Analysts are trying to estimate the value of Tesla’s Supercharger network as the NACS connector becomes the North American standard and could widen Tesla’s charging lead.
One of the top Tesla analysts believes it could be worth more than $100 billion.
The Supercharger network is the only global EV fast-charging network, and in North America, it is by far the most extensive and reliable.
Initially, Tesla meant it as a service to its owners and didn’t want to make it a profit center, but the automaker assumed that a more robust EV charging industry would emerge.
In North America, it hasn’t really been the case.
That’s why automakers like GM and Ford are now announcing that they are adopting Tesla’s NACS connector in order to give their EV buyers access to the Tesla Supercharger network.
It could lead to Tesla owning a large part of the EV charging business, especially in North America.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, one of the top Tesla analysts, tried to estimate what kind of value this charging business could add to Tesla.
Jonas and his team believe that long term, Tesla could produce and store its own solar electricity to power its Superchargers. Based on that assumption, they built a few scenarios using various estimated percentages of US miles driven with electric vehicles in 2030, Supercharger market shares powering those miles driven, an average efficiency of 4 miles per kWh, and a revenue of $0.32 per kWh.
They ran these scenarios through valuation at 20X FY30 net operating profit after tax discounted at a 9.0% weighted average cost of capital.
Here are the different valuations for Tesla’s Supercharger network based on those numbers (via Seeking Alpha):
The Morgan Stanley “reasonable case” assumes 10% EV miles penetration, 50% Tesla share of Supercharging and 30% net operating profit after tax margin to lead to a potential net present value of $3 per share for the business.
The Morgan Stanley “plausible case” assumes 20% EV miles penetration, 70% Tesla share of Supercharging, and 50% NOPAT margin to lead to a potential net present value of $14 per share.
The Morgan Stanley “dominant case” assumes 30% EV miles penetration, 80% Tesla share of Supercharging, and 70% NOPAT margin to lead to a potential net present value of $33 per share.
The Morgan Stanley “monopoly case” assumes 50% EV miles penetration, 100% Tesla share of Supercharging, and 80% NOPAT margin to lead to a potential net present value of $78 per share.
With over 3 billion shares outstanding, it would value the Supercharger network at over $100 million at a price per share of $33.
Electrek’s Take
There is some value to this analysis, but I also think that people have to be careful when thinking about Supercharger market shares.
I think that it’s not impossible for Tesla Supercharger to end up with a very large, likely majority, market share in the DC fast-charging industry.
However, it’s important to note that the DC fast-charging industry would be a minority of the overall EV charging as level 2 charging, especially at home and work, should continue to account for the majority of EV charging.
That said, I can see Tesla soon delivering several hundred gigawatt-hours of charging through Superchargers every month, and that’s undoubtedly a multibillion-dollar business.
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Following approval from Transport Canada, EV startup Workhorse will be bringing the W56 and W750 model electric delivery vans to commercial truck dealers in Canada as early as this spring.
“This is a major step forward for Workhorse,” says Josh Anderson, Workhorse’s chief technology officer in a press statement. “Pre-clearance from Transport Canada opens up a large new market for our products throughout Canada, including with fleets that operate across borders in North America.”
Despite that uncertainty, Workhorse execs remain upbeat. “We’re excited that our electric step vans can now reach Canadian roads and highways, providing reliable, zero-emission solutions that customers can depend on,” added Anderson.
Canadian pricing has yet to be announced.
Electrek’s Take
FedEx electric delivery vehicle; via Workhorse.
There’s no other way to say it: the Trump/Musk co-presidency is disrupting a lot of companies’ plans – and that’s especially true across North American borders. But in all this chaos and turmoil there undoubtedly lies opportunity, and it will be interesting to see who ends up on top.
The new Liebherr S1 Vision 140-ton hauler is unlike any heavy haul truck currently on the market – primarily because the giant, self-propelled, single-axle autonomous bucket doesn’t look anything like any truck you’ve ever seen.
Liebherr says its latest heavy equipment concept was born from a desire to rethink truck design with a focus only on core functions. The resulting S1 Vision is primarily just a single axle with two powerful electric motors sending power to a pair of massive airless tires designed carry loads up to 131 tonnes (just over 140 tons).
The design enables rapid maintenance, as important components easily accessible for quick servicing. Wear parts can be replaced efficiently, and the electric drive significantly reduces maintenance work. This helps to minimise downtimes and increases operational efficiency.
LIEBHERR
Because of its versatility, durability, and ability to perform zero-turn maneuvers that other equipment simply can’t, the Liebherr S1 Vision can be adapted for various applications, including earthmoving, mining, and even agriculture. There’s also a nonzero chance of this technology finding applications supporting other on-site equipment through charging or fuel delivery.
The S1 accomplishes that trick safely with the help of an automatic load leveling system that ensures maximum stability, even on bumpy or rough terrain. The company says this technology significantly reduces the risk of tipping while providing smooth and secure operation across various environments.
The HD arm of Hyundai has just released the first official images of the new, battery-electric HX19e mini excavator – the first ever production electric excavator from the global South Korean manufacturer.
The HX19e will be the first all-electric asset to enter series production at Hyundai Construction Equipment, with manufacturing set to begin this April.
The new HX19e will be offered with either a 32 kWh or 40 kWh li-ion battery pack – which, according to Hyundai, is nearly double the capacity offered by its nearest competitor (pretty sure that’s not correct –Ed.). The 40kWh battery allows for up to 6 hours and 40 minutes of continuous operation between charges, with a break time top-up on delivering full shift usability.
Those batteries send power to a 13 kW (17.5 hp) electric motor that drives an open-center hydraulic system. Hyundai claims the system delivers job site performance that is at least equal to, if not better than, that of its diesel-powered HX19A mini excavator.
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To that end, the Hyundai XH19e offers the same 16 kN bucket breakout force and a slightly higher 9.4 kN (just over 2100 lb-ft) dipper arm breakout force. The maximum digging depth is 7.6 feet, and the maximum digging reach is 12.9 feet. Hyundai will offer the new electric excavator with just four selectable options:
enclosed cab vs. open canopy
32 or 40 kWh battery capacity
All HX19es will ship with a high standard specification that includes safety valves on the main boom, dipper arm, and dozer blade hydraulic cylinders, as well as two-way auxiliary hydraulic piping allows the machine to be used with a range of commercially available implements. The hydraulics needed to operate a quick coupler, LED booms lights, rotating beacons, an MP3 radio with USB connectivity, and an operator’s seat with mechanical suspension are also standard.
HX19e electric mini excavator; via Hyundai Construction Equipment.
The ability to operate indoors, underground, or in environments like zoos and hospitals were keeping noise levels down is of critical importance to the success of an operation makes electric equipment assets like these coming from Hyundai a must-have for fleet operators and construction crews that hope to remain competitive in the face of ever-increasing noise regulations. The fact that these are cleaner, safer, and cheaper to operate is just icing on that cake.