There is a lottery within the boats that take the migrant route across the Mediterranean.
Some get over without incident; some get into distress and are rescued; some sink without witness.
There are a lot of bodies at the bottom of that sea.
And now the list of deaths grows, and probably by a ghastly number after a fishing vessel capsized with what a charity feared was up to 750 on board.
There are already many questions about this incident. Why did the boat start to turn so sharply, apparently causing its own downfall? Who was turning down the offers of assistance, and why? Was the rescue operation adequate – and if not, why not?
But other things are more clear-cut – an overloaded boat, transporting people from a Libyan port to Europe in dreadful conditions.
I know about that, because I’ve seen it up close.
A few weeks ago, cameraman Marc Hofer and I were on board the rescue ship Geo Barents, run by the charity Medecins Sans Frontieres.
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Sky News has joined Italian coastguards and Medicin San Frontieres as 600 migrants were rescued from a sinking ship off the coast of Italy.
It patrols the Mediterranean, helping ships in distress and, on that sunny Saturday morning, a call for help is exactly what happened.
The Italian coastguard had been alerted to a ship, full of people, that needed assistance. When we got there, it was an extraordinary sight – a fishing boat that had been converted to carry as many people as possible.
It looked almost exactly the same as the one that has sunk off the southern Greek coast – a similar rich blue paintwork, apparently the same structure, with an upper deck and then a hugely crowded main deck.
On the boat we filmed, there was a lower area, called an underbelly, in which hundreds more people were crowded. On both boats, you can see the signs that it had previously been a fishing vessel, and you can also see the rust and wear of a long life.
My guess is that you could probably get about 40 people on to a boat like that before it started to feel too crowded.
At the end of a rescue mission we saw, which lasted several hours, more than 600 people had been transferred off the boat, and on to the Geo Barents.
When we spoke to some of those who were rescued, a story emerged that is now being echoed by survivors in Greece – of a boat that set off from the Libyan port of Tobruk, under the control of a captain.
Hunger, thirst and fear
On the Geo Barents, people told me that they had initially left the port with even more passengers on board but the vessel was so heinously overloaded that it could not be moved safely.
So, at gunpoint, around 150 people were then ordered off before the trip could start again.
They told a story of food and water running out; of people having to sit in the underbelly cramped together and of being ordered to stay in place so the boat would not sway from side to side. And of fearing that they would die on the journey.
We were also told that the captain left the ship one night, collected by a small boat that arrived alongside. After that, the passengers were left to their own devices, even though none of them knew how to control the boat.
Already, similar reports are emerging from the shipwreck – of a captain abandoning his ship, and those on board.
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On board the mission to rescue 600 people
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In both cases, the boats had actually been tracked by Frontex, the European Union’s border agency.
They scan the Mediterranean for vessels such as this and try to monitor their progress, handing on the information to the various nations that run search and rescue operations in the area.
But what is different is that the people we encountered were happy to be rescued. Many thought they were genuinely facing death and they willingly clambered off the boat and into the fast dinghies that took them to safety.
They wanted to reach Italy and, having been rescued by a boat in Italian waters, that was now going to happen.
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Dozens of people have died off the coast of Greece after a small boat carrying migrants capsized and sank.
The boat that sank seems also to have been determined to reach Italy, or perhaps Italian waters.
Maybe that’s why, as it meandered through the Greek zone, it repeatedly denied that it was in trouble – because it wanted to reach Italy’s jurisdiction before accepting any help.
But if the captain had left, then who was making that call? At times like this, there is a surfeit of questions and a paucity of answers.
Whatever – the sight of a dangerously overloaded vessel that won’t ask for help places the authorities in a difficult position.
Maritime law dictates that you must attend to a vessel that says it is in distress, or which is sinking or on fire.
But when a boat denies there’s a problem, then things become more complicated.
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‘A night-time rescue is the worst’
To an extent, all you can do is watch, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The problem for the rescue teams is that the worst happened at 2am.
The rescue that we filmed happened on a sunny afternoon on a relatively flat sea. But operations at night, especially with so many people in the water, are notoriously difficult.
A person does not have to drift far before they are effectively out of sight. And it is incredible how the break of a wave can hide what’s behind it.
“A night-time rescue is the worst,” one of the crew told me, shaking his head.
This is really a tale of two boats: that look the same, were just as packed as each other and set off from the same place.
On both of them, there were points where the people on board thought they were going to die.
On one of them, everyone survived. On the other, they didn’t. Migration across the Mediterranean really can be a brutal throw of the dice.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says two Chinese citizens have been captured while fighting in eastern Ukraine.
He said his forces had fought six Chinese soldiers and two of them had been taken prisoner. He added he had ordered officials to obtain an explanation from Beijing.
“We have information that there are many more Chinese citizens in the occupier’s units than just two. We are now finding out all the facts,” he added.
