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Global oil demand growth will trickle nearly to a halt in the coming years and peak this decade, according to the International Energy Agency, with Chinese consumption set to slow down after an initial pent-up recovery.  

“The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

In its latest medium-term market report, published Wednesday, the agency forecasts that global oil demand under current market and policy conditions will rise by 6% from 2022 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day in 2028 on the back of the petrochemical and aviation sectors.

Annual demand growth, however, will thin down from 2.4 million barrels per day this year to 400,000 barrels per day in 2028.

“The downturn in advanced economies renders the global outlook even more dependent on China’s post-Covid pandemic reopening being able to maintain its early momentum, which should eventually lift global trade and manufacturing,” the agency said, while stressing Beijing’s “pent-up” consumption will peak mid-2023 after a 1.5 million-barrels-per-day rebound but lose momentum to just an average 290,000 barrels per day year-on-year from 2024 to 2028.

An “unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows” and emergency releases from the strategic petroleum reserves of IEA members last year “allowed industry inventories to rebuild, easing market tensions” amid demand pick-up, the world energy body said.

On the supply side, the IEA expects oil producers outside the influential coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — to “dominate medium-term capacity expansion plans,” including the U.S. and other American producers. Global supply capacity will rise by 5.9 million barrels per day to 111 million barrels per day by 2028 in IEA estimates, with growth lulling amid a U.S. slowdown. This will lead to a spare capacity cushion of 4.1 million barrels per day, focused in OPEC heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Russian output remains “clouded,” with the IEA predicting declines as a result of sanctions on Moscow’s seaborne crude and oil products exports since the end of last year, along with the departure of Western companies that facilitated production. The IEA now sees Russian supplies likely to ease by a net 710,000 barrels per day for the six-year forecast period to 2028.

“Moscow’s ability to self-finance its oil industry operations and its access to Chinese equipment and services may stave off a far steeper decline. But a toughening of western financial measures imposed on Russia could also result in a sharper downtrend,” the agency said. It estimates that 2.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude has been diverted from Western consumers to now find Asian buyers, creating a “two-tier market.”

‘A real transformation coming’

The IEA continued to ring alarm bells over ongoing upstream oil and gas investment, which it predicts will reach its highest since 2015 at $528 billion in 2023, simultaneously covering demand and surpassing “the amount that would be needed in a world that gets on track for net zero emission.”

“Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition,” Birol said in a statement.

Toril Bosoni, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday that the global energy crisis that followed the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had “really accelerated” the transition away from fossil fuels.

“So, while we are still having strong growth and demand for oil this year as we’re seeing that last leg of the Covid recovery, over the medium term we’re really seeing that all these policy measures that governments have put in place [and] the changes that consumers are making for pricing and other reasons are making an impact.”

In a landmark 2021 report, the IEA had urged no new oil, gas or coal development if the world is to achieve net zero by 2050 — in a move widely criticized by several OPEC+ producers, who advocate for dual investment in hydrocarbons and renewables, until such a time that green energy can unilaterally fulfill global consumption needs.

“There’s a real transformation coming,” Bosoni said on Wednesday, citing the uptake of electric vehicles and energy efficiency measures across all sectors.

In its Oil 2023 report, the IEA notes that achieving the global net-zero emissions goal would require both policy and behavioral changes while observing the oil demand impact of electric vehicles.

“The adoption of tighter efficiency standards by regulators, structural changes to the economy and the ever-accelerating penetration of EVs are expected to powerfully moderate annual growth in oil demand throughout the forecast.” The IEA assumes more than one in four cars in 2028 will be an EV, with sales near 25.9 million.

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Workhorse electric delivery vans arrive in Canada this spring

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Workhorse electric delivery vans arrive in Canada this spring

Following approval from Transport Canada, EV startup Workhorse will be bringing the W56 and W750 model electric delivery vans to commercial truck dealers in Canada as early as this spring.

Workhorse first showed its W56 medium-duty electric truck at Indiana’s Work Truck Week in 2023, and has sold the trucks to logistics and delivery companies like FedEx and Pride Group – which ordered more than six thousand of the electric vans in 2021, and continues to expand its fleet.

“This is a major step forward for Workhorse,” says Josh Anderson, Workhorse’s chief technology officer in a press statement. “Pre-clearance from Transport Canada opens up a large new market for our products throughout Canada, including with fleets that operate across borders in North America.”

As part of the approval process, Workhorse completed its registration as a foreign manufacturer under Transport Canada’s Appendix G clearance program. Transport Canada confirmed the vans’ compliance with Canadian Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (CMVSS) for both vehicles – but it remains to be seen if and how the latest tariff-driven trade war between the Trump Administration’s US and Canada will impact Workhorse’s plans to expand throughout North America.

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Despite that uncertainty, Workhorse execs remain upbeat. “We’re excited that our electric step vans can now reach Canadian roads and highways, providing reliable, zero-emission solutions that customers can depend on,” added Anderson.

Canadian pricing has yet to be announced.

