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There is by now a degree of predictability to Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s outbursts.

Cause maximum outrage, swear a lot, declare that this is the point of no return and then, somewhat miraculously, settle with the warring party which is invariably Russia’s Ministry of Defence.

Thus it was in the fight over ammunition, when Prigozhin declared his forces ready to quit the battle for Bakhmut unless he was given the ammunition he needed.

He clearly received some, and he stayed.

Ukraine war latest – fears Russia is mapping undersea energy infrastructure

This past week he has been railing against signing a contract to bring his forces under the direct control of Russia’s armed forces.

On Friday, after comments from Vladimir Putin that signing was mandatory, Prigozhin arrived in Moscow with a contract of his own which, in effect, tries to formalise Wagner as an equivalent but separate military force to the Russian army.

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He wants a guaranteed supply of weapons and ammunition, the personal participation of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in all Wagner meetings and a Wagner representative to serve as Shoigu’s deputy.

He also wants criminal investigations of commanders he deems responsible for the deaths of Wagner troops because of a lack of kit.

It is unlikely Shoigu – or indeed Putin – will agree to any of that.

The stand-off continues.

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What’s going on with Yevgeny Prigozhin?

Prigozhin likes to aim high but this may be an act of desperation as he recognises his influence is on the wane.

“Just before the Ukrainian counteroffensive there was this idea that Wagner was the only really capable military unit on the Russian side,” said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian journalist and expert on the country’s security services.

“Now we see Wagner is not playing a really big role in the counteroffensive, the Russian army is getting more prominent and people aren’t talking about Prigozhin as much as we did just a month ago.”

Divide and rule is the Russian president’s modus operandi.

Play Prigozhin off against Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader (who has signed the army contract); play Prigozhin off against the Russian Ministry of Defence to make sure no one gets ideas too big for their station.

But Prigozhin has been extremely careful, barring one possible slip which he was quick to correct, not to criticise the Russian president directly.

“He is a product of the Kremlin,” said Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.

“He can be against part of the elite but at the same time, if he were against Putin, he would disappear overnight.”

Disappear not in the sense of assassination, more an assimilation into the bureaucracy that Prigozhin loves to hate.

Face masks depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, owner of private military company Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin, centre, and Chechnya's regional leader Ramzan Kadyrov, left, are displayed among others for sale at a souvenir shop in St. Petersburg, Russia, Sunday, June 4, 2023. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)
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Vladimir Putin has played off Yevgeny Prigozhin, centre, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, left

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Prigozhin understands what’s needed of him in the Putin system, whether that is by way of internet trolls, mercenaries pushing through the Kremlin’s agenda in far-flung corners of the world or setting the precedent for convict-based cannon-fodder.

Recently he has been touring the Russian region, talking all about the need for further mobilisation, both militarily and economically.

Knowing the state of the battlefield better than most, he may recognise that Putin will be forced to call for another round of mobilisation in the not too distant future.

Either way, seeding the idea can’t hurt.

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Ukrainian village’s ’28 days in hell’

“This is a kind of ‘meet the people’ for Prigozhin, should the political technologists in the Kremlin decide that it’s worth having him as head of an ultra-patriotic political party,” said Mark Galeotti, security analyst and director of Mayak Intelligence.

“He realises that his role in charge of Wagner, or at least Wagner in Ukraine, is beginning to come to an end, that Shoigu is not going to let him continue as before.”

Shoigu is clearly more wily than Prigozhin gives him credit for.

The ball is now in his court.

Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu. Pic: AP
Image:
Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu. Pic: AP

What is noticeable is how small a role the commander-in-chief has been playing in all the back-and-forth between Wagner and the defence ministry, wary of destabilising things with the Ukrainian counteroffensive underway.

If Prigozhin is the kid screaming in the playground, (a very dangerous one at that), then Putin is the rabbit caught in the headlights.

“Putin at the moment has been doing everything he can to avoid making tough decisions,” said Mr Galeotti.

“To actually deal with Prigozhin would be a tough decision and when he’s faced with a tough decision, Putin tries to duck it.

“He hopes it’ll go away and then eventually, if he has to make it, he tends to make it badly and late.”

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‘I’m not so careful with what I say’ – is Trump feeling more invincible than ever?

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'I'm not so careful with what I say' - is Trump feeling more invincible than ever?

It was one sentence among the many words Donald Trump spoke this week that caught my attention.

Midway through a jaw-dropping news conference where he sensationally claimed to have “found an answer on autism”, he said: “Bobby (Kennedy) wants to be very careful with what he says, but I’m not so careful with what I say.”

The US president has gone from pushing the envelope to completely unfiltered.

Last Sunday, moments after Charlie Kirk‘s widow Erika had publicly forgiven her husband’s killer, Mr Trump told the congregation at his memorial service that he “hates his opponents”.

President Donald Trump embraces Charlie Kirk's widow Erika. Pic: AP
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President Donald Trump embraces Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika. Pic: AP

Twenty-four hours later, he drew fierce rebuke from medical experts by linking the use of Tylenol (paracetamol) during pregnancy to increased risk of autism.

The president treats professional disapproval not as a liability but as evidence of authenticity, fuelling the aura that he is a challenger of conventions.

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‘Paracetamol use in pregnancy perfectly safe’

On Tuesday, he went to the United Nations, where his frustrations over a stalled escalator and teleprompter failure were the prelude to the most combative address.

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“I’m really good at this stuff. Your countries are going to hell,” he told his audience, deriding Europe’s approach to immigration as a “failed experiment of open borders”.

Mr Trump addresses the UN General Assembly in New York. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Mr Trump addresses the UN General Assembly in New York. Pic: Reuters

Then came a U-turn on Ukraine, suggesting the country could win back all the land it has lost to Russia.

