Records: UGA players tally more traffic incidents
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Paula Lavigne, ESPN Staff Writer
Georgia football players and their cars have been involved in at least 10 reports of traffic-related moving violations in Athens-Clarke County since Jan. 15, when a player and team staff member were killed in a reckless driving incident allegedly tied to racing, according to records obtained by ESPN.
Players have also been involved in at least 60 additional moving violations — including speeding, distracted and reckless driving, and disobeying traffic signs — since the beginning of the 2021 academic year, according to ESPN’s analysis of 911 calls, police reports and court records from Athens-Clarke County. About 30 of those incidents have occurred since last summer, when coach Kirby Smart said police met with the team about the dangers of street racing.
ESPN’s findings echo those in a report published Friday by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, which found that police have charged Georgia players with traffic offenses nearly 300 times since Smart became head coach in 2015. The data in AJC’s report included minor offenses, such as failing to wear a seat belt, as well as traffic violations from other counties and states, while ESPN’s analysis focused on Athens-Clarke County and didn’t account for nonmoving violations, such as seat belt and parking tickets. But the analyses shows a pattern of dangerous driving that has continued even after the death of a teammate and staff member and has frustrated police, residents, Georgia coaches and administrators.
“The Athletic Association recognizes the severity of reckless driving and is actively addressing recent incidents with educational measures, mentorship, and when necessary, punitive action. Baseless reports that suggest we tolerate this behavior are categorically false,” according to a statement to ESPN from the UGA Athletic Association. “Our coaches and administrators are deeply disappointed by the persistence of reckless driving and other misbehavior.”
Lt. Shaun Barnett, spokesperson for the Athens-Clarke County Police Department, said officers’ enforcement is “equal across the board,” when asked about their interactions with Georgia football players. He said records released in response to requests from various media outlets would document that.
But he would not answer questions about whether the department has tried to address the issue of Georgia football players and their driving habits with the university, nor would he say whether anyone from the department has offered to speak with athletes. And he said no one from the department would be made available to answer questions regarding the specific incidents.
In its statement to ESPN, the UGA Athletic Association said it intended to bring back Athens-Clarke County police to speak to the team.
In the Jan. 15 crash, police alleged former Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter was racing team staff member Chandler LeCroy when LeCroy’s SUV, traveling more than 100 mph, left the road and slammed into power poles and trees. LeCroy, whose blood alcohol concentration was more than twice the legal limit in Georgia, and offensive lineman Devin Willock, who was a passenger in her car, were killed in the wreck. Carter pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing. He was sentenced in March to a year of probation, a $1,000 fine and 80 hours of community service. He was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles in April.
Carter previously had been cited twice for moving violations in September 2022, once for speeding and once for failure to obey a traffic control device, according to the records obtained by ESPN. Both resulted in a fine.
Drew Rosenhaus, Carter’s agent, did not respond to a message seeking comment. In a statement to ESPN in March, Carter’s attorney, Kim Stephens, said Carter did not cause the car wreck that killed Willock and LeCroy. “If the investigation had determined otherwise, Mr. Carter would have been charged with the far more serious offenses of vehicular homicide and serious injury by vehicle under Georgia law, both felony offenses, and would have faced a lengthy prison sentence,” Stephens said in the statement.
Before the January crash, the athletic association had implemented programming to “promote a culture of responsibility” that included vehicle and traffic safety, according to its statement to ESPN. Since the crash, “there have been multiple instances in which coaches and administrators have addressed the team — along with outside experts and speakers — to counsel players following this tragedy, as well as to explain the enormous risks and consequences of reckless behavior,” according to the UGA Athletic Association’s statement to ESPN. That has included a presentation by the Georgia State Patrol, according to the statement.
“Our players have been receptive — they listen, ask the right questions, and demonstrate a clear understanding of the issue,” the association said in the statement. “But, as is often the case with educating younger individuals, we recognize these efforts will need to be consistent and continuous in order to fully reinforce the message and eliminate this behavior completely. Despite our best efforts, we cannot completely prevent speeding and reckless driving.”
