is also mentioned.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV)
Rank: 37
Kane Kepley on a big cut, Devin Taylor on a smaller one, Kilby and Watson are all options here.
Note: No. 27 is the final pick of the first round of the 2025 MLB draft. You can read mock draft 3.0 for my thinking and potential targets for teams making the comp and second-round picks that follow and see the full draft order here.
28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
31. Baltimore Orioles: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
33. Boston Red Sox: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
34. Detroit Tigers: Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
35. Seattle Mariners: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
36. Minnesota Twins: Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
37. Baltimore Orioles: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL)
38. New York Mets: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
39. New York Yankees: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
40: Los Angeles Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL)
43. Miami Marlins: Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (CA)
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
45. Colorado Rockies: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
46. Miami Marlins: Josh Owens, SS, Providence Academy HS (TN)
47. Los Angeles Angels: J.D. Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt
48. Athletics: J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
49. Washington Nationals: Max Belyeu, RF, Texas
50. Pittsburgh Pirates: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
51. Cincinnati Reds: Taitn Gray, C, Grimes Community HS (IA)
52. Texas Rangers: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
53. Tampa Bay Rays: Dean Moss, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
54. Minnesota Twins: Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
55. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Flemming, SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
56. Chicago Cubs: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
57. Seattle Mariners: Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
58. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
59. Milwaukee Brewers: Mitch Voit, 2B, Michigan
60. Atlanta Braves: Kane Kepley, CF, North Carolina
61. Kansas City Royals: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
62. Detroit Tigers: Dean Curley, 3B, Tennessee
63. Philadelphia Phillies: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
64. Cleveland Guardians: A.J. Russell, RHP, Tennessee
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chase Shores, RHP, LSU
66. Cleveland Guardians: Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa
67. Tampa Bay Rays: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
68. Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Dickinson, 2B, LSU
69. Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Compton, LF, Arizona State
70. Cleveland Guardians: Aiden Stillman, LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL)
71. Kansas City Royals: Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA)
72. St. Louis Cardinals: Joseph Dzierwa, LHP, Michigan State
73. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ethan Petry, 1B, South Carolina
74. Colorado Rockies: Easton Carmichael, C, Oklahoma
75. Boston Red Sox: Jake Cook, CF, Southern Miss
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike