Migration across the Mediterranean is a brutal throw of the dice
There is a lottery within the boats that take the migrant route across the Mediterranean.
Some get over without incident; some get into distress and are rescued; some sink without witness.
There are a lot of bodies at the bottom of that sea.
And now the list of deaths grows, and probably by a ghastly number after a fishing vessel capsized with what a charity feared was up to 750 on board.
There are already many questions about this incident. Why did the boat start to turn so sharply, apparently causing its own downfall? Who was turning down the offers of assistance, and why? Was the rescue operation adequate – and if not, why not?
But other things are more clear-cut – an overloaded boat, transporting people from a Libyan port to Europe in dreadful conditions.
I know about that, because I’ve seen it up close.
A few weeks ago, cameraman Marc Hofer and I were on board the rescue ship Geo Barents, run by the charity Medecins Sans Frontieres.
Read more:
British man fears his relatives among the missing after migrant boat sinks off Greek coast
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Sky News has joined Italian coastguards and Medicin San Frontieres as 600 migrants were rescued from a sinking ship off the coast of Italy.
It patrols the Mediterranean, helping ships in distress and, on that sunny Saturday morning, a call for help is exactly what happened.
The Italian coastguard had been alerted to a ship, full of people, that needed assistance. When we got there, it was an extraordinary sight – a fishing boat that had been converted to carry as many people as possible.
It looked almost exactly the same as the one that has sunk off the southern Greek coast – a similar rich blue paintwork, apparently the same structure, with an upper deck and then a hugely crowded main deck.
On the boat we filmed, there was a lower area, called an underbelly, in which hundreds more people were crowded. On both boats, you can see the signs that it had previously been a fishing vessel, and you can also see the rust and wear of a long life.
My guess is that you could probably get about 40 people on to a boat like that before it started to feel too crowded.
At the end of a rescue mission we saw, which lasted several hours, more than 600 people had been transferred off the boat, and on to the Geo Barents.
When we spoke to some of those who were rescued, a story emerged that is now being echoed by survivors in Greece – of a boat that set off from the Libyan port of Tobruk, under the control of a captain.
Hunger, thirst and fear
On the Geo Barents, people told me that they had initially left the port with even more passengers on board but the vessel was so heinously overloaded that it could not be moved safely.
So, at gunpoint, around 150 people were then ordered off before the trip could start again.
They told a story of food and water running out; of people having to sit in the underbelly cramped together and of being ordered to stay in place so the boat would not sway from side to side. And of fearing that they would die on the journey.
We were also told that the captain left the ship one night, collected by a small boat that arrived alongside. After that, the passengers were left to their own devices, even though none of them knew how to control the boat.
Already, similar reports are emerging from the shipwreck – of a captain abandoning his ship, and those on board.
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On board the mission to rescue 600 people
Mediterranean boat disaster survivors say they were left to die – how the night’s tragedy unfolded
In both cases, the boats had actually been tracked by Frontex, the European Union’s border agency.
They scan the Mediterranean for vessels such as this and try to monitor their progress, handing on the information to the various nations that run search and rescue operations in the area.
But what is different is that the people we encountered were happy to be rescued. Many thought they were genuinely facing death and they willingly clambered off the boat and into the fast dinghies that took them to safety.
They wanted to reach Italy and, having been rescued by a boat in Italian waters, that was now going to happen.
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Dozens of people have died off the coast of Greece after a small boat carrying migrants capsized and sank.
The boat that sank seems also to have been determined to reach Italy, or perhaps Italian waters.
Maybe that’s why, as it meandered through the Greek zone, it repeatedly denied that it was in trouble – because it wanted to reach Italy’s jurisdiction before accepting any help.
But if the captain had left, then who was making that call? At times like this, there is a surfeit of questions and a paucity of answers.
Whatever – the sight of a dangerously overloaded vessel that won’t ask for help places the authorities in a difficult position.
Maritime law dictates that you must attend to a vessel that says it is in distress, or which is sinking or on fire.
But when a boat denies there’s a problem, then things become more complicated.
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‘A night-time rescue is the worst’
To an extent, all you can do is watch, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The problem for the rescue teams is that the worst happened at 2am.
The rescue that we filmed happened on a sunny afternoon on a relatively flat sea. But operations at night, especially with so many people in the water, are notoriously difficult.
A person does not have to drift far before they are effectively out of sight. And it is incredible how the break of a wave can hide what’s behind it.
“A night-time rescue is the worst,” one of the crew told me, shaking his head.
This is really a tale of two boats: that look the same, were just as packed as each other and set off from the same place.
On both of them, there were points where the people on board thought they were going to die.
On one of them, everyone survived. On the other, they didn’t. Migration across the Mediterranean really can be a brutal throw of the dice.
US president-elect Donald Trump has suggested Israel and Hamas could agree a Gaza ceasefire by the end of the week.
Talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives resumed in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday, after US President Joe Biden indicated a deal to stop the fighting was “on the brink” on Monday.