The records show that a repeat traffic offender has been running back Kendall Milton, who has been cited for four moving violations in Athens-Clarke County since July 2021 — three times for speeding and once for “failure to maintain lane/improper driving on road.” They all resulted in fines, according to court records.
Then in February — one month after the deadly crash — multiple calls came into Athens-Clarke County police complaining of cars street racing, revving engines, burning rubber and doing doughnuts on Barnett Shoals Road, the same road where Carter and LeCroy were reported to be racing. One of the cars the officer found at the scene was a 2019 Lamborghini Urus luxury SUV, valued at more than $200,000 and registered to Milton, according to a 911 dispatch report obtained by ESPN. There’s no record of any citations being issued, and it’s unclear whether Milton was driving the car at the time of the report.
Milton did not respond to a message sent on social media, and messages left with one of his parents were not returned.
On March 31, 911 calls came in again reporting cars racing, driving recklessly and swerving between lanes, again on Barnett Shoals Road, which is a common location for traffic stops involving Georgia players. One of the cars was a gray Dodge Charger with a license plate registered to Georgia defensive back Tykee Smith, according to dispatch records. When an officer arrived on scene, the officer did not notice any erratic driving; there’s no record of a citation being issued.
Smith did not respond to an effort to reach him via a social media account.
Other incidents since the January crash include: the arrest of receiver Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for reckless driving and speeding — his arraignment is scheduled for July 5; a warning to offensive lineman Weston Wallace for riding on roadways and bicycle paths; a ticket to wide receiver De’Nylon Morrissette, whose case is pending, for traveling 81 mph in a 45 mph zone; an accident involving punter Brett Thorson, who was cited for following too closely and whose case is still open; and a citation, resulting in a fine, to Christen Miller for failing to obey a red light.
Morrissette was then arrested on multiple driving-related charges — including driving under the influence of drugs — on May 8 in Oconee County. The incident was not included in ESPN’s analysis because it occurred outside Athens-Clarke County.
When asked about punishments related to driving violations, the UGA Athletic Association said in its statement that it could reduce academic-achievement monetary awards for “serious misconduct.” The disciplinary process might also include a one-on-one meeting with Georgia athletic director Josh Brooks.
“Consistent with other Power Five programs, we historically do not suspend players for minor traffic infractions or speeding tickets, but we do pursue appropriate action,” the association said in the statement.
On April 7, Athens resident Hope Cymerman and her husband had enough. For several days, they had watched a gray Dodge Charger peel out on their block, rev its engine and screech its tires multiple times a day. The final straw was when the driver gunned it so hard that he spun into the oncoming traffic lane. They called the police.
When an officer arrived, Cymerman shared the license plate information with him and told him what had been happening, according to police body-cam footage obtained and reviewed by ESPN. She told him about one particularly aggressive streak down the block leaving a trail of burnt rubber. “There was literally smoke rising up to the roof of this house,” she said. Her husband added, “He’s clearly out of control.”
The officer ran the plate, which turned up registered to Mykel Williams, a Georgia defensive lineman. When the officer arrived at Williams’ apartment shortly after responding to Cymerman’s house, the football player came out wheeling a scooter that supported his left leg. The athletic department reported that Williams had foot surgery in the spring.
The officer told Williams that someone had reported his vehicle driving recklessly down a residential street on multiple occasions. “If it is you, I’m just asking you to stop doing that,” the officer told Williams, according to the body-cam footage. “If it’s not you, if it’s someone else driving your car, then you need to have them stop doing that, please, because we’re going to put officers in that area.” Williams, who said nothing about the allegations, nodded in acknowledgement of the officer’s warning before going back into his apartment, the video shows. No citation was issued.
Williams did not respond to a text from ESPN requesting comment.
Cymerman said the driving ceased after they called police. She and her husband said in an interview with ESPN that they had no idea who was driving the car; they had tried to see the driver but said the window tinting was impenetrable.
