Annual mortgage repayments are set to rise by £2,900 for the average household remortgaging next year, according to a think tank.
As the UK’s “mortgage crunch” deepens, total annual mortgage repayments could rise by £15.8bn by 2026, the Resolution Foundation said.
Prolonged inflation has raised expectations that the Bank of England’s base rate-rising cycle, which started in December 2021, will continue for longer than originally thought.
Rates are now expected to peak, in mid-2024, at nearly 6%, the foundation said.
Those higher expectations are moving through into mortgage rates, with deals being withdrawn from the market and being replaced by higher rates.
Data released by Moneyfactscompare.co.uk indicated that the average two-year fixed-rate homeowner mortgage was just below the 6% mark, at 5.98%.
The Resolution Foundation said it is expected that the average two-year fixed-rate mortgage will not fall below 4.5% until the end of 2027.
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This would significantly increase the scale of the mortgage crunch currently unfolding, it said.
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Ed Conway on what inflation means for economy and mortgages
Annual repayments are now on track to be £15.8bn a year higher by 2026 up from a projected £12bn increase at the time of the most recent Monetary Policy Report in early May, the foundation said.
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Around three-fifths of this increase in annual mortgage payments is yet to be passed on to households, as borrowers move off existing fixed-rate mortgage deals on to new fixed-rates, up to 2026, the report added.
This is expected to deliver a rolling living standards hit to millions of households in the run-in to the next general election.
This year’s rate rises are also predicted by the foundation to increase the cost of a typical mortgage by 3% of typical household income this year – even bigger than a 2.4% increase seen in 1989.
The foundation, which focuses on improving living standards for those on low to middle incomes, said that the better news for the government, however, is that the current mortgage crunch is less widespread than previous shocks.
Back in 1989, nearly 40% of households owned a home with a mortgage, and were therefore exposed to rising costs.
By last year, the combination of more older people owning outright, and fewer young people owning homes at all, meant that the share of households with mortgages had fallen below 30%.
Overall, around 7.5 million households with a mortgage are expected to see their repayments rise by 2026, the report said.
Simon Pittaway, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Market expectations that interest rates are going to rise even higher, and stay higher for longer, are having a major effect on the mortgage market, with deals being pulled and replaced with new higher-rate mortgages.
“This means the mortgage crunch is now on track to increase mortgage bills by £15.8bn, with those re-mortgaging next year set to see their costs rise by £2,900 on average.”
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We know this is a concerning time for mortgage holders, which is why the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) requires lenders to offer tailored support to borrowers struggling to make their payments, and we continue to support mortgage holders through the Support for Mortgage Interest scheme.”
A former executive at DAZN, the sports streaming platform, is to be appointed this week as the next chairman of Playtech, the London-listed gambling technology group.
Sky News has learnt that Playtech will announce on Wednesday that John Gleasure, who was also a co-founder of the digital sports media group Perform, is to succeed Brian Mattingley in the role.
In accepting the Playtech chairmanship, Mr Gleasure will inherit a position which has repeatedly been at the centre of fractious corporate governance challenges.
Mr Mattingley, who has held the role since 2021, has overseen a frenetic period of corporate activity while also finding himself in the eye of a series of storms with shareholders over boardroom pay.
The most recent of those came in December when close to a third of investors rebelled over a €100m bonus plan for Mor Weizer, the company’s chief executive, along with other senior executives.
Shareholders give Mr Mattingley credit, however, for helping to navigate the company through a challenging period in the gambling industry, in particular his role last year in securing the sale of Snaitech, its Italian consumer gambling arm, for €2.3bn.
That deal, which received regulatory approval last week, represented a near-threefold return on Playtech’s initial investment and will trigger a special dividend worth up to €1.8bn (£1.5bn), to be paid in June.
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The sale of Snaitech will transform Playtech into a pure-play business-to-business operation.
Many analysts believe the remaining company will rapidly become a takeover target.
A source close to Playtech pointed out that shares in the company had risen nearly 60% during Mr Mattingley’s tenure.
Mr Gleasure, who will succeed Mr Mattingley as chairman after Playtech’s annual meeting next month, has also held roles at Sky Sports, which shares a parent company with Sky News, Hutchison 3G and Sony Pictures.
He continues to sit on the board of DAZN Group and is executive chairman of The Sporting News, a digital publisher in which Playtech acquired a minority interest in 2023.
Egon Zehnder International, the boardroom headhunter, has been overseeing the search for Mr Mattingley’s successor.
A Playtech spokesperson declined to comment on Tuesday.
Victims of the Post Office Horizon scandal have been urged to take legal action against the government over compensation delays.
In an email to victims seen by Sky News, Post Office campaigner Sir Alan Bates suggested it would be November 2027 before all the claims are finished based on the current rate of progress.
He told them going to court was “probably the quickest way to ensure fairness for all”.
Hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongfully prosecuted for theft and false accounting after Fujitsu-made accounting software Horizon inaccurately generated financial shortfalls, making it appear money was missing from Post Offices across the UK.
