For years, the database software developer lagged behind tech rivals in building cloud technology that met the demands of the modern-day enterprise. But that’s changing, and Wall Street is quite pleased with what it sees from Larry Ellison’s 46-year-old company.
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Oracle shares climbed 4.8% on Wednesday to $122.24, closing at a record for a fifth straight day and the eighth time this month. The stock is up 73% over the past 12 months, outperforming all large-cap enterprise tech stocks over that stretch other than Nvidia. The shares are up over 50% in 2023, which would mark the best year for shareholders since the dot-com boom of 1999.
The company got its latest boost this week after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue, prompting nods of approval from analysts. Goldman Sachs upgraded its rating on the stock to the equivalent of hold from sell.
Within hours of the earnings report, Bloomberg declared that Ellison had reached the No. 4 spot on its ranking of billionaires, his highest spot to date. He surpassed Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates.
“Let’s give him credit where it’s finally due,” said Eric Lynch, managing director of Scharf Investments, which held $163 million worth of Oracle shares at the end of the first quarter, according to regulatory filings. “The upside case is finally coming through.”
The story that’s exciting investors these days? No surprise. It’s about artificial intelligence.
Prior to the latest rally, Oracle was largely viewed as a technology has-been rather than as an innovator. In the red-hot cloud market, it had lost market share to Salesforce in selling software to sales reps, and was a bit player in infrastructure as a service (IaaS), where Amazon, Microsoft and Google were leading the way. Oracle picked up significant business from TikTok and Zoom, but big names were mostly going elsewhere.
Now, Oracle is seeing accelerated growth thanks to the craze around generative AI, the technology that can craft images or text from a few words of human input. The company is a significant investor in Cohere, an enterprise-focused generative AI startup whose technology can power copywriting, search and summarization.
Cohere is valued at over $2 billion and ranked No. 44 on CNBC’s 2023 Disruptor 50 List.
On the earnings call, Ellison told analysts that customers have “recently signed contracts to purchase more than $2 billion of capacity” on what Oracle calls its Gen 2 Cloud.
After its market cap fell below that of the younger Salesforce in 2020, Oracle reclaimed the lead over its longtime rival the following year, and now it’s not even close. Oracle is worth $330 billion as of Wednesday’s close, while Salesforce’s market cap sits at $204 billion.
Oracle is even growing faster, with revenue in the latest quarter increasing 17% from the prior year, compared to 11% growth at Salesforce.
Cloud infrastructure revenue at Oracle surged 76% from a year earlier, surpassing growth of 55% the prior quarter. That’s one data point that analyst Kash Rangan and his Goldman Sachs colleagues highlighted in their upgrade.
The analysts said the acceleration is “a clear signal that Oracle’s advertised price/performance advantage vs. the hyperscalers is resonating with the market (both net new and existing customers), which should position the company for durable share gains despite its late entry into IaaS.”
Even with the cloud infrastructure growth, Oracle management called for no change to capital expenditures in the new 2024 fiscal year, which bodes well for free cash flow generation, the Goldman analysts said.
Like several enterprise-focused technology companies, Oracle started selling cloud-based versions of applications that clients had previously run in their on-premises data centers. The company expanded its reach with the $9.1 billion acquisition of NetSuite in 2016.
Rebuilding the guts of the data center was less straightforward, and Oracle quickly fell behind. In 2009, Ellison dismissed the rise of cloud-computing branding.
“Our industry is so bizarre,” he said. “You know, they just change a term, and they think they’ve invented technology.”
Ellison made a bad bet. Between 2010 and the end of 2020, not only did Oracle’s stock badly underperform Amazon, Microsoft and Google, but just buying an S&P 500 tracking index would have returned almost double what an investor would’ve have made on Oracle.
Oracle eventually came around to charging organizations for servers, storage and networking services based on how much they used, following in the path of the market leaders.
The company introduced the Elastic Compute Cloud in 2015, nine years after the launch of Amazon Web Services’ foundational EC2 computing service. Then, in 2018, Oracle debuted its Gen 2 cloud portfolio.
In October Ellison said he thought Oracle had been copying rivals, so he canceled the existing cloud effort and pushed for a new approach. As organizations look for ways to reduce IT spending, Ellison on Monday told analysts that Oracle’s cloud database can be faster and cheaper than what’s available from AWS.
