Can Ukraine’s counteroffensive prevail without combat air cover, and will the West come to regret not providing Ukraine with such battle-winning capability?
Although the West has provided a wealth of financial and military support to Ukraine to help combat the illegal invasion of Russian forces, it has been reluctant to provide the modern Western air power that President Zelenskyy clearly needs.
For much of the war in Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has been conspicuous by its absence.
Primarily used to launch long-range missiles at targets all over Ukraine, the Russian fighter jets have found the airspace over Ukraine particularly dangerous, and reports suggest they have lost 10% of their assets in the war to date.
The Russian Air Force has been constrained – to some degree – by the provision of modern Western air defence systems; however, since the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the Russian Air Force has increased dramatically its sortie rate and effectiveness.
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Ukrainian village’s ’28 days in hell’
Air superiority is the degree of dominance that permits the conduct of operations by one side and its related land, sea and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by opposing air forces.
Successful land operations without local air superiority are very difficult; even in Afghanistan, just the sound of jet noise sparked panic in the Taliban fighters.
However, Ukraine does not have the air power capability to dominate the skies and is obliged to conduct its much-anticipated counteroffensive without effective air support.
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As an interim measure, the West has provided a comprehensive suite of modern air defence systems – man-portable and mobile – which have taken their toll on the Russian Air Force.
However, the Russians can operate over southeast Ukraine with relative impunity and are supporting their land colleagues with a selection of glide munitions that enable the Russian fighters to remain a safe distance from the Ukrainian air defence systems.
It appears that the Russians have neither the training nor expertise to conduct effective close air support.
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Sean Bell on ‘sobering’ battles in Ukraine
Delivering explosive ordnance close to friendly forces is a challenging task, especially for fighters travelling at 1,000ft a second.
The difference between friendly and enemy is often a fraction of a second’s flying time, and thus the risk of fratricide is high.
If the Russian pilots were better trained, the results for Ukraine could be devastating.
Regardless, this is a very high-risk operation for Ukraine, sending inexperienced new recruits against robust Russian defences, where they will expect to suffer 3x the casualty rate on offence than they have on defence.
So, would the earlier provision of F-16s to Ukraine from the West have made a difference?
In short – no.
Image: F-16 fighter jets. File pic
Ukraine needs modern air power, not a squadron or so of second-hand F-16 platforms that are neither supportable nor credible, against modern, stealthy Russian fighters.
Air power is a complex amalgam of technology, high-tech software, state-of-the-art precision weapons, and a wealth of supporting capabilities – such as airborne warning and control systems (AWACs), surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare.
The Russian Air Force could decimate a small number of autonomous ageing F-16s, thus destroying Ukraine’s fledgling air power capability almost overnight and emboldening the Russian military.
The only credible way to provide Ukraine with the air capability required for this year’s offensive would be for the West to intervene and commit Western assets – and crews – to the conflict.
There is no sign of any international appetite for that level of escalation, despite the critical importance of this Ukrainian offensive.
For now, the Ukrainian military has to take on established Russian defences and without the protective umbrella of air support. That is a tough challenge.
Ukraine appears confident that it can prevail – despite the limited resources at its disposal.
Meanwhile, the West will be hoping it does not come to regret the decision not to provide battle-winning combat air capability to Ukraine.
It was one sentence among the many words Donald Trump spoke this week that caught my attention.
Midway through a jaw-dropping news conference where he sensationally claimed to have “found an answer on autism”, he said: “Bobby (Kennedy) wants to be very careful with what he says, but I’m not so careful with what I say.”
The US president has gone from pushing the envelope to completely unfiltered.
Last Sunday, moments after Charlie Kirk‘s widow Erika had publicly forgiven her husband’s killer, Mr Trump told the congregation at his memorial service that he “hates his opponents”.
Image: President Donald Trump embraces Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika. Pic: AP
The president treats professional disapproval not as a liability but as evidence of authenticity, fuelling the aura that he is a challenger of conventions.
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“I’m really good at this stuff. Your countries are going to hell,” he told his audience, deriding Europe’s approach to immigration as a “failed experiment of open borders”.
Image: Mr Trump addresses the UN General Assembly in New York. Pic: Reuters
Then came a U-turn on Ukraine, suggesting the country could win back all the land it has lost to Russia.
Most politicians would be punished for inconsistency, but Mr Trump recasts this as strategic genius – framing himself as dictating the terms.
It is hard to keep track when his expressed hopes for peace in Ukraine and Gaza are peppered with social media posts condemning the return of Jimmy Kimmel to late-night television.