But when she learned to whom the car was registered, “I immediately put the dots together between what happened with Jalen Carter and the potential for a pattern of behavior with a group of people based on what we saw this guy doing once we found out he was a football player,” she said.
Records from multiple traffic stops with football players show that officers have repeatedly asked them to slow down, noting the pattern in their behavior, according to records obtained by ESPN and the report by the Journal-Constitution.
When the driving arrests continued after the January fatalities, Smart said in March that the athletic department has tried to address the issue, which he said is “not to be taken lightly.”
“I think our guys understand that, and we continue to educate them and we’ll continue to do all we can as a university to make sure they behave and do that in a proper way,” Smart said at the time.
Last month, David Willock — on behalf of his son’s estate — filed a lawsuit against the University of Georgia Athletic Association, claiming the school’s athletic department should be held liable for the fatal car crash that killed Devin Willock and LeCroy.
In an email Tuesday, Willock’s attorney, Terry Jackson, wrote, “It is devastating to Mr. Willock that this conduct continues, and disappointing that the players and the Athletic Association are not taking his son’s tragic death serious enough to modify their driving habits, and the Association’s policies.”
It continued, “Until players perceive and it is demonstrated by the Athletic Association that there will be real consequences to driving offenses, including suspensions and dismissals for repeat offenders, this conduct will continue… Players and organizations respond to structure, organization, and consequences for missing their assignments. The same discipline should be applied to this problem, reckless driving, it is really that simple.”
Smart said he brought in officers from the university police and Athens-Clarke County Police last summer to educate the team about the dangers of street racing. Smart said Bryant Gantt, the program’s director of player support operations, suggested it after watching news clips of street racing in Atlanta.
Gantt is known as the program’s “fixer” because of his practice of helping athletes with criminal matters and acting as a liaison with law enforcement. His name appears on several police reports obtained by ESPN, including two for Carter, often with a notation that he has paid a fine or has been asked to be notified of law enforcement’s interaction with players. Emails obtained by ESPN show police department employees providing information to Gantt about traffic-related incidents.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Gantt had contacted court officials on 82 separate legal matters involving players between 2016 and 2023.
Gantt did not respond to messages seeking comment.
“Ongoing attempts to mischaracterize Bryant Gantt’s role with the football program are misplaced,” the UGA Athletic Association said in its statement. “As Director of Player Support and Operations, Mr. Gantt serves as an invaluable resource for our student-athletes, particularly as they navigate their lives off the field. With many student-athletes living far from home and without parental support in close proximity, Mr. Gantt provides support and reinforces our standards and expectations. Mr. Gantt helps student-athletes address issues that may be new to them, ensuring that they face and complete their responsibilities.”
In February, Georgia outside linebacker Aliou Bah was pulled over by police for going 65 mph in a 45 mph zone in his 2020 Dodge Charger. Body-cam video of the traffic stop, obtained by ESPN, shows that one officer sat in the patrol car while another walked to Bah’s window to talk to him. When that officer returned to the patrol car, she told her partner that Bah said, “Don’t tell Gantt,” according to the video. She said she didn’t know who Gantt was and told Bah, “This traffic stop’s between me and you.” The incident resulted in a fine.
Barnett, the spokesperson for the Athens-Clarke County Police Department, hung up when asked about Gantt and his relationship with the department.
“I do not have anything else to contribute to this story. Thank you for your time,” he said, then ended the call.
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Greg Wyshynski
The Nashville Predators disagreed that a “weird” Minnesota Wild overtime goal scored with the net displaced Tuesday night should have counted.
Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov sent a pass across the crease to teammate Marcus Johansson just as Predators goalie Justus Annunen pushed the net off its moorings. Johansson’s shot hit the side of the net as the cage continued to slide out of place. He collected the puck and then backhanded it over the goal line and off the end boards with the net dislodged.
