There is by now a degree of predictability to Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s outbursts.
Cause maximum outrage, swear a lot, declare that this is the point of no return and then, somewhat miraculously, settle with the warring party which is invariably Russia’sMinistry of Defence.
Thus it was in the fight over ammunition, when Prigozhindeclared his forces ready to quit the battle for Bakhmut unless he was given the ammunition he needed.
This past week he has been railing against signing a contract to bring his forces under the direct control of Russia’s armed forces.
On Friday, after comments from Vladimir Putin that signing was mandatory, Prigozhin arrived in Moscow with a contract of his own which, in effect, tries to formalise Wagner as an equivalent but separate military force to the Russian army.
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Image: Prigozhin has been extremely careful not to criticise the Russian president directly
He wants a guaranteed supply of weapons and ammunition, the personal participation of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in all Wagner meetings and a Wagner representative to serve as Shoigu’s deputy.
He also wants criminal investigations of commanders he deems responsible for the deaths of Wagner troops because of a lack of kit.
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It is unlikely Shoigu – or indeed Putin – will agree to any of that.
The stand-off continues.
Prigozhin likes to aim high but this may be an act of desperation as he recognises his influence is on the wane.
“Just before the Ukrainian counteroffensive there was this idea that Wagner was the only really capable military unit on the Russian side,” said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian journalist and expert on the country’s security services.
“Now we see Wagner is not playing a really big role in the counteroffensive, the Russian army is getting more prominent and people aren’t talking about Prigozhin as much as we did just a month ago.”
Divide and rule is the Russian president’s modus operandi.
Play Prigozhin off against Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader (who has signed the army contract); play Prigozhin off against the Russian Ministry of Defence to make sure no one gets ideas too big for their station.
But Prigozhin has been extremely careful, barring one possible slip which he was quick to correct, not to criticise the Russian president directly.
“He is a product of the Kremlin,” said Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre.
“He can be against part of the elite but at the same time, if he were against Putin, he would disappear overnight.”
Disappear not in the sense of assassination, more an assimilation into the bureaucracy that Prigozhin loves to hate.
Image: Vladimir Putin has played off Yevgeny Prigozhin, centre, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, left
Prigozhin understands what’s needed of him in the Putin system, whether that is by way of internet trolls, mercenaries pushing through the Kremlin’s agenda in far-flung corners of the world or setting the precedent for convict-based cannon-fodder.
Recently he has been touring the Russian region, talking all about the need for further mobilisation, both militarily and economically.
Knowing the state of the battlefield better than most, he may recognise that Putin will be forced to call for another round of mobilisation in the not too distant future.
Either way, seeding the idea can’t hurt.
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Ukrainian village’s ’28 days in hell’
“This is a kind of ‘meet the people’ for Prigozhin, should the political technologists in the Kremlin decide that it’s worth having him as head of an ultra-patriotic political party,” said Mark Galeotti, security analyst and director of Mayak Intelligence.
“He realises that his role in charge of Wagner, or at least Wagner in Ukraine, is beginning to come to an end, that Shoigu is not going to let him continue as before.”
Shoigu is clearly more wily than Prigozhin gives him credit for.
The ball is now in his court.
Image: Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu. Pic: AP
What is noticeable is how small a role the commander-in-chief has been playing in all the back-and-forth between Wagner and the defence ministry, wary of destabilising things with the Ukrainian counteroffensive underway.
If Prigozhin is the kid screaming in the playground, (a very dangerous one at that), then Putin is the rabbit caught in the headlights.
“Putin at the moment has been doing everything he can to avoid making tough decisions,” said Mr Galeotti.
“To actually deal with Prigozhin would be a tough decision and when he’s faced with a tough decision, Putin tries to duck it.
“He hopes it’ll go away and then eventually, if he has to make it, he tends to make it badly and late.”
The brutality of Russia’s drone assaults on Ukraine’s towns and cities shows no let up.
“Savage strikes, a deliberate targeted terror” is how the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the latest overnight bombardment.
Some 595 attack drones and 48 missiles were involved and even if only a small fraction made it through Ukrainian air defences, the destruction – in Sumy and Odessa, Zaporizhia and Kyiv – is significant.
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2:57
Russia strikes Kyiv in major attack
Also overnight, Denmark reported yet more drone sightings.
It has not named Russia directly but after a week in which unidentified drones have resulted in the temporary shutdown of military and civilian airports, it is banning all civil drone flights and describing the threat as a hybrid attack.
Germany is also raising the alarm over unexplained drone activity along its border with Denmark.
Germany’s interior minister said on Saturday: “We are witnessing an arms race, an arms race between drone threats and drone defences. It is a race we cannot afford to lose.”
NATO is having to deploy extra assets to beef up its Baltic Sea defences and its Eastern flank.
European nations are working to establish a drone wall along their borders with Russia and Ukraine.
Germany is setting up a drone defence centre to make sure it has what it needs to protect itself.
The Kremlin is forcing NATO to divert assets to protect its airspace and sub-sea infrastructure at a time when Europe is trying to work out how best to support and finance Ukraine.
With drones an inexpensive element of its hybrid warfare arsenal, Russia is sending a clear warning that it can relatively easily chip away at Europe’s defences and that Europe had better focus on protecting itself.
“If NATO begins to look too rattled, that actually is encouragement for Putin precisely to step up the pressure,” says Mark Galeotti, a specialist in Russian security. “So really we need to be holding our nerve.
