There is by now a degree of predictability to Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s outbursts.
Cause maximum outrage, swear a lot, declare that this is the point of no return and then, somewhat miraculously, settle with the warring party which is invariably Russia’sMinistry of Defence.
Thus it was in the fight over ammunition, when Prigozhindeclared his forces ready to quit the battle for Bakhmut unless he was given the ammunition he needed.
This past week he has been railing against signing a contract to bring his forces under the direct control of Russia’s armed forces.
On Friday, after comments from Vladimir Putin that signing was mandatory, Prigozhin arrived in Moscow with a contract of his own which, in effect, tries to formalise Wagner as an equivalent but separate military force to the Russian army.
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He wants a guaranteed supply of weapons and ammunition, the personal participation of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in all Wagner meetings and a Wagner representative to serve as Shoigu’s deputy.
He also wants criminal investigations of commanders he deems responsible for the deaths of Wagner troops because of a lack of kit.
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It is unlikely Shoigu – or indeed Putin – will agree to any of that.
The stand-off continues.
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5:51
What’s going on with Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Prigozhin likes to aim high but this may be an act of desperation as he recognises his influence is on the wane.
“Just before the Ukrainian counteroffensive there was this idea that Wagner was the only really capable military unit on the Russian side,” said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian journalist and expert on the country’s security services.
“Now we see Wagner is not playing a really big role in the counteroffensive, the Russian army is getting more prominent and people aren’t talking about Prigozhin as much as we did just a month ago.”
Divide and rule is the Russian president’s modus operandi.
Play Prigozhin off against Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader (who has signed the army contract); play Prigozhin off against the Russian Ministry of Defence to make sure no one gets ideas too big for their station.
But Prigozhin has been extremely careful, barring one possible slip which he was quick to correct, not to criticise the Russian president directly.
“He is a product of the Kremlin,” said Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.
“He can be against part of the elite but at the same time, if he were against Putin, he would disappear overnight.”
Disappear not in the sense of assassination, more an assimilation into the bureaucracy that Prigozhin loves to hate.
Image: Vladimir Putin has played off Yevgeny Prigozhin, centre, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, left
Prigozhin understands what’s needed of him in the Putin system, whether that is by way of internet trolls, mercenaries pushing through the Kremlin’s agenda in far-flung corners of the world or setting the precedent for convict-based cannon-fodder.
Recently he has been touring the Russian region, talking all about the need for further mobilisation, both militarily and economically.
Knowing the state of the battlefield better than most, he may recognise that Putin will be forced to call for another round of mobilisation in the not too distant future.
Either way, seeding the idea can’t hurt.
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11:04
Ukrainian village’s ’28 days in hell’
“This is a kind of ‘meet the people’ for Prigozhin, should the political technologists in the Kremlin decide that it’s worth having him as head of an ultra-patriotic political party,” said Mark Galeotti, security analyst and director of Mayak Intelligence.
“He realises that his role in charge of Wagner, or at least Wagner in Ukraine, is beginning to come to an end, that Shoigu is not going to let him continue as before.”
Shoigu is clearly more wily than Prigozhin gives him credit for.
The ball is now in his court.
Image: Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu. Pic: AP
What is noticeable is how small a role the commander-in-chief has been playing in all the back-and-forth between Wagner and the defence ministry, wary of destabilising things with the Ukrainian counteroffensive underway.
If Prigozhin is the kid screaming in the playground, (a very dangerous one at that), then Putin is the rabbit caught in the headlights.
“Putin at the moment has been doing everything he can to avoid making tough decisions,” said Mr Galeotti.
“To actually deal with Prigozhin would be a tough decision and when he’s faced with a tough decision, Putin tries to duck it.
“He hopes it’ll go away and then eventually, if he has to make it, he tends to make it badly and late.”
Iran claims it has carried out a “mighty and successful response” to “America’s aggression” after launching missile attacks on US military bases in Qatar and Iraq.
The attacks come after the US dropped “bunker buster bombs” on three key nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend.
Iran’s response this evening is the latest escalation in tensions in the volatile region.
Qatar has said there are no casualties at the al Udeid base following the strikes and that its “air defences thwarted the attack and successfully intercepted the Iranian missiles”.
People in Qatar’s capital, Doha, had stopped and gazed up at the sky as missiles flew and interceptors fired.
Iran had announced on state television that it had attacked American forces stationed at the al Udeid airbase.
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A caption on screen called it “a mighty and successful response” to “America’s aggression” as martial music played.
Iran also targeted the Ain al-Assad base housing US troops in western Iraq, an Iraqi security official told the Associated Press.
Image: Traces are seen in the sky over Qatar after Iran’s armed forces targeted the al Udeid base. Pic: Reuters
A US government official has said the White House and US defence department is “closely monitoring” the potential threats to its base.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is in the Situation Room in the White House with his team following the Iranian strikes.
The attacks came shortly after Qatar closed its airspace as a precaution amid threats from Iran.
Just before the explosions, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on the social platform X: “We neither initiated the war nor seeking it. But we will not leave invasion to the great Iran without answer.”
Nearly 200 firefighters are battling a major wildfire on the Greek island of Chios.
The fire started on Sunday in three separate locations near the main town, which is also called Chios. The flames were fanned by strong winds and turned into one large blaze.
Local media footage and photos showed firefighters battling towering flames burning through woodland and farmland as night fell. Power cuts have also been reported.
Greek authorities sent fresh evacuation notifications for two areas near Chios town on Monday morning.
Image: People watch a wildfire approaching. Pic: Politischios.gr /AP
Push alerts have been sent to mobile phones in the area urging people to evacuate a total of 16 villages, settlements and neighbourhoods on the outskirts of the town.
“The situation remains critical as firefighting forces are still dealing with many active fronts, several of which being near hamlets,” a Greek government spokesman said.
The fire department said 190 firefighters were trying to control the fire on Monday, with strong winds hampering their efforts.
Image: Pic: Politischios/AP
Some 35 vehicles, five helicopters and two water-dropping planes were also involved in the effort.
A specialist fire department arson investigation team has been sent to the eastern Aegean island to look into the causes.
It happened at a Greek Orthodox church in Damascus, with estimates suggesting that 350 worshippers were praying there at the time.
Image: Pic: White Helmets via Reuters
Witnesses said the perpetrator had his face covered when he began shooting – and blew himself up as crowds attempted to remove him from the building.
A security source told Reuters that two men were involved in the attack, with a priest saying he saw a second gunman at the entrance.
Officials say 63 people were injured, and children were among the casualties.
Syria’s information minister, Hamza Mostafa, condemned the terrorist attack – writing on X: “This cowardly act goes against the civic values that bring us together.
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“We will not back down from our commitment to equal citizenship… and we also affirm the state’s pledge to exert all its efforts to combat criminal organisations.”
Reports suggest that IS has attempted to attack several churches in Syria since Assad fell, but this is the first time they have succeeded.
Footage filmed by Syria’s civil defence, the White Helmets, showed scenes of destruction inside the church – including bloodied floors and shattered pews.
The Greek foreign ministry says it “unequivocally condemns the abhorrent terrorist suicide bombing”, and called on Syria “to guarantee the safety” of Christians with new measures.