Can Ukraine’s counteroffensive prevail without combat air cover, and will the West come to regret not providing Ukraine with such battle-winning capability?
Although the West has provided a wealth of financial and military support to Ukraine to help combat the illegal invasion of Russian forces, it has been reluctant to provide the modern Western air power that President Zelenskyy clearly needs.
For much of the war in Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has been conspicuous by its absence.
Primarily used to launch long-range missiles at targets all over Ukraine, the Russian fighter jets have found the airspace over Ukraine particularly dangerous, and reports suggest they have lost 10% of their assets in the war to date.
The Russian Air Force has been constrained – to some degree – by the provision of modern Western air defence systems; however, since the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the Russian Air Force has increased dramatically its sortie rate and effectiveness.
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Air superiority is the degree of dominance that permits the conduct of operations by one side and its related land, sea and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by opposing air forces.
Successful land operations without local air superiority are very difficult; even in Afghanistan, just the sound of jet noise sparked panic in the Taliban fighters.
However, Ukraine does not have the air power capability to dominate the skies and is obliged to conduct its much-anticipated counteroffensive without effective air support.
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As an interim measure, the West has provided a comprehensive suite of modern air defence systems – man-portable and mobile – which have taken their toll on the Russian Air Force.
However, the Russians can operate over southeast Ukraine with relative impunity and are supporting their land colleagues with a selection of glide munitions that enable the Russian fighters to remain a safe distance from the Ukrainian air defence systems.
It appears that the Russians have neither the training nor expertise to conduct effective close air support.
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Delivering explosive ordnance close to friendly forces is a challenging task, especially for fighters travelling at 1,000ft a second.
The difference between friendly and enemy is often a fraction of a second’s flying time, and thus the risk of fratricide is high.
If the Russian pilots were better trained, the results for Ukraine could be devastating.
Regardless, this is a very high-risk operation for Ukraine, sending inexperienced new recruits against robust Russian defences, where they will expect to suffer 3x the casualty rate on offence than they have on defence.
So, would the earlier provision of F-16s to Ukraine from the West have made a difference?
In short – no.
Image: F-16 fighter jets. File pic
Ukraine needs modern air power, not a squadron or so of second-hand F-16 platforms that are neither supportable nor credible, against modern, stealthy Russian fighters.
Air power is a complex amalgam of technology, high-tech software, state-of-the-art precision weapons, and a wealth of supporting capabilities – such as airborne warning and control systems (AWACs), surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare.
The Russian Air Force could decimate a small number of autonomous ageing F-16s, thus destroying Ukraine’s fledgling air power capability almost overnight and emboldening the Russian military.
The only credible way to provide Ukraine with the air capability required for this year’s offensive would be for the West to intervene and commit Western assets – and crews – to the conflict.
There is no sign of any international appetite for that level of escalation, despite the critical importance of this Ukrainian offensive.
For now, the Ukrainian military has to take on established Russian defences and without the protective umbrella of air support. That is a tough challenge.
Ukraine appears confident that it can prevail – despite the limited resources at its disposal.
Meanwhile, the West will be hoping it does not come to regret the decision not to provide battle-winning combat air capability to Ukraine.
The wife of murdered Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi says “zero justice” has been served over her husband’s death.
Mr Khashoggi, a strident critic of the kingdom, was slain by Saudi agents in an operation in Istanbul in 2018, and American intelligence agencies concluded Mohammed bin Salman had ordered his capture or killing.
The crown prince has denied ordering the operation, but acknowledged responsibility as Riyadh’s de-facto ruler.
He was hosted at the White House on Tuesday for the first time in seven years, and Donald Trump defended him and cast doubt upon his own country’s assessments.
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Saudi leader asked about murdered journalist
Mr Trump derided Mr Khashoggi as “extremely controversial” and said “a lot of people didn’t like that gentleman”.
Hanan Khashoggi told Sky News’ The World With Yalda Hakim she was “disappointed” by the remarks, as she demanded compensation from the crown prince.
He has described the killing of her husband as a “huge mistake”.
Addressing Mr Trump directly, Ms Khashoggi said she would be willing to meet the US president to tell him about the Washington Post writer, who she said was “a great man, and a professional, and he was a brave man as well”.
Image: A vigil for Khashoggi outside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, where he was killed. Pic: Reuters
‘They destroyed my life’
Ms Khashoggi said her husband was not controversial or unlikeable – but even if he was, “it doesn’t justify the action of kidnapping him, torturing him, killing him and dismantling his body”.
She also said she would meet the crown prince and “ask him to retrieve Jamal’s body, so I can bury him in a decent, good way”, as well as ask for financial compensation.
“They killed my husband, they destroyed my life,” she added. “They have to compensate me.”
Image: Hanan Khashoggi
Trump defends MBS
Asked about the murder in the Oval Office, Mr Trump said: “Whether you like him or didn’t like him, things happen.
