Annual mortgage repayments are set to rise by £2,900 for the average household remortgaging next year, according to a think tank.
As the UK’s “mortgage crunch” deepens, total annual mortgage repayments could rise by £15.8bn by 2026, the Resolution Foundation said.
Prolonged inflation has raised expectations that the Bank of England’s base rate-rising cycle, which started in December 2021, will continue for longer than originally thought.
Rates are now expected to peak, in mid-2024, at nearly 6%, the foundation said.
Those higher expectations are moving through into mortgage rates, with deals being withdrawn from the market and being replaced by higher rates.
Data released by Moneyfactscompare.co.uk indicated that the average two-year fixed-rate homeowner mortgage was just below the 6% mark, at 5.98%.
The Resolution Foundation said it is expected that the average two-year fixed-rate mortgage will not fall below 4.5% until the end of 2027.
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This would significantly increase the scale of the mortgage crunch currently unfolding, it said.
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Ed Conway on what inflation means for economy and mortgages
Annual repayments are now on track to be £15.8bn a year higher by 2026 up from a projected £12bn increase at the time of the most recent Monetary Policy Report in early May, the foundation said.
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Around three-fifths of this increase in annual mortgage payments is yet to be passed on to households, as borrowers move off existing fixed-rate mortgage deals on to new fixed-rates, up to 2026, the report added.
This is expected to deliver a rolling living standards hit to millions of households in the run-in to the next general election.
This year’s rate rises are also predicted by the foundation to increase the cost of a typical mortgage by 3% of typical household income this year – even bigger than a 2.4% increase seen in 1989.
The foundation, which focuses on improving living standards for those on low to middle incomes, said that the better news for the government, however, is that the current mortgage crunch is less widespread than previous shocks.
Back in 1989, nearly 40% of households owned a home with a mortgage, and were therefore exposed to rising costs.
By last year, the combination of more older people owning outright, and fewer young people owning homes at all, meant that the share of households with mortgages had fallen below 30%.
Overall, around 7.5 million households with a mortgage are expected to see their repayments rise by 2026, the report said.
Simon Pittaway, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Market expectations that interest rates are going to rise even higher, and stay higher for longer, are having a major effect on the mortgage market, with deals being pulled and replaced with new higher-rate mortgages.
“This means the mortgage crunch is now on track to increase mortgage bills by £15.8bn, with those re-mortgaging next year set to see their costs rise by £2,900 on average.”
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We know this is a concerning time for mortgage holders, which is why the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) requires lenders to offer tailored support to borrowers struggling to make their payments, and we continue to support mortgage holders through the Support for Mortgage Interest scheme.”
Plans to develop the UK’s largest untapped oilfield have been thwarted in a major climate court case.
A Scottish court ruled the previous Conservative government acted “unlawfully” when it green-lit the offshore Rosebank oilfield and smaller Jackdaw gas project.
The judge said the assessment of the projects’ climate damage failed to acknowledge the impact of burning the oil and gas, rather than just from getting them out of the ground.
The case is a victory for climate campaigners – the latest in a series of fossil fuel projects toppled in a domino effect triggered by a “game-changing” court ruling in June.
But the projects could yet still go ahead.
The new Labour administration, elected last July on a mandate to tackle climate change, must now consider the full climate impact of the so-called “downstream” emissions, and make a fresh decision, the court said.
Oil and gas still provide more than two thirds of the UK’s energy, although the volumes in Rosebank and Jackdaw would not dramatically lower UK imports. That makes any future decision on them “political”, said Dr Ewan Gibbs, energy historian at Glasgow University.
Labour could sign off on them while still sticking to its election promise of “no new licenses” for North Sea projects, as these projects already have licences, but just need final government consent.
Campaigners celebrate ‘historic win’
Philip Evans, senior campaigner at Greenpeace UK, which brought the Jackdaw case, said: “This is a historic win – the age of governments approving new drilling sites by ignoring their climate impacts is over.”
The case argued by campaign groups Greenpeace and Uplift last year was boosted by a landmark judgment from the higher Supreme Court in June, which ruled these types of emissions could no longer be omitted.
During a hearing in November, the sites’ developers – Shell, Equinor and Ithaca Energy – said they accepted the previous approvals had in fact been unlawful.
But they argued the projects should be allowed to proceed anyway, as they were at advanced stages and the goalposts had been moved.
Why fossil fuel companies are also pleased
Today, Lord Ericht from Scotland’s Court of Session overturned the approvals.
“The public interest in authorities acting lawfully and the private interest of members of the public in climate change outweigh the private interest of the developers,” he said.
“The decisions will be [quashed], and can be taken again, this time taking into account downstream emissions.”
In the meantime the companies are allowed to continue developing their sites, but not extract any of the oil and gas.
A spokesperson for Rosebank’s primary developer Equinor said: “We welcome today’s ruling and are pleased with the outcome which allows us to continue with progressing the Rosebank project while we await new consents.
