Can Ukraine’s counteroffensive prevail without combat air cover, and will the West come to regret not providing Ukraine with such battle-winning capability?
Although the West has provided a wealth of financial and military support to Ukraine to help combat the illegal invasion of Russian forces, it has been reluctant to provide the modern Western air power that President Zelenskyy clearly needs.
For much of the war in Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has been conspicuous by its absence.
Primarily used to launch long-range missiles at targets all over Ukraine, the Russian fighter jets have found the airspace over Ukraine particularly dangerous, and reports suggest they have lost 10% of their assets in the war to date.
The Russian Air Force has been constrained – to some degree – by the provision of modern Western air defence systems; however, since the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the Russian Air Force has increased dramatically its sortie rate and effectiveness.
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Air superiority is the degree of dominance that permits the conduct of operations by one side and its related land, sea and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by opposing air forces.
Successful land operations without local air superiority are very difficult; even in Afghanistan, just the sound of jet noise sparked panic in the Taliban fighters.
However, Ukraine does not have the air power capability to dominate the skies and is obliged to conduct its much-anticipated counteroffensive without effective air support.
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As an interim measure, the West has provided a comprehensive suite of modern air defence systems – man-portable and mobile – which have taken their toll on the Russian Air Force.
However, the Russians can operate over southeast Ukraine with relative impunity and are supporting their land colleagues with a selection of glide munitions that enable the Russian fighters to remain a safe distance from the Ukrainian air defence systems.
It appears that the Russians have neither the training nor expertise to conduct effective close air support.
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Sean Bell on ‘sobering’ battles in Ukraine
Delivering explosive ordnance close to friendly forces is a challenging task, especially for fighters travelling at 1,000ft a second.
The difference between friendly and enemy is often a fraction of a second’s flying time, and thus the risk of fratricide is high.
If the Russian pilots were better trained, the results for Ukraine could be devastating.
Regardless, this is a very high-risk operation for Ukraine, sending inexperienced new recruits against robust Russian defences, where they will expect to suffer 3x the casualty rate on offence than they have on defence.
So, would the earlier provision of F-16s to Ukraine from the West have made a difference?
In short – no.
Image: F-16 fighter jets. File pic
Ukraine needs modern air power, not a squadron or so of second-hand F-16 platforms that are neither supportable nor credible, against modern, stealthy Russian fighters.
Air power is a complex amalgam of technology, high-tech software, state-of-the-art precision weapons, and a wealth of supporting capabilities – such as airborne warning and control systems (AWACs), surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare.
The Russian Air Force could decimate a small number of autonomous ageing F-16s, thus destroying Ukraine’s fledgling air power capability almost overnight and emboldening the Russian military.
The only credible way to provide Ukraine with the air capability required for this year’s offensive would be for the West to intervene and commit Western assets – and crews – to the conflict.
There is no sign of any international appetite for that level of escalation, despite the critical importance of this Ukrainian offensive.
For now, the Ukrainian military has to take on established Russian defences and without the protective umbrella of air support. That is a tough challenge.
Ukraine appears confident that it can prevail – despite the limited resources at its disposal.
Meanwhile, the West will be hoping it does not come to regret the decision not to provide battle-winning combat air capability to Ukraine.
The White House has unveiled its peace plan for Gaza – which includes a senior role for Sir Tony Blair.
The 20-point plan was released by the US government just minutes before Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu held a joint news conference on Monday evening.
The plan states that if the fighting ends, Gaza will be placed under the control of a transitional government headed by Mr Trump and others, including former British prime minister Sir Tony.
The president described him as a “good man”, while the ex-Labour leader commended the “bold” plan.
It says Gaza will “be a deradicalised terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbours”, with no role for Hamas in its future governance, and will be “redeveloped for the benefit of” its people.
It also says nobody will be forced to leave Gaza and states there will be increased aid to the enclave. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza, it says.
The remaining Israeli hostages being held by Hamas must be released within 72 hours, the plan states. It says this will be followed by Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners.