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2:29
Trump’s major shift in Ukraine policy
Perhaps most striking of all is his reaction to the indictment of James Comey, the FBI director he fired during his first term.
In theory, this should raise questions about the president’s past conflicts with law enforcement, but he frames it as vindication, proof that his enemies fall while he survives.
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Ex-FBI chief: ‘Costs to standing up to Trump’
Mr Trump has spent much of his political career cultivating an image of a man above the normal consequences of politics, law or diplomacy, but he appears to feel more invincible than ever.
Russia has launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine’s capital this morning, injuring at least six people, Kyiv’s military administration has said.
Poland closed the airspace near two of its southeastern cities, Lublin and Rzeszow, as its air force scrambled jets in response to Russia’s attack on Kyiv.
Drones flew over Kyiv and anti-aircraft fire rang out through the night in what independent monitors said was one of the biggest strikes on the city since the Ukraine war began in February 2022.
The attack started at around 6am local time and many regions across the country are under air raid alert.
Some residents have fled to metro stations deep underground for safety as the attack continues.
Poland said it had closed its airspace near the two cities until at least 4am GMT due to “unplanned military activity related to ensuring state security”, flight tracking service Flightradar24 said.
“In connection with the activity of the Russian Federation’s long-range aviation carrying out strikes on the territory of Ukraine, Polish and allied aircraft have begun operating in our airspace,” the military said in a post on X.
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It described the actions as preventive and aimed at securing airspace and protecting citizens.
It comes as Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was expected to address allegations made against Moscow that it has violated the airspace of several of its neighbours in recent weeks, as he spoke in New York at the 80th UN General Assembly.
During his address, Mr Lavrov, who has been Russia’s foreign minister for 21 years, says his country had no intention of attacking any NATO or EU member state but warned of a “decisive response” if any “aggression” was directed towards Moscow.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Vladimir Putin’s top diplomat says Russia has no intention of attacking any NATO or EU member state but warned of a “decisive response” if any “aggression” was directed towards Moscow.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia‘s foreign minister of 21 years, was speaking in New York at the 80th UN General Assembly, where he said threats against his country by Western nations were becoming “increasingly common”.
He was expected to address allegations made against Moscow that it has violated the airspace of several of its neighbours in recent weeks, heightening tensions across Europe.
Romania and Latvia also reported that single Russian drones had violated their airspace this month.
“Threats of force against Russia, accused of practically planning an attack on the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union, are becoming increasingly common,” Mr Lavrov said in New York.
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“President Putin has repeatedly debunked such provocations. Russia has never had and does not have such intentions, but any aggression against my country will be met with a decisive response.”
At the start of the week, US President Donald Trump told the UN that NATO nations should shoot down Russian planes in their airspace.
‘They will regret it’
After his UN address, Mr Lavrov held a news conference, where he insisted again that Moscow “has nothing to hide” over the allegations against it.
He was then asked by US correspondent Mark Stone what the Kremlin’s response would be if a nation shot down a Russian drone or plane in Russian airspace.
“Try to understand that a drone, when it is flying not over our territory, but if it crosses someone’s border but has left our airspace, probably everyone has the right to do with that drone whatever they consider necessary to ensure their security.
“But if there are attempts to shoot down any flying object, or indeed any object at all, on our territory, in our airspace, then I think people will seriously regret it, undertaking such a gross violation of our territorial integrity, our sovereignty.”
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2:11
Watch: Sergei Lavrov answers Sky News question in New York
‘Hypocrisy’ over Gaza comments
At the start of his UN speech, Mr Lavrov took time to criticise Israel’s actions in the Middle East, accusing it of trying to “blow up” the region and saying it had “no justification” for the “brutal killings” of Palestinians in Gaza.
“The illegal use of force against the Palestinians and aggressive actions against Iran, Qatar, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq today threaten to blow up the entire Middle East.”
He also hit out at Israeli plans to annex the West Bank: “There is no justification for plans to annex the West Bank. This is essentially a coup d’etat in diplomatic terms.”
Israel has repeatedly claimed that it does not target civilians in Gaza and says its military actions across the Middle East are strategically vital for its self-defence.
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2:44
Mark Stone reflects on Sergei Lavrov’s UN address
Mark Stone said Mr Lavrov’s comments on Israel’s actions will be seen as highly hypocritical given Russia’s war in Ukraine which began in February 2022.
“Lavrov said Israel is bombing schools, it is bombing hospitals in Gaza,” Stone said.
“Well, remember Mariupol and the rest of those cities in Ukraine, where Russia has and continues to do just the same thing? There’s a certain hypocrisy there, for sure.”