The pace of basic wage growth accelerated to a record high in the 12 months to April, according to the latest official employment figures that lock in the prospect of further interest rate increases.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said average earnings, excluding bonuses, grew at 7.2% over the 12 months – up from the 6.7% recorded in March and higher than the 6.9% forecast by a Reuters poll of economists.
While that figure is still below the rate of inflation, it represents an improvement for household spending power given that the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation eased sharply to 8.7% in April.
The wider employment figures also showed a surprise fall in the unemployment rate to 3.8% when an increase to 4% had been expected by experts.
That was mainly down to a 250,000 increase in employment over the three months to April.
ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, said: “With another rise in employment, the number of people in work overall has gone past its pre-pandemic level for the first time, setting a new record high, as have total hours worked.
“The biggest driver in recent jobs growth, meanwhile, is health and social care, followed by hospitality.
“While there has been another drop in the number of people neither working nor looking for work, which is now falling right across the age range, those outside the jobs market due to long-term sickness continues to rise, to a new record.
“In cash terms, basic pay is now growing at its fastest since current records began, apart from the period when the figures were distorted by the pandemic.
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The better than expected wage figures can be partly explained by increases to minimum wage levels, of up to almost 10%, that came into effect in April.
The government agreed the increases to help the lowest-paid combat the cost of living crisis.
However, Bank of England rate-setters want to see the ONS wage figure fall rather than rise, and would be expected to cite the data as a reason to hike Bank rate again when it meets next week.
There have been 12 consecutive rate increases to date to help combat inflation.
Governor Andrew Bailey has spoken often of fears that wage increases to offset the rate of inflation can fuel the pace of price growth – inflation – by boosting demand in the economy.
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Cost of living pain still to come
Such an economic argument has been dismissed by trade unions seeking improved pay deals in both the public and private sectors.
The hikes in Bank rate are largely responsible for wider borrowing costs, such as mortgages, going up with the UK boss of HSBC telling Sky News on Monday that there is no sign of fixed rate costs starting to go back in the right direction because inflation has proved so “sticky”.
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Mortgage providers have been temporarily pulling deals to account for rising interest rate expectations.
The Bank had already been widely expected to raise the rate next week given rising core inflation – a measure that strips out volatile elements such as food and energy.
It is seen as the best indicator of how ingrained inflation has become in the UK economy.
Economists and financial markets expect a 0.25 percentage point hike to Bank rate next Thursday, taking it to 4.75%.
But a third of market participants are now betting that the monetary policy committee (MPC) will go even further.
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there was evidence to suggest that the changes to the minimum wage rules in April will have distorted the wage figures and policymakers were likely to look beyond them.
“We think that year-over-year growth in average weekly wages will slow to about 5% by the end of this year, on course for a 3.5% rate in 2024.
“We remain unconvinced, therefore, that the MPC will need to increase Bank Rate all the way to 5.5% by the end of this year, as markets expect.
If you ever fly to Washington DC, look out of the window as you land at Dulles Airport – and you might snatch a glimpse of the single biggest story in economics right now.
There below you, you will see scattered around the fields and woods of the local area a set of vast warehouses that might to the untrained eye look like supermarkets or distribution centres. But no: these are in fact data centres – the biggest concentration of data centres anywhere in the world.
For this area surrounding Dulles Airport has more of these buildings, housing computer servers that do the calculations to train and run artificial intelligence (AI), than anywhere else. And since AI accounts for the vast majority of economic growth in the US so far this year, that makes this place an enormous deal.
Down at ground level you can see the hallmarks as you drive around what is known as “data centre alley”. There are enormous power lines everywhere – a reminder that running these plants is an incredibly energy-intensive task.
This tiny area alone, Loudoun County, consumes roughly 4.9 gigawatts of power – more than the entire consumption of Denmark. That number has already tripled in the past six years, and is due to be catapulted ever higher in the coming years.
Inside ‘data centre alley’
We know as much because we have gained rare access into the heart of “data centre alley”, into two sites run by Digital Realty, one of the biggest datacentre companies in the world. It runs servers that power nearly all the major AI and cloud services in the world. If you send a request to one of those models or search engines there’s a good chance you’ve unknowingly used their machines yourself.
Image: Inside a site run by Digital Realty
Their Digital Dulles site, under construction right now, is due to consume up to a gigawatt in power all told, with six substations to help provide that power. Indeed, it consumes about the same amount of power as a large nuclear power plant.
Walking through the site, a series of large warehouses, some already equipped with rows and rows of backup generators, there to ensure the silicon chips whirring away inside never lose power, is a striking experience – a reminder of the physical underpinnings of the AI age. For all that this technology feels weightless, it has enormous physical demands. It entails the construction of these massive concrete buildings, each of which needs enormous amounts of power and water to keep the servers cool.