“But he (Bin Salman) knew nothing about it, and we can leave it at that.
“You don’t have to embarrass our guest by asking a question like that.”
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The prince and president: What happened?
Mr Trump even celebrated the Saudi leader for the kingdom’s human rights record, without providing specific details.
“I’m very proud of the job he’s done,” he said.
Human rights groups say Saudi authorities continue to harshly repress dissent by arresting human rights defenders, journalists and political dissidents.
They also highlight a surge in executions in Saudi Arabia they connect to an effort to suppress internal dissent.
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2:01
Security minister accuses China of interference
That case against two British men accused of spying for Beijing fell apart because officials would not use the words “enemy” or “national security threat” to describe China.
The failure projected a sense of weakness in the face of Chinese espionage efforts, something the government is keen to dispel.
Image: (L-R) Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry had the charges against them withdrawn in September. Pics: Reuters
Those efforts remain persistent and dangerous, security officials insist.
China has always aggressively sought the official and commercial secrets of Western nations.
It regards that mission as a patriotic duty, an essential part of a national project to catch up with and then overtake the West.
In the words of Britain’s security minister, Dan Jarvis, on Tuesday, China seeks “to interfere in our sovereign affairs in favour of its own interests”.
Indeed, much of China’s technological and economic progress was, until recently, built on intellectual property stolen from rival nations.
Its private sector has been notorious for ripping off and reverse engineering Western know-how, pilfered from joint venture partners or through commercial espionage.
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Intelligence agencies say the Chinese have also hoovered up vast amounts of personal data from all of us through social media platforms like TikTok and other methods, collecting in bulk for now, for sifting and harvesting later.
Officially, the Chinese government denies all these allegations. It has to be said that Western spies are also hard at work snooping on China.
But critics say Western nations have been naive and too trusting of the Chinese threat.
While the British government remains unsure whether to identify China as an enemy or simply a commercial rival, an ambivalence remains, which Beijing will continue doing its best to exploit.
Mass killings and millions forced to flee for their lives have made Sudan the “epicentre of suffering in the world”, according to the UN’s humanitarian affairs chief.
About 12 million people are believed to have been displaced and at least 40,000 killed in the civil war – but aid groups say the true death toll could be far greater.
Tom Fletcher, the UN’s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, told Sky’s The World With Yalda Hakim the situation was “horrifying”.
“It’s utterly grim right now – it’s the epicentre of suffering in the world,” he said of Sudan.
The war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – who were once allies – started in Khartoum in April 2023 but has spread across the country.
Image: A child receives treatment at a camp in Tawila after fleeing Al Fashir . Pic: AP
The fighting has inflicted almost unimaginable misery on a nation that was already suffering a humanitarian crisis.
Famine has been declared in some areas and Mr Fletcher said there was a “sense of rampant brutality and impunity” in the east African nation.
“I spoke to so many people who told me stories of mass executions, mass rape, sexual violence being weaponised as part of the conflict,” he said.
The fall of a key city
Last month, the RSF captured Al Fashir – the capital of North Darfur state – after a siege of more than 18 months.
Hundreds have been killed and tens of thousands forced to flee, according to the UN and aid groups.
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Explained: Key Sudan city falls
The World Health Organisation said more than 450 people alone were reportedly killed at a maternity hospital in the city.
RSF fighters also went house to house to murder civilians and carried out sexual assault and rape, according to aid workers and displaced people.
The journey to escape Al Fashir goes through areas with no access to food, water or medical help – and Mr Fletcher said people had described to him the “horrors” of trying to make it out.
“One woman [was] carrying her dead neighbour’s malnourished child – and then she herself was attacked on the road as she fled towards Tawila,” he told Sky News.
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“We’ve got to make sure there are teams going in to investigate these atrocities. Al Fashir is a crime scene right now,” he said.
“But we’ve also got to make sure we’ve got protection for civilians from the future atrocities.”
Children at the forefront of suffering
Mr Fletcher told Yalda Hakim that children had “borne the brunt” and made up one in five of those killed in Al Fashir.
He said a child he met “recoiled from me” and “flinched” when he gestured towards a Manchester City logo on his shirt when they were kicking a ball around.
“This is a six-year-old, so what has he seen and experienced to be that terrified of other people?” he asked.
He’s urging the international community to boost funding to help civilians, and a “much more vigorous, energised diplomacy” to try to end the fighting.
“This can’t be so complex, so difficult, that the world can’t fix it,” he told Sky News.
“And we’ve seen some momentum. We’ve seen the quad – Egypt, America, Saudi, the UAE just recently – getting more engaged.
“I’m in daily contact with them all, including the White House envoy, Dr Massad Boulos, but we need to sustain that diplomatic engagement and show the creativity and patience that’s needed.”