Global oil demand growth will trickle nearly to a halt in the coming years and peak this decade, according to the International Energy Agency, with Chinese consumption set to slow down after an initial pent-up recovery.
“The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
In its latest medium-term market report, published Wednesday, the agency forecasts that global oil demand under current market and policy conditions will rise by 6% from 2022 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day in 2028 on the back of the petrochemical and aviation sectors.
Annual demand growth, however, will thin down from 2.4 million barrels per day this year to 400,000 barrels per day in 2028.
“The downturn in advanced economies renders the global outlook even more dependent on China’s post-Covid pandemic reopening being able to maintain its early momentum, which should eventually lift global trade and manufacturing,” the agency said, while stressing Beijing’s “pent-up” consumption will peak mid-2023 after a 1.5 million-barrels-per-day rebound but lose momentum to just an average 290,000 barrels per day year-on-year from 2024 to 2028.
An “unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows” and emergency releases from the strategic petroleum reserves of IEA members last year “allowed industry inventories to rebuild, easing market tensions” amid demand pick-up, the world energy body said.
On the supply side, the IEA expects oil producers outside the influential coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — to “dominate medium-term capacity expansion plans,” including the U.S. and other American producers. Global supply capacity will rise by 5.9 million barrels per day to 111 million barrels per day by 2028 in IEA estimates, with growth lulling amid a U.S. slowdown. This will lead to a spare capacity cushion of 4.1 million barrels per day, focused in OPEC heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Russian output remains “clouded,” with the IEA predicting declines as a result of sanctions on Moscow’s seaborne crude and oil products exports since the end of last year, along with the departure of Western companies that facilitated production. The IEA now sees Russian supplies likely to ease by a net 710,000 barrels per day for the six-year forecast period to 2028.
“Moscow’s ability to self-finance its oil industry operations and its access to Chinese equipment and services may stave off a far steeper decline. But a toughening of western financial measures imposed on Russia could also result in a sharper downtrend,” the agency said. It estimates that 2.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude has been diverted from Western consumers to now find Asian buyers, creating a “two-tier market.”
‘A real transformation coming’
The IEA continued to ring alarm bells over ongoing upstream oil and gas investment, which it predicts will reach its highest since 2015 at $528 billion in 2023, simultaneously covering demand and surpassing “the amount that would be needed in a world that gets on track for net zero emission.”
“Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition,” Birol said in a statement.
Toril Bosoni, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday that the global energy crisis that followed the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had “really accelerated” the transition away from fossil fuels.
“So, while we are still having strong growth and demand for oil this year as we’re seeing that last leg of the Covid recovery, over the medium term we’re really seeing that all these policy measures that governments have put in place [and] the changes that consumers are making for pricing and other reasons are making an impact.”
In a landmark 2021 report, the IEA had urged no new oil, gas or coal development if the world is to achieve net zero by 2050 — in a move widely criticized by several OPEC+ producers, who advocate for dual investment in hydrocarbons and renewables, until such a time that green energy can unilaterally fulfill global consumption needs.
“There’s a real transformation coming,” Bosoni said on Wednesday, citing the uptake of electric vehicles and energy efficiency measures across all sectors.
In its Oil 2023 report, the IEA notes that achieving the global net-zero emissions goal would require both policy and behavioral changes while observing the oil demand impact of electric vehicles.
“The adoption of tighter efficiency standards by regulators, structural changes to the economy and the ever-accelerating penetration of EVs are expected to powerfully moderate annual growth in oil demand throughout the forecast.” The IEA assumes more than one in four cars in 2028 will be an EV, with sales near 25.9 million.
But it looks like the design refresh is still a transitional in Tesla’s production as the automaker is still taking orders for the previous version:
For the launch in North America and Europe, Tesla has only added a new “trim” on the Model Y online configurator for a ‘Launch Series New Model Y’, which is the version unveiled in China earlier this month.
But in China, only this new version has been available for sale since the last two weeks.
Tesla estimates that the new version will have 320 miles of EPA range. Compared to 311 miles for the previous Model Y Long Range AWD, the only version of the new Model Y Launch Series available.
Here are all the other changes with the new Model Y compared to the previous version:
Feature
Model Y
New Model Y
Starting Price After Est. Savings
$31,490 Available Now
$46,490 Available Starting March
Trims
Long Range RWD Long Range AWD Performance AWD
Launch Series Long Range AWD
Range
277-337 miles (EPA est.)
303-320 miles (est.)
Seating
First row: power recline and heated Second row: manual fold and heated
First row: power recline, heated and ventilated Second row: power two-way folding and heated
8 exterior cameras (includes a new front-facing camera)
Audio
Long Range RWD: 7 speakers Long Range AWD: 13 speakers, 1 subwoofer Performance AWD: 13 speakers, 1 subwoofer
Launch Series Long Range AWD: 15 speakers, 1 subwoofer
Connectivity
First-generation hardware
Second-generation hardware
Trunk
Power open
Hands-free power open on approach
Interior
Footwell and door pocket ambient lighting Wooden detailing with black interior
Footwell and door pocket ambient lighting Wrap-around ambient lighting Aluminum detailing and premium textiles
Climate
Tinted and laminated safety glass Power-actuated first-row air vents Manual second-row air vents
Tinted and laminated safety glass with metallic infrared reflective coating Power-actuated first- and second-row air vents
For the Launch Series, Tesla is pricing the new Model Y Long Range AWD at $59,999 USD. That’s $12,000 more than the previous Model Y Long Range AWD, which is still available to order.