Many other sub-postmasters were made bankrupt, suffered ill health and experienced relationship breakdowns as a result of the falsely generated shortfalls and how the Post Office, a state-owned company, responded.
‘Lawyers taking every opportunity to challenge’
Compensation claims are processed through schemes administered by the Department of Business and Trade (DBT).
Sir Alan said one scheme in particular – the group litigation order (GLO) scheme for the 555 people who successfully took legal action against the Post Office and exposed the scandal – was “a mess”.
“Advice on how to streamline and speed up the scheme which has been offered to the DBT by ourselves, your lawyers and even the DBT Select Committee is ignored out of hand with the feeblest of excuses,” he said.
The government disputed the forecast by Sir Alan that it would take until 2027 for all claims to be settled and said it was “settling claims at a faster rate than ever before”.
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Sir Alan Bates accepts knighthood
The problem was not unique to the GLO scheme, Sir Alan said, saying administration and application problems beset all four plans for victims impacted in different ways by the miscarriage of justice.
The majority of applicants have had “substantially undervalued offers” from the government, Sir Alan said.
“The DBT lawyers appear to be taking every opportunity to challenge figures when the DBT has already paid for your lawyers to test and verify the claims before they are submitted.
“It appears that the DBT will pay out the smaller claims of about 60 to 80% of value, but the larger, which form the bulk of the outstanding claims, are continually being fought by DBT’s lawyers.”
More information is regularly sought from the victim, which Sir Alan said was “obviously not available” and delayed compensation offers.
“They also seem to be reducing offers by 50% where a spouse is involved, and it seems they will use almost any other tactic to ensure that the DBT does not have to pay out what has already been verified before the claim was submitted.”
Citing figures from the department, Sir Alan’s email said 66 cases had been fully settled in the last six months, with 210 yet to be settled.
The ‘quickest way to fairness’
Sir Alan suggested legal action was the “quickest way to ensure fairness for all”, though he acknowledged that “returning to the courts may seem to be a long haul”.
“There may be other options but the one which is repeatedly mentioned is a judicial review, not just for the GLO Scheme but to include all of the schemes to ensure there is parity in the way victims have, and are, being treated,” the email said.
A new legal action may be appropriate for people who have accepted offers, Sir Alan said, “a new legal action may well be a way of having your claim reassessed once more, this time by the courts”.
Victims from each scheme would need to come forward to move the campaign on, Sir Alan said, as he urged people to “step up”.
Image: Alan Bates speaks to the the media.
Pic: PA
A national fundraising campaign may be needed to cover the costs of this action, the email added, which Sir Alan said he may be able to help set up.
The government had said in October 2023 it was “determined to deliver” the GLO scheme by August 2024 and last year rejected a March 2025 deadline sought by campaigners for all payments to be finalised.
“We will be able to get substantial redress paid out to those individuals by the end of March”, Post Office minister Gareth Thomas told the Commons in December.
Government ‘does not accept forecast’
Responding to Sir Alan’s suggestion it would take until 2027 to settle all claims, a government spokesperson said, “we do not accept this forecast”.
“The facts show we are making almost 90% of initial GLO offers within 40 working days of receiving completed claims. As of 31 March, 76% of the group had received full and final redress, or 80% of their offer.”
“So long as claimants respond reasonably promptly, we would expect to settle all claims by the end of this year.
“We have trebled the number of payments under this government and are settling claims at a faster rate than ever before to provide full and fair redress.”
The pace of wage rises has slowed and came in lower than expected, official figures show.
Both average weekly earnings and wages excluding bonuses came in lower than expected, a boost to interest rate setters at the Bank of England, potentially opening the door for steeper borrowing cost deductions.
There was no change at all in the growth of average weekly earnings, which continued to rise 5.6%, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the three months to February.
Nevertheless, wage growth was described as “strong” by the ONS. While private sector pay was “little changed”, public sector growth accelerated as pay rises fed through to headline figures. Public sector pay rose by 5.7%, up from 5.2% a month earlier.
What does it mean for interest rates?
The figures are likely to be a boost to the Bank of England, which had been concerned about the inflationary impact of speedily rising wages.
A cut is widely expected when members of the Monetary Policy Committee meet next month. They’re anticipated to reduce the rate to 4.25%.
The Bank of England, as the UK’s central bank, is mandated to bring inflation down to 2% by increasing or decreasing interest rates, which can stimulate or suppress growth by controlling how cheap or expensive it is to borrow money.
How’s the jobs market faring?
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%.
The ONS, however, has advised caution in interpreting changes in the monthly unemployment rate due to concerns over the figures’ reliability.
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‘National living wage going up’
The exact number of unemployed people is unknown, partly because people don’t answer the phone when the ONS calls.
There are signs, however, of cautious hiring as job vacancies fell to pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2021.
As well as rising minimum wages, there are increased costs for employers in the form of higher national insurance contributions.