“Yes, reserving the right to shoot things down that look like direct threats, but otherwise actually talking down, not talking up, the nature of the threat while of course we arm so that we are even more prepared.”
Last week, Estonia said its fighter jets had escorted three Russian MIG fighter jets out of their airspace after a 12-minute incursion, which Russia denies ever took place.
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3:24
Russia denies violating Estonia airspace amid NATO outrage
On Saturday, Estonia pledged €10m (£8.7m) to NATO’s “Prioritised Ukraine Requirement List” or PURL programme, which sees US-produced weapons, paid for by NATO’s European partners, fast-tracked to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy posted on Sunday after speaking with the NATO secretary general that PURL is moving forward well. And that is just what Russia is trying to prevent.
Hamas’s armed group has claimed it has lost contact with two hostages as a result of Israel’s operations in Gaza – after it called on air deployments to be stopped for 24 hours.
In a statement, Hamas’s armed al-Qassam Brigades said it had demanded that Israel halt air sorties for 24 hours, starting at 6pm, in part of Gaza City, to remove the hostages from danger.
It comes a day before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet US President Donald Trump and as the number of those killed in Gaza surpasses the 66,000 mark, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run health ministry.
Its figure does not differentiate between civilians and fighters.
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Volunteer nurse’s video diary of Gaza horrors
A total of 48 hostages are still being held captive by Hamas, the militant group which rules Gaza, with about 20 believed by Israel to still be alive. A total of 251 hostages were taken on 7 October 2023, when Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on Israel which killed 1,200 people.
Situation on the ground
In Gaza, a war-torn enclave where famine has been declared in some areas and where Israel has been accused of committing acts of genocide – which it has repeatedly denied – the almost two-year war raged on.
On Sunday, the number of those killed rose to at least 21 as five people were killed in an airstrike in the Al Naser area, local health authorities said, while medics reported 16 more deaths in strikes on houses in central Gaza.
The Civil Emergency Service in Gaza said late on Saturday that Israel had denied 73 requests, sent via international organisations, to rescue injured Palestinians in Gaza City.
Israeli authorities had no immediate comment. The military earlier said forces were expanding operations in the city and that five militants firing an anti-tank missile towards Israeli troops had been killed by the Israeli air force.
In Monday’s White House meeting, President Trump is expected to share a new 21-point proposal for an immediate ceasefire.
His proposal would include the release of all hostages within 48 hours and a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Palestinian enclave, according to three Arab officials briefed on the plan, the PA news agency reports.
A Hamas official said the group was briefed on the plan but has yet to receive an official offer from Egyptian and Qatari mediators. Hamas has said it is ready to “study any proposals positively and responsibly”.
Mr Trump, who has been one of Israel’s greatest allies, said on Sunday there is “a real chance for greatness in the Middle East”.
It is unclear, however, what Mr Trump was specifically referring to.
He said in a Truth Social post: “We have a real chance for Greatness in the Middle East. All are on board for something special, first time ever. We will get it done.”
On Friday – the same day a video of diplomats walking out on Mr Netanyahu during his address to the United Nations went viral – Mr Trump said he believed the US had reached a deal on easing fighting in Gaza, saying it “will get the hostages back” and “end the war”.
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1:08
Diplomats walk out as Israeli PM speaks at UN
“I think we maybe have a deal on Gaza, very close to a deal on Gaza,” the US president told reporters on the White House lawn as he was leaving to attend the Ryder Cup.
Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed an agreement to end the war was imminent, only for nothing to materialise.
Weeks ago, he said: “I think we’re going to have a deal on Gaza very soon.”
It was one sentence among the many words Donald Trump spoke this week that caught my attention.
Midway through a jaw-dropping news conference where he sensationally claimed to have “found an answer on autism”, he said: “Bobby (Kennedy) wants to be very careful with what he says, but I’m not so careful with what I say.”
The US president has gone from pushing the envelope to completely unfiltered.
Last Sunday, moments after Charlie Kirk‘s widow Erika had publicly forgiven her husband’s killer, Mr Trump told the congregation at his memorial service that he “hates his opponents”.
Image: President Donald Trump embraces Charlie Kirk’s widow Erika. Pic: AP
The president treats professional disapproval not as a liability but as evidence of authenticity, fuelling the aura that he is a challenger of conventions.
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“I’m really good at this stuff. Your countries are going to hell,” he told his audience, deriding Europe’s approach to immigration as a “failed experiment of open borders”.
Image: Mr Trump addresses the UN General Assembly in New York. Pic: Reuters
Then came a U-turn on Ukraine, suggesting the country could win back all the land it has lost to Russia.
Most politicians would be punished for inconsistency, but Mr Trump recasts this as strategic genius – framing himself as dictating the terms.
It is hard to keep track when his expressed hopes for peace in Ukraine and Gaza are peppered with social media posts condemning the return of Jimmy Kimmel to late-night television.
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2:29
Trump’s major shift in Ukraine policy
Perhaps most striking of all is his reaction to the indictment of James Comey, the FBI director he fired during his first term.
In theory, this should raise questions about the president’s past conflicts with law enforcement, but he frames it as vindication, proof that his enemies fall while he survives.
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0:49
Ex-FBI chief: ‘Costs to standing up to Trump’
Mr Trump has spent much of his political career cultivating an image of a man above the normal consequences of politics, law or diplomacy, but he appears to feel more invincible than ever.