“Rosebank is critical for the UK’s economic growth, with an estimated 77% (£6.6bn) of total direct investment benefiting UK businesses.”
Rosebank contains about 300 million barrels of oil, most of which would be exported. The smaller amounts of gas from Jackdaw were destined for UK use, but were not expected to make a dent in household bills.
A spokesperson for the government’s energy department said it will in spring issue updated guidance on environmental assessments, and companies could reapply for permissions under those terms.
They added: “Our priority is to deliver a fair, orderly and prosperous transition in the North Sea in line with our climate and legal obligations, which drives towards our clean energy future of energy security, lower bills, and good, long-term jobs.”
A spokesperson for Jackdaw developer Shell said: “Swift action is needed from the government so that we and other North Sea operators can make decisions about vital UK energy infrastructure.”
The Post Office has unveiled plans for scores more job cuts as part of a transformation plan aimed at boosting payouts for thousands of sub-postmasters.
Sky News has learnt the state-owned company was in the process of informing about 100 senior managers on Wednesday that their roles would be affected by its proposals.
Some of those individuals are expected to see their jobs disappear, although the precise number was unclear.
The changes represent the latest phase of an overhaul outlined by chairman Nigel Railton last November, in which he said he wanted to add £250m annually to Post Office sub-postmaster remuneration.
“The Post Office has a 360-year history of public service and today we want to secure that service for the future by learning from past mistakes and moving forward for the benefit of all postmasters,” Mr Railton said at the time.
“We can, and will, restore pride in working for a business with a legacy of service, rather than one of scandal.”
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The Post Office has been engulfed in crisis since the scale of the Horizon IT scandal became clear, with hundreds of sub-postmasters wrongly prosecuted for theft and fraud offences.
Brought to a wider public audience by the ITV drama Mr Bates vs The Post Office, it has been labelled Britain’s biggest miscarriage of justice.
Many of those affected suffered ill health, marital breakdowns or died before they were exonerated.
Former chief executive Paula Vennells, who insisted for years that the Horizon system was robust, was effectively stripped of her damehood in disgrace last year.
The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) has asked BCG, the management consultancy, to examine options for mutualising the Post Office, with further details expected to become clear this year.
A Post Office spokesman declined to comment on Wednesday morning.
It could increase potential GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 0.43% by 2050 according to a Frontier Economics study, she said. 60% of that boost would go to areas outside London and the southeast, increasing trade opportunities like Scotch whiskey and Scottish salmon, she added.
Ms Reeves said an expansion could create more than 100,000 jobs.
The announcement has been welcomed by some business groups but has been met with anger from London’s Labour mayor Sadiq Khan, the Lib Dems, the Green Party and environmental groups.
As part of a speech on funding infrastructure across the UK to promote growth, Ms Reeves said: “Persistent delays have caused doubts about our seriousness towards improving our economic prospects.”
She added that business groups like the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) and the Chambers of Commerce (BCC), as well as trade unions “are clear – a third runway is badly needed”.
Investments in green aviation fuel
Ms Reeves said the UK is “already making great strides in transitioning to cleaner and greener aviation” and announced the government is investing £63m over the next year into the Advanced Fuel Fund grant programme to support the development of sustainable aviation fuel production plants.
The government will be accepting proposals until the summer and will then carry out a “full assessment” through the Airport National Policy Statement to “ensure a third runway is delivered in line with our legal, environmental and climate objectives”.
Ms Reeves said the government expects any associated surface transport costs to the third runway’s construction to be be financed through private funding.
She added a decision on plans to expand Gatwick and Luton, which are currently under way, will be made by the transport secretary “shortly”.
However, he said last week he would not resign if the government approved a third runway despite threatening to resign from Gordon Brown’s cabinet as climate change secretary in 2009 over the plans and in 2018 he said an expansion was “very likely” to make air pollution worse.
He has now said the government can meet both its growth and net zero missions together.
London mayor opposes runway
Sadiq Khan said he remained opposed to a third runway “because of the severe impact it will have on noise, air pollution and meeting our climate change targets”.
He said he will carefully scrutinise any new proposals, “including the impact it will have on people living in the area and the huge knock-on effects for our transport infrastructure”.
“Despite the progress that’s been made in the aviation sector to make it more sustainable, I’m simply not convinced that you can have hundreds of thousands of additional flights at Heathrow every year without a hugely damaging impact on our environment,” he added.
Green Party MP Sian Berry said expanding airports “in the face of a climate emergency is the most irresponsible announcement from any government I have seen since the Liz Truss budget”.
Conservative shadow chancellor Mel Stride accused Ms Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer and “their job-destroying budget” of being “the biggest barriers to growth”.
“What’s worse, the anti-growth chancellor could not rule out coming back with yet more tax rises in March,” he added.
“This is a Labour government run by politicians who do not understand business, or where wealth comes from. Under new leadership, the Conservatives will continue to back businesses and hold this government to account.”