Most politicians would be punished for inconsistency, but Mr Trump recasts this as strategic genius – framing himself as dictating the terms.

It is hard to keep track when his expressed hopes for peace in Ukraine and Gaza are peppered with social media posts condemning the return of Jimmy Kimmel to late-night television.

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Trump’s major shift in Ukraine policy

Perhaps most striking of all is his reaction to the indictment of James Comey, the FBI director he fired during his first term.

In theory, this should raise questions about the president’s past conflicts with law enforcement, but he frames it as vindication, proof that his enemies fall while he survives.

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Ex-FBI chief: ‘Costs to standing up to Trump’

Mr Trump has spent much of his political career cultivating an image of a man above the normal consequences of politics, law or diplomacy, but he appears to feel more invincible than ever.

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From funerals to world summits, world peace to public health, he projects the same image: rules are for others.

It is the politics of the untouchable.

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Russia launches massive attack on Kyiv – as Poland scrambles jets and closes airspace

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Russia launches massive attack on Kyiv - as Poland scrambles jets and closes airspace

Russia has launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine’s capital this morning, injuring at least six people, Kyiv’s military administration has said.

Poland closed the airspace near two of its southeastern cities, Lublin and Rzeszow, as its air force scrambled jets in response to Russia’s attack on Kyiv.

Drones flew over Kyiv and anti-aircraft fire rang out through the night in what independent monitors said was one of the biggest strikes on the city since the Ukraine war began in February 2022.

The attack started at around 6am local time and many regions across the country are under air raid alert.

Some residents have fled to metro stations deep underground for safety as the attack continues.

Poland said it had closed its airspace near the two cities until at least 4am GMT due to “unplanned military activity related to ensuring state security”, flight tracking service Flightradar24 said.

“In connection with the activity of the Russian Federation’s long-range aviation carrying out strikes on the territory of
Ukraine, Polish and allied aircraft have begun operating in our airspace,” the military said in a post on X.

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It described the actions as preventive and aimed at securing airspace and protecting citizens.

It comes as Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was expected to address allegations made against Moscow that it has violated the airspace of several of its neighbours in recent weeks, as he spoke in New York at the 80th UN General Assembly.

A NATO air defence mission was recently carried out over Poland in response to “unprecedented” Russian drone incursions above the country.

During his address, Mr Lavrov, who has been Russia’s foreign minister for 21 years, says his country had no intention of attacking any NATO or EU member state but warned of a “decisive response” if any “aggression” was directed towards Moscow.

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Sergei Lavrov warns NATO and EU countries over ‘aggression’ towards Russia

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Sergei Lavrov warns NATO and EU countries over 'aggression' towards Russia

Vladimir Putin’s top diplomat says Russia has no intention of attacking any NATO or EU member state but warned of a “decisive response” if any “aggression” was directed towards Moscow.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia‘s foreign minister of 21 years, was speaking in New York at the 80th UN General Assembly, where he said threats against his country by Western nations were becoming “increasingly common”.

He was expected to address allegations made against Moscow that it has violated the airspace of several of its neighbours in recent weeks, heightening tensions across Europe.

Estonia said Russian fighter jets flew into its airspace last week and remained there for 12 minutes, while a NATO air defence mission was recently carried out over Poland in response to “unprecedented” Russian drone incursions above the country.

Romania and Latvia also reported that single Russian drones had violated their airspace this month.

“Threats of force against Russia, accused of practically planning an attack on the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union, are becoming increasingly common,” Mr Lavrov said in New York.

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“President Putin has repeatedly debunked such provocations. Russia has never had and does not have such intentions, but any aggression against my country will be met with a decisive response.”

At the start of the week, US President Donald Trump told the UN that NATO nations should shoot down Russian planes in their airspace.

‘They will regret it’

After his UN address, Mr Lavrov held a news conference, where he insisted again that Moscow “has nothing to hide” over the allegations against it.

He was then asked by US correspondent Mark Stone what the Kremlin’s response would be if a nation shot down a Russian drone or plane in Russian airspace.

“Try to understand that a drone, when it is flying not over our territory, but if it crosses someone’s border but has left our airspace, probably everyone has the right to do with that drone whatever they consider necessary to ensure their security.

“But if there are attempts to shoot down any flying object, or indeed any object at all, on our territory, in our airspace, then I think people will seriously regret it, undertaking such a gross violation of our territorial integrity, our sovereignty.”

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Watch: Sergei Lavrov answers Sky News question in New York

‘Hypocrisy’ over Gaza comments

At the start of his UN speech, Mr Lavrov took time to criticise Israel’s actions in the Middle East, accusing it of trying to “blow up” the region and saying it had “no justification” for the “brutal killings” of Palestinians in Gaza.

“The illegal use of force against the Palestinians and aggressive actions against Iran, Qatar, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq today threaten to blow up the entire Middle East.”

He also hit out at Israeli plans to annex the West Bank: “There is no justification for plans to annex the West Bank. This is essentially a coup d’etat in diplomatic terms.”

Israel has repeatedly claimed that it does not target civilians in Gaza and says its military actions across the Middle East are strategically vital for its self-defence.

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Mark Stone reflects on Sergei Lavrov’s UN address

Mark Stone said Mr Lavrov’s comments on Israel’s actions will be seen as highly hypocritical given Russia’s war in Ukraine which began in February 2022.

“Lavrov said Israel is bombing schools, it is bombing hospitals in Gaza,” Stone said.

“Well, remember Mariupol and the rest of those cities in Ukraine, where Russia has and continues to do just the same thing? There’s a certain hypocrisy there, for sure.”

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