Global oil demand growth will trickle nearly to a halt in the coming years and peak this decade, according to the International Energy Agency, with Chinese consumption set to slow down after an initial pent-up recovery.
“The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
In its latest medium-term market report, published Wednesday, the agency forecasts that global oil demand under current market and policy conditions will rise by 6% from 2022 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day in 2028 on the back of the petrochemical and aviation sectors.
Annual demand growth, however, will thin down from 2.4 million barrels per day this year to 400,000 barrels per day in 2028.
“The downturn in advanced economies renders the global outlook even more dependent on China’s post-Covid pandemic reopening being able to maintain its early momentum, which should eventually lift global trade and manufacturing,” the agency said, while stressing Beijing’s “pent-up” consumption will peak mid-2023 after a 1.5 million-barrels-per-day rebound but lose momentum to just an average 290,000 barrels per day year-on-year from 2024 to 2028.
An “unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows” and emergency releases from the strategic petroleum reserves of IEA members last year “allowed industry inventories to rebuild, easing market tensions” amid demand pick-up, the world energy body said.
On the supply side, the IEA expects oil producers outside the influential coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — to “dominate medium-term capacity expansion plans,” including the U.S. and other American producers. Global supply capacity will rise by 5.9 million barrels per day to 111 million barrels per day by 2028 in IEA estimates, with growth lulling amid a U.S. slowdown. This will lead to a spare capacity cushion of 4.1 million barrels per day, focused in OPEC heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Russian output remains “clouded,” with the IEA predicting declines as a result of sanctions on Moscow’s seaborne crude and oil products exports since the end of last year, along with the departure of Western companies that facilitated production. The IEA now sees Russian supplies likely to ease by a net 710,000 barrels per day for the six-year forecast period to 2028.
“Moscow’s ability to self-finance its oil industry operations and its access to Chinese equipment and services may stave off a far steeper decline. But a toughening of western financial measures imposed on Russia could also result in a sharper downtrend,” the agency said. It estimates that 2.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude has been diverted from Western consumers to now find Asian buyers, creating a “two-tier market.”
‘A real transformation coming’
The IEA continued to ring alarm bells over ongoing upstream oil and gas investment, which it predicts will reach its highest since 2015 at $528 billion in 2023, simultaneously covering demand and surpassing “the amount that would be needed in a world that gets on track for net zero emission.”
“Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition,” Birol said in a statement.
Toril Bosoni, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday that the global energy crisis that followed the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had “really accelerated” the transition away from fossil fuels.
“So, while we are still having strong growth and demand for oil this year as we’re seeing that last leg of the Covid recovery, over the medium term we’re really seeing that all these policy measures that governments have put in place [and] the changes that consumers are making for pricing and other reasons are making an impact.”
In a landmark 2021 report, the IEA had urged no new oil, gas or coal development if the world is to achieve net zero by 2050 — in a move widely criticized by several OPEC+ producers, who advocate for dual investment in hydrocarbons and renewables, until such a time that green energy can unilaterally fulfill global consumption needs.
“There’s a real transformation coming,” Bosoni said on Wednesday, citing the uptake of electric vehicles and energy efficiency measures across all sectors.
In its Oil 2023 report, the IEA notes that achieving the global net-zero emissions goal would require both policy and behavioral changes while observing the oil demand impact of electric vehicles.
“The adoption of tighter efficiency standards by regulators, structural changes to the economy and the ever-accelerating penetration of EVs are expected to powerfully moderate annual growth in oil demand throughout the forecast.” The IEA assumes more than one in four cars in 2028 will be an EV, with sales near 25.9 million.
Signage is seen at the United States Department of Justice headquarters in Washington, D.C., August 29, 2020.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters
Federal prosecutors in Brooklyn have charged the founder of a U.S.-based cryptocurrency payments firm with operating what they allege was a sophisticated international money laundering scheme that moved over half a billion dollars on behalf of sanctioned Russian banks and other entities.
Iurii Gugnin, a 38-year-old Russian national living in Manhattan, was arrested and arraigned Monday and ordered held without bail pending trial.
Gugnin faces a 22-count indictment accusing him of wire and bank fraud, violating U.S. sanctions and export controls, money laundering, and failing to implement legally required anti-money laundering protocols.
“The defendant is charged with turning a cryptocurrency company into a covert pipeline for dirty money, moving over half a billion dollars through the U.S. financial system to aid sanctioned Russian banks and help Russian end-users acquire sensitive U.S. technology,” Assistant Attorney General Eisenberg said in a statement.
Prosecutors said Gugnin used his companies — Evita Investments and Evita Pay — to process about $530 million in payments while concealing the origins and purposes of the funds. Between June 2023 and January 2025, he allegedly funneled the money through U.S. banks and cryptocurrency exchanges, primarily using tether, a widely used, dollar-pegged stablecoin.
Read more CNBC tech news
Clients included individuals and businesses linked to sanctioned Russian institutions such as Sberbank, VTB Bank, Sovcombank, Tinkoff, and the state-owned nuclear energy firm Rosatom.
To carry out the scheme, Gugnin allegedly misrepresented the scope of his business, falsified compliance documentation, and lied to banks and digital asset platforms about his ties to Russia. Prosecutors say he masked the source of funds through shell accounts and doctored more than 80 invoices, digitally erasing the identities of Russian counterparties.
Investigators also cite internet searches indicating he knew he was under scrutiny, including queries like “how to know if there is an investigation against you” and “money laundering penalties US.”
The Justice Department said Gugnin maintained direct ties to members of Russia’s intelligence service and officials in Iran — countries that do not extradite to the U.S.
He is also accused of helping the export of sensitive U.S. technology to Russian clients, including an anti-terrorism-controlled server.
