Annual mortgage repayments are set to rise by £2,900 for the average household remortgaging next year, according to a think tank.
As the UK’s “mortgage crunch” deepens, total annual mortgage repayments could rise by £15.8bn by 2026, the Resolution Foundation said.
Prolonged inflation has raised expectations that the Bank of England’s base rate-rising cycle, which started in December 2021, will continue for longer than originally thought.
Rates are now expected to peak, in mid-2024, at nearly 6%, the foundation said.
Those higher expectations are moving through into mortgage rates, with deals being withdrawn from the market and being replaced by higher rates.
Data released by Moneyfactscompare.co.uk indicated that the average two-year fixed-rate homeowner mortgage was just below the 6% mark, at 5.98%.
The Resolution Foundation said it is expected that the average two-year fixed-rate mortgage will not fall below 4.5% until the end of 2027.
More on Cost Of Living
Related Topics:
This would significantly increase the scale of the mortgage crunch currently unfolding, it said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
4:59
Ed Conway on what inflation means for economy and mortgages
Annual repayments are now on track to be £15.8bn a year higher by 2026 up from a projected £12bn increase at the time of the most recent Monetary Policy Report in early May, the foundation said.
Advertisement
Around three-fifths of this increase in annual mortgage payments is yet to be passed on to households, as borrowers move off existing fixed-rate mortgage deals on to new fixed-rates, up to 2026, the report added.
This is expected to deliver a rolling living standards hit to millions of households in the run-in to the next general election.
This year’s rate rises are also predicted by the foundation to increase the cost of a typical mortgage by 3% of typical household income this year – even bigger than a 2.4% increase seen in 1989.
The foundation, which focuses on improving living standards for those on low to middle incomes, said that the better news for the government, however, is that the current mortgage crunch is less widespread than previous shocks.
Back in 1989, nearly 40% of households owned a home with a mortgage, and were therefore exposed to rising costs.
By last year, the combination of more older people owning outright, and fewer young people owning homes at all, meant that the share of households with mortgages had fallen below 30%.
Overall, around 7.5 million households with a mortgage are expected to see their repayments rise by 2026, the report said.
Simon Pittaway, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Market expectations that interest rates are going to rise even higher, and stay higher for longer, are having a major effect on the mortgage market, with deals being pulled and replaced with new higher-rate mortgages.
“This means the mortgage crunch is now on track to increase mortgage bills by £15.8bn, with those re-mortgaging next year set to see their costs rise by £2,900 on average.”
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We know this is a concerning time for mortgage holders, which is why the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) requires lenders to offer tailored support to borrowers struggling to make their payments, and we continue to support mortgage holders through the Support for Mortgage Interest scheme.”
The appointment of the inaugural chair of English football’s new watchdog has been thrown into fresh uncertainty after Whitehall officials resumed contact with applicants who did not make it onto a final shortlist.
Sky News has learnt that the preferred candidate to chair the Independent Football Regulator (IFR) is now “unlikely” to be drawn from a group of three contenders interviewed months ago.
The search process has not been officially reopened, and insiders said the £130,000-a-year post was not expected to be readvertised.
They acknowledged, however, that a shortlist including former Aston Villa Football Club chief executive Christian Purslow would probably not produce the chosen candidate.
Sky News revealed in recent weeks that the other contenders were Sanjay Bhandari, who chairs the anti-racism football charity Kick It Out, and Professor Sir Ian Kennedy, who chaired the new parliamentary watchdog established after the MPs expenses scandal.
The delay to the appointment of the IFR’s inaugural chair will do little to dampen recent speculation that Sir Keir Starmer wants to pare back the powers of the football regulator amid a broader clampdown on Britain’s economic watchdogs.
Both 10 Downing Street and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) have sought to dismiss the speculation, with insiders insisting that the IFR will be established as originally envisaged.
More on Football
Related Topics:
The establishment of the regulator, which will be based in Manchester, is among the principal elements of legislation progressing through parliament.
The Football Governance Bill has just completed its journey through the House of Lords and will be introduced in the Commons shortly, according to a DCMS spokesman.
The establishment of the regulator, which was conceived by the previous Conservative government in the wake of the furore over the failed European Super League project, has triggered deep unrest in English football.
Steve Parish, the chairman of Premier League side Crystal Palace, told a recent sports industry conference that the watchdog “wants to interfere in all of the things we don’t need them to interfere in and help with none of the things we actually need help with”.
“We have a problem that we’re constantly being told that we’re not a business and [that] we’re part of the fabric of communities,” he is reported to have said.
“At the same time, we’re… being treated to the nth degree like a business.”
Interviews for the chair of the football regulator took place in November, with a previous recruitment process curtailed by the calling of last year’s general election.
Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, will sign off on the appointment of a preferred candidate, with the chosen individual expected to face a pre-appointment hearing in front of the Commons culture, media and sport select committee.
It forms part of a process that represents the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.
The establishment of the body comes with the top tier of the professional game gripped by civil war, with Abu Dhabi-owned Manchester City at the centre of a number of legal cases over its financial dealings.
The government has dropped a previous stipulation that the regulator should have regard to British foreign and trade policy when determining the appropriateness of a new club owner.