The referee signaled a goal at 3:38 of overtime, and it was upheld after an NHL video review. Minnesota won, 3-2, overcoming an emotional letdown when Nashville’s Steven Stamkos tied the score with just 0.3 seconds left in regulation.
“The explanation was that, in [the referee’s] opinion, it was a goal. I disagree with his opinion, but that’s the way it is,” Nashville coach Andrew Brunette said.
Stamkos wasn’t pleased with the goal call after the game.
“Obviously, a weird play. I can see the confusion, but the confusing part for us was why it was so emphatically called [a goal]. I get it. Listen, the net came off. If the puck goes in right away, no problem if the net is off. But he missed the net, and the puck actually bounced back to him because the net was sideways,” he said.
The NHL’s Situation Room upheld the goal because it felt Annunen caused the net to be displaced prior to an “imminent scoring opportunity” by Johansson and cited Rule 63.7 as justification. The rule reads:
“In the event that the goal post is displaced, either deliberately or accidentally, by a defending player, prior to the puck crossing the goal line between the normal position of the goalposts, the Referee may award a goal. In order to award a goal in this situation, the goal post must have been displaced by the actions of a defending player, the attacking player must have an imminent scoring opportunity prior to the goal post being displaced, and it must be determined that the puck would have entered the net between the normal position of the goal posts.”
Stamkos didn’t believe that Johansson’s goal-scoring shot was only made possible by the net having come off its moorings.
“I understand the net came off. I don’t think there was any intent from our goaltender to knock it off — it came off twice today. From our vantage point, we thought the puck came back to him on the second attempt because the net was off. If not, the puck goes behind the net, and we live to fight another day. So, that’s where we didn’t agree with the call,” he said.
Brunette doesn’t believe his goalie intentionally pushed the net off its moorings.
“I don’t think just by the physics of pushing that’s what he was trying to do. I thought they missed the net. If the net didn’t dislodge, you would have ended up hitting the net,” he said.
“Unfortunately, they didn’t see it the same way. And you move on.”
This was the second win in a row for the Wild, moving them to 5-6-3 on the season. Nashville dropped to 5-6-4, losing its second straight overtime game.
“We deserved a lot better, for sure. One of our best games of the season, for sure,” Stamkos said.
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David Hale
The College Football Playoff committee has released its first top 25 ranking of the season, which is the sport’s version of Walmart opening its doors at midnight on Black Friday. Things are about to get ugly, and someone’s going to end up bloodied while fighting Oklahoma for a spot in the top 12. In other words, it’s the best time of year.
This year, the committee has said it is considering a new “record strength” metric, designed to provide some math-based guidance in the process and to soon replace “game control” as the country’s most hated made-up statistic.
Ten weeks into a season filled with a lot of chaos and few seemingly great teams, however, the committee needs all the help it can get. For example, just eight teams in the country have already beaten more than one of the committee’s current top 25 — and one of those eight teams is NC State. Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Pitt, Washington, Missouri and Tennessee — all ranked this week — are a combined 0-12 against other teams in the committee’s top 25. The ACC doesn’t have a team ranked higher than 14th, and the Group of 5 doesn’t have a team ranked at all, making these rankings less about the coveted top 12 than a need to be in the top 10.
In other words, there’s a lot still in flux as we dive deeper into the final month of the season. But that means our anger toward the committee is just simmering for now, waiting for the rage to boil over in the weeks to come.
Still, a few schools have a pretty good case for outrage already.
In all the hubbub over last year’s final playoff rankings that left a trio of SEC teams out, what went overlooked was that BYU might have had more to be angry about than Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina. Two of those teams, at least, had taken a bad loss. Each of those teams had three losses. BYU, on the other hand, checked in on the committee’s final ranking behind each of them despite a 10-2 record and two close losses to solid teams.
So, certainly the committee would feel some compassion for the Cougars this year and consider the Cougars with a bit more optimism, right?
Ah, no.
Let’s take a look at some blind résumés.
Team A: No. 3 strength of record, No. 33 strength of schedule, 4-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 11 in the committee’s poll.