Lynch, whose Los Gatos, California-based investment firm took a stake in Oracle in 2011, recalled that people used to poke fun of Ellison for his earnings call routine of reciting the names of small-time operations that had signed up for Oracle’s cloud services. The company was still appealing to value-oriented investors because it had a strong balance sheet due to a huge roster of legacy clients, and boasted stronger profit margins than many of its peers.
Now Ellison can reel off big brands using his company’s cloud. Oracle called out Dollar Tree, Exxon Mobil, and Pfizer as cloud customers during its fiscal fourth quarter.
Lynch acknowledged that Oracle appears to be enjoying its position within the AI gold rush and said he doesn’t expect such high growth in cloud infrastructure to persist.
For the time being, Ellison can enjoy his company’s bragging rights in Silicon Valley at a time when so many high-profile and once high-flying neighbors are downsizing for the first time in their history. Oracle has had some layoffs but a smaller number.
On Oracle’s earnings call this week, CEO Safra Catz took a minute to express gratitude to the company’s customers and employees.
“Some of you are new, and many of you have been with us for years, in fact, even decades, and I think you all see that our best days are in fact ahead of us,” she said. Catz then thanked Ellison “for leading with brilliance, determination and vision and allowing us to all be part of this incredible journey, which is just getting started.”
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets: The S & P 500 bounced back Friday, recovering from the prior session’s sharp losses. The broad-based index, which was still tracking for a nearly 1.5% weekly decline, started off the session a little shaky as Club stock Nvidia drifted lower after the open. It was looking like concerns about the artificial intelligence trade, which have been dogging the market, were going to dominate back-to-back sessions. But when New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested that central bankers could cut interest rates for a third time this year, the market jumped higher. Rate-sensitive stocks saw big gains Friday. Home Depot rose more than 3.5% on the day, mitigating a tough week following Tuesday’s lackluster quarterly release. Eli Lilly hit an all-time high, becoming the first drugmaker to reach a $1 trillion market cap. TJX also topped its all-time high after the off-price retailer behind T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, delivered strong quarterly results Wednesday. Carry trade: We’re also monitoring developments in Japan, which is dealing with its own inflation problem and questions about whether to resume interest rate hikes. That brings us to the popular Japanese yen carry trade, which is getting squeezed as borrowing costs there are rising. The yen carry trade involves borrowing yen at a low rate, then converting them into, say, dollars, and investing in higher-yielding foreign assets. That’s all well and good when the cost to borrow yen is low. It’s a different story now that borrowing costs in Japan are hitting 30-year highs. When rates rise, the profit margin on the carry trade gets crunched, or vanishes completely. As a result, investors need to get out, which means forced selling and price action that becomes divorced from fundamentals. It’s unclear if any of this is adding pressure to U.S. markets. We didn’t see anything in the recent quarterly earnings reports from U.S. companies to suggest corporate fundamentals are deteriorating in any meaningful way. That’s why we’re looking for other potential external factors, alongside the well-known concerns about artificial intelligence spending, the depreciation resulting from those capital expenditures, and general worries about consumer sentiment and inflation here in America. Wall Street call: HSBC downgraded Palo Alto Networks to a sell-equivalent rating from a hold following the company’s quarterly earnings report Wednesday. Analysts, who left their $157 price target unchanged, cited decelerating sales growth as the driver of the rerating, describing the quarter as “sufficient, not transformational.” Still, the Club name delivered a beat-and-raise quarter, which topped estimates across every key metric. None of this stopped Palo Alto shares from falling on the release. We chalked the post-earnings decline up to high expectations heading into the quarter, coupled with investor concerns over a new acquisition of cloud management and monitoring company Chronosphere. Palo Alto is still working to close its multi-billion-dollar acquisition of identity security company CyberArk , announced in July. HSBC now argues the stock’s risk-versus-reward is turning negative, with limited potential for upward estimate revisions for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. We disagree with HSBC’s call, given the momentum we’re seeing across Palo Alto’s businesses. The cybersecurity leader is dominating through its “platformization” strategy, which bundles its products and services. Plus, Palo Alto keeps adding net new platformizations each quarter, converting customers to use its security platform, and is on track to reach its fiscal 2030 target. We also like management’s playbook for acquiring businesses just before they see an industry inflection point. With Chronosphere, Palo Alto believes the entire observability industry needs to change due to the growing presence of AI. We’re reiterating our buy-equivalent 1 rating and $225 price target on the stock. Up next: There are no Club earnings reports next week. Outside of the portfolio, Symbotic, Zoom Communications , Semtech , and Fluence Energy will report after Monday’s close. Wall Street will also get a slew of delayed economic data during the shortened holiday trading week. U.S. retail sales and September’s consumer price index are scheduled for release early Tuesday. Durable goods orders and the Conference Board consumer sentiment are released on Wednesday morning. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Mug shot of Eric Gillespie, Govini Founder and Chairman.
