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Annual mortgage repayments are set to rise by £2,900 for the average household remortgaging next year, according to a think tank.

As the UK’s “mortgage crunch” deepens, total annual mortgage repayments could rise by £15.8bn by 2026, the Resolution Foundation said.

Prolonged inflation has raised expectations that the Bank of England’s base rate-rising cycle, which started in December 2021, will continue for longer than originally thought.

Rates are now expected to peak, in mid-2024, at nearly 6%, the foundation said.

Those higher expectations are moving through into mortgage rates, with deals being withdrawn from the market and being replaced by higher rates.

Data released by Moneyfactscompare.co.uk indicated that the average two-year fixed-rate homeowner mortgage was just below the 6% mark, at 5.98%.

The Resolution Foundation said it is expected that the average two-year fixed-rate mortgage will not fall below 4.5% until the end of 2027.

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This would significantly increase the scale of the mortgage crunch currently unfolding, it said.

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Ed Conway on what inflation means for economy and mortgages

Annual repayments are now on track to be £15.8bn a year higher by 2026 up from a projected £12bn increase at the time of the most recent Monetary Policy Report in early May, the foundation said.

Around three-fifths of this increase in annual mortgage payments is yet to be passed on to households, as borrowers move off existing fixed-rate mortgage deals on to new fixed-rates, up to 2026, the report added.

This is expected to deliver a rolling living standards hit to millions of households in the run-in to the next general election.

This year’s rate rises are also predicted by the foundation to increase the cost of a typical mortgage by 3% of typical household income this year – even bigger than a 2.4% increase seen in 1989.

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The foundation, which focuses on improving living standards for those on low to middle incomes, said that the better news for the government, however, is that the current mortgage crunch is less widespread than previous shocks.

Back in 1989, nearly 40% of households owned a home with a mortgage, and were therefore exposed to rising costs.

By last year, the combination of more older people owning outright, and fewer young people owning homes at all, meant that the share of households with mortgages had fallen below 30%.

Overall, around 7.5 million households with a mortgage are expected to see their repayments rise by 2026, the report said.

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Simon Pittaway, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Market expectations that interest rates are going to rise even higher, and stay higher for longer, are having a major effect on the mortgage market, with deals being pulled and replaced with new higher-rate mortgages.

“This means the mortgage crunch is now on track to increase mortgage bills by £15.8bn, with those re-mortgaging next year set to see their costs rise by £2,900 on average.”

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We know this is a concerning time for mortgage holders, which is why the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) requires lenders to offer tailored support to borrowers struggling to make their payments, and we continue to support mortgage holders through the Support for Mortgage Interest scheme.”

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A pub a day to close this year, industry body warns as it calls for cut to tax burden

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A pub a day to close this year, industry body warns as it calls for cut to tax burden

An industry body has warned that the equivalent of more than one pub a day is set to close across Great Britain this year.

According to the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), an estimated 378 venues will shut down across England, Wales and Scotland.

This would amount to more than 5,600 direct job losses, the industry body warns. It has called for a reduction in the cumulative tax and regulatory burden for the hospitality sector – including cutting business rates and beer duty.

The body – representing members that brew 90% of British beer and own more than 20,000 pubs – said such measures would slow the rate at which bars are closing.

BBPA chief executive Emma McClarkin said that while pubs are trading well, “most of the money that goes into the till goes straight back out in bills and taxes”.

“For many, it’s impossible to make a profit, which all too often leads to pubs turning off the lights for the last time,” she said.

“When a pub closes, it puts people out of a job, deprives communities of their heart and soul, and hurts the local economy.”

She urged the government to “proceed with meaningful business rates reform, mitigate these eye-watering new employment and EPR (extended producer responsibility) costs, and cut beer duty”.

“We’re not asking for special treatment, we just want the sector’s rich potential unleashed,” she added.

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The government has said it plans to reform the current business rates system, saying in March that an interim report on the measure would be published this summer.

From April, relief on property tax – that came in following the COVID-19 pandemic – was cut from 75% to 40%, leading to higher bills for hospitality, retail and leisure businesses.

The rate of employer National Insurance Contributions also rose from 13.8% to 15% that month, and the wage threshold was lowered from £9,100 to £5,000, under measures announced by Rachel Reeves in the October budget.

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Trump fires tariff threats at more nations as EU ‘ready for all scenarios’

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Trump fires tariff threats at more nations as EU 'ready for all scenarios'

Donald Trump has revealed a list of more nations set to face delayed ‘liberation day’ tariffs from 1 August.