As it happened: Zelenskyy demands reaction from US
China is an ally of Russia and has been accused of helping its war in Ukraine, though Beijing has repeatedly denied allegations that it has supplied Kremlin forces with weapons.
“Russia’s involvement of China in this war in Europe, directly or indirectly, is a clear signal that Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” Mr Zelenskyy said. “He is looking for ways to continue the war.”
Mr Zelenskyy described China as having joined Russia’s war against Ukraine and said he expected the US to react.
There was no immediate comment from China.
How many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia?
Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?
Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it? That would make the situation far more serious.
The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.
Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.
“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.
This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.
Fighters of various nationalities have joined Russia’s army during the war, often in return for promises of large sums of money. This does not represent official interventions by their home countries.
North Korea has also sent thousands of its troops to support Russia.
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‘This could be very, very embarrassing for China’
After Mr Zelenskyy’s announcement, the Ukrainian foreign minister said he had summoned China’s diplomat for an explanation, saying on social media the presence of Chinese citizens in Russia puts Beijing’s stance for peace into question.
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Ukraine in Belgorod, almost out of Kursk
Last night, Mr Zelenskyy confirmed for the first time that Ukrainian forces are active in Russia’s Belgorod region.
He described the actions as “just”, adding: “war must return to where it came from”.
Meanwhile, regional governor Alexander Khinshtein said Russian forces are on the verge of reclaiming Kursk, months after Ukraine’s surprise incursion.
He claimed Russian forces had seized the settlement of Guyevo. Russian state news agency TASS said only two more settlements are left to recapture – Gornal and Oleshnya – to retake the entire region.
World
What we learn from video of captured Chinese national in Ukraine – and the serious questions it raises
In a carefully written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the Russian army of deploying Chinese citizens on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine.
What about the proof? Well, the Ukrainian president says his security services captured two people from China in the Donetsk region – along with identity documents, personal data and their bank cards.
Follow latest: Zelenskyy demands reaction from US
A video of a man in military fatigues who had been captured by Ukraine was pinned to the bottom of the statement.
We get snippets of a conversation where the alleged combatant seems to be talking about the events that led to his capture.
“When we arrived at the place… and then my commander.” The man gestures at the floor and ceiling, making shooting noises. “I was also injured.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy uploaded a video appearing to show a Chinese citizen in military uniform in Ukrainian custody
These details will make it difficult for the Chinese government to deny the incident out of hand, although they are highly unlikely to supply additional information.
Important details like, who are they? What function(s) do they fulfil in Ukraine’s occupied territories?
Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?
Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it?
That would make the situation far more serious.
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The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his post, Mr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.
Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.
“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.
This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.
On one hand, Chinese President Xi Jinping describes China as a neutral party to the conflict, while simultaneously offering Mr Putin long-term political and economic support.
In fact, he described their partnership as a “no limits” one in a phone call with Mr Putin on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Mr Zelenskyy then, is making a point with this post – but he does not want to make the situation any worse.
The severity cannot be overstated, if an additional 50% tariffs are levied on all Chinese goods it will decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.
Remember, 50% would sit on top of what is already on the table: 34% announced last week, 20% announced at the start of US President Donald Trump’s term, and some additional tariffs left over from his first term in office.
In total, it means all Chinese goods would face tariffs of over 100%, some as high as 120%.
It’s a price that makes any trade almost impossible.
China is really the only nation in the world at the moment that is choosing to take a stand.
While others are publicly making concessions and sending delegations to negotiate, China has clearly calculated that not being seen to be bullied is worth the cost that retaliation will bring.
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Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump
The real question, though, is if the US does indeed impose this extra 50% tomorrow, what could or would China do next?
It has said it will “fight to the end”, but what does that mean?
In reality, there are few good options.
There are some obvious measures that China will almost certainly enact.
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Further export controls on rare earth minerals (crucial for the development of high-tech products) are one example. China controls a huge proportion of the world’s supply, but the US would likely find workarounds in time.
Hiking tariffs on high-impact US products such as agricultural goods is another option, but there is only so far this could go.
The potentially more impactful options have significant drawbacks for Beijing.
It could, for instance, target high-profile American companies such as Apple and Tesla, but this isn’t ideal at a time when China is trying to attract more foreign investment, and some devaluation of the currency is possible, but it would also come with adverse effects.
Other options are more political and come with the risk of escalation beyond the economic arena.
In an opinion piece this morning, the editor of Xinhua, China’s state news agency, speculated that China could cease all cooperation with the US on the war against fentanyl.
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This has been a major political issue for Mr Trump, and it’s hard to see it would not constitute some sort of red line for him.
Other options touted include banning the import of American films, or perhaps calling for the Chinese public to boycott all American products.
Anything like this comes with a sense that the world’s two most powerful superpowers might be teetering on the edge of not just a total economic decoupling, but cultural separation too.
There is understandably serious nervousness about how that could spiral and the precedent it sets.
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