Courtesy: Pennsylvania Attorney General
Govini founder Eric Gillespie, who is charged with four felonies, including multiple counts of unlawful contact with a minor, was released on bail.
Gillespie, who lives in Pittsburgh, posted a $1 million bond after his court appearance Thursday. He is not allowed to travel, and his passport has been revoked.
He was initially denied bail following his arrest on Nov. 7, with the judge citing flight risk and public safety concerns.
David Shrager of Shrager Defense Attorneys, who represents Gillespie, insisted that his client did not break any laws.
“Mr. Gillespie has never contacted a minor, either online or in person, and the facts clearly prove that,” Shrager said after the hearing on Thursday.
“Completely false statements, including the use of artificial intelligence between adults made in the context of an online fantasy chat, are not illegal,” he added.
The Pennsylvania Attorney General’s Office said Gillespie sent lewd photos to an agent posing as a father offering his daughter to be abused, and made graphic comments about sexual acts with children.
Gillespie, 57, commented on the security of the encrypted platforms being used in the chats between him and the undercover agent, according to a criminal complaint obtained by CNBC.
Gillespie is the founder of defense contractor Govini.
He was listed on the company’s website on the leadership page as a board member as recently as Aug. 17, according to an archived version of the page available on the Wayback Machine.
Earlier this year, Govini landed a nearly $1 billion contract with the Department of Defense. The company’s suite of artificial intelligence-enabled applications is used by every department of the U.S. military and other federal agencies.
Following his arrest, Pentagon officials said they were looking into Gillespie and possible security issues.
CNBC has repeatedly asked the Department of Defense about updates on the status of the probe and potential security concerns with Govini or Gillespie.
“We don’t comment on ongoing investigations,” a Pentagon spokesperson said Thursday.
The chip giant’s talismanic leader trumpeted “off the charts” chip sales and dismissed talk of an “AI bubble,” and for a while, the tide lifted all boats.
“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble,” Huang said during an earnings call this week. “From our vantage point, we see something very different.”
The buzz from the blowout report quickly reversed, sending the AI winners deeply into the red — and few beneficiaries were left unscathed.
Every member of the Magnificent 7, except for Alphabet, was tracking for a losing week, with Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft staring down the biggest losses.
Amazon and Microsoft have led the group’s drop lower, falling about 6% this week. Meanwhile, Alphabet has gained nearly 8%. The search giant is also the only megacap of the group on pace for November gains thanks to a boost from the launch of Gemini 3.
Oracle, which is another major Nvidia customer, slumped about 10%. The chipmaker also supplies major model developers such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
CoreWeave, which buys and rents out Nvidia’s chips in data centers, initially soared on the chipmaker’s earnings report, but swiftly reversed course. The company’s stock is looking at an 8% blow this week.
AI fever was cooling in the runup to Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, and investors looked to the print to alleviate fears that the AI bubble was on shaky ground. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the stock has helped power the market to new all-time highs.
Major investors, including Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio told CNBC Thursday that the market is definitely in a bubble.
Much of the worries have stemmed from a boom in capital expenditures spending to support AI, with few signs of a payoff in view for many of the players.
Investor Michael Burry recently accused some of the biggest cloud and infrastructure providers of understating depreciation expenses and estimating a longer life cycle for their chips, calling it “one of the more common frauds of the modern era.”
Shares of the software analytics company, which supplies AI tools to the government and businesses, are down 11% this week. The stock has shed nearly a quarter of its value this month.