Specifically for the Launch Series, buyers get a bunch of special badging around the car:
But they also get things called “Premium Textil Trim” and “Vegan Suede for Black Interior”:
Currently, Tesla is only offering the new Model Y in Stealth Grey, Pearl White Multi-Coat, Ultra Red, and Quicksilver, but they are all included in the Launch Series price.
Tesla is talking about the first deliveries of this new version of the Model Y coming in March in North America.
Electrek’s Take
This came sooner than expected, as most expected the launch to be closer to March based on how Tesla launched the Model 3 refresh last year.
But this is also different since Tesla continues to take orders for the previous version.
Tesla was likely worried about the Osborne effect and this strategy of starting with this more expensive version of the Model Y, the Launch Series, is going to help sales of the much cheaper previous version.
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Rivian (RIVN) plans to launch a new Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) this year to enable hands-free driving. The new feature is expected to be similar to Tesla’s Full-Self Driving (FSD). In 2026, Rivian will up the ante with an “eyes-free” system.
Rivian plans hands-free driving in 2025, eyes-free in 2026
At the new Rivian Space opening in San Francisco on Thursday, CEO RJ Scaringe revealed a few exciting developments to look forward to.
According to the folks at RivianForums, Scaringe said during the event that the company plans to launch a hands-free ADAS feature in 2025. Next year, Rivian will follow it up with an “eyes-free” system.
The big question is, will current Rivian R1S and R1T owners gain access? It could depend on whether you drive a Gen 1 or Gen 2 model. All Rivian models built through 2024 are considered Gen 1, while models 2025 and newer are Gen 2.
Rivian introduced the second-generation R1S and R1T last summer. They were “completely reengineered” with hundreds of hardware improvements, fully redesigned software, and more.
The upgrades include its new in-house autonomy system, Rivian Autonomy Platform. It’s powered by 11 cameras, five radars, and predictive AI.
Rivian R1T (left) and R1S (right) electric vehicles (Source: Rivian)
Rivian said the new platform is “10 times more powerful” than the old system. It also features 360-degree visibility with 8X the number of camera pixels than the previous models. Gen 2 models already include features like Blind Spot Monitoring and Highway Assist.
With the premium version, drivers gain access to Lane Change, while Rivian said Enhanced Highway Assist and other features were coming soon.
Rivian R2 electric SUV (Source: Rivian)
Although all Rivian R1S and R1T EVs include OTA updates, some features may require additional hardware or software not included on Gen 1 models.
Rivian hands-free and attention-free autonomous highway driving will be available on the upcoming R2 model. The smaller electric SUV is due out in the first half of 2026, starting at around $45,000.
Electrek’s Take
As a Tesla Model 3 driver, I can tell you that Full-Self Driving (FSD) is fun and can be helpful at times. I’ve used it on longer trips, like through the Blue Ridge Mountains, and it makes driving or sitting in the car a little more enjoyable.
Although the system still requires you to pay attention, it enables the vehicle to drive itself almost anywhere with “minimal driver intervention.”
The new Actually Smart Summon feature is one of my favorites. Through the Tesla app, you can summon your vehicle to come to you in a parking lot. The vehicle will then move around other cars, people, and objects to find you.
Other functions, like Navigate on Autopilot, will take over while the vehicle is on the highway, changing lanes (with turn signals) and braking or accelerating as needed.
For Rivian owners, it would be like an upgraded system from Highway and Lane Change Assist. The “eyes-free” system coming next year will likely have a few regulatory hurdles to pass before it rolls out, so it should be interesting to see what that will consist of. Check back for more info soon. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
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The United Arab Emirates is building the world’s largest solar and battery storage project that will dispatch clean energy 24/7.
Emirati Renewable energy company Masdar (Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company) and Emirates Water and Electricity Company (EWEC) are developing the trailblazing solar and battery storage project. Once it’s online, will become the largest combined solar and battery energy storage system (BESS) in the world.
Located in Abu Dhabi, the project will feature a 5.2 GW solar PV plant coupled with a 19 gigawatt-hour (GWh) BESS.
His Excellency Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, minister of industry and advanced technology and chairman of Masdar, said:
For decades, the biggest barrier facing renewable energy has been intermittency – to be able to source uninterrupted clean power day and night.
In collaboration with EWEC and our partners, we will develop a renewable energy facility capable of providing clean energy round the clock.
For the first time ever, this will transform renewable energy into a world-leading 1 GW of reliable baseload energy every day on an unprecedented scale – a first step that could become a giant leap for the world.
Masdar announced China’s JA Solar and Jinko Solar, two of the world’s largest solar panel suppliers, and Chinese battery and BESS giant CATL as preferred suppliers. JA Solar and Jinko Solar will supply 2.6 GW of solar panels each. India’s Larsen & Toubro and POWERCHINA have been selected as preferred engineering, procurement, and construction contractors.
Masdar says the project will create 10,000 jobs and doesn’t yet indicate a projected completion date.
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