Team B: No. 4 strength of record, No. 45 strength of schedule, 3-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 13 in the committee’s poll.
Sure, Team A has a slight edge, but the résumés look pretty similar.
Well, Team A is the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. Surely, if another team’s résumé looks more or less the same, that team would be staring down a bye in the first round of the playoff, right?
Nope. Team B is BYU, and the Cougars sit behind three SEC teams with a loss, all three of which are ranked lower in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Given that BYU has a massive showdown with Texas Tech upcoming, perhaps the committee just punted on any tough decisions on the Cougars for this week. After all, given how much love the committee has shown the Big Ten in these rankings, punting would be a fitting play.
We get it. As a conference, the ACC might, in fact, just be an episode of “Punk’d” that Ashton Kutcher started in 2008, then got distracted and forgot to let everyone know it was a prank. The conference’s train wreck in Week 10 certainly showed up in these rankings — more on that in a moment — but it’s almost as if the committee just threw Louisville into the mix, deciding the Cardinals were guilty by association.
Let’s take another look at some blind résumés, shall we?
Team A: No. 10 strength of record, No. 58 strength of schedule, one win vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 13 team, lone loss vs. an unranked team.
Team B: No. 13 strength of record, No. 56 strength of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 18 team, lone loss to committee’s No. 14 team.
This is basically a coin flip, though given the additional wins vs. high-level opponents and a better loss, it would be hard to argue against Team B, right? Add to that, Team B’s lone loss came in double overtime in a game when it outgained its opponent by 150 yards. Surely, you would be on Team B’s side now, right?
Well, not surprisingly, Team B is Louisville. Team A is Texas Tech, ranked seven spots higher at No. 8.
There seems to be a desire to write Miami off because of two losses in the past three games and given the strife the team seems to be enduring on offense, perhaps that’s wise.
But two things are supposed to be true of the committee’s evaluation process. One, the committee is not supposed to care when wins and losses happen. Losing in September isn’t better than losing in November. A loss is a loss. Second, the committee is not supposed to make assumptions about the future. Sure, Miami’s offense is a mess at the moment, but assuming that will result in future losses isn’t part of the deal.
And yet, putting Miami at No. 18 — eight full spots behind another two-loss team the Canes beat head-to-head — can only be explained by the vibes. Notre Dame’s season is rolling right along now. Miami has hit some stumbling blocks. Never mind the Canes are two late Carson Beck interceptions away from still being undefeated. Never mind that Miami has four wins vs. FPI top-35 teams, twice as many as any other two-loss team except Oklahoma. Never mind that Miami has that head-to-head against the No. 10 team in the committee’s rankings or that it walloped a Florida team that took No. 5 Georgia to the wire and actually beat No. 11 Texas. Never mind that Miami beat a then-ranked USF by 37.
Instead, the committee has assigned Miami to the scrap heap now — which is a shame because Miami would probably have done this to itself anyway, and it’s so much funnier when it happens in the last game of the season.
4. The Group of 5
A year ago, Boise State found its way into a first-round bye ahead of the champion of a Power 4 league, which was probably pretty embarrassing for that Power 4 league except that the ACC embarrasses itself often enough to be pretty well immune to shame.
The rules have changed this year. The top four conference champs aren’t guaranteed a first-round bye now. But that doesn’t seem to have stopped the committee from stacking the deck anyway, just to be safe.
Not one team outside the Power 4 found its way into these initial rankings, though the committee notes that Memphis currently is in the lead for the long Group of 5 playoff bid.
So, surely the Group of 5 should be pretty upset, right?
Yes, but not about being snubbed from the top-25 party. None of the leaders in the Group of 5 have a great case — certainly none like Boise State had a year ago. But Memphis? Really? The same team that lost by a touchdown to a UAB team had just fired its coach?
In the committee’s new guidance to consider record strength, there is an assumption that really bad losses are weighted heavily, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this time around.
North Texas has one loss to SP+ No. 27.