Gugnin was profiled last fall in a Wall Street Journal article about high-net-worth renters in Manhattan, where he reportedly paid $19,000 per month for an apartment.
If convicted on bank fraud charges, he faces a statutory maximum sentence of 30 years in prison, but if convicted on all counts, Gugnin could be given a consecutive maximum sentence significantly longer than his lifetime.
Despite China’s recent warning, BYD is ramping up the pressure on rivals with another ultra-affordable electric vehicle. BYD launched the Seal 06 EV, starting at just over $15,000, as the price war in China appears to be getting out of hand.
Meet the BYD Seal 06 EV
The new Seal 06 EV arrives after the China Automobile Manufacturers Association (CAMA) issued a warning last week, stating an automaker’s recent price cuts are “triggering a new round of price war panic.”
Although the statement didn’t single out BYD, it’s pretty obvious who they are referring to. BYD cut prices (again) on May 23 by up to 34% across 22 of its most popular models. Its cheapest electric car, the Seagull EV, now starts at just 55,800 yuan ($7,800).
BYD is now turning up the heat with another low-cost EV rolling out. The Seal 06 EV officially launched in China, starting at just 109,800 yuan, or about $15,300.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
It’s available in three trims with two BYD Blade LFP battery pack options: 46.08 kWh or 56.64 kWh, providing a CLTC range of 470 km (292 miles) and 545 km (339 miles).
The electric sedan measures 4,720 mm in length, 1,880 mm in width, and 1,495 mm in height, approximately the same size as the Tesla Model 3 (4,720 mm in length, 1,850 mm in width, and 1,443 mm in height).
Like most new BYD vehicles we’ve seen, the new Seal 06 EV is equipped with its God’s Eye ADAS and DiPilot 100 smart cockpit system. However, unlike some of the more premium models, the Seal 06 uses a camera system rather than LiDAR.
The new EV joins BYD’s Seal lineup of vehicles, which includes the hybrid Seal 06 DM-i and the popular electric Seal sedan models.
Inside features a similar setup to BYD’s other new vehicles with a 15.6″ rotating center infotainment and a smaller driver display screen.
Although the Seal 06 EV starts at 109,800 yuan ($15,300), BYD promises “with over 33 hard-core standard features, the entry-level version is high-end.”
It features a few added amenities not typically found in entry-level cars, including heated and ventilated front seats, a panoramic sunroof, ambient lighting, and a surround sound stereo system. It even has a built-in refrigerator that can heat and cool.
Will it compete with Tesla’s Model 3 in the Chinese market? Although it features less range, the Seal 06 EV is half the cost. The base Model 3 RWD starts at 235,500 yuan ($32,800) in China with a CLTC range of 634 km (394 miles). Which one would you buy? Let us know in the comments.
After slashing prices again last month, another low-cost, but well-equipped BYD EV is arriving in China. Will the Seal 06 EV pressure others, like Tesla, to follow suit? We will find out shortly.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
The US solar industry is still booming, but looming policy threats could pull the plug on that momentum.
According to the new US Solar Market Insight report from SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, the industry installed 10.8 gigawatts (GW) of new electricity-generating solar in Q1 2025, with solar and storage making up a whopping 82% of all new capacity added to the grid.
And US solar manufacturing is also on a roll: The first quarter saw 8.6 GW of new module manufacturing capacity come online, the third-largest quarterly increase on record.
That growth came from eight new or expanded factories in Texas, Ohio, and Arizona. Meanwhile, US solar cell production doubled to 2 GW, thanks to a new factory in South Carolina.
Advertisement – scroll for more content
But the industry’s rapid expansion is under threat. New tariffs and the “Big, Beautiful Bill” passed by the House that would gut clean energy tax incentives are injecting serious uncertainty into the market. SEIA warns that if the Senate doesn’t act to fix the legislation, the consequences will be severe: factory closures, energy shortages, job losses, and higher electricity bills.
“Solar and storage continue to dominate America’s energy economy, adding more new capacity to the grid than any technology using increasingly American-made equipment,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “But our success is at risk.”
According to SEIA, if Congress doesn’t change course, 330,000 jobs could disappear, along with 331 planned or operating factories and $286 billion in local investment. Americans could also see $51 billion in higher power bills.
Tariff uncertainty is already rattling the industry. Anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) on Southeast Asian solar cells and modules, plus other tariff shifts, are adding to the instability. Meanwhile, proposed changes to clean energy tax credits would undercut long-term planning for manufacturers and developers alike.
“The 10.8 GW of solar capacity installed in Q1 2025 represents a significant portion of new US electricity generation,” said Zoë Gaston, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “However, our analysis suggests that the US solar market has yet to reach its full potential.”
And it’s not just analysts raising red flags. SEIA and Wood Mackenzie have downgraded their five-year outlook for every solar segment except community solar. Residential solar is expected to drop 14% compared to previous projections, and utility-scale solar is down 6%. If the clean energy tax credits are rolled back, that outlook could fall even further.
One major point of tension is politics. Texas led the nation in new solar capacity in Q1 2025, and Florida overtook California to land in second place. Eight of the top 10 states for solar installations in the quarter voted for Donald Trump in 2024.
That means the places most at risk if the House bill isn’t fixed are represented by Republicans.
SEIA says that if clean energy tax incentives are gutted, US energy production will drop by 173 terawatt-hours (TWh), and the country will not be able to compete with China in the global race to power AI.
The bottom line: The US solar industry is scaling up fast, but policy missteps could slam on the brakes just when momentum is peaking.
To limit power outages and make your home more resilient, consider going solar with a battery storage system. In order to find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check outEnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and you share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get startedhere. –trusted affiliate link*
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.