He has threatened tariffs of 30% on Algeria, 25% on Brunei, 30% on Iraq, 30% on Libya, 25% on Moldova and 20% on the Philippines. Sri Lanka was later told it faced a 30% duty.

Letters setting out the planned rates – and warning against retaliation – are being sent to the leaders of each country.

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They were the latest to be informed of the president‘s plans after Japan and South Korea were among the first 14 nations to be told of the rates they must pay on their general exports to the US from 1 August.

The duties are on top of sectoral tariffs, covering areas such as steel and cars, already in place.

Mr Trump further warned, on Tuesday, that a 50% tariff rate on all copper imports to the US was looming.

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He has also threatened a 200% rate on pharmaceuticals and is also expected to take aim at all imports of semiconductors too.

The European Union, America’s largest trading partner in combined trade, services and investment, is expected to get a letter within the next 48 hours unless further progress is made in continuing talks.

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The bloc, which Mr Trump has previously claimed was created to “screw” the US, has been in negotiations with US officials for weeks and working to agree a UK-style truce by the end of the month.

The EU has retaliatory tariffs ready to deploy from 14 July but it is widely expected to delay them until such time that any heightened US duties are imposed.

Read more from Sky News:
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Trump to visit UK ‘in weeks’

It remains hopeful of a deal in the coming days but European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament: “We stick to our principles, we defend our interests, we continue to work in good faith, and we get ready for all scenarios.”

While the UK’s so-called deal with Mr Trump is now in force, it remains unclear whether steelmakers will have to pay a 50% tariff rate, deployed by the US against the rest of the world, as some final details on an exemption are yet to be worked out.

The rate is currently 25%.

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Nvidia wins race to become first $4trn listed company

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Nvidia wins race to become first trn listed company

Nvidia has become the first stock market-listed company to achieve a value of $4trn.

Its share price rose by more than 2% at the market open on Wall Street to reach the milestone moment.

It was achieved just over a year since Nvidia overcame the $3trn barrier and overtook Apple, in market cap terms, in the process.

The AI-focused chipmaker has been the darling of Wall Street for many years.

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The value of its shares has risen by 409,825% since its market debut in 1999.

Its status has been cemented thanks to the rush for AI technology – suffering several wobbles along the way – but nothing significant when you refer to the percentage rise of the past 26 years.

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The most recent pressures have come from the emergence of the low-cost chatbot DeepSeek and concerns for global AI demand as a result of Donald Trump’s trade war hitting growth.

Financial markets have been taking a more risk-on approach to the trade war since the delays to “liberation day” tariffs in April.

It’s explained by a market trend that’s become known as the TACO trade: Trump always chickens out.

Nvidia hits $4trn valuation
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The milestone is reported by Sky’s US partner CNBC, seen on screens at the New York Stock Exchange. Pic: Reuters

It has helped US stock markets post new record highs in recent days.

The wave of optimism is down to the fact that the president is yet to follow through with the worst of his threatened tariffs on trading partners.

Corporations are also yet to report big hits to their earnings – a fact that is also propping up demand for shares.

If Mr Trump does go all-out in his trade war, as he has now threatened from 1 August, then that $4trn market value for Nvidia – and wider stock markets – could be short-lived, at least in the short term.

But market analysts believe Nvidia’s value has further to go.

Read more from Sky News:
Greater risk to UK economy from Trump tariffs, BoE warns
What is a wealth tax and how would it work?

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said of its meteoric rise: “Once known for powering video games, NVIDIA has transformed into a foundational player in AI infrastructure.

“Its high-performance chips now drive everything from natural language processing to robotics, making them essential to training and deploying advanced AI models.

“Beyond hardware, its full-stack ecosystem – including software platforms and developer tools – helps companies scale AI quickly and efficiently. This end-to-end approach has positioned Nvidia as a cornerstone in a market where speed, scalability, and efficiency are critical.”

He added: “The key question is where it goes from here, and while it might seem strange for a company that’s just passed the $4trn mark, Nvidia still looks attractive.

“Growth is expected to slow, and it’s likely to lose some market share as competition and custom solutions ramp up. But trading at a relatively modest 32 times expected earnings, and over 50% top-line growth forecast this year, there’s still an attractive opportunity ahead.

“For investors, it remains a compelling way to gain exposure to the AI boom – not just as a participant, but as one of its architects.”

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