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Global oil demand growth will trickle nearly to a halt in the coming years and peak this decade, according to the International Energy Agency, with Chinese consumption set to slow down after an initial pent-up recovery.  

“The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

In its latest medium-term market report, published Wednesday, the agency forecasts that global oil demand under current market and policy conditions will rise by 6% from 2022 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day in 2028 on the back of the petrochemical and aviation sectors.

Annual demand growth, however, will thin down from 2.4 million barrels per day this year to 400,000 barrels per day in 2028.

“The downturn in advanced economies renders the global outlook even more dependent on China’s post-Covid pandemic reopening being able to maintain its early momentum, which should eventually lift global trade and manufacturing,” the agency said, while stressing Beijing’s “pent-up” consumption will peak mid-2023 after a 1.5 million-barrels-per-day rebound but lose momentum to just an average 290,000 barrels per day year-on-year from 2024 to 2028.

An “unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows” and emergency releases from the strategic petroleum reserves of IEA members last year “allowed industry inventories to rebuild, easing market tensions” amid demand pick-up, the world energy body said.

On the supply side, the IEA expects oil producers outside the influential coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — to “dominate medium-term capacity expansion plans,” including the U.S. and other American producers. Global supply capacity will rise by 5.9 million barrels per day to 111 million barrels per day by 2028 in IEA estimates, with growth lulling amid a U.S. slowdown. This will lead to a spare capacity cushion of 4.1 million barrels per day, focused in OPEC heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Russian output remains “clouded,” with the IEA predicting declines as a result of sanctions on Moscow’s seaborne crude and oil products exports since the end of last year, along with the departure of Western companies that facilitated production. The IEA now sees Russian supplies likely to ease by a net 710,000 barrels per day for the six-year forecast period to 2028.

“Moscow’s ability to self-finance its oil industry operations and its access to Chinese equipment and services may stave off a far steeper decline. But a toughening of western financial measures imposed on Russia could also result in a sharper downtrend,” the agency said. It estimates that 2.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude has been diverted from Western consumers to now find Asian buyers, creating a “two-tier market.”

‘A real transformation coming’

The IEA continued to ring alarm bells over ongoing upstream oil and gas investment, which it predicts will reach its highest since 2015 at $528 billion in 2023, simultaneously covering demand and surpassing “the amount that would be needed in a world that gets on track for net zero emission.”

“Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition,” Birol said in a statement.

Toril Bosoni, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday that the global energy crisis that followed the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had “really accelerated” the transition away from fossil fuels.

“So, while we are still having strong growth and demand for oil this year as we’re seeing that last leg of the Covid recovery, over the medium term we’re really seeing that all these policy measures that governments have put in place [and] the changes that consumers are making for pricing and other reasons are making an impact.”

In a landmark 2021 report, the IEA had urged no new oil, gas or coal development if the world is to achieve net zero by 2050 — in a move widely criticized by several OPEC+ producers, who advocate for dual investment in hydrocarbons and renewables, until such a time that green energy can unilaterally fulfill global consumption needs.

“There’s a real transformation coming,” Bosoni said on Wednesday, citing the uptake of electric vehicles and energy efficiency measures across all sectors.

In its Oil 2023 report, the IEA notes that achieving the global net-zero emissions goal would require both policy and behavioral changes while observing the oil demand impact of electric vehicles.

“The adoption of tighter efficiency standards by regulators, structural changes to the economy and the ever-accelerating penetration of EVs are expected to powerfully moderate annual growth in oil demand throughout the forecast.” The IEA assumes more than one in four cars in 2028 will be an EV, with sales near 25.9 million.

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Kia’s electric van makes for the ultimate high-end people mover at luxury resorts

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Kia's electric van makes for the ultimate high-end people mover at luxury resorts

Kia wants your next vacation to be a little greener. The PV5, Kia’s electric van, is getting a new role as a high-end people mover at eco-friendly luxury resorts.

Kia launches PV5 pilot at Red Sea Global’s luxury resorts

You can use the PV5 as a daily driver, delivery van, or even to start a pop-up mobile shop, but now it has found a new use.

Kia launched a new demonstration project on September 29 with Red Sea Global (RSG), one of the developers behind Saudi Arabia’s new gigaprojects.

The project is “the first step toward smarter mobility” as Saudi Arabia aims to break away from its oil-centric economy.

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Kia will provide the PV5 Passenger model for the demo, but promises much more is on the way. The Korean automaker will also help train workers, teaching them about electric vehicles, new technology, and other clean energy solutions.

Kia’s electric vans will be used as customized people movers at RSG’s new resorts and wellness tourism complex in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Kia's-electric-van-resorts
The Kia PV5 electric van (Source: Hyundai Motor Group)

Breaking free from oil opens up a new market

The site, located along the Red Sea, is one of five gigaprojects designed to help the oil-rich nation reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

Saudi Arabia’s plans, part of its Vision 2030 strategy, include a futuristic new city in Neom, an entertainment complex in Qiddiya, a residential development in Roshn, and a heritage site in Diriyah.

Kia's-electric-van-resorts
The Kia PV5 electric van (Source: Hyundai Motor Group)

Essentially, Saudi Arabia aims to transition from relying on oil revenue to power its economy to generating profits from tourism.