We were given access inside one of the company’s existing server centres – behind multiple security cordons into rooms only accessible with fingerprint identification. And there we saw the infrastructure necessary to keep those AI chips running. We saw an Nvidia DGX H100 running away, in a server rack capable of sucking in more power than a small village. We saw the cooling pipes running in and out of the building, as well as the ones which feed coolant into the GPUs (graphic processing units) themselves.
Such things underline that to the extent that AI has brainpower, it is provided not out of thin air, but via very physical amenities and infrastructure. And the availability of that infrastructure is one of the main limiting factors for this economic boom in the coming years.
According to economist Jason Furman, once you subtract AI and related technologies, the US economy barely grew at all in the first half of this year. So much is riding on this. But there are some who question whether the US is going to be able to construct power plants quickly enough to fuel this boom.
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For years, American power consumption remained more or less flat. That has changed rapidly in the past couple of years. Now, AI companies have made grand promises about future computing power, but that depends on being able to plug those chips into the grid.
Last week the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, warned AI could indeed be a financial bubble.
He said: “There are echoes in the current tech investment surge of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. It was the internet then… it is AI now. We’re seeing surging valuations, booming investment and strong consumption on the back of solid capital gains. The risk is that with stronger investment and consumption, a tighter monetary policy will be needed to contain price pressures. This is what happened in the late 1990s.”
‘The terrifying thing is…’
For those inside the AI world, this also feels like uncharted territory.
Helen Toner, executive director of Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, and formerly on the OpenAI board, said: “The terrifying thing is: no one knows how much further AI is going to go, and no one really knows how much economic growth is going to come out of it.
“The trends have certainly been that the AI systems we are developing get more and more sophisticated over time, and I don’t see signs of that stopping. I think they’ll keep getting more advanced. But the question of how much productivity growth will that create? How will that compare to the absolutely gobsmacking investments that are being made today?”
Whether it’s a new industrial revolution or a bubble – or both – there’s no denying AI is a massive economic story with massive implications.
For energy. For materials. For jobs. We just don’t know how massive yet.
Pizza Hut is to close 68 restaurants and 11 delivery sites with the loss of more than 1,200 jobs after the company behind its UK venues fell into administration.
The company has said 1,210 workers are being made redundant as part of the closures.
DC London Pie, the firm running Pizza Hut’s restaurants in the UK, appointed administrators from corporate finance firm FTI on Monday.
It comes less than a year after the business bought the chain’s restaurants from insolvency.
On Monday, American hospitality giant Yum! Brands, which owns the global Pizza Hut business, said it had bought the UK restaurant operation in a pre-pack administration deal – a rescue deal that will save 64 sites and secure the future of 1,276 workers.
A spokesperson for Pizza Hut UK confirmed the Yum! deal and said as a result it was “pleased to secure the continuation of 64 sites to safeguard our guest experience and protect the associated jobs.
“Approximately 2,259 team members will transfer to the new Yum! equity business under UK TUPE legislation, including above-restaurant leaders and support teams.”
Nicolas Burquier, Managing Director of Pizza Hut Europe and Canada, called Monday’s agreement a “targeted acquisition” which, he said, “aims to safeguard our guest experience and protect jobs where possible.
“Our immediate priority is operational continuity at the acquired locations and supporting colleagues through the transition.”
The administration came after HMRC filed a winding up petition on Friday against DC London Pie.
DC London Pie was the company formed after Directional Capital, which operated franchises in Sweden and Denmark, snapped up 139 UK restaurants from the previous UK franchisee Heart with Smart Limited in January of this year.
Staff at the Bank of England are on alert for potential job cuts in Threadneedle Street after the governor, Andrew Bailey, warned of tough decisions about the institution’s future cost base.
Sky News has learnt that Mr Bailey informed Bank of England employees in a memo last week that it was taking a detailed look at costs, although it did not specifically refer to the prospect of redundancies.
One source said the memo had been sent while Mr Bailey was attending the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington.
Its precise wording was unclear on Monday, but one source said it had warned of “tough choices” that would need to be made as the bank accelerated its investment in new technology.
They added that managers had been briefed to expect to have to make savings of between 6% and 8% of their operating budgets.
The Bank of England employed 5,810 people at the end of February, of whom just over 5,000 were full-time, according to its annual report.
Those numbers were marginally higher than in the previous year.
The central bank’s budget, funded through a levy, is expected to be £596m in the current financial year.
The workforce figures include the Prudential Regulation Authority, Britain’s main banking regulator, which is set to get a new boss next year when Sam Woods steps down after two terms in the role.
A Bank of England spokesperson declined to comment on the contents of Mr Bailey’s memo.
They also declined to provide details of the timing of any previous rounds of redundancies at the bank.