Electrek’s Take

FedEx Places First Order for 15 Workhorse W56 Step Vans to Grow Zero-Tailpipe Emission Fleet
FedEx electric delivery vehicle; via Workhorse.

There’s no other way to say it: the Trump/Musk co-presidency is disrupting a lot of companies’ plans – and that’s especially true across North American borders. But in all this chaos and turmoil there undoubtedly lies opportunity, and it will be interesting to see who ends up on top.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Workhorse, via Electric Autonomy Canada.

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Liebherr developing giant, 140-ton Segway-style autonomous haulers [video]

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Liebherr developing giant, 140-ton Segway-style autonomous haulers [video]

The new Liebherr S1 Vision 140-ton hauler is unlike any heavy haul truck currently on the market – primarily because the giant, self-propelled, single-axle autonomous bucket doesn’t look anything like any truck you’ve ever seen.

Liebherr says its latest heavy equipment concept was born from a desire to rethink truck design with a focus only on core functions. The resulting S1 Vision is primarily just a single axle with two powerful electric motors sending power to a pair of massive airless tires designed carry loads up to 131 tonnes (just over 140 tons).

The design enables rapid maintenance, as important components easily accessible for quick servicing. Wear parts can be replaced efficiently, and the electric drive significantly reduces maintenance work. This helps to minimise downtimes and increases operational efficiency.

LIEBHERR

Because of its versatility, durability, and ability to perform zero-turn maneuvers that other equipment simply can’t, the Liebherr S1 Vision can be adapted for various applications, including earthmoving, mining, and even agriculture. There’s also a nonzero chance of this technology finding applications supporting other on-site equipment through charging or fuel delivery.

The S1 accomplishes that trick safely with the help of an automatic load leveling system that ensures maximum stability, even on bumpy or rough terrain. The company says this technology significantly reduces the risk of tipping while providing smooth and secure operation across various environments.

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Liebherr will show the S1 Vision at this year’s bauma equipment exhibition in Munich, Germany. The design has already been nominated for the bauma Innovation Award in the Mechanical Engineering category – and my money’s on it winning.

Electrek’s Take

This is such goofy, stupid fun that if it was wheelbarrow-sized I’d have three of them. I can’t imagine the insanity of watching one of these things roll across a job site with 100 tons of granite in the bucket – and will have nightmares about the kind of damage it could do if it flipped out like a poorly made Chinese hoverboard clone whipping a toddler across a living room … which, in fairness, would probably get a billion views on Instagram or TikTok or whatever.

I can’t wait.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Liebherr.

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Meet the newest EV from Hyundai – new HX19e electric excavator

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Meet the newest EV from Hyundai – new HX19e electric excavator

The HD arm of Hyundai has just released the first official images of the new, battery-electric HX19e mini excavator – the first ever production electric excavator from the global South Korean manufacturer.

The HX19e will be the first all-electric asset to enter series production at Hyundai Construction Equipment, with manufacturing set to begin this April.

The new HX19e will be offered with either a 32 kWh or 40 kWh li-ion battery pack – which, according to Hyundai, is nearly double the capacity offered by its nearest competitor (pretty sure that’s not correct –Ed.). The 40kWh battery allows for up to 6 hours and 40 minutes of continuous operation between charges, with a break time top-up on delivering full shift usability.

Those batteries send power to a 13 kW (17.5 hp) electric motor that drives an open-center hydraulic system. Hyundai claims the system delivers job site performance that is at least equal to, if not better than, that of its diesel-powered HX19A mini excavator.

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To that end, the Hyundai XH19e offers the same 16 kN bucket breakout force and a slightly higher 9.4 kN (just over 2100 lb-ft) dipper arm breakout force. The maximum digging depth is 7.6 feet, and the maximum digging reach is 12.9 feet. Hyundai will offer the new electric excavator with just four selectable options:

  • enclosed cab vs. open canopy
  • 32 or 40 kWh battery capacity

All HX19es will ship with a high standard specification that includes safety valves on the main boom, dipper arm, and dozer blade hydraulic cylinders, as well as two-way auxiliary hydraulic piping allows the machine to be used with a range of commercially available implements. The hydraulics needed to operate a quick coupler, LED booms lights, rotating beacons, an MP3 radio with USB connectivity, and an operator’s seat with mechanical suspension are also standard.

Like its counterparts at Volvo CE, the new Hyundai excavator uses automotive-style charging ports to take advantage of existing infrastructure at fleet depots and public charging stations. More detailed specifications, dimensions, and pricing should be announced by bauma.

Electrek’s Take

HX19e electric mini excavator; via Hyundai Construction Equipment.

The ability to operate indoors, underground, or in environments like zoos and hospitals were keeping noise levels down is of critical importance to the success of an operation makes electric equipment assets like these coming from Hyundai a must-have for fleet operators and construction crews that hope to remain competitive in the face of ever-increasing noise regulations. The fact that these are cleaner, safer, and cheaper to operate is just icing on that cake.

SOURCE | IMAGES: HD Hyundai; via Construction Index, Equipment World.

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