“Saudi Arabia is a very important market,” Jeong Ho-geun, Executive Vice President of Hyundai Motor Group’s Future Strategy Division, said, adding that the PV5 pilot is likely just the start.

Kia's-first-electric-van-PV5
Kia PV5 Passenger interior (Source: Kia)

A PV5 cargo designed for resort logistics and a custom PV5 conversion model could also be in the pipeline, the company said, which would be used at RSG’s high-end resorts. The larger PV7 electric van, set to launch in 2027, is “a possibility.”

With the PV5 arriving as a high-end shuttle in Saudi Arabia, will Kia launch it in other countries for use at resorts? It wouldn’t be a surprise.

Kia’s electric van is already rolling out in Europe, South Korea, and other global markets. The PV5 Passenger and Cargo, designed for personal and business use, are available in parts of Europe and South Korea.

During its PV5 Tech Day event over the summer, Kia revealed plans to launch seven new body types, including a “prime” luxury Passenger model, an open bed (similar to a pickup), and even a light camper version. What’s next?

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Watch delivery rider in Chicago hilariously outrun bumbling ICE agents on an e-bike

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Watch delivery rider in Chicago hilariously outrun bumbling ICE agents on an e-bike

A video circulating on social media this morning has electric bike fans cheering and Homeland Security officers scratching their heads after a man who is reported to be a delivery rider appeared to evade a group of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in Chicago using nothing more than some quick footwork and an e-bike.

The short clip opens on a fairly routine city sidewalk scene, otherwise ordinary except for the group of around a dozen ICE agents, most with faces obscured and wearing a variety of mismatched uniforms and various military-style fatigues. There doesn’t appear to be any active law enforcement incidents or a clear reason for the large force, and the agents seem to be standing idly in a group on the sidewalk. The delivery rider can be seen walking his bike nearby and bending down to pick something up off the ground, which is followed by one of the agents lunging at him to try and grab him.

Startled, the man stumbles away, pushing his delivery e-bike with him and breaking into an awkward, zig-zagging escape. What follows looks more like a low-budget action comedy than a coordinated enforcement effort, as nearly a dozen ICE officers give chase in what looks like a confused herd. The video has been edited to add the Benny Hill theme song, further lightening the mood.

The rider, clearly no stranger to improvisation, darted past the agents while pushing his e-bike, sometimes switching directions to throw them off or using strangers as a screen to evade the officers, before finally hopping into the air and landing butt-first on his bike to zip away. The last few officers continued to chase the rider briefly as he increased the distance, before they eventually abandoned the pursuit and awkwardly returned to the sidewalk. The cyclist pedaled away, perhaps indicating that the likely throttle-enabled e-bike hadn’t even been turned on at the time.

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It’s unclear what prompted the attempted stop or if ICE agents were actually targeting the man specifically. Many have pointed out recently that such encounters are typical with ICE agents seen simply stopping people of color, often times delivery workers and other laborers.

One thing is for sure, though: As we’ve often said, e-bikes really may be the fastest way around a city, regardless of whether or not you’re being pursued.

Electrek’s Take

Obviously, if police are attempting to legally detain you, evading is not recommended. We don’t have enough context from the video to determine exactly why the ICE agents suddenly lunged at the man. From the video, the incident appears to have started after a single officer decided to attempt to grab the man, and not because he was the target of an investigation. Recent ICE roundups have been widely accused of selective enforcement, mostly preying upon people of color and in working-class areas.

ICE agents are only legally allowed to stop individuals if they have reasonable suspicion that the person has committed a crime, such as an immigration violation.

Electric bicycles continue to be one of the most effective ways to move quickly and efficiently around urban areas.

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Newmont Names COO Natascha Viljoen CEO, as Tom Palmer retires

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Newmont Names COO Natascha Viljoen CEO, as Tom Palmer retires

Gold prices were poised for a second consecutive weekly gain on Friday, driven by safe-haven demand amid tensions in the Middle East and rising bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates later this year.

Courtesy: Kinross

Newmont Corp. on Monday announced that President and Chief Operating Officer Natascha Viljoen will succeed Tom Palmer as chief executive officer, starting in January.

Palmer, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2019, will resign from the board and as CEO on December 31.

Viljoen joined the company in 2023 as executive vice president and chief operating officer, according to the company’s website. Prior to joining the gold miner, she served as CEO of Valterra and held leadership positions at BHP and Lonmin.

Viljoen will become the first woman to lead Newmont in its over 100-year history, according to the company.

“I want to express my gratitude to Tom for his mentorship and support, and to the Board for entrusting me with the responsibility to lead Newmont into its next phase of growth,” Viljoen in a press release.

Palmer joined Newmont in 2014 as Managing Director Indonesia before serving as the company’s Managing Director Asia Pacific in 2015, and chief operating officer in 2016, according to its website.

“After 12 years with Newmont, and almost 40 years in the mining industry, it is time for me to retire and hand over to Natascha to lead our Company through the next chapter in its storied history,” Palmer said in a statement.

Newmont earlier this month said it sold its stake in Orla Mining for $439 million as part of its divestiture program.

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