“We do not comment on speculation,” the DCMS said when asked about the process to recruit a chair of the football watchdog.
“No appointment has been made and the recruitment process for [IFR] chair is ongoing.”
MPs will today debate emergency laws to save British Steel after the prime minister warned the country’s “economic and national security is on the line”.
Sir Keir Starmer said the future of the company’s Scunthorpe plant – which employs about 3,500 people – “hangs in the balance” after its owner said the cost of running it was unsustainable.
The prime minister said legislation would be passed in one day to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options”.
MPs and Lords are being summoned from their Easter recess to debate the move and will sit from 11am.
The last time parliament was recalled was on 18 August 2021 to debate the situation in Afghanistan.
The government has been considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, the Chinese owner, cancelled future orders for iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the blast furnaces running.
More from Politics
The furnaces are the last in the UK capable of making virgin steel.
The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without it, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:31
Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces
In a statement on Friday, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.
“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance. Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”
The prime minister said steel was “part of our national story, part of the pride and heritage of this nation” and “essential for our future”.
He said the emergency law would give the business secretary powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.
This includes the power to direct the company’s board and workforce. It will also ensure it can order the raw materials to keep the furnaces running and ensure staff are paid.
Image: The Scunthorpe plant is the last in the UK that can make virgin steel. Pic: Reuters
Image: One of the two blast furnaces at Scunthorpe
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”, while Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the owner had left the government with “no choice”.
Mr Reynolds said Jingye had confirmed plans to close the Scunthorpe furnaces immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment.
The company said it had invested £1.2bn since taking over in 2020, but that the plant is losing £700,000 a day.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:15
What will happen with British Steel?
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government had landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.
She said when she was business secretary, she had negotiated a plan with British Steel “to limit job losses and keep the plant running”.
Ms Badenoch said the government had “bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable”.
She added: “Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government didn’t take similar action there.
The party’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, said: “Parliament is being recalled to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.
“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.”
Sir Keir Starmer has said the government will debate emergency legislation on Saturday to keep the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe open as “our economic and national security is on the line”.
The prime minister added that “the future of British Steel hangs in the balance” and legislation will be passed tomorrow to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options” for it.
MPs and Lords are being summoned back from Easter recess to Westminster to debate draft legislation on the plans, and will sit from 11am on Saturday.
The government had been actively considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, its Chinese owner in Scunthorpe, cancelled future orders for the iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the last blast furnaces in the UK running.
Jingye also rejected a £500m state rescue package in a move which raised fresh doubts about the 3,500 jobs at the Lincolnshire plant – with it feared the site would be forced to close as early as next week.
The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without the plant, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.
More from Politics
In a short statement delivered from Downing Street this evening, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.
“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance.
“Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”
Image: One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel’s Scunthorpe operation
‘A new era of global instability’
The prime minister added he has been to the site in Scunthorpe and met the steelworkers there.
He said he understands how “important steel is” to the “whole country” and continued: “It’s part of our national story, Part of the pride and heritage of this nation.
“And I’ll tell you this, it is essential for our future.
“[The government’s] plan for change means we need more steel, not less. So we will act with urgency… This situation and our response is unique.
“While it is true that we’re facing a new era of global instability, our concerns about this plant and negotiations to protect it have been running for years.”
Sir Keir said parliament will be recalled for a “Saturday sitting” and will “pass emergency legislation” in “one day” to give the business secretary the powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.
He added: “We will keep all options on the table. Our future is in our hands.”
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves posted on X after the statement that the government is “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”.
“We are securing Britain’s future,” she added.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:31
Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces
Tory leader criticises Starmer
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said this evening the Chinese owner of British steel has left the government with “no choice” but to act.
Jingye had confirmed plans to close the blast furnaces at Scunthorpe immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment from the UK government, Mr Reynolds added in a statement.
It came as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government has landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.
“As business secretary, I negotiated a modernisation plan with British Steel to limit job losses and keep the plant running, including introducing an electric arc furnace in Teesside, similar to what we did with Tata at Port Talbot steelworks.
“However, the union-led Labour government have bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable. Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”
She added the government’s attempts to find a solution to the crisis are inevitably “going to cost taxpayers a lot of money”.
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Image: British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
Meanwhile, the Unite union welcomed Sir Keir’s announcement by saying it is “absolutely the right thing to do to begin the process of nationalisation”.
The government has not confirmed plans to nationalise the company, but like the prime minister this evening, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said earlier this week that “all options” are on the table.
Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said this evening: “I am pleased that the government has listened to representations by Unite and other steel unions over the future of British Steel.
“Ministers could not have allowed a foundation industry to go under with the loss of more than 3,000 jobs and key skills… Discussions have been positive and whilst a longer-term plan needs to be developed, this gives workers the reprieve we have been asking for.”
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Welsh political party Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government did not take similar action to save that steelworks.
The party’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said: “Parliament is being recalled [on Saturday] to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.
“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.
“In a real emergency, governments step up to defend their strategic interests. Plaid Cymru recognised the importance of Welsh steelmaking. Labour chose to look the other way.
“When it was Wales, they mocked. Now it’s England, they act.
“Labour has taken Wales for granted for far too long – and the people of Wales won’t forget it.”