James Madison has one loss to SP+ No. 16 (and the No. 15 team in the committee’s rankings).
San Diego State has one loss to SP+ No. 73 has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
Memphis has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the Tigers weren’t punished at all for a terrible loss.
5. The SEC
The latter half of the committee’s top 25 is usually the equivalent of the phone lines for a Finebaum episode — just a place where a lot of mediocre SEC folks hang out, patiently waiting for their turn. But this time, the committee has stuffed the bottom of the rankings with Big Ten teams — No. 19 USC, No. 20 Iowa, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington — and that might actually matter in the long run.
One of the committee’s favored metrics is wins over ranked opponents. We’re dubious about how many Big Ten teams deserve a little number next to their name. The league still has four teams that have yet to win a conference game, and the bottom third is a complete dumpster fire. It’s easy to rack up some wins when half your conference schedule has already been embarrassed by UCLA’s interim coaching staff.
But the SEC — that’s where the real depth is. Nearly half the SEC’s conference games this season have been one-possession affairs. Mississippi State, a team that had gone nearly two years without an SEC win, already knocked off last year’s Big 12 champ. LSU, a team that fired its coach, has a win over last year’s ACC champ. Florida beat Texas. Putting a bunch of undeserving teams at the bottom of the rankings only serves to prop up the résumés of teams such as Oregon, which hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence. And frankly, the committee is supposed to do that for the SEC, not the Big Ten.
Also angry: Virginia Cavaliers (8-1, No. 14, behind four two-loss teams), USF Bulls (6-2, unranked), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, unranked), Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, unranked), Brian Kelly (just angry for other reasons).
The ACC is already playing from behind, and it’s only the first ranking of the season. With no teams ranked in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s initial top 12 on Tuesday night, the lone ACC team in the bracket if it were released today would be No. 14 Virginia. The Cavaliers would earn a spot as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.
As for No. 17 Georgia Tech and No. 18 Miami? Not even a head-to-head win against the No. 10-ranked Fighting Irish was enough to keep the Canes within playoff range after their loss at SMU.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s first ranking on Tuesday night.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are currently in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing early. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it’s favored in each of its remaining games by at least 72% and has the seventh-best chance in the country (55.4%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma could also help them in the committee meeting room. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though, and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12, then the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at No. 25 Tennessee and have a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for it. That could change on Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State but also recognize the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (18%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game it’s not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If the Trojans can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, though, the committee would definitely consider them for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. All three of these teams were ranked by the committee on Tuesday night, but No. 20 Iowa has the shortest climb into the conversation and gets a chance for a marquee win when it hosts No. 9 Oregon on Saturday. Michigan still has a chance to run the table and impress the committee with a win against its No. 1 team, Ohio State, but the head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking. If USC loses again, though, and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, then they’re going to need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday but lose to it in the Big 12 championship game, they would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. They would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as they end the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The No. 13 Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.2%) but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but it might have a hard time earning an at-large bid without being able to beat at least one of the best teams in its league. If there is some movement above the Utes, though, they could quickly earn a promotion given their place on the bubble after the first ranking.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. They’re included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. The unranked Bearcats have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss compared with the Yellow Jackets’ double-digit defeat. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season and their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4 but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above it lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly on Tuesday, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and these teams are all still technically in contention to play for the ACC title. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (66.6%), followed by Georgia Tech (41.3%) and Louisville (33.8%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami has only a 2.7% chance to reach the championship game — also behind Duke and SMU.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The selection committee’s decision to render the head-to-head loss to Miami moot was critical for both teams. The group rewarded Notre Dame for its eye test and recent surge during a six-game winning streak. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (64.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers are playing well, have won five straight and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. Notre Dame’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and the Irish are 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Memphis wasn’t ranked in the committee’s top 25, but the group continues to rank teams until a Group of 5 team is included and then publicizes which one it is without revealing the full ranking and which teams might have been ahead. The Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on the Tigers’ résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: USF, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider USF’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the first committee ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oregon/No. 8 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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