Image: Tony Blair will have a big role in governing Gaza, if Trump’s plan goes ahead. File pic: Reuters
Speaking at the White House, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said to Mr Trump: “I support your plan to end the war in Gaza which achieves our war aims.”
“It will bring back to Israel all our hostages, dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities and its political rule, and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel,” he said.
Hamas said on Monday evening it only received the peace plan after it was unveiled at the White House.
It has said it cannot sign up to anything that does not include Palestinian self-determination, and has dismissed any disarmament so long as Israeli occupation of Gaza continues.
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Analysis: Will Trump’s Gaza peace plan work?
Sir Keir Starmer said the initiative is “profoundly welcome” and he is “grateful” for Mr Trump’s leadership.
“We strongly support his efforts to end the fighting, release the hostages and ensure the provision of urgent humanitarian assistance for the people of Gaza,” said the British prime minister.
“This is our top priority and should happen immediately.”
“The world stands with the US and Israel in their efforts to end the war,” it said.
“Labour stands with Hamas. It is a disgrace for Britain that this is the party in power.”
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2:58
Trump envoy Witkoff ‘hopeful’ on Gaza plan
Blair ‘a good man’, says Trump
The US president singled out Sir Tony for praise, labelling him a “good man” as he named him one of the political figures who would be on Gaza’s transitional governing body.
Mr Trump said “leaders that are very distinguished” would be on the board, adding: “And one of the people that wants to be on the board is the UK former prime minister Tony Blair. Good man, very good man. And some others.”
Mr Trump said the body will be called the “Board of Peace”, with other members to be named in the coming days.
Sir Tony attended a meeting with Mr Trump and others to discuss the future of Gaza in August.
Blair has been one of the “key architects” of the peace plan, including visiting the White House in recent months.
His history in the Middle East – the invasion of Iraq in 2003 – hangs over him, but the former PM does have experience in the area.
Going back to the 1990s, nearly 30 years ago, he was involved in talks with PLO leader Yasser Arafat and others to try to bring peace to the Middle East.
When he left Number 10 in 2007, he became a Middle East envoy for what was known as the quartet – the EU, US, Russia and the United Nations.
He gets on well with Benjamin Netanyahu – that’s another crucial factor.
While many in Labour will not be happy with Blair’s involvement, it is clear to see why the likes of Netanyahu and Trump will approve of it.
This is because Blair is an experienced negotiator and power broker in the region.
Think back to the Good Friday Agreement, his role in Kosovo and Sierra Leone – he’s always wanted to tackle these seemingly intractable international problems.
After resigning as prime minister in 2007, Sir Tony was appointed as the international community’s special envoy to the Middle East with the goal of helping develop the Palestinian economy and institutions in order to prepare the groundwork for a Palestinian state.
However, he struggled to deliver dramatic changes in the role and resigned in 2015.
In a statement issued after the White House’s announcement, Sir Tony said the US plan is “bold and intelligent”.
“It offers us the best chance of ending two years of war, misery, and suffering and I thank President Trump for his leadership, determination and commitment,” he said.
World leaders welcome Trump’s plan
In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Egypt welcomed the plan.
The ministers – along with their counterparts from Pakistan, Turkey, and Indonesia – said they were ready to cooperate positively with the US and other relevant parties.
Moldova’s pro-EU party seems to have secured a strong win against its Russia-leaning rival in what has been described as the most consequential election since the country’s independence.
With more than 99% of votes counted, Moldova’s ruling party, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), had a share of 49.99%, versus 24.28% for the Patriotic Bloc, which opposes closer ties with Brussels.
Holding a majority in the 101-seat chamber would allow PAS to keep pushing for its goal of joining the EU.
If it falls short, it will have to try to form a coalition with smaller parties.
The Patriotic Bloc aims to win power and steer the nation – a former Soviet republic – away from closer ties with Brussels and the EU.
Moldova’s pro-Western president Maia Sandu, who wants the country to join the EU by 2030, reiterated long-held claims that Russia has interfered with elections.
Image: Moldova’s President Maia Sandu casts her vote during parliamentary election, in Chisinau, Moldova. Pic: AP
After casting her ballot, she said: “Russia poses a danger to our democracies. Our democracy is young and fragile, but that does not mean that states with longer democracies are not in danger.