A draft agreement has been sent to both sides. It includes provisions for the release of hostages and a phased Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.
Qatar says Israel and Hamas are at their “closest point” yet to a ceasefire deal.
Two Hamas officials said the group has accepted the draft agreement, with Israel still considering the deal.
An Israeli official said a deal is close but “we are not there” yet.
More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its ground offensive in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Read more:
What’s in the proposed deal?
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on beachfront cafe in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters
Biden hails possibility of agreement
President Biden said it would include a hostage release deal and a “surge” of aid to Palestinians, in his final foreign policy speech as president.
“So many innocent people have been killed, so many communities have been destroyed. Palestinian people deserve peace,” he said.
“The deal would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.”
Qatari mediators have sent Israel and Hamas a draft proposal for an agreement to halt the fighting.
Analysis:
Deal might be close, but there are many unanswered questions
Pic: Reuters
Trump: ‘We’re very close’
President-elect Donald Trump has also discussed a possible peace deal during a phone interview with the Newsmax channel.
“We’re very close to getting it done and they have to get it done,” he said.
“If they don’t get it done, there’s going to be a lot of trouble out there, a lot of trouble, like they have never seen before.
“And they will get it done. And I understand there’s been a handshake and they’re getting it finished and maybe by the end of the week. But it has to take place, it has to take place.”
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Israeli official: Former Hamas leader held up deal
Speaking on Tuesday as negotiations resumed in Qatar, an anonymous Israeli official said that an agreement was “close, but we are not there”.
They accused Hamas of previously “dictating, not negotiating” but said this has changed in the last few weeks.
“Yahya Sinwar was the main obstacle for a deal,” they added.
Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the 7 October attacks, led Hamas following the assassination of his predecessor but was himself killed in October last year.
Under Sinwar, the Israeli official claimed, Hamas was “not in a rush” to bring a hostage deal but this has changed since his death and since the IDF “started to dismantle the Shia axis”.
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Biden: ‘Never, never, never, ever give up’
Iran ‘weaker than it’s been in decades’
Yesterday, President Biden also hailed Washington’s support for Israel during two Iranian attacks in 2024.
“All told, Iran is weaker than it’s been in decades,” the president said.
Mr Biden claimed America’s adversaries were weaker than when he took office four years ago and that the US was “winning the worldwide competition”.
“Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are
weaker,” he said.
“We have not gone to war to make these things happen.”
The US president is expected to give a farewell address on Wednesday.
A draft ceasefire deal on the table between Israel and Hamas would see 33 hostages set free and a phased withdrawal of IDF forces from parts of Gaza.
President Joe Biden said an agreement to stop the fighting was “on the brink” and high level negotiations between the two sides resumed in Qatar on Tuesday.
The deal would see a number of things happen in a first stage, with negotiations for the second stage beginning in the third week of the ceasefire.
It would also allow a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza, which has been devastated by more than a year of war.
Details of what the draft proposal entails have been emerging on Tuesday, reported by Israeli and Palestinian officials.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages hold photos of their loved ones during a protest on 8 January. Pic: AP
Hostages to be returned
In the first stage of the potential ceasefire, 33 hostages would be set free.
These include women (including female soldiers), children, men over the age of 50, wounded and sick.
Israel believes most of these hostages are alive but there has not been any official confirmation from Hamas.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel would free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
People serving long sentences for deadly attacks would be included in this but Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October attack would not be released.
An arrangement to prevent Palestinian “terrorists” from going back to the West Bank would be included in the deal, an anonymous Israeli official said.
Read more:
A timeline of events since the 7 October attacks
The hostages who still haven’t returned home
Smoke billows as buildings lie in ruin in Beit Hanoun in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
The agreement also includes a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, with IDF troops remaining in the border perimeter to defend Israeli border towns and villages.
Security arrangements would be implemented at the Philadelphi corridor – a narrow strip of land that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza – with Israel withdrawing from parts of it after the first few days of the deal.
The Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza would start to work gradually to allow the crossing of people who are sick and other humanitarian cases out of Gaza for treatment.
Unarmed North Gaza residents would be allowed to return to their homes, with a mechanism introduced to ensure no weapons are moved there.
“We will not leave the Gaza Strip until all our hostages are back home,” the Israeli official said.
What will happen to Gaza in the future?
There is less detail about the future of Gaza – from how it will be governed, to any guarantees that this agreement will bring a permanent end to the war.
“The only thing that can answer for now is that we are ready for a ceasefire,” the Israeli official said.
“This is a long ceasefire and the deal that is being discussed right now is for a long one. There is a big price for releasing the hostages and we are ready to pay this price.”
The international community has said Gaza must be run by Palestinians, but there has not been a consensus about how this should be done – and the draft ceasefire agreement does not seem to address this either.
In the past, Israel has said it will not end the war leaving Hamas in power. It also previously rejected the possibility of the Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited governing powers in the West Bank, from taking over the administration of Gaza.
Since the beginning of its military campaign in Gaza, Israel has also said it would retain security control over the territory after the fighting ends.
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