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“We want to live in a democracy.”
In the build up to the election, Prime Minister Dorin Recean warned that Russia was spending “hundreds of millions” of euros as part of an alleged hybrid war to try to seize power, which he described as “the final battle for our country’s future”.
PAS leaders, including the party’s leader Igor Grosu, have called vote the most consequential in Moldova since independence.
Image: Igor Grosu, president of Moldova’s parliament and leader of the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity speaks to the media.
Pic: AP
Moscow has always denied meddling and says the government is spreading anti-Russian hysteria to win votes.
Election day itself was marked by a string of incidents, ranging from bomb threats at multiple polling stations abroad to cyber attacks on electoral and government infrastructure.
Police also detained three people suspected of plotting to cause unrest after the vote.
French President Emmanuel Macron hailed the apparent results of the elections as he said on X: “Despite attempts at interference and pressure, the choice of Moldovan citizens has been strongly affirmed.
“France stands alongside Moldova in its European project and its drive for freedom and sovereignty.”
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “Moldova, you’ve done it again.”
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Moldova is landlocked between Ukraine and Romania.
The country of about 2.5 million people has spent recent years on a Westward path and gained candidate status to the EU in 2022, shortly after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
If Moldova becomes a permanent EU member, it would mean a distancing from Moscow, as the EU has offered support to Ukraine and has put various sanctions in place against Russia.
However, candidate status does not guarantee a country membership to the EU.
In order for a country to become a full member, candidates must adopt democratic norms and undertake reforms to meet EU rules, regulations and standards.
All EU governments then have to agree before that country can be admitted as an EU member.
The brutality of Russia’s drone assaults on Ukraine’s towns and cities shows no let up.
“Savage strikes, a deliberate targeted terror” is how the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the latest overnight bombardment.
Some 595 attack drones and 48 missiles were involved and even if only a small fraction made it through Ukrainian air defences, the destruction – in Sumy and Odessa, Zaporizhia and Kyiv – is significant.
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2:57
Russia strikes Kyiv in major attack
Also overnight, Denmark reported yet more drone sightings.
It has not named Russia directly but after a week in which unidentified drones have resulted in the temporary shutdown of military and civilian airports, it is banning all civil drone flights and describing the threat as a hybrid attack.
Germany is also raising the alarm over unexplained drone activity along its border with Denmark.
Germany’s interior minister said on Saturday: “We are witnessing an arms race, an arms race between drone threats and drone defences. It is a race we cannot afford to lose.”
NATO is having to deploy extra assets to beef up its Baltic Sea defences and its Eastern flank.
European nations are working to establish a drone wall along their borders with Russia and Ukraine.
Germany is setting up a drone defence centre to make sure it has what it needs to protect itself.
The Kremlin is forcing NATO to divert assets to protect its airspace and sub-sea infrastructure at a time when Europe is trying to work out how best to support and finance Ukraine.
With drones an inexpensive element of its hybrid warfare arsenal, Russia is sending a clear warning that it can relatively easily chip away at Europe’s defences and that Europe had better focus on protecting itself.
“If NATO begins to look too rattled, that actually is encouragement for Putin precisely to step up the pressure,” says Mark Galeotti, a specialist in Russian security. “So really we need to be holding our nerve.
“Yes, reserving the right to shoot things down that look like direct threats, but otherwise actually talking down, not talking up, the nature of the threat while of course we arm so that we are even more prepared.”
Last week, Estonia said its fighter jets had escorted three Russian MIG fighter jets out of their airspace after a 12-minute incursion, which Russia denies ever took place.
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3:24
Russia denies violating Estonia airspace amid NATO outrage
On Saturday, Estonia pledged €10m (£8.7m) to NATO’s “Prioritised Ukraine Requirement List” or PURL programme, which sees US-produced weapons, paid for by NATO’s European partners, fast-tracked to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy posted on Sunday after speaking with the NATO secretary general that PURL is moving forward well. And that is just what Russia is trying to prevent.